Michigan State Senate: What Could Be Done

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Saturday January 19, 2013 · 10:42 PM PST

2013/01/19 · 22:42

One of the most vexing things about swing states like Ohio and Florida and light blue states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is the ability of Republicans to control state legislatures, particularly the Senate in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Recently there was some discussion as to whether a commission drawn map of Michigan could result in a Democratic majority in the Senate. So I decided to give it a try and found out that it is indeed possible for Dems to take the Senate, leading me to conclude that it would be wise for Michigan Dems to try and bring in a commission drawn process. While I do not know much in depth about Michigan politics, I did look at the 2002 map, the 2012 map, and the Democratic proposal to get a sense of how the districts have traditionally been put together. Additionally, while this map is a bit optimistic at times, I submit that a commission drawn map would net us a least a couple of seats from Kent, Oakland, and Macomb counties and would be much better than the status quo. In certain districts I did a rough calculation of the Obama/Romney two party vote.

So lets get started:

Wayne County:

District 1 (Blue): 78.7 Obama 08, 66.2 Avg (Average of 2006 Races), 53.1 African American Voting Age Percentage, Population Deviation (can be no greater than 13,004): -5,281
Safe Dem

District 2 (Green): 77.2 Obama 08, 68.2 Avg, 50.8 AA VAP, Pop: -4,713 Safe Dem

District 3 (Purple): 81.1 Obama 08, 73.7 Avg, 51.6 AA VAP, Pop: -193 Safe Dem

District 4 (Red): 82.6 Obama 08, 72.2 Avg, 51.2 AA VAP, Pop: -8,633 Safe Dem

District 5 (Gold): 78.6 Obama 08, 69.1 Avg, 50.6 AA VAP, Pop: 5,361 Safe Dem

District 6 (Teal-Romulus, South Wayne): 61.4 Obama 08, 51.8 Avg, Pop: 6,942, Likely Dem

District 7 (Gray-Livonia, NW Wanye): 53.8 Obama 08, 43.4 Avg, 52.28 Obama 2012, Pop: 6,429 Lean GOP

While Districts 1-5 are messy, that is required in order to get 5 majority AA Senate districts entirely in Wayne County. Probably in 2020 there could only be 4 in Wayne to be supplmented by perhaps one in Oakland. But in both the Dem map and the actual one, Detroit is split up.
District 6 should be fine with Romulus providing a solid base. While District 7 was won by Obama in 08 and by my calculations in 2012, Republicans tend to do better down ticket, so I rated it as Lean R but definitely a district a Dem could win.

Metro Detroit:

District 8 (Slate Blue-Outer Oakland and Macomb):
46.4 Obama 08, 36.9 Avg, Pop -1,472: Safe GOP

District 9 (Cyan-Southwest Macomb):
56.3 Obama 08, 50.3 Avg, 56.65 Obama 2012, Pop 11,916: Likely Dem

District 10 (Pink-Southeast Macomb):
57.9 Obama 08, 50.8 Avg, 58.24 Obama 2012, Pop 7,018: Likely Dem

District 11 (Chartreuse-Pontiac, Southfield):
73.3 Obama, 08, 63 Avg, Pop -7,145, 42.4 AA VAP: Safe Dem

District 13 (Tan-Southeast Oakland):
58.2 Obama 08, 46.2 Avg, 56.16 Obama 2012, Pop -201: Lean Dem

District 14 (Olive-Outer Macomb, Port Huron):
48.9 Obama, 40.6 Avg, Pop 4,213: Safe GOP

District 15 (Orange-Southwest Oakland):
56 Obama 08, 44.4 Avg, 53.16 Obama 2012, Pop 2,860: Tossup/Tilt Dem

District 19 (Yellow-Green, Outer Oakland):
45.8 Obama 08, 35.5 Avg, Pop -8,329: Safe GOP

One of the decisions that I made was to do a series of north-south districts, leading to 5 seats that should be won by Democrats. Additionally, by combining Pontiac with Southfield, one gets a majority-minority district that can be won by an African-American and by 2020 could serve as the basis for a majority AA district. I rated the two districts in Macomb as more secure than the two in Oakland because the Average score indicates that these districts are better for us downticket. Nevertheless, a Democrat should be favored in both the 13th and 15th.

Greater Southeast:

District 12 (Cornflower Blue- Calhoun and Eaton Counties, SW Ingham)
53.3 Obama 08, 45.2 Avg, 50.95 Obama 2012, Pop 6,521: Tossup

District 16 (Light Green-Jackson and Lenawee counties)
50.8 Obama, 40.8 Avg, Pop 44: Likely GOP

District 17 (Light Purple-Ypsilanti, Monroe County)
58.6 Obama 08, 52.8 Avg, Pop -12,487: Likely Dem

District 18 (Yellow-Ann Arbor)
69.7 Obama 08, 59 Avg, Pop -10,893: Safe Dem

District 22 (Brown-Livingston County, Outer Oakland)
43.1 Obama 08, 33.1 Avg, Pop -4,821: Safe GOP

District 23 (Light Blue-Lansing)
67.3 Obama 08, 55.2 Avg, Pop -1,913: Safe Dem

District 24 (Deep Purple-Shiawassee and Western Genesee counties)
57.7 Obama 08, 51.6 Avg, Pop -12,715: Likely Dem

District 25 (Pink-the Thumb)
47.6 Obama 08, 39.6 Avg, Pop 2,628: Safe GOP

District 27 (Seafoam Green-Flint and Eastern Genesee county)
70.2 Obama 08, 62.3 Avg, Pop -11,039: Safe Dem

District 32 (Orange-Saginaw and Bay City)
58.7 Obama, 52.1 Avg, Pop 7,696: Likely Dem

The key districts are 12, 17, and 24. With 12 a tossup district is created between Kalamazoo and Lansing whose partisan leanings match up really well with the country at large. So it would probably be a swing district but might trend out way depending on how Lansing grows. With 17 and 24, I took the remnants of Washtenaw and Genesee, respectively, when done with Ann Arbor and Flint, respectively, and attached them to a nearby county. It just happens that these nearby counties are light blue, leading to 2 seats than are pretty solid Dem. I also merged Saginaw and Bay City to create another solid Dem seat. Additionally, I could maybe see District 16 going our way but we would need a really good year, a good candidate, and incredible turnout from Jackson city.

Lower Michigan and Kent County:

District 20 (Pink-Kalamazoo)
Obama 08 58.6, 48.7 Avg, pop 8,087: Lean Dem

District 21 (Brown-Southern Michigan)
Obama 08 48.5, 40.7 Avg, pop 9,435: Safe GOP

District 26 (Gray-Southeast Michigan)
Obama 08 48.7, 39.4 Avg, pop 2,524: Safe GOP

District 28 (Lilac-Grand Rapids Suburbs)
Obama 08 42.2, 30.8 Avg, pop 576: Safe GOP

District 29 (Light Green-Grand Rapids)
Obama 08 61.2, 47.5 Avg, Obama 2012 59.94, pop 69: Likely Dem

District 30 (Salmon-Ottawa County)
Obama 08 37.3, 26.2 Avg, pop 3,705: Safe GOP

District 31 (Tan-Outer Kent)
Obama 08 44.6, 37.5 Avg, pop 8,109: Safe GOP

District 33 (Blue-Midland)
Obama 08 49.1, 41.9 Avg, pop 7,231: Safe GOP

District 34 (Green-Muskegon and Manistee)
Obama 08 60.3, 49.7 Avg, Obama 2012 55.47, pop -7,900: Likely Dem

District 35 (Purple-Mt. Pleasant, Central Michigan)
Obama 08 50.8, 41.3 Avg, pop 201: Likely GOP

District 36 (Orange-Northeast Michigan)
Obama 08 47.9, 42.4 Avg, pop -3,449: Safe GOP

District 20 could be all within Kalamazoo county, but it needed to take up some population from Van Buren in order to ensure proper population deviation. In any event, this is a district even in its current form that we should not be losing. 34 is another district we should not be losing. Even with Newaygo county in its current form, this district is 54 percent Obama 2012. But in this scenario stretching up to Manistee county, which could be arguable from a communities of interest standpoint, the district is made a little bit more Democratic. But, as I said, we should not be losing 20 and 34, even in their current forms. As for 29, this is a district that would really be helped by a commission. While Grand Rapids is kept whole, it has been diluted by outer Kent. In my map, Grand Rapids and and one inner-suburb, Wyoming, make almost a perfect district population wise, so I put them together. The result is a district that is strongly Democratic. But the challenge with these three districts is mostly ensuring high turnout in the urban areas for midterms, which seems to be why the Average from 06 is so low for these three. Additionally, like District 16, I could see us maybe winning 35, but that would also require perfect circumstances, mostly good turnout from Mt. Pleasant and Central Michigan University.

Upper Peninsula:

District 37 (Blue-Traverse City)
Obama 08 48.1, 40.2 Avg, pop -2,021: Safe GOP

District 38 (Green-Marquette)
Obama 08 52.5, 52.7 Avg, Obama 2012 48.82, pop 1,632: Tossup

District 38 is the only district where the Average is above the Obama percentage. I think this shows that local Democrats do better than the top of the ticket. But this district does seem to be trending away from Dems, demonstrated by the Obama 2012 percentage. Nevertheless, this remains a very winnable district for the right kind of Dem and would be important for attaining a majority.

Overall, this map would produce 20 seats where the Dem would be favored, 16 GOP seats, and 2 tossup seats. Given the overall partisan lean of the state, that does not seem to be unreasonable. However, as I said at the beginning, I do make a couple of optimistic scenarios, specifically with the north-south districting in Oakland and Macomb and my treatment of the 12th, 17th, and 24th districts. However, these districts do not look gerrymandered and a commission map would simply be better than the status quo.

Wisconsin Redistricting: What Could Have Been

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 18, 2012 · 7:48 PM PST

2012/11/18 · 19:48

Looking into the Wisconsin election results, at first blush they were very good. Both Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin won by impressive margins. However, down ballot, the picture is grim. Both Duffy and Ribble won by double digits while we actually lost two State Senate seats and gained little in the Assembly. So while 2012 was pretty good, Wisconsin Dems return to Madison in basically the same shape in the Senate and Assembly with around the same numbers as 2010, with the exception being Jen Schilling in the 32nd SD.

The biggest reason, to me, of this is redistricting. The Republican-drawn maps were absolutely brutal. This lead me to wonder how things could be different, if history changed and Dems kept their trifecta after the 2010 elections. With this in mind, I produced what would be my ideal maps. I have been working on this for awhile, but work obligations kept be busy. These might upset some Democratic incumbents with some new territory, but on the whole these maps could lead to a 7-1 Congressional Delegation (although 6-2 would be more likely) and solid holds of the Senate and Assembly.

