To provide some balance to my diary yesterday showing what a Republican redistricting of the Wisconsin State Senate would look like, I think it would be appropriate to show what a Democratic redistricting would look like. Like yesterday, I will start in the North, go the Fox Valley, head South and West, and then finish in Milwaukee.
The North:
10th (Magenta): What hopefully will be Shelly Moore's district becomes more Democratic by going east and picking up the rest of Dunn County and parts of Eau Claire. While at 54.5-43.7 Obama it will still be marginal, it is better than the 50.1-47.9.
23rd (Navajo White): Moulton's district gets significantly more Republican as it heads to the Minnesota border. McCain actually won this district 49.4-48.6
24th (Purple): Lassa's district remains the same as yesterday and what is presently is, centered in Wisconsin Rapids and Steven's Point, with a 58.9-39.1 Obama McCain performance. Still Safe D and in the even of Lassa running for higher office, there is a strong bench in Louis Molepske and Ann Sue Vruwink.
25th (Aquamarine): Same as above with Jauch remaining with his Iron Range district. 58.9 O 39.5 M
29th (Dark Sea Green): Galloway's district changes significantly with the loss of Wausau and the gain of rural areas. It is now a barely an Obama district at 49.5-48.7, so an uphill marginal.
12th (Crimson): Wausau has to go somewhere and it goes to significantly help Holperin, who goes from a 52.7-47 Obama district to a 56.4-41.9 Obama district. So it can still be vulnerable, but Holperin would be in a much better position.
Now to the Fox Valley:
1st (Orange Red): Lasee and Leibham are now drawn together in a 49.9-48.6 Obama district, so whoever wins the primary will likely be the winner in the general.
2nd (Goldenrod): Cowles's district gets much safer by losing some of urban areas of the Fox Valley and gaining some rural. Its 49.3-49.2, so likely R.
9th (Deep Sky Blue): Leibham's former district changes significantly. Before it contained Manitowoc and Sheboygan, both very Democratic. However, instead of taking in Republican rural areas of their respective counties, it goes north to Door and Kewaunee counties, which are either more Democratic or less Republican. At 57-41.4, it would be likely Democratic gain and hold.
18th (Spring Green): My map assumes that King would win, which would be better because her home of Oshkosh is more Democratic than Fond Du Lac. Oshkosh, combined with the urban areas along the Fox River (Neenah, Menasha, Appleton, Kimberly, Little Chute, and Kaukauna) provide for a reliable 61.5-36.7 Obama district.
19th (Maroon): With the lose of most of Neenah, Menasha, and Appleton, and gain of of Fondy and rural areas, Ellis' district changes significantly to a 50.3-48.2 McCain district.
30th (Royal Blue): Squeezing the most Democratic parts out of the Green Bay area provide Hansen and more comfortable 58.3-40.4 Obama district.
We head to the South and West:
11th (Deep Pink): Kedzie is fine at 39.6-59.1 Obama
13th (Forest Green): The home of both Fitzgerald brothers actually gets safer under the Democratic map with 51.7-47 McCain performance.
14th (Cornflower Blue): Again, this map makes the assumption that Clark wins. This district swaps population with Schultz's district to make both safer for their respective parties. Clark heads southwest, while Schultz heads to the northeast. In fact, the partisan performance flips because at 62.2-36.5 Obama, it is very much like the current 17th. Another note, this district is 95.4 percent white VAP, 94.3 percent overall and yet it voted 62.2 percent with Obama. This is one of the rare places outside the Northeast and in a rural area that this can occur.
15th (Blue Violet): Like yesterday, Cullen's district is still safe with Janesville and Beloit at 63.2-35.2 Obama.
16th (Dark Orange): Miller is fine at 66.9-31.7 Obama
17th (Yellow Green): This is the the second half above and just as the current 17th and new 14 were both over 60 Obama, the current 14th and new 17th are around the same at 52.5-46 Obama. So Schultz should be fine (although he may be vulnerable to a primary challenge considering his vote on collective bargaining).
