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8:40 AM PT: NY-11: Republican Rep. Mike Grimm surrendered to the FBI on Monday—a bit ironic, since he was once a bureau agent himself—and the charges against him were unsealed. Even though Grimm had long been suspected of campaign finance violations, it turns out that the U.S. Attorney has accused Grimm of underreporting wages at a restaurant he ran in Manhattan before he was elected to Congress. You can read the complete, 20-count indictment here, which also includes charges that Grimm lied to investigators to conceal his alleged misdeeds. Those perjury and obstruction allegations can often be what really sinks a suspect.

9:45 AM PT: LA-05: Republican Rep. Vance McAllister, forever immortalized on security camera footage as the "kissing congressman," has decided not to seek re-election, according to the Monroe News-Star. He does, however, say he won't resign and plans to finish out his term.

Last year, McAllister, a wealthy businessman who owns an oil company and several restaurant franchises, won a major upset in a special election to replace ex-Rep. Rodney Alexander. McAllister defeated a fellow Republican, state Sen. Neil Riser, who had the backing of the entire GOP establishment. But in part by campaigning in favor of accepting federal Medicaid expansion funds, McAllister prevailed in the runoff, which was open to voters of all parties. (McAllister was also endorsed by Willie Robertson, star of the popular reality show Duck Dynasty, which is based in the district.)

In his very brief tenure, McAllister's most notable pre-scandal moment came in January, when he declared that his new job as a congressman "sucks" and "ain't no fun." Perhaps a bit presciently, though, he also added, "But the day I start enjoying it in Washington, D.C., is the day that I should come home."

And now, indeed, he'll be coming home for good. Earlier this month, an unknown someone with an axe to grind leaked a video of McAllister making out with a staffer at his district office in Monroe. Both McAllister and the aide are married (to other people, natch). Even in notoriously forgiving Louisiana, the fact that the indiscretion was actually caught on tape was just too much, particularly since McAllister ran as a family values Christian conservative, and high-level Republicans quickly called for his resignation.

McAllister, though, initially struck a defiant tone and insisted he'd stay in office and even run for another term. But sharks started to gather and one Republican candidate had already launched a campaign to unseat the incumbent, with many others still considering. (In this dark red district, a Republican is all but certain to succeed McAllister.) Evidently, McAllister finally succumbed to reality, realizing his chances at winning another term were remote at best. The scrutiny probably wasn't much fun, either. And now it's time we all blow him a kiss goodbye.

9:52 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Primaries: Despite Congress' considerable unpopularity, most House members have little to no opposition for renomination. However, every cycle at least a few unfortunate representatives find themselves tossed out of office in a primary. We take a look at the House members who will have to fight for renomination.

10:09 AM PT: IA-Gov, -Sen: Whaddya know. We've got another poll showing GOP Gov. Terry Branstad in surprisingly weak shape against his unheralded Democratic challenger, state Sen. Jack Hatch, and this time it's from a Republican outfit. In fact, the survey in question was conducted by Vox Populi, Mary Cheney's new firm, on behalf of the conservative Daily Caller, and it finds Branstad with a small 45-43 edge on Hatch, by far the narrowest lead he's ever held. However, a recent PPP poll put Branstad up just 43-38, and five straight polls now have put him in the mid-to-low 40s.

As for the Senate race, the Daily Caller went cheap and didn't test Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley against the field. Rather, they paired him with the generic "Republican candidate" and find him up 42-41.

10:16 AM PT: Meanwhile, Senate hopeful Mark Jacobs, has decided to join the Steve Southerland/Phil Gingrey Brotherhood of Underpaid Congressmen:

Here's GOP Senate candidate Mark Jacobs on whether he would forgo his Senate salary if he wins the office: "I don't think U.S. senators make that much money, but again, you know, I'm willing to make significant investment of my time and energy here to help solve the problems we have in this country. (Jacobs' campaign later clarified: "He's never really looked into how much U.S. senators make. The point he was trying to make is that no matter what U.S. senators make, he's not doing it for the money.")
Jacobs, a wealthy businessman who has given his own campaign over $1.6 million, is one of two frontrunners for the Republican nod. We'll see if his chief rival, state Sen. Joni Ernst, tries to make hay out of this blunder.

10:24 AM PT: UT-04: Despite bungling what looked like a sure win last cycle, and despite the fact that Utah's 4th Congressional District unexpectedly opened up late last year when Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson announced his retirement, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love easily earned the GOP nomination once again at her party's convention over the weekend. Love took 78 percent of the delegates' vote, compared to just 22 percent for businessman Bob Fuehr, meaning she cleared the 60 percent threshold necessary to avoid a primary.

Love will face attorney Doug Owens, son of ex-Rep. Wayne Owens, in November. But with Matheson gone, Democrats' chances of holding this 67 percent Romney seat are nil, and Daily Kos Elections rates the race as Safe Republican, giving the GOP an automatic pickup.

10:54 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Colorado: Filing closed for the state's June 24 primary in early April, and we now have an official candidate list.

Several Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. They are former Rep. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez; Secretary of State Scott Gessler; former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp; and former Rep. and 2010 third-party gubernatorial nominee Tom Tancredo. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Lean Democratic.

The state will also have races for other statewide offices. Each party has one candidate for secretary of state and treasurer (with former Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey running for the latter office). The Republicans have a primary for attorney general, with state House Minority Leader Mark Waller taking on Deputy Attorney General Cynthia Coffman. The winner will face Democrat and former Adams County District Attorney Don Quick.

Turning to federal races, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall will face a challenge from sophomore Republican Rep. Cory Gardner. Both Udall and Gardner are unopposed in the primary, and we rate the general as Lean Democratic.  

Four Republicans are running to succeed Gardner in the Fourth District. They are 2010 Senate nominee Ken Buck; Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer; Steve Laffey, a former Rhode Island mayor; and state Sen. Scott Renfroe. Romney won 59-39 here, and we rate the general as Safe Republican.  

The rest of the state's delegation is running, and two Republicans have to fight to keep their seats. In the 3rd District, Rep. Scott Tipton will face former Democratic state Sen. Abel Tapia in a contest we rate as Likely Republican. In the swingy 6th District, Rep. Mike Coffman (the husband of the aforementioned Cynthia Coffman) is being challenged by former Democratic House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. This is going to be one of the most expensive contests in the nation, and we rate it as a Tossup.  

10:57 AM PT: NY-Sen: Here's an interesting piece from Capital New York that delves into the backstory behind then-Gov. David Paterson's decision to tap Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, after Clinton was confirmed as secretary of state in 2009. The article was occasioned by Paterson's release of 56 boxes of papers from his administration, which include materials on the appointment process.

At the time, Paterson handled the affair poorly, making a series of contradictory public remarks before finally settling on Gillibrand. Now, though, he's offering some candid commentary to go along with this document dump, including the fact that he handicapped every scenario with Andrew Cuomo—even though Cuomo was among those under consideration. But Cuomo, Paterson says, didn't "push" for the job, and he understood Paterson's desire to name a woman to the post.

11:05 AM PT: NY-11: Of course, none of this means that the campaign finance inquiry is over. Quite the contrary: It may well be that prosecutors figure they have Grimm dead to rights on the restaurant business and are hoping to package everything up into one tidy plea deal. Grimm, though, is showing no signs of caving, saying he won't resign and will seek re-election. Of course, that's what you'd expect him to say. He can always roll over later.

11:21 AM PT: NH-Sen: This is some pretty awesome word salad from Scott Brown, expounding on health care reform:

I've always felt that people should either get some type of health care options, or pay for it with a nice competitive fee. That's all great. I believe it in my heart. In terms of pre-existing conditions, catastrophic coverage, covering kids—whatever we want to do, we can do it. As a matter of fact, in New Hampshire, I would encourage everybody to do a New Hampshire plan that works for New Hamphsire, that deals with individual freedoms, and doesn't have mandates put on by bureaucrats in Washington ... a plan that is good for New Hampshire ... can include the Medicaid expansion folks who need that care and coverage."

11:26 AM PT: NC-06: A Public Opinion Strategies internal poll for Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. finds him with a 36-14 lead on Baptist pastor Mark Walker with just a week to go before the GOP primary. Two other candidates were at 6 percent apiece, though there are nine total Republicans running in this race to succeed retiring Rep. Howard Coble. That makes it trickier for Berger to avoid a runoff, but he only needs 40 percent to do so, and if his own numbers are accurate, he's very close.

11:29 AM PT: ME-Sen: Rasmussen: Shenna Bellows (D): 24, Susan Collins (R-inc): 60.

11:45 AM PT: GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn features her father, ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, in her newest ad and says she tried to follow in her dad's footsteps—playing basketball, not in politics. (Pops once led his high school team to a state championship.) Nunn goes on to talk about her charitable work running "President Bush's Points of Light Foundation."

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel also has a new TV spot, taking aim at her GOP primary opponents as "career congressmen" or, in the case of David Perdue, an "out-of-touch millionaire elitist." Handel then mentions she "left a troubled home at 17" but "beat the odds" and eventually went on to implement "Georgia's tough voter I.D. law."

11:50 AM PT: WI-Gov: A Republican media buying firm that bought air time in Wisconsin for the RGA earlier this year has now made a $1.9 million TV reservation for the final two months of the campaign. It's not known whether Target Enterprises' client is once again the RGA, but with GOP Gov. Scott Walker only riding a narrow lead in the polls, it's a pretty reasonable bet.

11:56 AM PT: OH-14: While Rep. David Joyce is likely to cruise to renomination against state Rep. Matt Lynch in next week's GOP primary, the American Hospital Association is nevertheless helping him out with a $115,000 flight of television ads. The spots do not appear to be available online.

12:13 PM PT: CA-31: California's top-two primary is now just five weeks away, and the two leading Democrats in the race have both just launched their first TV ads. Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar's spot features his two grandmothers who pepper him with questions, like "You're going to protect Medicare and Social Security?" and "You'll still answer me when I call you 'Petey Pie'?"

Attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, meanwhile, goes the biographical route, describing how she moved up from farming onions during summers as a teenager to becoming "the first Latina to ever open a law firm in San Bernardino County." Says Reyes: "I made the journey, but for people these days, that journey has become so much harder."

12:16 PM PT: CO-Sen: In a new ad, the League of Conservation Voters accuses the "out-of-state oil billionaire Koch brothers" of running a "smear campaign" because GOP Rep. Cory Gardner "voted to keep giving billions in special taxpayer-funded subsidies to oil companies."

12:25 PM PT: MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. John Walsh launched two new ads on Monday. In the first, Walsh, a former commander of the Montana National Guard, touts his sponsorship of the Suicide Prevention for America's Veterans Act as he rides his motorcycle through the countryside with some fellow enthusiasts. The second extensively discusses Walsh's military service (this time featuring him on a bicycle), including leading combat troops in Iraq.

12:59 PM PT: Polls: A conservative group called the Liberty Foundation just dumped a huge batch of polls conducted mid-month by Republican pollster Magellan Strategies, with PDFs that seem designed to mimic PPP's very closely. However, no crosstabs are provided, and they only tested one matchup for every race, even in contests where there are unsettled primaries. But in any event, here are all the numbers:

AK-Sen: Mark Begich (D-inc): 41, Dan Sullivan (R): 46

AR-Sen: Mark Pryor (D-inc): 43, Tom Cotton (R): 46

CO-Sen: Mark Udall (D-inc): 45, Cory Gardner (R): 42

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 50, Bob Beauprez (R): 35

FL-Gov: Charlie Crist (D): 43 (D), Rick Scott (R-inc): 45

IA-Sen: Bruce Braley (D): 40, Mark Jacobs (R): 41

LA-Sen: Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 42, Bill Cassidy (R): 44

MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D): 46, Terri Lynn Land (R): 41

MI-Gov: Mark Schauer (D): 42, Rick Snyder (R): 45

NC-Sen: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 43

OH-Gov: Ed FitzGerald (D): 41, John Kasich (R-inc): 47

WI-Gov: Mary Burke (D): 47, Scott Walker (D-inc): 47

Most of these numbers make rough sense, though some seem a bit too bearish for Democrats (like IA-Sen) and some look very optimistic (such as WI-Gov, the first non-Rasmussen poll to find a tie). There's also the eyebrow-raising FL-Gov results, which give Scott the largest lead he's ever seen; in fact, this is only the second poll ever to show him ahead. And in Colorado, the huge spread between Udall and Hickenlooper is a bit hard to figure. Will there really be a lot of Gardner-Hickenlooper voters this fall? Still, plenty to chew over here.

1:07 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: No doubt you're by now familiar with the idea that Democrats suffer from the lower turnout associated with midterm elections, largely because the "ascendant electorate" (young, single female, and/or non-white voters) who are disproportionately likely to vote for Dem presidential candidates and also less likely to be midterm voters. An sidebar accompanying Sasha Issenberg's new long-form piece for the New Republic, though, presents data that puts this disparity between "reflex" (who vote every two years) and "unreliable" voters in very sharp relief.

For example, reflex voters average age 58, while unreliable voters average 43. 53 percent of reflex voters are female, while 56 percent of unreliable voters are female. 77 percent of reflex voters are white, while 68 percent of unreliable voters are white. 52 percent of reflex voters say they're likely to vote Republican, while 38 percent of unreliable voters say they're likely to vote Republican, and 51 percent of reflex voters identify as conservative, while 34 percent of unreliable voters identify as conservative.

It's well worth reading the entire piece, especially if you haven't read Issenberg's 2013 book The Victory Lab, which is about the increasing scientification of predicting and driving turnout; the article, for the most part, is a distillation of the book and a helpful primer. The good news is that this is an area of inquiry where the Democrats have really been leading the way, and the 2014 election is the first midterm where they're really striving to put large amounts of money into pushing face-to-face voter contacts, targeted mailings, and the like, instead of just throwing more money at TV ads. (The bad news, of course, is the numbers shown above, and just how steep the dropoff between on- and off-year electorates is.)

1:08 PM PT: FL-13: Attorney Jessica Ehrlich, who ran a creditable campaign against the late Rep. Bill Young in 2012 but was shunted aside by the Democratic establishment in favor of Alex Sink in the special election earlier this year, has decided against seeking this seat once more this fall. There's a new possible name on the horizon, though: wealthy developer Joel Cantor, who is apparently considering a bid against GOP Rep. David Jolly, according to the DCCC.

1:23 PM PT: LA-Sen: Patriot Majority, one of the big pro-Democratic super PACs, is running a new ad hammering GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy for supporting cuts to school funding and Pell grants, with a quick mention of the Kochs thrown in at the end. Sen. Mary Landrieu also has a new positive spot, featuring a local businessman Boysie Bollinger, who explains: "I don't usually make TV ads—I make boats! Big ones!" Bollinger goes on to say that he's a Republican but supports Landrieu because of what she's done (and can do) for the state, including the fact that she's now chair of the Energy Committee, "the most powerful position a person can have for Louisiana."

1:25 PM PT: AK-Sen: We don't usually mention radio ads in the Digest (there are just too many of them), but here's an unusual spot from Democratic Sen. Mark Begich that explicitly calls out his GOP opponents for opposing "a woman's right to choose," as well as "equal pay for women."

1:28 PM PT: AR-Sen: In his latest ad, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor explains that he's written legislation to make it harder to raise eligibility age for Medicare, and accuses his GOP opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, of wanting to hike it to 70.

1:31 PM PT: NH-Sen: Meanwhile, the Senate Majority PAC takes a double whack at Brown in their newest ad, accusing him of being a shill for big oil and shopping around for a new Senate seat while toting his "Big Oil baggage."

1:40 PM PT: NE-Sen: In a new ad, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn hits his chief rival, Midland University president Ben Sasse, on an unusual topic for a GOP primary: Obamacare. Osborn says he opposed the law "from the start" but accuses Sasse of "bragging on Obamacare." I can't say I'm familiar with the construction "bragging on," but apparently it means, "express some support for," and Osborn cites various writings by Sasse to argue he's been insufficiently hostile to the ACA.

1:46 PM PT: NC-Sen: Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis has taken a sharp right turn in his latest ad, with just a week to go before the GOP primary. In the spot, he talks about how the legislature, under his leadership, placed a measure to ban same-sex marriage on the ballot (which passed in 2012). He also touts new abortion restrictions he shepherded into law.

1:52 PM PT: NY-Gov: The New York State Democratic Party is running a pair of new ads slamming Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino as an ultra-conservative who violated anti-discrimination laws, stemming from a long-running battle with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The spots cite a New York Times editorial that helps explain the background.

2:06 PM PT: PA-13: We now have TV ads from all four Democratic candidates in next month's primary, with new spots from ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies and physician Valerie Arkoosh. Margolies, in a soft callback to her famous vote in favor of Bill Clinton's 1993 budget, declares that "sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same," and then features footage of ex-Gov. Ed Rendell referencing the same event, along with a still of Clinton endorsing her.

Arkoosh, meanwhile, says her daughter is "excited about my campaign for Congress," as the youngster repeatedly "interrupts" filming to interject her own ideas. I've watched the spot a few times and don't really get the ad's whole shtick. In the middle, Arkoosh says she's "spent her career solving problems," from "the delivery room to helping the president pass health care reform," which gets kind of lost in the noise. Then her daughter's back at the end, insisting they record the whole thing again, only this time, with "more energy." Why would you talk your own ad down like this?

There's also an interesting backgrounder from the Philadelphia Inquirer arguing that the primary, which once looked like Margolies' to lose, is now a truly open four-way affair. There hasn't been any recent polling, but one consultant says: "I can give you a winning scenario for every one of those candidates." That could very well be the case.

2:14 PM PT: MT-AL: Former state Sen. Ryan Zinke spends most of his new ad talking about his grandmother, who was a "frontier schoolhouse teacher" in Montana. He also throws in a reference to his service as a Navy SEAL.

2:18 PM PT: MA-Gov: The super PAC of the National Association of Government Employees is running a new ad attacking Republican Charlie Baker for increasing premiums and dropping coverage while he was CEO of a health insurance company, while at the same time increasing his pay.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:00:16 AM PDT

  •  Rep. Grimm has surrendered to Federal authorities (12+ / 0-)

    This seems like he is likely to resign, and the SI GOP will pick a new candidate to run.

    http://abclocal.go.com/...

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:15:15 AM PDT

  •  AR-Sen: Good to see Pryor going on the offensive (13+ / 0-)

    on protecting Medicare, although I think he could have made the ad more meaty and aggressive

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

  •  PA-13: Table-setter (7+ / 0-)

    1. Arkoosh mailers are hitting Boyle on his pro-life record.

    2. Inq, 22 days to go:

    What was once viewed as a slam-dunk comeback for former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Margolies is turning into a knock-down, drag-out brawl with her three opponents in the 13th Congressional District, political observers say....

    "I can give you a winning scenario for every one of those candidates," said Larry Ceisler, a political consultant who has ties to all four candidates but who said he wasn't backing one over the others. "As we get closer, it's going to tighten up even more," he said....

    Over the last six months, Margolies' fund-raising has not kept up with her spending, and she has been battered by negative reports about her charity, her ex-husband's financial crimes, and her campaign's reliance on the Clintons (Chelsea Clinton is her daughter-in-law).

    Last week, that criticism was amplified when Leach filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, alleging that Margolies misused money designated for the general election.

    Six months ago, "I would have said [Margolies] is a 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 favorite," said Neil Oxman, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with the race. "Given what's happened with her finances, I think she's no longer the front-runner."

  •  When should Dems go hard on Min Wage/Imm. Reform? (0+ / 0-)

    It seems to me that these are our two best issues going into November, the debate on Obamacare's effectiveness aside.  When is a good time for Dems in key states to really start hammering away on this?