So lets get started with the Congressional map:

CD 1 (Blue): Obama (2008 performance) 58.9 Dem 2010 (average of 2010 statewide performance) 51.2

This district changes dramatically to simply include Racine and Kenosha east of I-94 (by and large) and the southern half of Milwaukee county. This includes the Hispanic southside, Milwaukee downtown, and the East Side. With such changes, this becomes a Safe Dem seat that would have been perfect for State Senator Chris Larson or any Kenosha or Racine area official.

CD 2 (Dark Green): Obama 61, Dem 2010 53.7

One of the lynchpins of this map would be to split Madison. This takes the west side of Madison and Dane county and extends to include a lot of reddish rural territory. Still would be Safe Dem. Would have been good for State Senator Jon Erpenbach or State Reps Kelda Roys and Fred Clark. Safe Dem

CD 3 (Purple): Obama 59.1, Dem 2010 49.2

This district sheds Eau Claire and Menomonee to help out other districts, but that is more than made up by adding Rock County and portions of Dane County. This takes in more the Twin Cities exurbs to again help out other districts. Ron Kind or any Dem like State Senator Kathleen Vinehout or state reps Chris Danou (or in my post-2010 scenario) Jen Schilling would make this Safe Dem.

CD 4 (Red): 63.5 Obama, Dem 2010 57.1

The other lynchpin of this map would be to split Milwaukee. Rep Moore would probably not be happy with having to go into Waukesha county, but this was already not a VRA district, this helps out with the 1st, and she keeps her northside African-American base. Nevertheless, she would still have the most Dem district in the state, so Safe Dem.

CD 5 (Yellow): Obama 37.5, Dem 2010 27.8

This district becomes even more Republican by expanding into more exurban regions and dropping its inner suburbs. Sensenbrenner continues to be fine, Safe GOP.

CD 6 (Lime Green): Obama 59.3, Dem 2010 51

This district takes the other portion of Madison and connects it with cities such as Oshkosh, Sheboygan, and Manitowoc. In the process it would become a very Democratic district that would have been great for State Reps Mark Pocan, Andy Jorgensen, or Gordon Hintz.

CD 7 (Orange): Obama 57.1, Dem 2010 47.2

This district becomes a little bit more Dem by adding Eau Claire, Adams, and Dunn Counties and losing some rural areas. In my scenario Duffy would have won but probably would have lost in a rematch with Julie Lassa or to Senators Pat Kreitlow or Russ Decker. Lean Dem

CD 8 (Slate Blue): Obama 54.7, Dem 2010 43.9

This district would be the most difficult to win and to hold and could switch between parties throughout the decade. The addition of Menasha, Neenah, and Rhinelander move the district a little to the left, but it would still be a pretty swingy district. Kagen would have made a good candidate for a rematch. Tossup or maybe Lean GOP

So the result would be a likely 6-2 Delegation and even a 7-1 in good years.

Now for the State Senate and Assembly maps. In Wisconsin, each Senate district is divided into 3 nested Assembly districts. Because I wanted to keep some incumbents in their old numbered districts (for comparing old/new districts) the numbering for the Assembly seats is not perfect:

SD 1, AD 1, 25, 26:

SD 1: 56.5 Obama, 44.9 2010, Tossup
AD 1: 56.4 Obama, 45.7 2010, Tossup
25: 55 Obama, 43.2 2010, Tossup
26: 58.3 Obama, 45.7 2010, Lean Dem

This district brings together a lot of the most Dem parts of the 1st and 9th SDs to create a district that stretches from Sheboygan up to Door County and create another takeover opportunity.

SD 2, AD 5, 6, 89:

SD 2: 48.5 Obama, 36.7 2010, Safe GOP
AD 5: 47.4 Obama, 35.5 2010, Safe GOP
6: 50.3 Obama, 38.4 2010, Likely GOP
89: 48 Obama, 36.4 2010, Safe GOP

Robert Cowles is moved out of the district but this would be safe for any Republican that runs. We might by able to win the 6th if we get really lucky, but it would be a big climb.

SD 3, AD 7, 8, 9:

SD 3: 63.4 Obama, 55.6 2010, 45.8 Hispanic pop, 38.9 VAP, Safe Dem
AD 7: 56.7 Obama, 49.2 2010, 29.9 Hispanic pop, 23.8 VAP, Likely Dem
8: 72.8 Obama, 65.6 2010, 61.3 Hispanic pop, 55.6 VAP, Safe Dem
9. 64.7 Obama, 56.9 2010, 46.1 Hispanic pop, 38.9 VAP, Safe Dem

This Senate district should elect a Hispanic Senator when Carpenter retires and all three of these seats have the potential to elect a Hispanic State Rep. I included some Hispanic areas into the 7th AD to shift it into a much safer district.

SD 4, AD 10, 11, 12:

SD 4: 78.8 Obama, 74.1 2010, 58.8 AA pop, 54.7 AA VAP, Safe Dem
AD 10: 86.4 Obama, 83.5 2010, 65.7 AA pop, 62.1 AA VAP, Safe Dem
AD 11: 72 Obama, 66.2 2010, 54.8 AA pop, 50.6 AA VAP, Safe Dem
AD 12: 78 Obama, 72.9 2010, 55.9 AA pop, 51.3 AA VAP, Safe Dem

This district expands to include some of Waukesha and Ozaukee counties so as to ensure that the 5th SD can be turned into a safe seat, but it would be fine for Lena Taylor.

SD 5, AD 13, 14, 15:

SD 5: 58.5 Obama, 52.5 2010, Safe Dem
AD 13: 56.5 Obama, 52.1 2010, Safe Dem
AD 14: 60.9 Obama, 54.6 2010, Safe Dem
AD 15: 58.6 Obama, 50.6 2010, Safe Dem

This is my home district being born and bred in Wauwatosa. This district moves entirely into Milwaukee county to provide a safe seat for would be Senator Jim Sullivan. Due to population loses and VRA requirements however, I was not able to make both the 5th and 8th better seats. Given in my hypothetical, we would already have an incumbent in the 5th (and since it was my home district), I elected to make the 5th the safe seat.

SD 6, AD 16, 17, 18:

SD 6: 81.2 Obama, 77.5 2010, 60.9 AA pop, 56.7 AA VAP, Safe Dem
AD 16: 89.9 Obama, 90.5 2010, 69.8 AA pop, 63.8 AA VAP, Safe Dem
17: 79.5 Obama, 76.6 2010, 58.6. AA pop, 55.5 AA VAP, Safe Dem
18: 75.5 Obama, 69.9 2010, 54.2 AA pop, 50.7 AA VAP, Safe Dem

Again this district expands into Waukesha to make up for population loses and make the 5th Safe. This still would be safe district for upcoming Senator Nikiya Harris.

SD 7, AD 19, 20, 22:

SD 7: 63 Obama, 59.4 201, Safe Dem
AD 19: 70.7 Obama, 68.4 2010, Safe Dem
20: 57.3 Obama, 53.9 2010, Safe Dem
22: 60.2 Obama, 56.4 2010, Safe Dem

In order to make would-be Senator Lehman's seat safer (as I explain later), Chris Larson supplies the Oak Creek/ South Milwaukee assembly district to Lehman. To make up the population, Larson takes up what is by and large Sandy Pasch's assembly district.

SD 8, AD 21, 23, 24:

SD 8: 34.8 Obama, 26.7 2010, Safe GOP
AD 21: 33.6 Obama, 25.1 2010, Safe GOP (most GOP part of the state, known as Lake Country)
23: 36.2 Obama, 28.6 2010, Safe GOP
24: 34.6 Obama, 26.2 2010, Safe GOP

Since there is not enough populations to make both the 5th and 8th safe, I chose to help out (in my scenario) the incumbent Dem Senator Sullivan and then let the 8th become another Safe GOP suburban/exurban seat.

SD 9, AD 2, 3, 27:

SD 9: 44.4 Obama, 32.1 2010, Safe GOP
AD 2: 48.1 Obama, 34.7 2010, Safe GOP
3: 47.6 Obama, 35.2 2010, Safe GOP
27: 37.8 Obama, 26.8 2010, Safe GOP

SD 10, AD 28, 29, 30:

SD 10: 48.2 Obama, 39.2 2010, Safe GOP
AD 28: 48.5 Obama, 40.9 2010, Likely GOP
29: 47.6 Obama, 37.5 2010, Safe GOP
30: 48.5 Obama, 39 2010, Safe GOP

By shedding River Falls and Menomonee to help out the 23rd/31st, this becomes Safe GOP. Former Rep Ann Hraychuck might be able to win the 28th.

SD 11, AD 31, 32, 33:

SD 11: 41.2 Obama, 29.9 2010, Safe GOP
AD 31: 48.7 Obama, 35 2010, Safe GOP
32: 39.4 Obama, 28.7 2010, Safe GOP
33: 36.7 Obama, 27.7 2010, Safe GOP

SD 12, AD 34, 86, 87:

SD 12: 49.5 Obama, 38.6 2010, Likely GOP
AD 34: 47.9 Obama, 38.6 2010, Safe GOP
86: 48.6 Obama, 38.3 2010, Safe GOP
87: 52.5 Obama, 39 2010, Likely GOP

My rationale for this district is that the 12 and 29th are both very precarious districts that are in a part of the state that seems to be trending away from us. So in my scenario this would be remedied by putting together the best parts of the districts into one, which as discussed below is the 29th. Holperin would probably not be happy with this configuration, but he retired anyway. We might have an outside chance of the 87th AD, but the 2010 numbers suggest that it would be a tough district to win.

SD 13, AD 42, 46, 47:

SD 13: 59.9 Obama, 50.8 2010 Safe Dem
AD 42: 60.3 Obama, 51 2010 Safe Dem
46: 61 Obama, 51.6 2010 Safe Dem
47: 58.1 Obama, 49.7 2010 Likely Dem

This was one of my most favorite districts to create as it essentially creates a new Dem seat based in the Madison suburbs and exurbs. It mashed together some of the best parts of the old 14th and 13th as well as parts of the 16th. Reps Fred Clark or Gary Hebl would be good picks for this district.

SD 14, AD, 38, 40, 41:

SD 14: 45.1 Obama, 34.9 Obama, Safe GOP
38: 51.4 Obama, 40 Obama, Likely GOP
40: 46.3 Obama, 36.1 Obama, Safe GOP
41: 37.7 Obama, 29.3 Obama, Safe GOP

This district mashes together some of the most GOP parts of the old 14th, 13th, and 18th. While Senator Olson is moved out of the district, this would be safe for any Republican.

