Given my previous diaries have been very messy gerrymanders of the Wisconsin State Senate and the potential of a court drawn map, I was a wondering, can there be a relatively clean map yet provide for a Democratic majority. The answer, depending on your definition of clean, is a resounding yes.
Now the following map makes the very big assumption that big changes to the map can happen. In Wisconsin that is not outside the realm of possibility. In 2001, the Courts had to draw the maps and they made some very significant changes in the Milwaukee area for the state legislative map and in the Congressional map, made the very partisan decision of moving Beloit into Tammy Baldwin's district. So while the map is plausible it not as plausible as BeloitDem's map (http://www.dailykos.com/...).
Overall, with some exemptions, I took into account both current State Senators and, due to the nesting of Assemble seats into Senate seats, current State Representatives. My district ratings are based mostly on the underlying partisanship of the district and what is the likelihood of holding the district throughout the decade.
The North:
SD 25 (Gold): Jauch's district does not change tremendously and thus remains Safe D, even if he does retire soon due to the strong Democratic bench in the district, especially Rep. Nick Milroy. New: 58.3-40.2 Obama Old: 58.9-39.6 Obama
SD 12 (Crimson): The most vulnerable Democrat this summer, Jim Holperin, remains in a marginal district, although it gets slightly better by moving around some townships and moving into Price County to counter population loss. New 53.5-44.8 Obama Old: 52.7-45.7 Obama. Tossup
SD 29 (Dark Sea Green): Pam Galloway's district is smoothed out and just as the 12th gets a little better for Holperin, the 29th gets a little better for Galloway with some township swaps. New 52.5-45.6 Obama Old: 53.4-44.7 Obama
SD 24 (Indigo): Julie Lassa's district is not changed that much and remains Safe D even if she were to run for something higher, given (as with the 25th) the strong bench in the district. New 58.9-39.1 Obama Old 59-39 Obama
SD 23 (Aquamarine): Now here is where the cleanliness is debatable, although I think this looks better than the current 29th, so it should pass muster. Moulton's district is predicated on Shelly Moore winning (and with GOP polls putting the race at 49-47, that is a definite possibility). However, if Harsdorf wins, I probably change this area to BeloitDem's 23rd and 10th, which is more what is currently is. So for this district I swapped the purple and blue parts of Chippewa and Dunn counties (including Chippewa Falls and part of Eau Claire) for the reddish Polk and St. Croix counties. As a result the district moves from 55.1-43.1 Obama to 49.2-48.8 Obama so a district that could be won by a Democrat (such as Ann Hraychuck) but would be an uphill climb to win and hold. Likely R
SD 10 (Deep Pink): As this district would be predicated on a Moore victory, she would be rewarded by retaining River Falls, Menomonee, and the most Democratic parts of St Croix county and gaining Chippewa Falls and part of Eau Claire. By moving from 50.1-47.9 Obama to 56.3-41.8 Obama, this district becomes one which can fall to a Republican, but would require probably a 2010 scenario for that to occur. Likely Dem.
Here is a close-up to show how the cities are divided, with SD 10 changing to Lime so that the city lines could be seen easier:
SD 31 (Medium Blue): If Vinehout could not be taken out last year, she is solid in a district that does not change that much. Additionally, given the strong Democratic bench it should stay in Democratic hands. It could be won by a Republican, like a Dale Schultz, but it is becoming more likely that a Dale Schultz could not make it out of a Republican primary. It moves from 57.8-40.6 Obama to 57.3-41.2 Obama. Likely/Safe Dem
The Fox Valley:
SD 30 (Blue Violet): Hansen's district shifts from going up to Marinette to going up to Door County. I did this for the reason of protecting Hansen because the area he takes is more Democratic. I would dip into Twin Rivers for good measure but that would be too messy. From 56.5-42.1 Obama to 58.2-40.4 Obama I would say Safe D.