    My concern is that doing it too early will be a waste of resources.  The low turnout voters we're going after tend to have shorter political attention spans, and if we were to start advertising about this now, I feel they'd be checked out by November.  But if we can time it right, maybe we can actually peak their interest in November.  

    •  I've suggested (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      clevelandpacha, JDJase

      advocating for something relative simple--a payroll tax cut, more than anything else, perhaps combined with an infrastructure package--as a way of putting the Republicans on defense. A payroll tax cut is something all Democrats can get behind. The administration has announced some infrastructure stuff in the last few months, but I'm talking about something bigger and bolder, or at least something that gets more attention. Why not hold a White House press conference, flanked by leaders of the party, and talk about this?

      A minimum wage increase can be part of this sort of thing.

      Immigration reform is a separate issue, and perhaps something worth shooting for in a political sense, but the shaky economy is probably going to get us more votes.

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:56:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No (0+ / 0-)

        No, it really isn't. Tax cuts are things Republicans support. We support subsidies. We advocate for tax cuts, they hit us on the deficit again.

        And if you recall, one-third of the Stimulus was composed of tax cuts. It didn't sell it to the public.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:03:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The payroll tax cut is very different than a (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JDJase

          Republican tax cut. It disproportionately benefits lower-income earners and puts more money in their pockets via take-home pay, versus a Republican tax cut which gives handouts to the wealthy and corporations. Democrats have long advocated for payroll tax relief. Compounded with the minimum wage, I think it makes for good politics.

          And no, Republicans won't be able to make the deficit accusation against Dems. Remember a couple of years ago (I believe before the 2012 election), Obama forced Republicans to concede on extending the current payroll tax cut, after they blubbered about it for a couple of days. No Republican wants to be caught raising taxes, and this issue puts them on the spot.

        •  Well, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          clevelandpacha

          the tax changes to payroll taxes were credits, not a rate adjustment, which came later as part of the deal in 2010. I suspect part of the reason people didn't support it--and I believe this has been backed up by people looking into it--is that they didn't know they were getting it. A rate change would be seen in a weekly paycheck. A credit is seen when you file your taxes, usually.

          I should also add that, yes, the changes were small. But you could make a bigger change, on both the employee and employer side, and they'd probably get more notice.

          I don't want to go too much more into the policy here, but...let's realize that they are going to hit us no matter what we do. Why not accept that and advocate for a good policy? You can argue that this isn't a good policy, but the way I see it, outside of more direct spending, which might not be possible even for infrastructure, it's the single best tool we have that might make a difference.

          More importantly, at least for DKE, it's a policy that all Democrats, especially red state Democrats, can get behind. Republicans usually advocate for tax cuts, but those that affect those towards the top. If they oppose us, this will help further the contrast between us and them. I mean, there's virtually no chance of this being passed this year, so it's easy to campaign on this--all the while being cagey about the particulars, like how to deal with the SS shortfall.

          "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:34:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't be too sure (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not just against it for political reasons, but also because I think it's bad policy. Not every Democrat can get behind it.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:43:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I get you think it's bad policy, but (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              clevelandpacha

              as I indicated to Mark27 below, I don't think people are going to question the mechanics as long as the checks keep coming, which is what happened last time. After all, it's not like we are going to permanently starve the system for revenue.

              I say it's easy for red state Democrats to get behind because it's not a big, new government program. It's a simple change to the tax system that actually affects people at the bottom. Republicans can protest all they want, but that only helps us in the end.

              "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:48:40 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Not A Fan Of The Payroll Tax Cut...... (5+ / 0-)

        Whatever argument one may want to make about Social Security and Medicare money not being affected by the payroll tax cut, it's bad optics to say out of one side of our mouth that we want benefits untouched and then out of the side of our mouth that we want to cut their funding in half with a payroll tax cut.  If we're looking to cut taxes on the poor, I'd be more inclined to lower the bottom income tax rate.

        •  I think that assumes people have a (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          level of understanding of how this stuff works that they probably don't have. As long as the checks keep coming, they probably won't question anything.

          "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:41:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No they won't, but they also won't... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            ...be all that impressed with "payroll tax cut" as a Band-Aid going forward.

            People want something new that addresses their fear of the future in a more lasting way.  I doubt "payroll tax cut" wins votes, and I doubt it offers much stitmulus that matters at this stage.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:23:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Part of the reason I recommended the payroll (0+ / 0-)

              tax cut is that I figured it'd win us votes. If we were to get back the House, we could do lots of things, including some sort of stimulus, even if we called it something else.

              I'm not saying that would, by itself, do the trick, but I think it would help.

              I also think, if designed properly, it'd be great stimulus, but that's for the policy thread.

              "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:50:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  For immigration reform, I'd wait until (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, LordMike, wadingo, bythesea

      August/September.

      Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers says the House could move an immigration reform bill by August.  Rep. Mario Diaz Balart, one of the most moderate GOP members on the issue, says he thinks they are as close as they've ever been on the issue. Rep. Joe Barton said he would be introducing a comprehensive immigration bill, and of course, you had John Boehner mocking members of his own caucus who dont want to get this done.

      None of this makes me very optimistic that immigration reform will happen before November. I think getting it done before the election this year would actually be a net plus for the GOP in November.

      But there will be loud conservative opposition, which I think will scare off GOP leaders.

      If that happens, then I think Dems can emphasize their differences on the issue in the final stretch of the campaign.

      •  You have to wonder if they have (0+ / 0-)

        an accurate count. If so, what's really stopping them? As I see it, the opposition will be there no matter what, but if it's just loud, the sooner they are finished shrieking, the better. In the end, that a bill has passed counts more than anything else, I'd guess.

        And really, if they don't have the votes, why not let the mess play out now so it's not fresh in the minds of people in November?

        Or maybe they are just going to surprise us all with a shutdown.

        "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:44:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Immigration reform would be a plus for us... (6+ / 0-)

        ...if it gets done before the midterms as angry republican voters probably would stay home in protest.  I suspect if there is any plan to get this done this year, it would be in the lame duck session.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:08:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Definitely agree on the second part (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, JGibson, MichaelNY

          If the House decides to move forward, lame duck definitely seems like the best time to do it. Which is why the July/August talk is puzzling to me.

          On the first point, you may be right. It depends on the reaction of GOP candidates, especially for Senate and especially those that have to vote on the issue(Daines, Cotton, Cassidy, etc).

      •  if the dems want to pass immigration reform (0+ / 0-)

        they have to concede some things to the GOP. Why not have a bill that will legalize all eleven million to satisfy the left but conversely end birthright citizenship for everyone born after 1/1/15 and institute a more merit-based immigration plan to satisfy the right?

        more anti-conservative than liberal

        by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:48:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Don't want to get into policy (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, bythesea, MichaelNY

          But I'll just say it's extremely unlikely Democrats would ever give away that much to Republicans.  A majority of the caucus would never agree to end birthright citizenship, regardless of what Republicans gave up for it.

          It's much more likely immigration reform simply won't happen until Democrats have the trifecta in DC again.

        •  No immigration plan will satisfy the right.... (5+ / 0-)

          ...except for one that only allows immigration by white people.  Ending birthright citizenship would require a constitutional amendment and cause such a rift in our caucus, it would cause more damage to our party than immigration reform as a whole would help.

          We already have a bipartisan deal from 70% of the Senate, and we had to give up "militarization of the border". That is enough.

          "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

          by LordMike on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:41:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you think the right has a problem (0+ / 0-)

            with Vietnamese, Nigerian, Indian etc immigration do you? I don't see how anyone would have a problem with them as they (or at least the ones that come to the u.s.) tend to be highly assimilable.

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:24:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Are they white western europeans? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Dude 415, MichaelNY

              Then the right will have a problem with them, just as the right has always had a problem with them going back 150 years.

              "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

              by LordMike on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:34:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  If we're using the word "assimilable" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              during a discussion of immigration reform, we've wandered pretty far into policy and the discussion should probably move to that thread.

            •  You are naive (6+ / 0-)

              Yes they have a big problem with those groups and all other nonwhite groups.

              They always have, and it hasn't changed.

              They have a problem with Barack Obama and he was born in Hawaii, and many of them refuse to concede even that much.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:31:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  And immigrants from Latin America (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              or other countries aren't?

              Please don't use that bullshit rhetoric of "BUT THEY CAN'T ASSIMILATE!"

              •  isn't it common sense that (0+ / 0-)

                the immigrants you want coming are ones who are the best possible candidates to be the next Mark Zuckerberg, Jonas Salk, Louis Brandeis etc.

                more anti-conservative than liberal

                by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:58:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  The Dude 415, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                  but our point is that there's no reason any of us can think of except race/ethnicity to explain why Nigerians or Vietnamese are more likely to be that than Guatemalans or Dominicans.

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:22:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  and immigrants from Latin America can't be? (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  The Dude 415, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                  this conversation is starting to take an ugly turn with regards to race, as it often does.

                •  That's not my point. (0+ / 0-)

                  However, since jncca and Skaje have both already made my point for me, I'm not going to restate it.

                  I'm still trying to figure out if you genuinely missed said point, since I thought it was stated pretty clearly, or are being intellectually dishonest.

                  •  you're the one who brought up the R word (0+ / 0-)

                    i'm not taking that bait

                    more anti-conservative than liberal

                    by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:04:54 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No one's baiting you when you're being called out (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wwmiv, MichaelNY, Midwest Leftist

                      Your comments were tinged with racial implications and were hence described as being such. This isn't a hard concept to grasp in an Internet forum.

                      This isn't the first time you've done this sort of thing. You've made a whole host of problematic statements here and then proceed to employ plausible deniability to run away from your own opinions. Well that shit doesn't work on DKE.