SD 15, AD 43, 44, 45:

SD 15: 63.1 Obama, 53.2 2010, Safe Dem
43: 60.6 Obama, 50.8 2010, Likely Dem
44: 67 Obama, 58 2010, Safe Dem
45: 61.6 Obama, 50.7 2010, Likely Dem

These Assembly districts should have never gone GOP but the combination of crummy candidates and a good GOP year lead to GOP pickups in not just one, but all three of the Assembly seats in 2010.

SD 16, AD 37, 39, 48:

SD 16: 66.1 Obama, 60.6 2010, Safe Dem
AD 37: 63.9 Obama, 57.6 2010, Safe Dem
AD 39: 60.5 Obama, 52.5 2010, Safe Dem
48: 73.8 Obama, 71 2010, Safe Dem

This district ends up creating a new Dem seat in AD 39.

SD 17, AD 49, 50, 51:

SD 17: 60.6 Obama, 48.7 2010, Likely GOP with Schultz, Likely with D if open
AD 49: 60.8 Obama, 47.1 2010, Tossup/Lean D
50: 58.9 Obama, 49.1 2010, Lean GOP with Brooks, Tossup/Lean D if open
51: 62.1 Obama, 49.9 2010, Tossup/Lean D

These seats have been interesting, in both good and bad ways. Senator Schultz has been a voice of reason in the GOP caucus, but until he retires it would be hard to take this seat. The Assembly seats have been really frustrating. Not only were these seats ones we should not have lost in 2010, but we should have at least taken then 49th and 51st on November 6th. At least with the 50th there is a well-established incumbent. But it just seems that the people in this corner of the state like to split their tickets and/or the GOP candidates are able to appeal to nominally Dem voters. Frankly, these are seats we cannot afford to lose if we want any shot of a majority in the Senate and Assembly.

SD 18, AD 52, 53, 54:

SD 18: 53 Obama, 42.8 2010, Likely R Tossup with King
AD 52: 50.4 Obama, 39.8 2010, Likely GOP
53: 47.7 Obama, 38.3 2010, Safe GOP
54: 61.2 Obama, 51.3 2010, Safe D

One of the most painful results of the 6th was seeing Jess King lose in another close race, losing by around 600 votes, in a repeat of 2008. In my scenario, there would be no recalls (due to Dems retaining the trifecta) so there would have been no recalls. But if King wanted to make it a rematch, she would have been a fierce contender especially if the stuff against Randy Hopper still came to light. Additionally this shifted slightly Dem due to the inclusion of Ripon and rural Winnebago instead of rural Fond du Lac county.

SD 19, AD 55, 56, 57:

SD 19: 58.5 Obama, 49.4 2010, Likely R with Eliis, Likely D if open
AD 55: 59 Obama, 49.3 2010, Likely R with Kaufert, Likely D if open
56: 58 Obama, 49 2010, Likely D
57: 58.6 Obama, 49.9 2010, Safe D

By bringing together all the Fox Valley cities, this becomes a very Democratic Senate seat. Even so, Senator Ellis and Rep. Kaufert are personally popular, so they should be fine but when they retire these seats should be very ripe for the picking.

SD 20, AD 58, 59, 60:

SD 20: 38.3 Obama, 27.5 2010, Safe GOP
AD 58: 41.4 Obama, 29.6 2010, Safe GOP
59: 37.8 Obama, 27 2010, Safe GOP
60: 35.9 Obama, 26.2 2010, Safe GOP

SD 21, AD 61, 62. 63:

SD 21: 58.6 Obama, 49.7 2010, Likely D
AD 61: 50.4 Obama, 42.1 2010, Likely R
62: 64.7 Obama, 55.5 2010, Safe D
63: 61.8 Obama, 53.2 2010, Safe D

As a I mentioned above I swapped some areas to make this a pretty solid seat for Lehman. By exchanging some of the exurban areas of Racine county west of I-94 for Oak Creek and South Milwaukee (which are significantly less GOP) this becomes quite Democratic.

SD 22, AD 64, 65, 66:

SD 22: 57.7 Obama, 47.5 2010, Likely D
AD 64: 64.4 Obama, 55.8 2010, Safe D
65: 61.7 Obama, 52.9 2010, Safe D
66: 47.5 Obama, 36.2 2010, Safe R

SD 23, AD 67, 68, 93:

SD 23: 57.7 Obama, 47.7 2010, Likely D
AD 67: 52.1 Obama, 40.9 2010, Likely GOP
68: 59.9 Obama, 50 2010, Safe D
93: 60.2 Obama, 51.5 2010, Safe D

In my scenario, Senator Kreitlow would have been rewarded with getting the rest of Eau Claire county, as well as losing some reddish rural areas. Both AD 93 and 68 are more seats that we should not have lost, but only lost them by less than 100 votes in 2010 and these districts are just a little bit better. We might be able to get 67 in a good year, but should stay Republican.

SD 24, AD 70, 71, 72:

SD 24: 59 Obama, 48.1 2010, Likely D
AD 70: 58.9 Obama, 47.4 2010, Likely D
71: 60.8 Obama, 50.9 2010, Safe D
72: 57 Obama, 45.8 2010, Lean D

AD 72 was another tough loss in 2010. We just barely lost taking it back in 2012 even though it was made redder. This brings it back to its lean Dem orientation.

SD 25, AD 73, 74, 75:

SD 25: 58.9 Obama, 51.5 2010, Safe D
73: 61.2 Obama, 53.7 2010, Safe D
74: 59.2 Obama, 51 2010, Safe D
75: 56.3 Obama, 50.1 201, Likely D

While the Senate district does not change much, I tried to change the configuration of the Assembly districts to make 75 better. This means trying to include some of the areas by Lake Superior. However, due to population distribution, this spaghetti strips formation results. The reason for the touch-point continuity for AD 73 is that I cannot split the Town of Wascott in southeastern Douglas county.

SD 26, AD 76, 77, 78:

SD 26: 81.2 Obama, 80.9 2010, Safe D
AD 76: 79.3 Obama, 77.6 2010, Safe D
77: 79.2 Obama, 78.9 2010, Safe D
78: 85.2 Obama, 86.1 2010, Safe D

Have to love Madison.

SD 27, AD 79, 80, 81:

SD 27: 65.7 Obama, 60 2010, Safe D
AD 79: 67.7 Obama, 63.1 2010, Safe D
80: 63.4 Obama, 55.6 2010, Safe D
81: 65.9 Obama, 60.9 2010, Safe D

SD 28, AD 82, 83, 84:

SD 28: 39.8 Obama, 32.2 2010, Safe GOP
AD 82: 44.3 Obama, 36.5 2010, Safe GOP
83: 41.8 Obama, 35 2010, Safe GOP
84: 33.6 Obama, 26 2010, Safe GOP

SD 29, AD 35, 36, 85:

SD 29: 56.7 Obama, 45.8 2010, Likely D with Decker, Tossup if Open
AD 35: 56.5 Obama, 41.6 2010, Tossup
36: 56.2 Obama, 42.3 2010, Tossup
85: 57.4 Obama, 48 2010, Lean D

As I mentioned above, I wanted to bring together the best parts of the 12th and 29th to provide a district that would be much better for us to hold. This would still be a tossup if open, but it would be a district that would be easier to win. Additionally, the 35th and 36 become somewhat winnable.

SD 30, AD 4, 88, 90:

SD 30: 57.6 Obama, 47.1 2010, Likely D with Hansen, Lean D if Open
AD 4: 53.1 Obama, 42.2 2010, Lean R
88: 60.8 Obama, 50.2 2010, Safe D
90: 59.9 Obama, 50.3 2010, Safe D

This district becomes a little safer by brining in inner suburbs of Green Bay. Additionally, AD 4 becomes a somewhat winnable district.

SD 31, AD 69, 91, 92:

SD 31: 57.4 Obama, 46.4 2010, Likely D with Vinehout, Lean D if Open
69: 57.8 Obama, 48.1 2010, Likely D
91: 58 Obama, 46.2 2010, Safe D with Danou, Lean D if Open
92: 56.2 Obama, 44.9 2010, Likely D with Radcliffe, Tossup if Open

While Vinehout loses Eau Claire to help Kreitlow, she makes up for by getting Menomonee and River Falls.

SD 32, AD 94, 95, 96:

SD 32: 60.6 Obama, 49.9 2010, Lean R/Tossup with Kapanke, Safe D if Open
94: 61.4 Obama, 49.9 2010, Safe D
95: 60.5 Obama, 50.1 2010, Safe D
96: 59.9 Obama, 49.7 2010, Lean R with Nerrison, Likely D if Open

In my scenario the recalls would not have happened, so Kapanke would still be Senator. However, as with SD 17, there becomes many pick-up opportunities for Senate and Assembly upon retirement.

SD 33, AD 97, 98, 99:

SD 33: 38.1 Obama, 29.6 2010, Safe R
AD 97: 34.8 Obama, 28.2 2010, Safe R
98: 34.5 Obama, 26.5 2010, Safe R
99: 46.9 Obama, 36.4 2010, Safe R (most Dem Assembly district possible in Waukesha county)

For the Senate, this map would have shored up Kreitlow, Sullivan, Lehman, and Decker. While we would lose the 12th, there would be a nearly guaranteed pickup in the 13th, reasonable pickups for the 1st, 17th, 19th, and 32nd, and a potential pickup in the 18th. Thus, this map would lead to a solid Senate majority with the potential for 22 seats.
For the Assembly, this map would produce (give or take a few seats) 55 Dem-leaning seats, 8 tossups, and 36 Republican leaning seats. So this should produce a Democratic majority, if not as solid as the Senate.

In terms of the actual map. There is some hope for taking back majorities in both chambers, but it would be difficult. For the Senate we have to see what 2014 and 2018 bring. That is because those years contain our best chances for pickups. The 1st, 17th, 19th, 23rd and 29th are up these years. As for 2016 and 2020, only 12 and 18 seem like possible pickups and would both be pretty difficult. However we only need 2 seats, Schultz and Ellis will not be around forever, and both seats would be pretty favorable in an open seat situation. So it would not be unreasonably difficult to take back the Senate.

The Assembly is another story. We need to net 11 seats to take back the majority. Fortunately, there were 11 seats that went Republican on the 6th that we lost by less than 10 points and in some cases, by only a couple of points. Those seats are the 1, 26, 37, 49, 50, 51, 67, 68, 72, 88, and 93. Some of these seats (like the 1st and 50th) as well as the 96th should become more favorable when the incumbents retire. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that we will have the tailwinds we had this year with Obama and Baldwin as well as the strong field organization they brought, especially given that at this point Walker is a favorite for re-election. So while there is a path for taking back the Assembly, it is a very steep hill to climb.