SD 1 (Goldenrod): Lasee becomes a beneficiary of Hansen taking Door and Kewaunee counties by moving further into Calumet, Outagamie, and Brown Counties. Moves from 53.4-45.1 to 51.7-46.7 Obama so it is still a Tossup.
SD 2 (Dodger Blue): Cowles also benefits from taking in some Brown, Oconto, and Marinette County sections of Hansen's district. But, as with Lasee, it does move from 52.4-46.2 Obama to 50.7-47.9 Obama so it still remains Tossup.
SD 9 (Deep Sky Blue): Leibham's district expands to include Twin Rives so it becomes a little more Democrat by moving from 52.6-45.9 to 53.5-44.9. While Leibham is pretty popular in the district, given his likely ascension to Congress when Petri retires, this would be a prime pickup opportunity. Tossup.
SD 18 (Spring Green): What is likely to become Jess King's district (due to Hopper's unpopularity) becomes slightly better from 51.3-47.3 Obama to 52.1-46.4 Obama, it would be tough to hold. Hopefully, Oshkosh will continue to trend D and improve this district. Tossup.
SD 19 (Yellow): Ellis remains in a district that is one of the most Democratic held by a Republican and given the growth and D trend in Appleton, would be a prime target, although he has a lot of personal popularity. It shifts from 54.0-44.1 Obama to 55.1-43 Obama so Tossup.
The South:
SD 11 (Light Sky Blue): Not much changes for Kedzie. Remains Safe R at 39.9-58.8 Obama.
SD 13 (Forest Green): Fitzgerald might be vulnerable in that this seat shifts from 47.8-50.8 Obama to 48.3-50.3, it would be a tough slog to win and retain. State Rep Andy Jorgensen might give this a go and Fitz might have been dragged in the mud too much, but I would still rate this at Likely R.
SD 14 (Cornflower Blue): Should Fred Clark be victorious over Luther Olsen (and polls are showing Olsen in a vulnerable position), his reward will not be as sweet as Moore's but still a district he could hold. Given population growth around Madison, the district has to expand southward and thus, shifts from 51.8-46.7 Obama to 53.3-45.3 Obama. Thus, easier for Clark but still Tossup
SD 15 (Blue Violet): Cullen is safe in this Beloit, Whitewater, Janesville district at 63.3-35 Obama. Safe D
SD 16 (Orange): Miller's district has to shrink and at 68.8-29.9 Obama it remains Safe D.
SD 17: (Teal): While with Schultz at the helm, it is Tossup at best, given that the district is 60.5-38 Obama (and remains that way), the underlying partisan dynamics of the district (which is what I am basing my judgements) indicate Safe D.
SD 20 (Pink): Grothman is Safe R at 36.8-61.9 Obama.
SD 21 (Dark Orange): Van Wanggaard's district is, in addition to the 23rd, the most debatable in terms of cleanliness. By swapping most of ruby red rural Racine county with light red South Milwaukee and Oak Creek, this district shifts from 55.3-43.4 Obama to 58.5-40.1 Obama so I would say Safe D and would be perfect for Rep. Cory Mason.
Here is a close-up:
SD 22 (Teal) Wirch's district shifts around some wards for population purposes. By losing some red rural areas, it moves from 57.1-41.3 Obama to 58-40.3 Obama. So it could be vulnerable, but unlikely. So Safe/Likely D.
SD 26 (Yellow): For Risser or whoever replaces him, it is safe D at 80.4-17.9 Obama.
SD 27 (Lime): Ditto for Erpenbach at 66.4-32.4 Obama. Safe D
SD 28 (Purple): This district loses some of the Milwaukee suburbs to help Vukmir (explained below), but gains the rural areas from the 21st as described above. So it is safe for Lazich at 38.4-60.5 Obama. Safe R
SD 32 (Orange Red): It is really hard to fathom a scenario where Kapanke holds on, so I will say Schilling is Safe D at 60.9-37.5 Obama.
SD 33 (Olive) Zipperer takes in parts of Germantown and Menomonee Falls to help (hopefully) Pasch, which is described later, and remains Safe R at 36.3-62.5 Obama. Actuall steals safest Republican district from Grothman.