                      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                      by kurykh on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:32:34 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  This user has taken great pains to disguise his (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, gabjoh

                        quite racialized beliefs, going so far as to abandon his old user name (demographicarmageddon, which has racially exclusionary overtones as well) in favor of something where he can fly more under the radar. Despite everyone here's counsel that he keep his old username in his signature for at least a few months so that current users could adjust and engage with him fully (i.e. understanding who he was and what his history is), he abandoned this within his signature after only two or three weeks - a haste seemingly orchestrated to conceal beliefs that he knows are not welcome in this community.

                        Other users that cause controversy (myself included, frankly... at least I'm not delusional...) often do so not because of what they believe, but because of how they approach talking about what they believe. This user, however, continually makes comments that are in poor taste, nasty, racialized, yet perhaps not quite racist. He straddles the borderline, and should he take any toe further down that continuum I would hope that our moderators would remove him from the community. There is not a single other user here for whom I would make the same suggestion, despite our sometimes acrimonious discussions.

                        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:50:01 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

          •  ah, how the times have changed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:58:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  More like how Harry Reid has changed. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JGibson

              It does fascinate me that amnesty has become a liberal position when unions have historically been strongly against illegal labor.  Would be nice for someone to write a book on the topic and the history if they haven't already.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:48:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Cause they're getting some class consciousness (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                and recognizing that it's better if the undocumented workers are subject to the same minimum wage laws and worker protections as everyone else, so that they can't undercut the position of workers who are already here.

                "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

                by gabjoh on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:43:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  plus (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, gabjoh

                  in general they are not competing for union jobs, and are likely to be open to organizing if they don't have to be in fear of arrest.

                  The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                  by James Allen on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 11:14:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Oh boy, this is so dumb (7+ / 0-)

          Birthright citizenship is Constitutional and cannot be amended by legislation, nor is it something any Democrat would ever give away, nor is it something anyone in communities of color would ever give away.  The desire to remove birthright citizenship is borne 100% of racism, and is unacceptable.  It's not a small thing.

          There is no "compromise" except on greater border security, that's the only giveaway that is politically acceptable to immigrant-heavy populations of voters and to Democrats broadly.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:30:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  think of it this way (0+ / 0-)

            Given that the dems may not control the HOR until the next R presidential midterm, the dems have to take what they can. Would you rather play it safe and accept 20 years in the crowbar hotel or gamble and face life?

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:56:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ending birthright citizenship (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, gabjoh

              explicitly violates the 14th amendment.

              And I'd rather not endorse racist policies.

            •  You are out of touch with all political reality (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PassionateJus, MichaelNY, gabjoh, kurykh

              The GOP's odds of winning the Presidency anytime soon are poor.

              Moreover, the point of immigration reform is to get specific things, not to get "what they can."  Not just any bill is an accomplishment.

              And finally, you really don't seem to get the basic point that birthright citizenship is a Constitutional right and cannot be abridged by legislation.  The provision you advocate would be null and void.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:01:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  it wouldn't apply to all us born children born to (0+ / 0-)

            illegal immigrant parents, it would only apply to those born after 1/1/15. Anyone before that date is grandfathered in.

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 03:43:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  citizenship by birth is one of the things that (8+ / 0-)

              makes this country great. Getting rid of it is a fringe idea, like getting rid of popular election of senators.

              That is all I will say on the matter because that's all it merits, and this has already gone way too far into policy.

              The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

              by James Allen on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 04:11:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Bottom line, one of the worst ideas (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          I have ever heard.

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:53:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Because ending birthright citizenship (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          would be unconstitutional.

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (16+ / 0-)

    Panel: Host Bill Bryant, the anchor and managing editor of WKYT-TV in Lexington, Lawrence Smith from WDRB (Fox 41) in Louisville, Joe Gerth from the Courier-Journal, and Nick Storm from cn2 Pure Politics. I usually do this on the weekend, but I had to wait for the replay when the weekend open thread wasn't up on Friday evening when I usually write it.

    Governor's Race- Former Auditor Crit Luallen is out. One reason is she is 61, and her husband is 76, and she did not want what she saw as a ten year commitment if she were to win and serve two terms. One person very happy is Atty. Gen. Jack Conway, who is very close to Luallen- she is godmother to one of his children. He hopes to get a lot of the support she would draw in the Golden Triangle, as does current Auditor Adam Edelen. Republicans are also happy about Luallen's departure, as she would have been very formidable. She was very close to many business interests in the state, and could have generated a lot of support, or at least frozen it and money for the GOP candidate. Others interested are Speaker Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonburg) and former Lt. Gov Dan Mongiardo (D-Hazard). If only one of those two run- it could make it interesting, given the big chunk of Eastern KY votes in a Dem primary. Another name thrown out is former Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Versailles). Another thing is running mates- you need one to do anything. Conway looks to get in after Derby, and he could build a big war chest and make it hard for the others if they don't jump in as well. The hiccup is that some of the potential running mates are also sitting State Reps, who are also running for reelection this year. Luallen is likely not to be Conway's running mate.

    Senate Race- John Boel of WAVE-3 in Louisville broke a story with a hidden camera that Matt Bevin attended a cockfighting rally in Corbin. Bevin had said he thought it was a state's rights rally, but the speaker right before him said the sole purpose was to support legalized cockfighting. Mitch is trying to make it an issue of Bevin's credibility, along with his attacks on MIT and TARP. Mitch also had a problem where he stepped in it in Beattyville, saying it wasn't his job to create jobs in Kentucky. Mitch says his comments were taken out of context, but the newspaper editor stands by the story. Alison Grimes pouched on the comment, and it lines up right with her jobs strategy. Lawrence Smith notes how Mitch is usually the master of the message, but has lost his footing. The panel also discussed the NY Times poll, saying it confirmed previous polling that the race was very close. Mitch also skipped the KET debate, which turned into Bill Goodman asking Matt Bevin a lot of questions (and not to the other two minor ones). When asked whether he gained any momentum, Nick Storm says whatever he gained, he lost it this week, and what he needs is to get on a stage with Mitch, to be seen as his equal, and that seems unlikely. Bill Bryant notes that Grimes will likely also skip the Dem KET debate this week.

    Race for the State House- In HD-30 in Louisville, there is a lawsuit saying that Brian Kruger, the GOP candidate against Rep. Tom Burch (D-Louisville) does not live in the district, and actually lives in Rep. Larry Clark (D-Okalona)'s district. The panel thinks it is pretty clear cut against him. State law does not allow for the GOP to replace him. This won't matter that much- Burch was safe, but he is probably happy to be unopposed. Nick Storm asked Rep. David Osborne (R-Prospect) what the GOP would run on. They will run on how ethics cases had been handled. They will bring up blocking a gas tax increase and other bills that have been on their wish lists for a while. Dems will push for minimum wage increase and Rupp Arena expansion.

    Other items- The Federal Trade Commission will investigate gas gouging in Kentucky, as requested by Jack Conway. One big reason is that there is only one gas supplier in the state. There does not seem to be a consensus on a special session yet. Items would be a heroin bill, and financing for Rupp Arena. The panel also discussed Rand Paul's outreach to minority voters, but will be hurt by Cliven Bundy, the Southern Avenger, and his civil rights comments. Its Derby Week, and Churchill Downs has spent $40 million dollars on a giant tv screen, but will have to contend with construction on the roads in Louisville. Kentucky Kingdom reopens this week thanks to state financing.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:48:46 AM PDT

    •  I don't have much to say about Kentucky (9+ / 0-)

      But it's always a treat to read these comments.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:57:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any chance of a Conway-Edelen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      super-ticket? It'd be a quite a strong ticket, and likely would dominate in Fayette and Jefferson counties. Edelen's done good work as auditor, and made good headlines as a corruption and fraud buster. But he's also only one term into elected office. I don't think it would hurt him to spend two terms as LG building up his brand and helping shape and pursue a Democratic agenda.

      Ben Chandler wouldn't be a bad candidate either. Neither would Greg Stumbo. Dan Mongiardo is a royal asshole though. Hopefully all these candidates don't pile in at the same time.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:14:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do you think Conway could win? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:49:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Apparently, Toyota is moving out of Erlanger (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, sulthernao, MichaelNY

      300 jobs will be transferred to Georgetown, KY.  The rest (1300) to Plano, TX.  Could be ammo for Grimes to use:
      https://twitter.com/...
      https://twitter.com/...

      Also, Sonka said these were non-union jobs so the workers have no say in the relocation.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:16:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI: Big Biz scrambling to head of min. wage hike (12+ / 0-)

    Political Tim Skubick has a column in MLive, this morning, reporting on how Michigan's Big Business community is scrambling to try and head of the proposed minimum wage initiative from getting on the ballot, and how they are still confused as to how to do it.  The movement leader, I do not believe, will compromise on this.

    Business still has no strategy to argue against hiking Michigan's minimum wage

    Is the state’s business community fretting about a possible boost in the minimum wage?

    You bet.

    Are the captains of industry going to do something about it?

    You bet.

    What will they do?

    They don’t know.

    They did huddle behind closed doors last week in the Speaker’s office at the capitol in what will certainly be the first of many skull sessions to figure out their anti-minimum wage strategy.

    One of the options discussed was to do nothing and let nature take its course. “The do nothing option was taken off the table,” reveals one source.

    Popular wisdom in town suggests that the coalition fixing to hike the wage to $10.10 an hour over three years will get this on the November ballot and it will likely pass and the business guys know it.

    “It will be difficult to defeat,” concludes one business source.

    ...

    I just signed the petition, yesterday, myself.  I can only hope Frank Houston does not sell us out and work out a deal with the legislature.  The Republicans had their chance, it's time to not just do what is right, economically, but to get as much political mileage out of this as possible to make them pay.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:56:51 AM PDT

  •  Saw an interesting license plate in MD yesterday (10+ / 0-)

    GOO RALPH GOOOOOOOOO
    http://i.imgur.com/...

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:09:45 AM PDT

  •  NV-03/NV-04: What happened on Friday... (7+ / 0-)

    A whole bunch of people packed into some office in a strip mall near the airport. Why, oh why, did this happen?

  •  PA-Gov: any primary pills due out soon? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm curious to see if the calculus has changed since other candidates are now airing ads.