A Court Drawn Wisconsin State Senate

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 27, 2011 · 7:45 PM PST

2011/11/27 · 19:45

The inspiration for this diary is the possibility that the Wisconsin state legislative map might be thrown out. The rationale is that the new map moves about 300,000 people from even numbered districts to odd numbered districts, thus they could not vote for their State Senator for 6 years. This rationale got maps thrown out in the early 80s: http://www.jsonline.com/.... Thus, I drew a map that would shift less than 173,976 people and with population growth that seems like it would hold muster. While the court could just order the legislature to draw the maps again or could draw the maps themselves.

Thus, I draw a hypothetical court drawn map. The incumbents largely live in their prior districts, with one exception.

Here is statewide:

Starting from the North:

District 25: 58.4-40.1 Obama, 51.2-48.8 2010 Dem Average. The Dem strength of the counties bordering Lake Superior make this a Safe Dem seat.

District 10: 49.1-48.9 Obama, 40-60 2010 Dem Average. With population growth in the Twin Cities exurbs, this district had to lose Menominee, making this a Safe R district.

District 12: 53-45.4 Obama, 41.9-58.1 2010 Dem Average. This district should be fine for Holperin but it would be Tossup otherwise.

District 29: 53.1-40 Obama, 42.5-57.5 2010 Dem Average. Just like 12, this district would be a Tossup. State Rep. Donna Seidel would be an excellent candidate for this seat.

District 23: 57-41.2 Obama, 45.9-54.1 2010 Dem Average. Menominee had to go somewhere and thus this district becomes Likely Dem. Former Rep. Kristin Dexter could be good here if Kreitlow sticks to his Congressional run.

District 31: 57.2-41.2 Obama, 46.8-53.2 2010 Dem Average. This district should be Safe Dem for Vinehout, but Likely Dem otherwise.

District 24: 58.9-39.1 Obama, 48.1-51.9 2010 Dem Average. This district would be Safe Dem for Lassa or Likely Dem otherwise.

District 14: 51.1-47.4 Obama, 41-59 2010 Dem Average. Fred Clark lives here, but I find it unlikely he could win against Luther Olsen if he did not win this past summer. So I would say Likely R.

District 32: 60.7-37.7 Obama, 49.9-50.1. I do not believe I changed the district at all, so it remains Safe D for Schilling or any other Dem.

District 17: 60.5-38 Obama, 48.3-51.7 2010 Dem Average. This is tick more Republican than the neighboring 32nd, so Dale Schultz should be fine, but without him it would be Safe Dem.

Lets go to the Fox Valley:

District 1: 54.7-43.8 Obama, 43.6-56.4 2010 Dem Average. This would be a prime pickup opportunity, buy it would remain a Tossup throughout the decade. Outagamie County exec Tom Nelson lives here and if he were to run, it would be a Likely pickup. However, he likely has Congress or Statewide runs in his future.

District 2: 50.3-48.3 Obama, 37.8-62.2 2010 Dem Average. I changed the configurations of the 2nd and 30th. The 30th oddly starts at Green Bay and goes up the Bay to Marinette. To clean it up, I compacted the 30th to be a GB and GB suburbs district. Since Cowles lives in Allouez, he lives in the 30th. Nevertheless, even without Cowles this district is Likely R.

District 9: 52.4-46 Obama, 39.4-60.6 2010 Dem Average. With Leibham, this district is Safe R, but without him it would be Tossup.

District 18: 51.3-47.2 Obama, 41.4-58.6 2010 Dem Average. This would be a pretty difficult for King to hold, so I would rate it a Tossup.

District 19: 55.3-42.8 Obama, 45.5-54.5 2010 Dem Average. Ellis would be fine in this district, but when he retires this would be a Tossup.

District 30: 56.7-41.9 Obama, 46.5-53.5 2010 Dem Average. Unless Cowles challenges Hansen in a battle royale, this district should be Likely Dem.

Lets head to the Southeast.

District 11: 39.3-59.5 Obama, 28.7-71.3 2010 Dem Average: Safe R

District 13: 52.8-45.8 Obama, 42.8-57.2 2010 Dem Average. I find this the most intriguing district in the map in that the current Senate Majority leader Fitz finds himself in a very marginal seat. Due to growth in Dane county, those districts had to contract and with the area around Dane county growing and becoming more Dem, this is a district trending toward the Dems. If State Rep Andy Jorgensen would run, this would be a heck of an election. Due to trends around Dane county, this would be Tossup.

District 15: 63.2-35.2 Obama, 53.3-46.7 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem

District 16: 67.4-31.4 Obama, 62.4-37.6 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem

District 20: 35.4-63.3 Obama, 25.5-74.5 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP

District 21: 55.6-43.1 Obama, 46.2-53.8 2010 Dem Average: This district has to grow to take in Burlington, but this district still depends on how turnout in the city of Racine in. Thus it is Tossup. This would be great for State Rep Cory Mason.

District 22: 57.9-40.5 Obama, 47.6-52.4 2010 Dem Average: The Kenosha suburbs seems to have more a Chicago than Milwaukee flavor to them and thus should be Safe Dem.

District 26: 81.7-16.5 Obama, 81.6-18.4 2010 Dem Average: Isn't Mad-town wonderful? Safe Dem.

District 27: 66.5-32.3 Obama, 60.8-39.2 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem

District 28: 38.2-60.7 Obama, 30.6-69.4 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP

District 33: 37.9-61.0 Obama, 28.2-71.9 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP

Now to Milwaukee:

District 3: 62.9-35.6 Obama, 55.1-44.9 2010 Dem Average: This district should be majority Hispanic by the end of the decade, Safe Dem

District 4: 81-18.1 Obama, 77.8-22.2 2010 Dem Average, 52.2 AA VAP. Safe Dem

District 5: 57.8-40.7 Obama, 51.8-48.2 2010 Dem Average. The conventional wisdom is that a court-drawn map would extend the 8th and 5th further out to the exurbs and thus put them out of reach. However, my approach from a Communities of Interest perspective is to have one district be largely inner-suburban and one outer-suburban. The result is the 5th being entirely within MKE county and Likely Dem. Jim Sullivan would be great for a comeback or State Rep. Cullen would be great for a run.

District 6: 85.7-13.4 Obama, 83.7-18.3 2010 Dem Average, 58.7 AA VAP: Safe Dem

District 7: 59.8-38.5 Obama, 54.5-45.5 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem

District 8: 39.9-59 Obama, 33.4-66.6 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP

So the end result is 17 likely Dem Seats, 8 tossups, and 8 likely GOP Seats.

Another 7-0-1 Maryland

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday September 25, 2011 · 7:00 PM PDT

2011/09/25 · 19:00

With all the Maryland maps, I guess I will throw my two cents in the game. The assumption of this map is a 7-0-1 map as a 8-0 map is incredibly difficult to do while maintaining reasonable seats for the Democratic incumbents and having 2 VRA seats. In addition, it would require splitting the East Shore, which could be too controversial. So I settled on 7 strong Dem seats and one swing seat.

So here were go:

MD-01 Blue: Old 40-58 Obama New 52.3-46.2 Obama 53.1-46.9 Dem Average

The main issue with creating an 8-0 map would be splitting the East Shore, which I do not believe would be politically possible. Instead I created a tossup seat by changing where the district goes across the bay, switching conservative portions of Ann Arundel county for Democratic D.C. Suburbs in Prince Georges county. By almost reaching to D.C. this district becomes one which a Democrat like Kratovil or Sen. Mathias can win.

MD-02 Green: Old 60-38 Obama New 58.3-39.8 Obama 62.4-37.6 Dem Average

By cleaning up this district, Dutch loses a few points but it still should be Safe Dem.

MD-03 Purple: Old 59-39 Obama New 58.9-38.8 Obama 63-37 Dem Average

Same situation. Sarbanes is fine.

MD-04 Red: Old 85-14 Obama New 75.5-23.4 Obama 74-26 Dem Average 50.1 AA VAP

Edwards has expressed that should would be willing to give up some of her Democratic areas to help out other districts, and at 50.1 AA voting age population, this is the limit of doing so while being VRA compliant.

MD-05 Yellow: Old 65-33 Obama New 62.1-36.7 Obama 64.2-35.8 Dem Average

Hoyer's district does not change that much and remains at Safe D.

MD-06 Teal: Old 40-58 Obama New 60.1-38.3 Obama 60.9-39.1 Dem Average

This is a much more easier task than MD-01 as it just needs to head into the Democratic D.C. suburbs of Montgomery county. A Frederick or Mont Co Dem should win and hold this district with ease.

MD-07 Chartreuse: Old 79-20 Obama New 65.3-33.1 Obama 63.5-36.5 Dem Average 50.1 AA VAP

This district might be tougher sell for Cummings as he might not be as willing to give up some of his Dems as Edwards is. However, this district soaks up the remaining GOP areas in Northern MD while remaining barely VRA compliant. I do not know where he lives in Baltimore, but the map could easily shift accordingly. Nevertheless, it is Safe Dem.

MD-08 Slate Blue: Old 74-25 Obama New 62.1-36.4 Obama 62.2-37.8 Dem Average

Van Hollen has to take up some of the GOP areas in the north to aid MD-06, but it still is Safe D.

Overall, this map can produce an 8-0 delegation, but without the potential mess of splitting the East Shore.

Upstate New York: Protecting the Marginals

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 05, 2011 · 2:55 PM PDT

2011/09/05 · 14:55

While all of my past diaries have been about Wisconsin, given that I go to school at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY and seeing a number of Upstate NY maps I felt I should take a stab at my temporary homeland of Upstate New York.

There are many hypotheses about what will happen in regards to NY. The assumption for this map is protecting the marginal seats for both parties, with the exception of Buerkle who in this map is axed (this map is also based on Weprin, should he succeed next week, getting cut as well). I tried to remain as true to the township lines as possible, given that townships cannot be split, although for the NYC suburbs and exurbs I might have split a township.

First, the wide view:

Lets start from the West:

NY-27 Blue (Higgins): Old 54-44 Obama New: 56.3-42 Obama
Largely retains his district and in fact gets a little boost. Due to his personal popularity, Higgins should be fine and any other other Democrat should be favored. Likely D

NY-26 Chartreuse (Hochul): Old: 46-52 Obama New: 56-42.6 Obama
Hochul is one of the key beneficiaries of this map in that it switches from R+7 to D+3. It is still a bit of an earmuffs with Buffalo and Rochester to help her out, but not nearly as nasty as the current earmuffs. I would say Lean D because Hochul is not as entrenched as Higgins, but this district presents her this opportunity.
To me, I think it should be a priority to protect Hochul in that she clearly has good campaigning skills and has a great personality (it is a compliment to her in that people around DKE are saying that Kate Marshall in NV-02 is no Kathy Hochul), so I think her profile provides balance to what I feel can be a too-NYC centric party.