And finally to Milwaukee County:
SD 3 (Blue): The rationale for this district shifting North into West Allis is that this helps out State Rep. Tony Staskunas. His marginal district has to gain population and it would become safer by moving east rather than west to take up West Milwaukee and more Democratic parts of Milwaukee. Overall Carpenter is Safe D at 63.3-35.1. Additionally, while it is still white majority VAP (52.4-37.8 percent), overall there is a Hispanic plurality (44.6-44.3), so this could become a majority Hispanic State Senate seat by the end of the decade.
SD 4 (Red): Taylor's district retains a majority AA VAP (57.2 VAP) district and the safest Democrat in the state at 87.1-12 Obama. Safe D
SD 5 (Gold): Given population loss, there is the choice of the 5th and 8th SDs shifting further out and thus becoming more Republican or sacrificing one to make the other more Democratic. I chose the latter and chose to help Vukmir. This district changes incredibly by losing the 13 and 15th ADs, gaining Greendale, Hales Corners, western Greenfield, portions of Waukesha and New Berlin, and the entirety of Brookfield. Thus it shifts from 51.4-47.1 Obama to 40.4-58.5 Obama. Safe R
SD 6 (Green): This and the 4th are caught up in the bind of helping to firm up the 8th, taking in population to combat population decline, all the while remaining majority AA. Lena Taylor does this by gaining the portion of Milwaukee between Wauwatosa and West Allis. Coggs does this by gaining portions of Wauwatosa (which actually liberates a fair number of Wauwatosa Democrats, including myself). The reason I flipped a lot of their territory is that this was the best way of ensuring clean districts, majority AA districts (given the distribution of AAs in Milwaukee), and districts that have their home in them. Nevertheless, Coggs will be fine 77.8-21.4 Obama and majority AA VAP at 50.8 percent. Safe D.
SD 7 (Cyan): Larson has to gain an assembly district and gains Krusick's. He still retains his Bayview and Eastside base and is fine at 60.6-37.7 Obama. Safe D
SD 8 (Chartreuse): Just like the 10th is predicated on Moore winning, this 8th is predicated on Pasch winning, which will be tough but Darling is considered to be vulnerable. If she were to win, she would be rewarded handsomely. Her district moves from 51.4-47.4 Obama to 56.3-42.6 Obama. This is achieved by losing Richfield, parts of Menomonee Falls and Germantown and gaining the rest of Glendale and parts of Milwaukee. While this is the same Obama percentage as the 10th, this is much safer due to greater polarization in the Milwaukee area. There tends to be more swing voters in the outstate area than in Milwaukee. That is why the swings in the inner ring suburbs were around 6 percent, while the swings outstate were 10-12 percent. 56 percent in Milwaukee area is firmer than say 56 percent in the North. In fact, while Lassa, Wirch, and Vinehout currently have districts that have a greater Obama percentage, Walker won their districts while Barrett would have won this district (albeit by a slim margin like 50.01 percent, but nevertheless he won it). So I would rate this as Safe/Likely Dem.
Here is an overall graphic demonstration of the changes:
This map should produce a 18-7-8 map. It really demonstrates the strength of the Republicans in the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs and Twin Cities exurbs; the Democratic strength in Milwaukee, Madison area, the Southwest, and extreme North; and the swinginess elsewhere.
Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 6:02 AM PT: I actually shifted some towns and cities around central Wisconsin and the Fox Valley:
The updated numbers are:
SD 1: 52.4-46.1 Obama, so it little more Democratic but still Tossup
SD 2: 50.9-47.7 Around the same Tossup/Lean R
SD 13: 47.6-51 Obama so probably Likely/Safe R
SD 14: 54.2-44.4 Obama so still Tossup but a becomes a couple points easier for a Democrat like Clark to hold
SD 16: 69 Obama and SD 27: 66.3 Safe D
SD 19: 54.3-43.8 Obama so somewhat better for Ellis but still a prime target and Tossup