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:14:35 AM PDT

  •  LA-Sen: Landrieu has ad out on her seniority (16+ / 0-)

    by having a shipbuilding company owner speak about it: http://politicalwire.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:48:06 AM PDT

  •  LA-5 Rep. McAllister not seeking re-election (8+ / 0-)

    The GOP leadership seems to be pushing out its bad luck!  Finally, it is about time.  Now if they could just get Rep. Steve King......

    https://twitter.com/...

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:56:55 AM PDT

    •  I'd say this is a shame (8+ / 0-)

      And a major source of hypocrisy for establishment Republicans who have long stood or been tacitly silent when other Republicans engaged in marital infidelity. What this means, unfortunately, is the likelihood of getting yet another ineffective fire-breathing tea-party flavored fiscal social-con, is much more likely, if not a near certainty now, as McAllister's coalition was pretty unique, made up of white liberals, black Democrats, rural traditional values voters, and moderate urban business leaders. I for one don't look forward to Jay Morris or, worst case scenario, Mike Walsworth deciding not to pass up an opportunity this time after Riser proved to be a paper tiger last time around. Walsworth is particularly offensive. (This is the guy who asked a scientist if any of the E. Coli bacteria had evolved into humans). Walsworth is just as much a firebreather as Riser, but less establishment and more renown for being unpleasant and underhanded (most of my local connections agree with speculation he was behind the release of the secret video footage on the Ouachita Citizen that brought McAllister's promising career down).

      You might not have been aware of these local dynamics, so I was just pointing them out.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:09:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  top 2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think another moderate-ish Republican could win the seat just by following McAllister's playbook. Get enough votes from GOP moderates, indies, and conservative Dems to make the top 2, and then clean up in the general with those groups plus conventional Dems.

        If a reasonable and well-funded Republican steps up, the Dems should basically throw the primary by getting 3 or 4 whodats from different parts of the district to run half-ass campaigns, splitting the Dem vote and ensuring a GOP-on-GOP general.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:26:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's still hope that Jacques Roy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          will run. And against Jay Morris or Mike Walsworth, he would make it a pretty interesting race. I see the best bet though, being if he ran as an independent (he flirted with running as a Republican in the special, even though he is a life-long Democrat). Independent-Democrat voter. Jacques Roy would dominate Rapides and do well in Cajun-flavored Avoyelles. The river parishes will have better turnout then because of the competitive Senate race and normal election schedule, which also would benefit Roy.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:31:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm surprised (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          that Louisiana Republicans brought back the jungle primary in 2010.  With their control over the state solidifying, the jungle primary is the reason candidates like McAllister can get elected.  Regular primaries would ensure only Republicans pick their politicians.

          I get their preference for runoffs, since that's big across many Southern states, but the jungle primary (non-partisan blanket primary) allows GOP on GOP matchups where Democrats can influence the outcome.

    •  It will be awesome to see all the (11+ / 0-)

      LA Republicans who criticized McAllister in 2014 back Vitter for governor in 2015.

  •  Gov. Cuomo reportedly betrays... (16+ / 0-)

    Democratic Atty. Gen. Eric Schneiderman, telling donors in private they should support his Republican challenger, according to The New York Post (so, grain of salt and all that). Story here.

    Cuomo has privately given the green light to potential big-buck contributors to help Republican attorney-general hopeful John Cahill, one-time chief of staff to Gov. George Pataki, campaign fund-raisers say.

    Cuomo, no friend of incumbent Democrat Eric Schneiderman, “has made it clear through his connections that he won’t hold it against anyone if they contribute to Cahill’s campaign,’’ said a source close to Cahill’s planned effort.

    Cuomo is also trying to make life hard for another Democrat seeking reelection: Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.
    Cuomo has had longstanding tensions with ­DiNapoli, and was widely seen as attempting to undermine his re-election by agreeing last month to a controversial system of public-campaign financing just for DiNapoli’s office that could weaken the comptroller’s electoral chances.
    Cuomo is such a Zell Miller Democrat, it's worth splitting the liberal vote for a chance at ousting him, even if it means risking a Republican takeover of the governorship.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:11:10 AM PDT

    •  I would like to hear a better source on this. (10+ / 0-)

      I don't think he's this bad.  He has done some really good things,  too.

      Also, no way those two lose re-election so this makes no sense.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:20:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That seems like a bridge too far, so I won't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      believe it, at least not until we get better proof.

      I offer pure political stupidity as my defense, in that I can't believe Cuomo is that dumb. You could make an argument that his other moves, despite not pleasing us, were good for him in some way. Why would this be like that? Are there any indications Eric Schneiderman is vulnerable? You usually don't double cross your own party like this with an incumbent that isn't mired in scandal in state that leans as heavily one way as New York does. To do this, Cuomo has to either know something we don't or be an idiot.

      I know lots of people here are skeptical he'll run for president, but let's consider that he might. What does this gain him, if it's true? Hell, what does it gain him now? He's not going to lose, and it's not like he really needs the money, so trying to curry favor with the other side to show sympathy because they don't like E.S., or something, seems ridiculous. And if he were to run, this sort of thing would almost certainly enrage people at all levels, making his campaign end before it gets started.

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:47:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm glad I read that article, because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      it seems like pure nonsense. In no particular order:

      Cuomo has, right now, a $32 million advantage over Astorino. I doubt he's tapped out.

      The independent groups are going to make up, let alone surpass, that deficit for a little-known Republican against an very popular Democrat in a heavily blue state? Why would they do that? Is fracking near Binghamton worth that much?

      This makes me doubt the rest of Dicker's column in a big, big way.

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:57:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's also worth noting Cahill isn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      even an official candidate yet. He's still in the exploratory phase. I know this is an indication he's seriously considering running, if not almost certain to do so, but still, he's not officially in.

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:01:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm calling BS Schneiderman is not going anywhere (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      And Cuomo knows that he is in no way endangered for re-election there isn't even a serious Republican running against him.

  •  Ugh! He's pathetic and disgusting. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Totally agree - I want him out!

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:19:06 AM PDT

    •  It's not even certain it's true. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:47:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Grimm says he is not resigning (12+ / 0-)

    Just gave a press conference.

    “I’m not abandoning my post now,” Grimm said Monday. “I have an election to win.”
    link.
  •  I don't get the "underpaid Congressman" thing (4+ / 0-)

    He's right, they are underpaid. There's probably not a soul in Congress who couldn't be earning more in the private sector. In fact, I'd guess a majority would do better just living off their own investments. That's not an argument for increasing said salary -- it's adequate -- but I've always thought making a big deal out of the members who complain about it is just cheap.

    •  But electoral campaigns, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      to a large degree, are about using themes and messages that work. It's not always high-minded, but if most people would find a candidate's statement on X or Y distasteful, it's not surprising that the other side would try to use it.

    •  It is a silly issue (5+ / 0-)

      especially considering that any one of the small adjustments to minor military expenditures can, by itself, completely make all congressional pay negligible in comparison.  Congressional pay is not just a drop in the bucket, it's a molecule.

      That said, it is revealing when people think $174K a year is "not a lot of money".  And I guess it isn't to fellow millionaires.  But it just goes to show how drastically different their lives and views are from the median American.

      But I really do object to "withholding pay" stunts by rich congressmen.  It's nothing to them, and ultimately nothing to the budget either.  Same goes for squabbling over pay increases.

      •  The money can get pretty tight (0+ / 0-)

        When you have to maintain two residences, including one in one of the most expensive metro areas in the country.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:12:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

          $174k isn't really that much by current standards, not for executive level employees. And the two residences makes it that much harder. Also, the constant travel makes it nearly impossible for a spouse to have a high paying job.

          •  Yeah, I've always disliked the view (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Possible Liberal, sulthernao

            that some seem to have that elected officials should nearly maintain a vow of poverty, in light of the constant complaining over salaries.

            Though I thought Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA) expressed this view rather clumsily, the more so since the two residences and constant travel issues really don't apply to him, representing a district literally just across the river from Washington.

            38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:31:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Do congressman have to pay for housing in D.C.? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I figured the answer was yes, and I imagine running a regular household plus paying for separate quarters in your district might get pricey.

        It's still silly for them to complain about a salary that is 5-6 times what the normal household makes (or whatever it is), but it's not like they are really making money. But then, they aren't there to make money.

        More than anything, this seems like an argument for dormitory-style housing for congressman and senators. That shouldn't be so damn hard to implement.

        "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:53:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  no, they're not underpaid and it's not hard to get (6+ / 0-)

      174k is more than three times the median household income in the US. It puts congress members in the top 5% or so (definitely top 10%) of all US income earners. Sure, 174k doesn't allow you to live like royalty in DC, but they're definitely not scarping by. It's not like they're living paycheck to paycheck, or having to put off medical care because there's no money in the bank, or having to tell their children they can't go to college because they can't afford the cost of tuition. In other words, they incredibly privileged compared to most people. So it's perfectly legitimate to make "a big deal" when congress members make callous, tone-deaf statements that reveal that they're just whiny assholes.

      •  Most Congress-members share an apartment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        with other Congress-members.

        Really I don't feel much sympathy for them. Compare them to state legislators, most of whom (depending on their state) only get paid stipends. And those folks have to miss months of work at a time and live in (mostly) crappy state capitals.

    •  Here's the reality...... (6+ / 0-)

      I live inside the Beltway as a homeowner and full-time working parent, so I know this.

      No, Congressional salaries don't go far around here, because the cost of living is very high, and housing is expensive.

      Local Democratic Congressmen really had to be careful with their rhetoric when the tax rates legislation was being debated, because Obama's longtime position (which he eventually surrendered) of letting Bush tax cuts expire on income above $250K was unpopular here.  That's because a lot of famiiles make above $250K here who are not flush with cash.  The mortgages are steep, other living expenses pile up fast, and a lot of famlies send their kids to private schools although in reality they deserve no financial sympathy for this if living in most suburbs (some suburbs do have questionable public schools).