NY-25 Red (Slaughter) Old: 69-30 Obama New: 58.8-39.8 Obama
In order to help out Hochul, Slaughter needs to drop the Buffalo end of her earmuffs and provide a little of Rochester. However, the damage is limited by extending to the Democratic small cities of the Finger Lakes. In fact, the Obama percentage would be little different than if it were just a Monroe county district. Even if Slaughter were to retire, this should be held by a Dem. Likely D

NY-9 Orange (Reed) Old: 48-51 Obama New: 42.3-56.2 Obama
This is where NY-09 ends up and it acts as a nice WNY vote sink. Safe R

Now to Central and Northern Upstate:

NY-24 Purple (Hannah): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 47.5-50.7 Obama
By losing areas around Ithaca, Hannah receives a boost. Likely R

NY-23 Yellow (Owens): Old: 52-47 Obama New: 59.7-38.6 Obama
This is perhaps the most controversial district in the map not only because it becomes this decade's earmuffs (well with one ear bigger much bigger than the other) connecting Syracuse to the North. One of the great issues with NY redistricting is what to do with Syracuse as the fear with bringing too much of Syracuse into this district would lead to a Syracuse-area politician primarying Bill Owens and perhaps causing a backlash from the North. However, from a strictly numbers scenario, this would probably be the most Democratic district possible utilizing Syracuse and the North. So I would say that any district that is about 60 percent Obama would be Lean Dem at least.

NY-22 Lime (Hinchey): Old: 59-39 Obama New: 60-38.4 Obama
I think the combination of Ithaca, Binghamton, and Ulster County area would be too much even in a 2010 scenario, so Safe Dem

NY-21 Cyan (Tonko): Old: 58-40 Obama New: 59.1-39.1 Obama
This district receives a little boost by adding Saratoga Springs and Democratic rural areas along the Vermont border, so I would say Likely Dem.

NY-20 Pink (Gibson): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 47.6-50.6 Obama
By losing Saratoga Springs this district becomes one that Obama loses. This district might be more winnable as some of the areas in the east become more like Vermont, but until that happens it is Likely R.

Finally heading down to the Lower Hudson:

NY-19 YellowGreen (Hayworth): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 48.3-50.7 Obama
By losing West Point, areas around Poughkeepsie, and parts of Westchester County, this district also shifts to a McCain district. So Likely R

NY-18 Yellow (Lowey): Old: 62-38 Obama New: 64-35.1 Obama
By taking in Newburgh and more Westchester, it gains a few points and remains at Safe D.

NY-17 Dark Slate Blue (Engel): Old: 72-28 New: 66.3-33.1 Obama
This district loses a few point to make it neater, but nevertheless the substantial chunk of the Bronx make this district Safe D.

So overall, with the exception of Buekle, this district helps out the marginal seats.

The Road to Majority?: Wisconsin State Legislature

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday July 12, 2011 · 4:19 PM PDT

2011/07/12 · 16:19

Given that past practice and state law prescribe that the building blocks of state legislative districts be municipal wards, I had previously thought that redistricting in Wisconsin would not occur until the fall, which is when the municipalities finish the process of drawing the wards lines. That would mean after the recalls, which present a chance of ruining the trifecta Republicans have and providing for at least a court-drawn map. However, with Republicans changing law to indicate that census blocks are the basis of districts, that means they could pass the maps before the recalls. In term of preventing this, there does not seem to be that much that can stop this as the map is VRA compliant and if they change the law regarding municipal wards vs census blocks, well they change the law. Of course, the ability to stop this is wholly dependent on Democrats taking back the State Senate next month in the recall elections, which is far from a sure thing. The Republicans presented their maps last Friday. Initially, I knew they were brutal but I waited until I plugged the districts into DRA before providing more detailed analysis and seeing if there is a legitimate road to a majority. The good news is that yes, there is a path. The bad news is that path is made significantly harder than it is under present maps.
Two notes. Since the districts in DRA are the wards and since the lines cross ward maps, the Obama percentages are not exact and would be off by a few tenths or so.
Additionally, I am not going to go through all 132 seats, but rather focus on the seats with important partisan changes and ones which Democrats need to win for majorities.

For more detailed maps, you can go here:

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/...

For the 2010 Gov and 2008 presidential election results for all the districts go here: http://www.jsonline.com/...

First, the Senate:

The Republicans here did not go after any present incumbents. Rather they tried to shore up their marginal seats. This is most pronounced in the 5th, 8th, and 21st. The 5th loses most of eastern (read Democratic) areas and shifts west to include all of Brookfield and northern New Berlin. As a result it shifts from 51.4 Obama to 45.1 Obama, so safe R. The 8th loses Shorewood and the parts in Milwaukee (read most Democratic) and goes further north and west. Thus it shifts from 51.4 to 43.9 Obama so again Safe R. The 21st is perhaps a bigger loss because at 55.3 percent Obama it was looking to be one of the top pickup priorities. But since the Republicans mushed the cities of Racine and Kenosha together (which is arguable from a CoI standpoint) in one district and mushed the suburbs and exurbs of those cities together in one district, the 21st losses most of the city of Racine and this shifts to 47.2 Obama, so Safe R. Additionally, the 9th is firmed up. At 52.6 Obama, it was a plausible pickup once Leibham ran for something higher. But by moving south it also moves to 50.4 Obama and thus only in the best case scenario would we win this seat.

However, there is a plausible path to a majority. This map leaves 13 seats where the Democrat would be favored. I am including Dave Hansen because at 56.5 Obama, it should still be favored for a Democrat to retain. The low hanging fruit would be the 32nd, which is likely to be won by Jen Schilling next month and at 60.5 Obama it would be safe D, and the 17, which is still plenty Democratic at 59.8 Obama. However, the Republican Dale Schultz, has earned a lot of moderate cred by voting no on the collective bargaining, but he did vote for the budget, so taking his seat would be tossup at worst and if a Dem could do it they should retain it. That leaves use with 15 seats.
There are 4 more seats which Democrats should look to target: the 1st, 19th, 23rd, and 29th. The 1st does not change that much from 53.4 to 53.9 Obama and with incumbent Frank Lasse taking some unusual stances (which are being brought to light due to his interest in the US Senate), it could be won. The 19th is also quite similar from 54 to 54.3 percent Obama, however due to Ellis' personal popularity, this seat would be harder than the partisan numbers indicate. The 23rd is weakened a little from 55.1 to 53.7 Obama due to most of Eau Claire being vote sinked into Vinehout's district (in the form of the 91st AD), but it is a winnable seat. Finally, the 29th also does not change that much from 53.4 to 53.3 percent Obama, so maybe State Rep. Donna Seidel might want to give this a shot. Given that the 1st, 23rd, and 29th are held by freshman, they should be easier to take down than Ellis who has been there for a long time.
As for other districts, Holperin in the 12th is still in a marginal going from 52.7 to 52.2 percent Obama, so even if he holds the seat next month, it would be difficult to hold throughout the decade. For Fred Clark and Nancy Nusbaum, while they are drawn out of their seats, if they were to win and move to their new seats, they still would have seats with similar partisanship with the 14th being at 51.2 Obama and the 2nd at 52.3 Obama. As for Jess King in the 18th and Shelly Moore in the 10th, their districts do not change that much with the 18th being at 51.2 Obama and the 10th being at 50.4 Obama. So for these 5 Democrats, if they can win and hold these seats, great, but we do not need to reach that far down the swingometer for a majority and holding down these seats will be difficult. The 14th might benefit from continuing growth in the Madison area as it bleeds into Columbia county though.

The path for majority in the Senate through the decade, is to hold the 30th, have Jen Schilling not have a live boy/dead girl moment, find a way to stop ticket splitting in the 17th, and win two out of the four remaining tossups. The one problem is that nearly all of these seats are not normally up until 2014 and I do not know if the DPW will try to recall these Senators when they already have to work on President, US Senate, the Walker recall, and defending any candidates that win next month. On the hole though, it seems as if the task is straightforward. The assembly is not so easy.

Here is the Assembly map:

This map is simply brutal. As opposed to the Senate map which does not go after incumbents, this map does goes after many incumbents, particularly with the baconmander in the Milwaukee suburbs. Democrats Sandy Pasch, Andy Jorgensen, Cory Mason, Tony Staskunas, and my own Rep. David Cullen are in districts they could not win. However, two GOP incumbents in the Green Bay (Karl Van Roy and the infamous John Nygren) look to be drawn into the same district to make room for a Green Bay vote sink of the 90th. I think the rationale is instead of likely having two Democratic seats (88th and 90th) in Green Bay, the Republicans just concentrated the Democrats into one seat. Thus, just due to redistricting Republicans should have 63 seats and Democrats 36. That means Democrats have to find 14 seats to take back a majority. There are 17 Republican held seats where the Obama performance was around 53 percent or above, so the Democrats would have to reach down the swingometer about as much as for the Senate.
As with the Senate, there are a number of seats which were very Democratic, but now are marginals or even Republican seats. The most dramatic examples include the districts of Mike Endsley of the 26th which goes from 59.4 to 48.9 Obama; Keith Ripp, old 47th new 42nd, which goes from 58.4 to 51.7 Obama; Amy Loudenbeck, old 45th new 31 which goes from 62.2 Obama to 50.5; Dean Kaufert in the 55th, which goes from 58.3-52.4 Obama; Kathy Bernier in 68th which goes from 59.5 to 55.7 Obama; John Klenke of the 88th which goes form 61.6 to 53.8 Obama; and Warren Petryk of the 93rd which goes from 59.5 to 52 percent Obama. So that is 7 seats that switch from pretty Democratic to marginal/Republican.
As for other Democratic incumbents, there are some which would be on the lookout. Josh Zepnick of the 7th (current 9th but new 7th) goes from 67.1 Obama to 56.3 and a bunch of new territory, Christine Sinicki of the 20th goes from 57.8 Obama to 56.3, Amy Sue Vruwink in the 70th goes from 56.5 Obama to 54.8 Obama, Steve Doyle in the 94th goes from 55.5 Obama to 54.7, so these four Democrats would be ripe for some GOP offense. is at 56.3 percent Obama. Thus besides the GOP seats strengthened, the Dem seats destroyed, there are still 4 seats (by my estimation) where the GOP could legitimately play some offense.