20th (Pink): Glen "Slob" Grothman is still safe in his 36.8-61.9 Obama district
21st (Maroon): I kept the configurations of this and the 22nd mostly the same for today mostly because just as Republicans would want to protect Wanggaard, the Dem would want to protect Wirch. So VW gets a 48.7-49.9 Obama district, so it is slightly more Republican, but nevertheless safe for him.
22nd (Teal): The same result as yesterday, Wirch becomes safe at 65.1-33.4 Obama.
Here is a closeup showing contiguity because Racine and Kenosha again:
26th (Yellow): Risser is fine at 80-18.4 Obama
27th (Lime): Ditto with Erpenbach at 67.4-31.4 Obama
28th (Purple): Ditto with Lazich at 60.7-38.2 McCain
33th (Olive): Ditto with Zipperer at 61.1-37.7 McCain
31st (Blue Violet): Ditto with Vinehout at 59.5-38.9 Obama
32 (Yellow): Ditto with (presumably) Schilling (well like the other seats the map is assuming a Schilling win): at 60.8-37.6 Obama
Just like yesterday, we have some more fun with Milwaukee:
3rd (Blue): This district shows a huge disparity in the VAP and overall numbers. Overall, it is plurality Hispanic at 46.1 H, 42.5 W, while the VAP is barely majority white at 39.2 H, 50.8 W, even with all the Hispanic areas in one district. So it is likely to become a majority Hispanic VAP (or at least plurality) by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, Carpenter is fine at 63.9-34.7 Obama
4th (Red): In order to make the 8th Democratic (see below) Taylor and Coggs have to shift south. But while Taylor takes up Republican Butler, that is more compensated by Milwaukee and east Wauwatosa. It still is majority AA VAP at 50.2, 54.2 overall and is still strong Dem at 77.8-21.3 Obama
5th (Gold): This district switches from a marginal to a safe Republican seat at 41.4-57.3 Obama. Vukmir can continue all her craziness as long as she wants.
6th (Green): Like Taylor, Coggs has to expand to white areas in order to boost the 8th. However, again, the district is still majority AA at 50.5 VAP, 55 AA overall. Also, the areas it takes in, West Milwaukee and east West Allis, are Democratic. Anyways, Coggs has the most Democratic district in the state at 84.4-14.6 Obama
7th (Cyan): Larson's district is basically the same in composition and partisanship at 59.6-38.7 I am worried by the growth and increasing Republican trend in the southern suburbs, but that is compensated by the growth in downtown Milwaukee, the Third Ward, and the East Side.
8th (Chartreuse): Just like the map yesterday, I had the most fun with this district. This is my favorite district because it is quite compact, but by dropping the Waukesha county portion and gaining northwest Milwaukee, the district shifts from 51-47 Obama to 60.5-38.5 Obama. So, another big shift, but in the Dems favor. While Pasch does have an uphill climb against Darling, this district would suit Pasch wonderfully.
Overall the Dems have the potential to gain 6 seats of which four seats (8th, 14th, 18th, and 32nd) would be pretty easy gains/retains. Additionally this provided for more Democratic districts for their incumbents.
Updated by glame at Thu May 12, 2011 at 05:49 PM CDT
One facet of Wisconsin redistricting is that each Senate district is comprised of 3 Assembly districts. I was largely cognizant of this in order to avoid conflicts with incumbents, particularly Democrats to ensure that each Assembly rep still had a district. However, I initially put Tony Staskunas (Dem-15 AD) of West Allis in an assembly district he could not win (would have voted for McCain). So, I modified Vukmir's (5th SD) district to provide for a district that Staskunas is familiar with and can win. This map still produces two majority AA senate seats and while the 8th SD had to a take a hit, it still is at 58 percent Obama so it should still be a seat Democrats can easily gain and retain.