      Plus, a Member of Congress has to maintain separate residences for work and for their home state, and then absorb travel costs that might not all be on Uncle Sam's dime (I'm not sure what's reimbursed), and then deal with D.C. living expenses.

      All that said, it's politically untenable to complain.  Most people don't make a fraction of a Congressman, and it's not politically acceptable to complain, ever.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:45:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Their travel is paid for (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Their travel is paid for, to and from their home state.

        http://www.senate.gov/...

        Official Office Expenses Allowance Component of the MRA

        The official office expenses allowance component of the MRA varies for each Member. As stated above, this component is combined with the other MRA components and results in one
        authorization that can be used to pay for any type of official expense.

        The base allowance in the formula revised for 2013 was $256,574.18

        There are two additional factors in this component, including
        1. a sum for travel based on the following formula: 64 times the rate per mile, multiplied by the mileage between Washington, DC, and the furthest point in a Member’s district, plus 10%. The minimum mileage amount is $6,200 for a
        Member. The rate per mile used to calculate the 2010 allowance was as follows:

        Table 1. Mileage Multiplier for MRA
        Mileage Between
        Washington, DC, and the
        Furthest Point in a
        Member’s District Rate Per Mile
        Fewer than 500 miles $ .96
        500 to 749 miles .86
        750 to 999 miles .71
        1,000 to 1,749 miles .61
        1,750 to 2,249 miles .51
        2,250 to 2,499 miles .48
        2,500 to 2,999 miles .43
        3,000 miles or more .32

      •  I live in Arlington (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        And I make far far less (especially being a full time grad student and only working part time).

        My wife is a Physicians Assistant (Dr.-lite) and makes good money, though far less than $174,000.

        We rent like many Americans. And we live comfortably, within our means.

        Most Congress-members rent condos in or around DC. I don't feel like they have it bad at all.

        •  No they don't, I don't question that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PassionateJus, MichaelNY

          No they don't have it bad at all.

          But those who didn't come to Congress already wealthy do have financial pressures that are greater than the salary suggests.  Having to keep two residences is a big one for many of them.

          I'm not defending this candidate's comments.  They're not defensible, ultimately.

          But it's not a nothingburger, either, that a Congressional salary isn't as much as anyone unfamiliar with the cost of living here would think.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:07:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Check Out State Legislator Pay (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      In New Mexico they get ZERO pay (though they do get paid per diem).

      It would be nice if this info included which states are full time or part time, but still interesting:

      http://ballotpedia.org/...

      Seriously, federal legislators have it good by comparison.

    •  Because it shows just how out of touch (5+ / 0-)

      They are with what the average American (let alone human) makes. Sure, they could probably all make more, but most people who could CHOOSE to only make 174K should consider themselves lucky.

    •  He has to be more sensitive (0+ / 0-)

      to the 99.5-some-odd% of the population that makes less than that. Being out of touch with the lives of your constituents is a completely valid issue.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:25:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-11 moved to Lean D by Cook: (15+ / 0-)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 10:56:44 AM PDT

  •  Two former UT AGs about to be indicted (10+ / 0-)

    Since we can't let New York have all the fun, former Attorneys General Mark Shurtleff and his successor John Swallow are about to be indicted by two district attorneys, Sim Gill of Salt Lake County (a Democrat), and Troy Rawlings of Davis County (a Republican). Link.

    Additionally, an aide to both Swallow and Shurtleff, as well as one of their top campaign consultants will also be indicted.

    Seeing as how the current AG Sean Reyes is one of the guys who Swallow and Shurtleff did dirty campaign tricks against, I'm pretty sure he and the district attorneys will go swinging against the corruption of the two former AGs.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:06:54 AM PDT

  •  MT-Sen: Walsh out with two positive TV ads (7+ / 0-)

    This one's good: https://www.youtube.com/...
    This one's more generic: https://www.youtube.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:19:17 AM PDT

  •  Well, after all that talk (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Gygaxian, PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

    about "Maine is winnable this year" - another usual lopsided margin for Collins... Even if it comes from Rasmussen - it's not big, it's VERY big...

  •  CA Gov (7+ / 0-)

    Pete Wilson and Mitt Romney endorse Neel Kashkari. And in other news the sky is blue. And when a reporter told Tim Donnelly this all Donnelly could do was laugh and laugh.

    Former California Gov. Pete Wilson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, have endorsed Neel Kashkari in California's gubernatorial race, the Kashkari campaign announced Monday.

    The endorsements come with Kashkari, a former U.S. Treasury Department official, lagging in public opinion polls.

    "Neel is the right candidate with the right message to challenge Gov. Brown, support Republican candidates up and down the ticket, and help us grow the Party in the long term," Wilson said in a prepared statement.

    Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 11:41:07 AM PDT

    •  I'm guessing that's a happy laugh? (0+ / 0-)

      And that Wilson and Romney's endorsements will hurt Kashkari?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:32:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unless there is an influx of donations (5+ / 0-)

      that comes with those endorsements, I dont think it helps Kashkari that much.

      The fact that George W. Bush seems to be helping his campaign really says it all.

      I am surprised, though, at how poor Kashkari's fundraising has been.

      •  If (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        the RGA wanted to waste money should have sent all that money they donated to Bruce Rauner (as if he needed it) and sent it to Kashkari instead. At least in Kashkari's case it would have helped the GOP downballot instead of wasting it on a guy who could self fund like crazy.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:02:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Rauner might actually win (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

          that's all that is important to the RGA.

          The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

          by James Allen on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:06:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Kashkari got in too late (0+ / 0-)

      His campaign is dead in the water at this point if he had started early last year he probably would be in a good position. And I'd rather have kashkari as the nominee because he would depress Republican turnout unlike Donnelly who fires up the base.

      •  Donnelly won't help turnout (0+ / 0-)

        He appeals mostly to the hardcore partisans who always vote in any case. The marginal GOP vote in CA has a lot of white collar quasi-libertarian types, who would be far more likely to blow the election off with Donnelly than with Kashkari.

        Kashkari wasn't going raise enough money to win the primary this year in any case, because the general is hopeless. Popular Dem incumbents don't lose in CA, ever. That won't necessarily be the case in 2018 with an open seat. He may be able to build on the name rec and connections he's building this year to make a serious play in the primary, where a lot of the swing voters who Brown has locked up this year will be up for grabs.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 03:51:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Turnout" is helped by one thing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          Competitiveness.  That's what helps turnout.

          If you look like you have a plausible chance to win, your side's partisans show up, including some marginals.

          If you look like you're toast and it really looks ugly, then your turnout tanks and you end up losing by more than you would with "normal" turnout.

          That's the risk the CA GOP has in this, that Donnelly could see a death spiral that drags down turnout downballot.  This could help Peters IMO in CA-52.  That race could have its own momentum where people just show up to vote anyway, but there's a very plausible risk that the Governor's race buries DeMaio and others downballot in federal and state legislative races.

          It would've helped DeMaio to have a federal race up-ballot, that would've helped him even if not competitive because it at least would've made everyone focus on the federal offices more broadly.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:12:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  now its sure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      Kashkari will not break the 47%...

  •  FL-13: Ehrlich isn't running, developer might. (7+ / 0-)

    Former congressional aide Jessica Ehrlich, who was the Democratic nominee against Bill Young in 2012 and held him to his lowest percentage in decades, has announced that she will not run against Republican Congressman David Jolly this fall:

    "After careful consideration, I have decided to not run for Congress at this time," Ehrlich told POLITICO in a statement. "New and exciting opportunities have come my way which will help me better serve my neighbors, the voters of the 13th, and all Floridians. I would like to thank all those who reached out to me encouraging me to run for their unwavering support and know that we will continue to fight together for a brighter future."
    And to what is she referring when she mentions "new and exciting opportunities"? She's apparently been working as a Fox News analyst over the past few months and likes the work.

    On the other hand, wealthy developer and real estate investor Joel Cantor is apparently considering running against Jolly, and has been talking to the DCCC about running.

    Filing for Congress for Florida congressional candidates opened today and closes Friday, so we will definitely have an idea of who's in and who's out by the end of the week.

    I don't expect Democrats to come up with a candidate who can unseat Jolly, however. Despite the fact that he is hardly an intimidating incumbent, Democrats have--as I have mentioned here countless times--a very small bench here that mostly consists of people just recently elected to office. Personally, I would put FL-13 somewhere between Lean R and Likely R, but I expect that this seat will be hotly contested with a strong candidate in 2016.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:05:19 PM PDT

  •  That's a much better Nunn ad. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, MichaelNY

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:07:44 PM PDT

    •  She's running a smart campaign I think... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, WisJohn, MichaelNY

      I wonder how many GOP primary voters will be looking for her on the ballot - she never mentions her party affiliation at all while mentions Points of Light/President Bush connection in seemingly every ad and is up running these positive/bio ads during the GOP primary ad wars - so while the GOP primary candidates are attacking each other, she is never really attacked, and while the GOP candidates are thus muddied from attack ads against them and lowered for running negative ads she's seen as above the fray and positive.

      Sam's saying "I think you have a good shot" is cheeky as well as of course he's not really talking about her basketball shot, but shot at winning the election.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:41:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Colorado polls on marriage and marijuana (10+ / 0-)

    Quinnipiac is out with a poll of Colorado

    Voters support the amendment that legalized marijuana 54-43, not too far off from its actual 10 point passage in 2012.

    By party: 72-26 among Democrats, 56-40 among independents, and opposed 29-67 by Republicans.

    49% of respondents said they had used marijuana, and by a 52-38 margin say legalization has been good for the state.

    They're hyping the fact that 52% of voters would be "less likely" to support someone who smokes a few times a week, but 46% wouldn't care, which is better than I would have expected.

    And now, the big numbers of same-sex marriage: Colorado supports marriage equality 61-33%.  It's up by an insane 66-28 among women,.

    By party: 85-12 among Democrats, 63-30 among independents, opposed 34-58 by Republicans.