But as I indicates above, there is a path to a majority. But unlike with the Senate, which just required winning 2 out of 4 of the seats which I classified as tossup (1st, 19th, 23rd, and 29th) Democrats would have to win 14 out of the 17 seats that are above 52.7 percent Obama. However, if the Democrats really want to expand the map, there are 20 seats which Obama did get over 50 percent in, so I could imagine some seats in that tier falling with the right campaign.

So here are those 17 seats:

1st-56.4 Obama, 5th-53.9 Obama, 35th-53.3 Obama, 36th-52.8 Obama, 43rd-61.9 Obama, 44th-66.9 Obama, 49th-61.1 Obama, 50th-55.8 Obama, 51st-62.3 Obama, 67th-52.7, 68th-55.7 Obama, 69th-53.1 Obama, 72nd-54.5 Obama, 80th-67 Obama, 88th-53.8 percent Obama, 90th-65.7 Obama, 96th-59.5 Obama

The low hanging fruit of the bunch seems to be the 43rd, 44th, 49th, 51st, 80th, 90th, and 96th, bringing the Democrats to 43 seats. The 80th and 90th are new open seats and the 43rd, 44th, 49th and 51st are held by Republicans who won in the wave last year, so these seats should be not hard to win. However, the 96th is held by Lee Nerison who is like a Dale Schultz in that he is pretty moderate and voting against the collective bargaining bill, so like Schultz it will be tough to take him down but one that seat is won it should be retained.

Here are the 20 seats which Obama won, but given that they are only from 50 to 52.7 Obama, would be difficult to win and hold given Obama over performance in the state, but nevertheless are worthwhile targets:

2nd- 52.3, 3rd-52.6, 4th-52.3, 6th-50.9 ,21st-50.5, 25th-51.8, 27th-50.6, 29th-52.6, 30th-51.5, 31st-50.5, 34th-50.6, 40th-50.5, 41st-51.5, 42nd-51.7, 55th-52.4, 75th-52.2, 86-51.1, 87th-51.6, 89th-52, 93rd-52

In conclusion, this new map does not make Democratic majorities impossible, but rather much more difficult, particularly in the Assembly.

Clean Democratic Wisconsin State Senate (Updated)

glame

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday June 18, 2011 · 3:20 PM PDT

2011/06/18 · 15:20

Given my previous diaries have been very messy gerrymanders of the Wisconsin State Senate and the potential of a court drawn map, I was a wondering, can there be a relatively clean map yet provide for a Democratic majority. The answer, depending on your definition of clean, is a resounding yes.
Now the following map makes the very big assumption that big changes to the map can happen. In Wisconsin that is not outside the realm of possibility. In 2001, the Courts had to draw the maps and they made some very significant changes in the Milwaukee area for the state legislative map and in the Congressional map, made the very partisan decision of moving Beloit into Tammy Baldwin's district. So while the map is plausible it not as plausible as BeloitDem's map (http://www.dailykos.com/...).
Overall, with some exemptions, I took into account both current State Senators and, due to the nesting of Assemble seats into Senate seats, current State Representatives. My district ratings are based mostly on the underlying partisanship of the district and what is the likelihood of holding the district throughout the decade.

The North:

SD 25 (Gold): Jauch's district does not change tremendously and thus remains Safe D, even if he does retire soon due to the strong Democratic bench in the district, especially Rep. Nick Milroy. New: 58.3-40.2 Obama Old: 58.9-39.6 Obama

SD 12 (Crimson): The most vulnerable Democrat this summer, Jim Holperin, remains in a marginal district, although it gets slightly better by moving around some townships and moving into Price County to counter population loss. New 53.5-44.8 Obama Old: 52.7-45.7 Obama. Tossup

SD 29 (Dark Sea Green): Pam Galloway's district is smoothed out and just as the 12th gets a little better for Holperin, the 29th gets a little better for Galloway with some township swaps. New 52.5-45.6 Obama Old: 53.4-44.7 Obama

SD 24 (Indigo): Julie Lassa's district is not changed that much and remains Safe D even if she were to run for something higher, given (as with the 25th) the strong bench in the district. New 58.9-39.1 Obama Old 59-39 Obama

SD 23 (Aquamarine): Now here is where the cleanliness is debatable, although I think this looks better than the current 29th, so it should pass muster. Moulton's district is predicated on Shelly Moore winning (and with GOP polls putting the race at 49-47, that is a definite possibility). However, if Harsdorf wins, I probably change this area to BeloitDem's 23rd and 10th, which is more what is currently is. So for this district I swapped the purple and blue parts of Chippewa and Dunn counties (including Chippewa Falls and part of Eau Claire) for the reddish Polk and St. Croix counties. As a result the district moves from 55.1-43.1 Obama to 49.2-48.8 Obama so a district that could be won by a Democrat (such as Ann Hraychuck) but would be an uphill climb to win and hold. Likely R

SD 10 (Deep Pink): As this district would be predicated on a Moore victory, she would be rewarded by retaining River Falls, Menomonee, and the most Democratic parts of St Croix county and gaining Chippewa Falls and part of Eau Claire. By moving from 50.1-47.9 Obama to 56.3-41.8 Obama, this district becomes one which can fall to a Republican, but would require probably a 2010 scenario for that to occur. Likely Dem.

Here is a close-up to show how the cities are divided, with SD 10 changing to Lime so that the city lines could be seen easier:

SD 31 (Medium Blue): If Vinehout could not be taken out last year, she is solid in a district that does not change that much. Additionally, given the strong Democratic bench it should stay in Democratic hands. It could be won by a Republican, like a Dale Schultz, but it is becoming more likely that a Dale Schultz could not make it out of a Republican primary. It moves from 57.8-40.6 Obama to 57.3-41.2 Obama. Likely/Safe Dem

The Fox Valley:

SD 30 (Blue Violet): Hansen's district shifts from going up to Marinette to going up to Door County. I did this for the reason of protecting Hansen because the area he takes is more Democratic. I would dip into Twin Rivers for good measure but that would be too messy. From 56.5-42.1 Obama to 58.2-40.4 Obama I would say Safe D.

SD 1 (Goldenrod): Lasee becomes a beneficiary of Hansen taking Door and Kewaunee counties by moving further into Calumet, Outagamie, and Brown Counties. Moves from 53.4-45.1 to 51.7-46.7 Obama so it is still a Tossup.

SD 2 (Dodger Blue): Cowles also benefits from taking in some Brown, Oconto, and Marinette County sections of Hansen's district. But, as with Lasee, it does move from 52.4-46.2 Obama to 50.7-47.9 Obama so it still remains Tossup.

SD 9 (Deep Sky Blue): Leibham's district expands to include Twin Rives so it becomes a little more Democrat by moving from 52.6-45.9 to 53.5-44.9. While Leibham is pretty popular in the district, given his likely ascension to Congress when Petri retires, this would be a prime pickup opportunity. Tossup.

SD 18 (Spring Green): What is likely to become Jess King's district (due to Hopper's unpopularity) becomes slightly better from 51.3-47.3 Obama to 52.1-46.4 Obama, it would be tough to hold. Hopefully, Oshkosh will continue to trend D and improve this district. Tossup.

SD 19 (Yellow): Ellis remains in a district that is one of the most Democratic held by a Republican and given the growth and D trend in Appleton, would be a prime target, although he has a lot of personal popularity. It shifts from 54.0-44.1 Obama to 55.1-43 Obama so Tossup.

The South:

SD 11 (Light Sky Blue): Not much changes for Kedzie. Remains Safe R at 39.9-58.8 Obama.

SD 13 (Forest Green): Fitzgerald might be vulnerable in that this seat shifts from 47.8-50.8 Obama to 48.3-50.3, it would be a tough slog to win and retain. State Rep Andy Jorgensen might give this a go and Fitz might have been dragged in the mud too much, but I would still rate this at Likely R.

SD 14 (Cornflower Blue): Should Fred Clark be victorious over Luther Olsen (and polls are showing Olsen in a vulnerable position), his reward will not be as sweet as Moore's but still a district he could hold. Given population growth around Madison, the district has to expand southward and thus, shifts from 51.8-46.7 Obama to 53.3-45.3 Obama. Thus, easier for Clark but still Tossup

SD 15 (Blue Violet): Cullen is safe in this Beloit, Whitewater, Janesville district at 63.3-35 Obama. Safe D

SD 16 (Orange): Miller's district has to shrink and at 68.8-29.9 Obama it remains Safe D.

SD 17: (Teal): While with Schultz at the helm, it is Tossup at best, given that the district is 60.5-38 Obama (and remains that way), the underlying partisan dynamics of the district (which is what I am basing my judgements) indicate Safe D.

SD 20 (Pink): Grothman is Safe R at 36.8-61.9 Obama.

SD 21 (Dark Orange): Van Wanggaard's district is, in addition to the 23rd, the most debatable in terms of cleanliness. By swapping most of ruby red rural Racine county with light red South Milwaukee and Oak Creek, this district shifts from 55.3-43.4 Obama to 58.5-40.1 Obama so I would say Safe D and would be perfect for Rep. Cory Mason.

Here is a close-up:

SD 22 (Teal) Wirch's district shifts around some wards for population purposes. By losing some red rural areas, it moves from 57.1-41.3 Obama to 58-40.3 Obama. So it could be vulnerable, but unlikely. So Safe/Likely D.

SD 26 (Yellow): For Risser or whoever replaces him, it is safe D at 80.4-17.9 Obama.

SD 27 (Lime): Ditto for Erpenbach at 66.4-32.4 Obama. Safe D

SD 28 (Purple): This district loses some of the Milwaukee suburbs to help Vukmir (explained below), but gains the rural areas from the 21st as described above. So it is safe for Lazich at 38.4-60.5 Obama. Safe R

SD 32 (Orange Red): It is really hard to fathom a scenario where Kapanke holds on, so I will say Schilling is Safe D at 60.9-37.5 Obama.

SD 33 (Olive) Zipperer takes in parts of Germantown and Menomonee Falls to help (hopefully) Pasch, which is described later, and remains Safe R at 36.3-62.5 Obama. Actuall steals safest Republican district from Grothman.

And finally to Milwaukee County:

SD 3 (Blue): The rationale for this district shifting North into West Allis is that this helps out State Rep. Tony Staskunas. His marginal district has to gain population and it would become safer by moving east rather than west to take up West Milwaukee and more Democratic parts of Milwaukee. Overall Carpenter is Safe D at 63.3-35.1. Additionally, while it is still white majority VAP (52.4-37.8 percent), overall there is a Hispanic plurality (44.6-44.3), so this could become a majority Hispanic State Senate seat by the end of the decade.

SD 4 (Red): Taylor's district retains a majority AA VAP (57.2 VAP) district and the safest Democrat in the state at 87.1-12 Obama. Safe D

SD 5 (Gold): Given population loss, there is the choice of the 5th and 8th SDs shifting further out and thus becoming more Republican or sacrificing one to make the other more Democratic. I chose the latter and chose to help Vukmir. This district changes incredibly by losing the 13 and 15th ADs, gaining Greendale, Hales Corners, western Greenfield, portions of Waukesha and New Berlin, and the entirety of Brookfield. Thus it shifts from 51.4-47.1 Obama to 40.4-58.5 Obama. Safe R

SD 6 (Green): This and the 4th are caught up in the bind of helping to firm up the 8th, taking in population to combat population decline, all the while remaining majority AA. Lena Taylor does this by gaining the portion of Milwaukee between Wauwatosa and West Allis. Coggs does this by gaining portions of Wauwatosa (which actually liberates a fair number of Wauwatosa Democrats, including myself). The reason I flipped a lot of their territory is that this was the best way of ensuring clean districts, majority AA districts (given the distribution of AAs in Milwaukee), and districts that have their home in them. Nevertheless, Coggs will be fine 77.8-21.4 Obama and majority AA VAP at 50.8 percent. Safe D.

SD 7 (Cyan): Larson has to gain an assembly district and gains Krusick's. He still retains his Bayview and Eastside base and is fine at 60.6-37.7 Obama. Safe D

SD 8 (Chartreuse): Just like the 10th is predicated on Moore winning, this 8th is predicated on Pasch winning, which will be tough but Darling is considered to be vulnerable. If she were to win, she would be rewarded handsomely. Her district moves from 51.4-47.4 Obama to 56.3-42.6 Obama. This is achieved by losing Richfield, parts of Menomonee Falls and Germantown and gaining the rest of Glendale and parts of Milwaukee. While this is the same Obama percentage as the 10th, this is much safer due to greater polarization in the Milwaukee area. There tends to be more swing voters in the outstate area than in Milwaukee. That is why the swings in the inner ring suburbs were around 6 percent, while the swings outstate were 10-12 percent. 56 percent in Milwaukee area is firmer than say 56 percent in the North. In fact, while Lassa, Wirch, and Vinehout currently have districts that have a greater Obama percentage, Walker won their districts while Barrett would have won this district (albeit by a slim margin like 50.01 percent, but nevertheless he won it). So I would rate this as Safe/Likely Dem.

Here is an overall graphic demonstration of the changes:

This map should produce a 18-7-8 map. It really demonstrates the strength of the Republicans in the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs and Twin Cities exurbs; the Democratic strength in Milwaukee, Madison area, the Southwest, and extreme North; and the swinginess elsewhere.

glame

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Tuesday June 14, 2011 · 6:05 AM PDT

2011/06/14 · 06:05

There have been some rumors that Wisconsin Republicans will use the budget to pass a quick redistricting bill before recalls potentially mess up their trifecta. The "Extraordinary Session" provides a means to do so without much public or legislative oversight. Now I originally thought that they would have to wait until municipalities redraw their ward lines as wards are the basis of Congressional and state legislative districts. That is a process that will not be completed until the fall. However, the Republicans have gone ahead and have drawn a map. Contrary to what I originally thought, there does appear to be some town and city splitting, so the process of redrawing the ward map is relevant. So this could be subject to a lawsuit.
However, I still want to analyze what seems to be a worse case scenario map. Here is the map and some commentary from Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
http://www.jsonline.com/...

To the best of my ability I have drawn these into DRA although without getting a detailed map of the boundaries, a couple of wards might shift around.

So here I go:

Statewide:

Southeast:

Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties:

CD 1 Blue: Surprisingly this map remains largely the same at 50.7 Obama, 48 McCain, which does not change from the current 51-48 Obama. According to Gilbert, Ryan actually drew this map so if he wanted a better district, he could have just drawn Moore's district into Racine. While this district would be uphill for a Democrat to win and hold, it is not impossible and thus Ron Zerban still has a chance. Lean R

CD 2 Green: Baldwin's district does shift west, but those areas are 60+ Obama areas and it keeps Beloit and Dane counties so it remains safe at 70-28.5 Obama, which actual improves a point from the current 69-30. If Baldwin does pull the trigger for Senate, a Democrat will be sure to succeed. Safe D

CD 3 Red: After giving Kind the challenge of his career last year by none other than likely recall loser Kapanke, I think the RPW acknowledges that there are just too many Democratic areas for a 6-2 map. Thus, this district helps Duffy by grabbing Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids, but helps Kind by losing Republican and fast-growing St. Croix county. At 59.2-39.1 Obama, it improves a little from 58-41 Obama. State Senator Dale Schultz can still give this district a shot as he has regularly won a 60+ Obama district, but it will be an uphill climb against Kind (or even if he runs for Senate, look for State Rep Chris Danou). Likely D

CD 4 Chartreuse: Moore's district needs to expand and conveniently takes up the Democratic North Shore suburbs. I am sure Sensenbrenner will not enjoy not having Shorewood in his district anymore. At 74.1-24.7 Obama, it is only slightly weakened from 75-24 Obama. Safe D

CD 5 Yellow: Sensenbrenner's district remains the most Republican in the state and unfortunately, since Moore's does not expand into Wauwatosa, remains my home district. I was surprised it remains as Republican, but I guess Jim opposed to much weakening of his district. At 41.7-57.1 Obama, it is only slightly weakened from 41-58 Obama. Safe R

CD 6 Teal: Petri's district changes a significant degree by losing Democratic Adams county, but it loses Republican Calumet and most of Dodge, but it gains heavily Republican Ozaukee county. Thus it is a wash. This 50-49 Obama district weakens a little to 49.4-49.1 Obama. Thus, a Democrat can win, but it would be a big hill to climb and even when Petri retires, State Senator Joe Leibham will be the favorite to succeed as he is only 41 and his senate district is actually a little more Democratic. Likely R

CD 7 Orange: The biggest beneficiary of this map is the infamous Sean Duffy. With the previous changes described above and by gaining Vilas and Florence counties which were some of the few to vote for McCain, his district shifts from 56-43 Obama to 53.1-45.1 Obama. So while it is improved by 3 points, Duffy is still vulnerable and would be quite the tossup.
Here is a closeup of Chippewa Falls, which asides from being somewhat Democratic is home to current challenged Pat Kreitlow, who is very formidable. I cannot imagine this will dissuade Kreitlow from running as he is just on the border and can just move a few miles north without the accusation of being a carpetbagger. If Hochul can win from Hamburg and Mary Bono Mack can win when she basically lives in Florida, then I can imagine Kreitlow will not have many issues with his residency. If Kreitlow does not run, State Rep Nick Milroy of Superior would also be a great challenger:

CD 8 Slate Blue: While this district shifts south, the partisan complexion does not change form from 54-45 Obama to 53.5-45 Obama. Like the 7th, this would be a tossup and Outagamie County exec Tom Nelson would be a fantastic challenger as he is a beast at crossover appeal. Although, he probably should get established first before running again.

Overall, this map is a 3-2-3 map or (3-3-2 depending on how you rate CD 1).

Democratic Wisconsin State Senate (Updated)

glame

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Thursday May 12, 2011 · 9:09 AM PDT

2011/05/12 · 09:09

To provide some balance to my diary yesterday showing what a Republican redistricting of the Wisconsin State Senate would look like, I think it would be appropriate to show what a Democratic redistricting would look like. Like yesterday, I will start in the North, go the Fox Valley, head South and West, and then finish in Milwaukee.

The North:

10th (Magenta): What hopefully will be Shelly Moore's district becomes more Democratic by going east and picking up the rest of Dunn County and parts of Eau Claire. While at 54.5-43.7 Obama it will still be marginal, it is better than the 50.1-47.9.

23rd (Navajo White): Moulton's district gets significantly more Republican as it heads to the Minnesota border. McCain actually won this district 49.4-48.6

24th (Purple): Lassa's district remains the same as yesterday and what is presently is, centered in Wisconsin Rapids and Steven's Point, with a 58.9-39.1 Obama McCain performance. Still Safe D and in the even of Lassa running for higher office, there is a strong bench in Louis Molepske and Ann Sue Vruwink.

25th (Aquamarine): Same as above with Jauch remaining with his Iron Range district. 58.9 O 39.5 M

29th (Dark Sea Green): Galloway's district changes significantly with the loss of Wausau and the gain of rural areas. It is now a barely an Obama district at 49.5-48.7, so an uphill marginal.

12th (Crimson): Wausau has to go somewhere and it goes to significantly help Holperin, who goes from a 52.7-47 Obama district to a 56.4-41.9 Obama district. So it can still be vulnerable, but Holperin would be in a much better position.

Now to the Fox Valley:

1st (Orange Red): Lasee and Leibham are now drawn together in a 49.9-48.6 Obama district, so whoever wins the primary will likely be the winner in the general.

2nd (Goldenrod): Cowles's district gets much safer by losing some of urban areas of the Fox Valley and gaining some rural. Its 49.3-49.2, so likely R.

9th (Deep Sky Blue): Leibham's former district changes significantly. Before it contained Manitowoc and Sheboygan, both very Democratic. However, instead of taking in Republican rural areas of their respective counties, it goes north to Door and Kewaunee counties, which are either more Democratic or less Republican. At 57-41.4, it would be likely Democratic gain and hold.

18th (Spring Green): My map assumes that King would win, which would be better because her home of Oshkosh is more Democratic than Fond Du Lac. Oshkosh, combined with the urban areas along the Fox River (Neenah, Menasha, Appleton, Kimberly, Little Chute, and Kaukauna) provide for a reliable 61.5-36.7 Obama district.

19th (Maroon): With the lose of most of Neenah, Menasha, and Appleton, and gain of of Fondy and rural areas, Ellis' district changes significantly to a 50.3-48.2 McCain district.

30th (Royal Blue): Squeezing the most Democratic parts out of the Green Bay area provide Hansen and more comfortable 58.3-40.4 Obama district.

We head to the South and West:

11th (Deep Pink): Kedzie is fine at 39.6-59.1 Obama

13th (Forest Green): The home of both Fitzgerald brothers actually gets safer under the Democratic map with 51.7-47 McCain performance.