    By age: 81-12 among those under thirty, and only opposed 44-48 by those over sixty-five.

    •  Will SSM become (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      an issue in the senate race? Could help paint a picture of Gardner being completely out of touch on social issues if you in include abortion and that personhood amendment ...

      •  Not sure (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY

        Democrats use personhood to attack Republicans in Colorado because there are very strong feelings against it among independents (and Democrats of course).  Unfortunately, I think a lot of the support for same-sex marriage is soft, and that most straight people don't care that strongly.

        Viewed from the other side, I would liken it to the death penalty, which is fairly popular in Colorado, but no one aside from Tom Tancredo has it in their top ten or even twenty issues.  It's something a lot of independents would say they support to a pollster, but wouldn't base their vote on it or be particularly motivated by the issue.  Witness how Tancredo's reason for running for governor has been completely ignored on the campaign trail since, with the much more emotion-inflaming issues of gun control, taxes, and healthcare having taken over.

        So I don't think we're quite at the point of using SSM to defeat Republicans in Colorado, though it's probably enough to hurt Republicans in dark blue states.

        •  Some dark blue states might not be at 61-33 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, MichaelNY

          support.  Are Rhode Island or Illinois that high?  Maryland isn't.  Where's Hawaii?  I'd say Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, and potentially Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and California are over 60%.  But it's not too many places.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:47:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Gay marriage should've been on the ballot (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It would've been a great way to drive the people we need to the polls. Millenials, women etc. at this point gay marriage is a great way to get out our base it would definitely carry Hick and Udall over the edge.

  •  Lean R at worst it looks for IA-Gov (9+ / 0-)

    Meanwhile, I'm totally unable to decipher Scott Brown's position on Obamacare.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:28:53 PM PDT

  •  Considering Magellan's past polls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

    those are particularly good.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:03:43 PM PDT

  •  NH-Sen: Airhead (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, BeloitDem, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    He's always struck me as one. Mouth always moving, but nothing coming out.

    28, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:10:45 PM PDT

    •  That mumbling by Brown (7+ / 0-)

      Reminded me of that Miss America contestant who got stumped by a question and kept rambling on and on.  

      I mean it seemed like he got lost trying to be on all sides of the issue and "New Hampshire" and then just through in other nouns and verbs randomly.

      He's for:
      1.  Covering pre-existing conditions
      2.  Catastrophic coverage
      3.  Covering kids (a bold stance)
      4.  Medicaid expansion
      5.  A plan good for New Hampshire (another bold stance)
      6.  Individual freedoms (radical indeed)

      He's against:
      1.  Mandates from Washington bureaucrats

      So in 110 rambling words he basically is for the ACA but only if passed at the state level.  Brilliant!!!!

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:21:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What about the troops? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 01:51:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GA Gov SUSA: Deal 41 Carter 37 (13+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:18:45 PM PDT

  •  GA GOP Sen primary SUSA (6+ / 0-)

    Perdue 26
    Kingston 20
    Handel 15
    Broun 13
    Gingery 6

    https://mobile.twitter.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:24:04 PM PDT

    •  If this is what ends up happening.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      calvinshobbes

      I'd be seriously shocked. Primaries with many viable candidates are pretty hard to poll effectively. I'm still thinking either Broun or Gingrey will make the runoff.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:45:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Totality of polling shows Broun and Gingrey (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        doing worse than one would expect the most hardcore conservatives to do.  How much money does Gingrey have to get his name rec up? I know Broun doesn't have much.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 02:58:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I think Gingrey fails to make the runoff (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I have yet to see an ad for Broun. Gingrey has a couple of positive ads out, and there is one super PAC running an ad against him, so if he still isnt breaking double digits, I doubt he makes the run off.

          Broun, in theory, could be positioned for a surge, but he or one of his allies needs to start running ads.

          Right now, Perdue and Kingston in the runoff would not surprise me at all.

    •  Perdue is not what we need in this race (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingTag, MichaelNY

      He's basically a Generic R business type establishment figure who likely won't make stupid comments or implode. It doesn't look like his comments against Handel have had any effect let's hope that Broun or Gingrey pick up steam.

      •  We don't need someone.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PassionateJus

        to make a stupid comment or implode. Nunn is an excellent candidate and will be competitive regardless of the results of the primary.

        Not suggesting it wouldn't be much easier for Nunn to win against Gingrey or Broun, but Perdue doesn't move this race to Likely-R or even Lean-R. Hell, I'm pretty skeptical on it being Tilt-R even with Perdue.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 04:33:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes we need stupid comments and implosion (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, gabjoh

          Nunn is going to lose without Broun to run against, and probably loses by single-digits even to Gingrey.  There are too many conservatives in Georgia for Nunn to beat anyone else or likely even come close.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:06:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm surprised Perdue has kept his total (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      so high, despite his criticism of Handel for only having a high school diploma.

      There seemed to be a pretty strong negative reaction to that.

      Perdue would still be tough to beat in the general.

      I think Nunn could run effectively against Kingston. He has been in Congress for 21 years so the outsider stance could still work for Nunn.

  •  Schwartz stepping up attacks on Wolf/Corbett (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, Gygaxian, MichaelNY
    “We assume he’s very wealthy,” she said. “It seems someone who can borrow $4.5 million has the ability to replay it, but then he’s also said he actually liquidated all of his assets. His only assets are his collateral in the company. I want to know how it adds up, and how it affects him as governor when he doesn’t have the money to pay it back, and how does it affect his company and the employees.”

    “I don’t know the answers to these questions,” Schwartz said repeatedly. “You [reporters] should be asking these questions.”

    However when pressed by WITF reporter Mary Wilson on whether she would divulge 10 years of tax returns – as Republican Gov. Tom Corbett has done – Schwartz seemed puzzled.

    Link

    Can she make a chink in Wolf's armor in time? Wolf still hasn't gone negative he's still rolling positive message + ads and I think he will for the remainder of the primary.

  •  OR state senate: one more safe seat (6+ / 0-)

    since rich dude Rick Miller opted not to run for SD-19 as an Independent Party candidate.

    The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 03:22:00 PM PDT

  •  Got a new diary up that took a lot of work (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje, bythesea

    looking at California's White vote, and how liberal or conservative it is in each county.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 04:06:11 PM PDT

  •  Does Scott Brown (7+ / 0-)

    Also have a statement on the South Africa, the Iraq, and people who don't HAVE maps?

  •  I guess its not too soon to move NY-11 to lean Dem (6+ / 0-)

    Huh?

    NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 04:53:57 PM PDT

  •  PA GOV heats up; Wolf bites back at Schwartz (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY
    Allyson Schwartz’s attacks on Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Tom Wolf are “sad” and “petty,” according to Wolf’s campaign.

    Schwartz, a veteran Montgomery County congresswoman who had been the primary frontrunner for several months, has targeted Wolf’s campaign finances in recent weeks.

    She continued her inquisition Monday during an appearance before the PennLive editorial board and the Pennsylvania Press Club.

    “Tom Wolf borrowed $4.5 million [for his campaign] that he will have to repay as governor,” she told PennLive. “I don’t know how he does that. I don’t know what effect that is on his being governor. I don’t know what effect that has on the company that he says he saved, and what it does to the employees who may or may not be affected.”

    Wolf campaign spokesman Mark Nicastre dismissed Schwartz’s queries as the actions of a desperate candidate.

    “It's sad that Allyson has gone down this route, with petty attacks against Tom because she has no other way to try to win,” Nicastre said.

    Link
    •  Nicastre is right, I think. (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:02:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Buying an election. (9+ / 0-)

      It's not a petty attack. Not sure why people are reflexively defending Wolf. Of the 4 candidates he has the least experience in public service, and no political/ideological record to defend.

      Impractical progressive Democrat. "I am becoming less and less interested in your estimates of what is possible." - President Merkin Muffley (Dr. Strangelove)

      by redrelic17 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:22:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They let him "buy" it (0+ / 0-)

        Wolf was basically on air weeks to himself Schwartz & McCord basically let him run away with this and now they're playing catchup. Both Schwartz & McCord had plenty of $$$ to go on early right along with Wolf's ads. You can't blame Wolf for seemingly being the only smart one running.

        •  What's your source (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B, MichaelNY

          for saying they had plenty of money and simply chose not to buy ads? Not an attack, just a question, but I'm curious because that contradicts other things I've heard about the race, which is that they went on the air once it was feasible based on how much money they had and the issue is that Wolf just had more money, so he could go on TV earlier and afford to stay on TV.  

        •  "Let him"? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B, ProgMD, MichaelNY

          Are you serious? That's the very definition of "buying an election" (the subject of the comment you responded to).

          The campaign funds of his opponents were limited. They needed to hold on to their funds to make sure it lasted through the election.

          His campaign funds, apparently, were not limited. He didn't need to hold on to them.

          Not sure why you're so focused on this candidate. From my perspective (outside of PA), I hope the race tightens up considerably to give Pennsylvanians an open choice.

          If they end up going with Wolf, I'll be all for it. But I'd like all the candidates to get a good look, regardless of their personal or primary dollars.

      •  "People"? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, ProgMD, kurykh, MichaelNY

        I don't think that's right. There seems to be only one person around here whose reflexively defending Wolf.

  •  Red flags in new DemCorp poll out today...? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, DCCyclone

    •  Not bad if true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      I think the DC poll was favorable to Dems right?

      •  oh, see his subsequent tweets (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ChadmanFL

        This wasnt a national poll, it was poll of GOP leaning districts.

        •  Actually, competitive districts (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          held by both parties.  Not fully national, but the districts polled are as a whole probably reasonably representative of the country overall.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:40:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But more GOP-held districts than Dem-held ones (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, Jervill, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            DCCyclone outlined that on twitter.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:47:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yah, it's not a national generic ballot (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              This is a generic ballot for 86 cherry-picked House districts which are 58% GOP-held (50 of 86) and with 57% GOP among the incumbents running for reelection (39 of 69).  Compare that to the full House which is 54% GOP-held (I'm using 233 of 435 based on the 2012 election, not counting any current vacancies).