14th (Cornflower Blue): Again, this map makes the assumption that Clark wins. This district swaps population with Schultz's district to make both safer for their respective parties. Clark heads southwest, while Schultz heads to the northeast. In fact, the partisan performance flips because at 62.2-36.5 Obama, it is very much like the current 17th. Another note, this district is 95.4 percent white VAP, 94.3 percent overall and yet it voted 62.2 percent with Obama. This is one of the rare places outside the Northeast and in a rural area that this can occur.

15th (Blue Violet): Like yesterday, Cullen's district is still safe with Janesville and Beloit at 63.2-35.2 Obama.

16th (Dark Orange): Miller is fine at 66.9-31.7 Obama

17th (Yellow Green): This is the the second half above and just as the current 17th and new 14 were both over 60 Obama, the current 14th and new 17th are around the same at 52.5-46 Obama. So Schultz should be fine (although he may be vulnerable to a primary challenge considering his vote on collective bargaining).

20th (Pink): Glen "Slob" Grothman is still safe in his 36.8-61.9 Obama district

21st (Maroon): I kept the configurations of this and the 22nd mostly the same for today mostly because just as Republicans would want to protect Wanggaard, the Dem would want to protect Wirch. So VW gets a 48.7-49.9 Obama district, so it is slightly more Republican, but nevertheless safe for him.

22nd (Teal): The same result as yesterday, Wirch becomes safe at 65.1-33.4 Obama.

Here is a closeup showing contiguity because Racine and Kenosha again:

26th (Yellow): Risser is fine at 80-18.4 Obama

27th (Lime): Ditto with Erpenbach at 67.4-31.4 Obama

28th (Purple): Ditto with Lazich at 60.7-38.2 McCain

33th (Olive): Ditto with Zipperer at 61.1-37.7 McCain

31st (Blue Violet): Ditto with Vinehout at 59.5-38.9 Obama

32 (Yellow): Ditto with (presumably) Schilling (well like the other seats the map is assuming a Schilling win): at 60.8-37.6 Obama

Just like yesterday, we have some more fun with Milwaukee:

3rd (Blue): This district shows a huge disparity in the VAP and overall numbers. Overall, it is plurality Hispanic at 46.1 H, 42.5 W, while the VAP is barely majority white at 39.2 H, 50.8 W, even with all the Hispanic areas in one district. So it is likely to become a majority Hispanic VAP (or at least plurality) by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, Carpenter is fine at 63.9-34.7 Obama

4th (Red): In order to make the 8th Democratic (see below) Taylor and Coggs have to shift south. But while Taylor takes up Republican Butler, that is more compensated by Milwaukee and east Wauwatosa. It still is majority AA VAP at 50.2, 54.2 overall and is still strong Dem at 77.8-21.3 Obama

5th (Gold): This district switches from a marginal to a safe Republican seat at 41.4-57.3 Obama. Vukmir can continue all her craziness as long as she wants.

6th (Green): Like Taylor, Coggs has to expand to white areas in order to boost the 8th. However, again, the district is still majority AA at 50.5 VAP, 55 AA overall. Also, the areas it takes in, West Milwaukee and east West Allis, are Democratic. Anyways, Coggs has the most Democratic district in the state at 84.4-14.6 Obama

7th (Cyan): Larson's district is basically the same in composition and partisanship at 59.6-38.7 I am worried by the growth and increasing Republican trend in the southern suburbs, but that is compensated by the growth in downtown Milwaukee, the Third Ward, and the East Side.

8th (Chartreuse): Just like the map yesterday, I had the most fun with this district. This is my favorite district because it is quite compact, but by dropping the Waukesha county portion and gaining northwest Milwaukee, the district shifts from 51-47 Obama to 60.5-38.5 Obama. So, another big shift, but in the Dems favor. While Pasch does have an uphill climb against Darling, this district would suit Pasch wonderfully.

Overall the Dems have the potential to gain 6 seats of which four seats (8th, 14th, 18th, and 32nd) would be pretty easy gains/retains. Additionally this provided for more Democratic districts for their incumbents.

glame

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Wednesday May 11, 2011 · 9:25 AM PDT

2011/05/11 · 09:25

Hearing recent rumblings of Walker trying to do redistricting before the recall elections made me think about what would a Republican redistricting look like. I actually drew a somewhat similar map a while ago, but was recent inspired by BeloitDem's idea of drawing the recall challengers out of the districts. This was accomplished with Clark, Schilling, and King. Additionally, Harsdorf's district get a little more Republican and Darling's district is changed considerably. On the whole, this map would be more favorable, however certain districts would be tossups.
So lets start with the North:

10th (Deep Pink): Harsdorf's district remain's largely the same, but gets rid of Menomonee, which is a big source of Democratic votes. I could not get Moore out because both she and Harsdorf live in River Falls. Obama 49.1 McCain 48.9

23rd (Aquamarine): Moulton's district gets a point more Democratic by losing northern Eau Claire and some rural territory. However, at 54.5 Obama 43.7 McCain, it would still be a tossup and vulnerable to a takeover or a recall. State Rep Mark Radcliffe of Black River Falls (just barely in the district) would be a spirited challenger.

24th (Blue Violet): Lassa's district remains the same, centered in Wisconsin Rapids and Steven's Point, with a 58.9-39.1 Obama McCain performance. Still Safe D and in the even of Lassa running for higher office, there is a strong bench in Louis Molepske and Ann Sue Vruwink.

25th (Pale Violet Red): Same as above with Jauch remaining with his Iron Range district. 58.4 O 40.1 M

29th (Dark Sea Green): Galloway's district is also very much the same and with 53 O 45.1 M it would be ripe for a takeover, just like with Moulton's seat.

12th (Cornflower Blue): While looking quite similar, Holperin's district is a bit weaker at 52 O 46.3 M. The loss of Native American areas like Lac de Flambeau and Menomonee County, while not being much numerically, are crucial in this red-leaning marginal district.

Lets Head to the Fox Valley:

1st (Purple): Lasee's district move a bit more into Outagamie County, however at 53.2 -45.3 Obama, it still would be a prime takeover opportunity.

2nd (Teal): Cowles's district become a few points more Republican at 50.9-47.7 Obama, so it would be an uphill climb to try and take this seat over.

9th (Khaki): Leibham's district does not change much. At 53.6-44.9, it would be a good takeover opportunity, but Leibham does have a good hold on the district

18th (Yellow): Now here is where the fun begins. This district swaps Oshkosh for Neenah/Menasha, using water contiguity, so it draws King out and at 50.8-47.5 Obama it would be an uphill climb to take over.

19th (Yellow Green):Here is the second half. While this district does not change much politically, it does include Oshkosh, which would mean Jess King would be in a different district. While she could give a run at Ellis (at 55.2-43.1 Obama), it would have to wait until the recalls next year or until the regular election at 2014.

30th (Light Coral): Hansen's district is the beneficiary of Holperin losing Menomonee County at 58.7-40 Obama, but Green Bay and MeCo have to go somewhere.

Let's head South and West:

11th (Magenta): Kedzie is fine at 40.2-58.6 Obama

13th (Dark Salmon): The home of both Fitzgerald brothers. Obama received a surprising 48.8 to McCain's 49.9. So it could be a potential target, but that would be unlikely given Obama's over performance in the state.

14th (Olive): Olsen's district remain's mostly the same at 53-45.6 Obama, but Fred Clark of Baraboo is excised to the next district.

15th (Dark Orange) Cullen's district is still safe with Janesville and Beloit at 63.3-35 Obama.

16th (Lime): Miller is fine at 67.6-31.2 Obama

17th (Dark Slate Blue): Here is where Fred Clark is. With a 60.4-38.1 performance, no wonder what Dale Schultz voted no on removing collective bargaining. So, when he retires, it would be a prime takeover, but as long as he continues to display some sanity he will be fine.

20th (Pink): Glen "Slob" Grothman is still safe in his 36.5-62.1 Obama district

21st (Maroon): In an effort to improve Van Wanggaard, this district loses most of the city of Racine (he still lives in the part of the Racine in this district) and gains some rural territory in Kenosha. At 49.3-49.3 Obama, he is much safer.

22nd (Cyan): Those parts of Racine have to go somewhere and they go to Wirch. At 65.1-33.4, it is safe. To those who doubt it is contigous, there is actually a narrow voting ward to goes up the lake from Kenosha to the county border. Also, if you look up Peter Barca's district, he for some reason, has this ward (Town of Somers ward 8)

26th: Risser is fine at 81-17.4 Obama

27th: Ditto with Erpenbach 66.7-32 Obama

28th: Lazich district changes to include Oak Creek and South Milwaukee (explained later) but she is fine at 43-55.8 Obama

33: This district looks a bit weird because I wanted to maintain towns as much as possible, but Zipperer is fine at 38.1-60.7 Obama

31st (Orange): What a district this is. Combining Menomonee, Eau Clair, and La Crosse into one district produced a sort of Dem vote sink at 62.8-35.5 Obama. Schilling and Vinehout live here.

32 (Navajo White): With some creative gerrymandering, Kapanke lives here in a last ditch effort to save his seat. While it is more Republican at 57-41.4 Obama, I have a hard time thinking he will last.

Finally, we go to Milwaukee for some real fun:

3rd (Blue): With getting the most Democratic wards out of Greenfield and West Allis, Carpenter is fine at 65.8-32.7 Obama

4th (Red): Taylor is safe at 84.6-14.5 Obama, majority Black district, the most Democratic in the state

5th (Slate Blue): This district switches from a marginal to a safe Republican seat at 45.5-53.2 Obama. Vukmir can continue all her craziness as long as she wants.

6th (Yellow): Cogg's district has to expand due to population loss, but taking in West Milwaukee and eastern portions of Wauwatosa (which are both Democratic by the way) still leaves him with a majority Black and 82.1-17.1 Obama district.

7th (Chartreuse): Larson's district losses Oak Creek and South Milwaukee so it can soak up all of the most Democratic sections of Darling's district, that being Milwaukee and the most of the North Shore suburbs. At 66.7-31.7 Obama, this district becomes even more Democratic.

8th (Green): I do not think any district has as much of partisan change as Darling's. She goes from a 51-47 Obama district to a 37.9-60.9 Obama district. So safe R and no Senate district in the Milwaukee area would be competitive. Additionally, Pasch lives in this district.

To wrap up, this would try to secure the 19-14 majorities in the Senate. However, the seats held by Kapanke, Schultz, Ellis, Moulton, Lasee, and Galloway would be considered vulnerable and Holperin would have a more difficult task in holding his seat. Thus, this may seem like a dummymander, but due to the purple nature of the State outside of Madison and Milwaukee Metro, there is only so much Republicans can do to shore up all of the seats. However, I do maintain that at least putting the seats held by Darling, Van Wanggaard, and Vukmir out of play would be a step forward.