              This DemCorps poll is going to have a necessary GOP skew because of the seats they cherry-picked and cannot be compared to the generic House ballot in national polls.  There's nothing wrong with the DemCorps poll, it's just that it's not apples-to-apples with national polls.

              And regarding demographics, I don't know if those are fully accurate or not, but it makes sense that these particular districts as a group would be whiter and older than the national electorate.  Younger whites and people of color are packed more into safe Dem districts, both by natural concentration and gerrymandering.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:01:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  probably whiter on average. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, Jervill, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

            by James Allen on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:53:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, they are NOT representative of the country (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, PassionateJus

              They are as a group whiter, older, and more conservative than the country as a whole.

              This poll is just one more way of illustrating how packed our voters are, both by natural concentration and gerrymandering.  Our voters are packed in a way that the most competitive districts are more conservative and higher-hanging fruit for us than the national House ballot.  This isn't new information, but this poll confirms the point.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:04:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Got polled in PA-Gov. (6+ / 0-)

    I think it was for Muhlenberg College, and it was only for the Democratic primary. I said that I am a likely voter for McCord.

    Impractical progressive Democrat. "I am becoming less and less interested in your estimates of what is possible." - President Merkin Muffley (Dr. Strangelove)

    by redrelic17 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:23:07 PM PDT

  •  Grimm gives up committee seat (5+ / 0-)

    Grimm is stepping down from his seat on the Financial Services committee.

    Maybe a sign he could step down from the House altogether?

    Maybe not, since he could easily get back his  committee spot if he is cleared.

  •  WI-AD-93. (6+ / 0-)

    Hooray!! I have a Democrat to vote for for Assembly!! The same guy I voted for last time, former Rep. Jeff Smith.

    From his Facebook page:

    Jeff Smith Launches Campaign for 93rd Assembly District

    Eau Claire, WI – On Friday, April 25th, former Democratic Assembly Representative Jeff Smith announced his candidacy to represent the citizens of the 93rd Assembly District during the Eau Claire County Democratic Party Annual Gala.

    “As I’ve traveled through western Wisconsin as a Regional Political Director for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, I see that there is a general hopelessness among Wisconsinites these days,” Smith said. “They seem to feel that there is no use in expecting better results from their elected legislators.”

    “It is quite clear that we need to restore confidence in democracy and the democratic process and we will only move forward if we come together. I mean everyone. And I believe I am the leader, along with all of you, who can bring this district together.”

    “I refuse to sit back and not fight to preserve our public schools, our environment and farmland, our equality, and our state’s history promoting the greater good for everyone. Not just a select few. It is up to you and me to remind citizens of all walks of life and beliefs that we are all in this together. We all must come together. NOW. For, together is how we succeed.”

    In 2012, Smith outran Obama in the district by about a point. I doubt he'll win this year, but its good to have someone running in case the WI GOP and/or Rep. Warren Petryk implodes.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 05:44:51 PM PDT

  •  lol (11+ / 0-)

    So supposedly the dumb centrist-fetish group No Labels endorsed Cory Gardner today.  Indeed, Gardner was touting their endorsement as an example of his moderation.

    But what really happened?  No Labels endorses anyone who pledges to support No Labels.  Gardner got their endorsement by filling out a form, rather than the group evaluating him as a politician.  In fact, the No Labels spokesman afterwards said they'd be happy to endorse Senator Udall too if Udall will say he supports No Labels.

    The funny thing is there's actually a "Unity" candidate already in the race.  Unity is another group basically identical to No Labels...ignore all the hard partisan issues, and insist progress can happen if everyone just agrees on a balanced budget amendment and term limits.

    I wonder if the Unity candidate is also exploring "earning" No Labels' worthless endorsement.

  •  IL-HD 43: Dem Rep Keith Farnham resigned in March (0+ / 0-)
  •  RGA out with another ad against Sheheen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, JGibson

    Their basically doubling down on their despicable attack. Is Haley more endangered than we know I can't see any reason they'd go hardball like this if Haley is cruising to re-election. Their internals must show some real trouble if their stooping this low.

  •  Bernie Sanders running web ads... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

    ...despite being more than four years away from his next re-election campaign to the U.S. Senate. The web ad I saw called for the implementation of a national health care system and included the motto "Forward not Backward".

    Isn't it unusual for Sanders to run any kind of paid ads? I remember reading somewhere that Sanders spends very little or no money on paid ads.

  •  OT: Whoa, now Craig Ferguson retiring. (7+ / 0-)

    The late-night shake-up continues.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    I like Craig. He's my favorite network late-night guy. I'll miss him.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:36:31 PM PDT

    •  Fairly regular watch (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, WisJohn, bythesea

      And I'm actually shocked.  The only way my mind can understand this is that maybe he wants to move to another network.  I can not imagine him wanting to get out of the game this young.  It doesn't seem like he's retiring out of bad ratings or some kind of weakness.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:44:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No surprise there (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, jj32

      I would have been more shocked if Ferguson stayed on after CBS didn't even consider him for "Late Show".

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:59:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought he had (0+ / 0-)

        first right of refusal for "Late Show"? I thought I heard that once. Maybe I'm wrong.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:11:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I thought so too (0+ / 0-)

          Apparently, the way it works: Since he wasnt selected to succeed Letterman, he gets 8 to 12 million.

          link.

        •  That's the old way of doing things (0+ / 0-)

          but after NBC denied Letterman's desire to move up after Johnny Caron retired, it's far from set in stone anymore.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:05:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I had read it was built into Ferguson's contract. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            My understanding of the "Tonight Show" conflict of 1992 was that Johnny Carson wanted (and had all but promised) Dave that he would get the 11:35/10:35c spot. But NBC went and hired Leno instead. I don't believe that it was ever in Dave's contract.

            Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

            by WisJohn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:04:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ferguson probably wants to do stand-up. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn

              I've watched him on Comedy Central.  He's quite good.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:12:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  More stand-up (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                As he already does some - like Jay - on his days/weeks off.  I still  think he wants another television show, though, but something more on his terms.

                Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

                by MetroGnome on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:53:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, he loved doing things differently. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  WisJohn

                  That was one of the draws of his show.  Whether it be mugging the camera early in the monologue or starting it off with handpuppets.  And who can forget Geoff and Secretariat.

                  “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:56:07 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  I'm thinking of writing a quick diary (7+ / 0-)

    detailing my hope for the future and present prospects of the Utah Dems before I go on my LDS mission. I'm not sure exactly what I want them to do, but I do know that I want them to win and expand.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:47:43 PM PDT

    •  I think that Utah will only get better when (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      the Mormons "secularize". By that, I mean when they get to a point where most of them start ignoring their church's more invasive doctrines on a regular basis, like how most Catholics ignore their church's teachings on birth control. The Mormon leadership is irreconcilably reactionary and seems like it will remain so (again, just look at the Catholic Church to see how hard it is to get a religious institution to modernize). Pardon me if I'm wrong (and I may very well be, as I live in a part of the country with very few Mormons), but it seems a lot of Mormons obey the church even on silly things like not drinking tea. When they are that tied to an institution, it's no surprise that they internalize the institution's reactionary social dogma and consequently vote reflexively Republican.

      •  Perhaps that's true (0+ / 0-)

        Though with things like our dietary code, it's a big enough part of our unique culture that I don't think it's going away anytime soon.

        I do think that we need strong LDS Democratic candidates who can be personable and relatable enough to win over a good chunk of LDS voters. Jim Matheson and SLCO Mayor Ben McAdams are good examples of that (though I honestly think we should just abandon the Congressional seats for now, it's a waste of our time and money). We even have an example of this in the Legislature; retiring state rep Tim Cosgrove was widely considered to be the only Dem able to hold his seat, simply because he basically walked his district every year.

        Utahns are willing to vote for Democrats, they just have to be good candidates and willing to work hard.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:07:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Electing Matheson governor '16 should help UT Dems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      nt

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 07:46:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That will probably help too. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I mean, despite the whining of the "true leftist" types, the prospect of a Democratic winning the governor's mansion will energize Dems and soft Republicans into voting for Matheson and down-ballot candidates. At least, I hope so, because this depression we UT Dems are in is ridiculous.

        I mean, a couple of us are picking fights with local political commentators because he pointed out that we couldn't fill a convention hall. How sad is that?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:09:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It depends on his governing style.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:47:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hopefully he's a William Guy type (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the Gov. of ND in the 60s who helped reform and expand the Dem party there by merging them with the NPL (a farmer-led political party).

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:52:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I get conflicting info on that (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY, ehstronghold

              From one side of the party, Matheson is portrayed as selfish and willing to trample candidates that don't fit his "overly timid, moderate bullcrap" (not my own words) persona. On the other side, Matheson is seen as basically a savior, with all the money he brings in his campaigns tricking down-ballot and saving some of our more difficult legislative seats, even though we lose a few each time.

              While I've long expressed a pro-Matheson view, I do have sympathies towards the anti-Mathesonites, when they're talking about candidate support. The trouble Liz Muniz in HD 33 in 2012 had in getting labor and moderate support after she bounced a moderate incumbent (and she barely lost afterwords) seems to be worrying.

              I do think that if Matheson wins the governorship, he will try to expand the party a bit, but I don't know what's the best way to go about it. Whatever it is we've been doing for 30 years doesn't seem to be working, and we seem to have run lackluster candidates (whether moderate or progressive) for most of those years.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 09:06:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  CO-Gov (4+ / 0-)

    Tom Tancredo still avoiding debates

    I remember reading awhile back that Tancredo was not planning to debate his rivals at all, claiming that it would just give Democrats ammunition.  Looks like he's following through on it.

    I wonder how much of this is newly found GOP paranoia about debates in general, and how much is Tancredo believing himself to be so far in the lead that debates would only elevate his opponents.

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