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8:44 AM PT: GA-Sen: So, wow. By now you've already seen the huge and unexpected news that Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, who'd been facing the threat of a right-wing primary challenge, has instead decided to retire rather than seek a third term. My colleague Jed Lewison grabbed the initial story and has been updating with further developments on who's in and who's out. We'll also start keeping track here, but for the moment, I just wanted to link Jed's piece in case you happened to somehow miss this!

9:44 AM PT: MA-Sen: Blargh. Based on unnamed, unquoted sources, the Boston Globe reports that conservative Dem Rep. Stephen Lynch will indeed make the plunge into the special election to replace John Kerry, which will take place following Kerry's expected confirmation as Secretary of State. This sets up a clash in the primary with fellow Rep. Ed Markey, who has locked up establishment support from top to bottom. It's hard to imagine Lynch having a good shot in a two-way fight, and progressives will surely mobilize to stop him, but the Globe also makes sketchy mention of a new poll that supposedly has Markey up "by about 10 points" in a head-to-head.

However, the poll can't be taken at face value. It was paid for by the National Association of Government Employees, whom I'm assuming are interested in getting Lynch into the race—despite his conservative votes on many issues, Lynch is a big union guy. What's more, the poll was conducted by David Paleologos of Suffolk University, who did a remarkable job discrediting himself last cycle when announced he'd no longer survey Virginia or Florida because Romney had already "painted those states red." (Obama won both.)

And here's the real tell: In hypothetical general election matchups with ex-Sen. Scott Brown (who hasn't announced any plans yet), Markey trails 49-39 while Lynch is "only" behind 42-33. Those are a pretty cockamamie set of numbers: Are we supposed to believe that Markey is so polarizing compared to Lynch that he pushes Brown all the way from 42 to 49? Or that Lynch, despite his evidently lower name recognition, somehow convinces 7 percent of the electorate to at least withhold their support from Brown? I'm not really buying these results, particularly given the fragmentary way in which they've been released. Anyhow, here's hoping this report is incorrect and that Lynch stays out.


9:46 AM PT:
"At this time, I have no plans to run for anything other than re-election in the 12th district." -- John Barrow.
@TheFix via HootSuite
9:47 AM PT:
From spokesman: "Looking ahead, Newt Gingrich will not be a candidate in the '14 GOP Senate primary."   #Gasen #gapol #gagop
@ajconwashington via TweetDeck
9:47 AM PT:
Barrow adds: "but I am certainly gratified that people have been suggesting I run for the Senate." #gapol #gadems #gagop #GASen
@ajconwashington via TweetDeck

10:12 AM PT: Electoral College: Good news: It sounds like Virginia's electoral college-rigging scheme is on the verge of collapse, though it's not because the GOP collectively came to its senses. Rather, a lone Republican state senator, Ralph Smith, says he's opposed to the measure, and since the chamber is divided 20-20 between the two parties (with the lieutenant governor breaking ties), that means the plan is all but doomed.

Amusingly, Smith is worried about what would happen "if every state does it that way," which would of course help Republicans for the same reason they hold the majority in the House despite having lost the national House vote last year: District lines overwhelmingly favor the GOP. If every state used this system, Democrats would probably need to win the popular vote by 5 percent in order to win the White House, thus ending American democracy. I suppose it's possible Smith is actually concerned about that prospect, but it really doesn't matter as long as he kills the bill in committee.

Meanwhile, any similar aims have definitely run aground in Florida, where Republican state House Speaker Will Weatherford utterly derided the idea. Of course, given Florida's red tilt (despite Obama's two victories there), implementing an electoral-college-by-congressional-district plan in the Sunshine State would definitely hurt the GOP, since they need all 29 EVs there in order to have any shot at the presidency. So it's easy to stand opposed if you're a Florida Republican, though somewhat remarkably, state Senate President Don Gaetz (also a GOPer) says he prefers relying on the national popular vote! That would be awesome!

10:27 AM PT: In fact, Smith is actually the second Senate Republican to express opposition. Jill Holtzman Vogel, who abstained from the initial subcommittee vote, told ThinkProgress that "it’s very unlikely" she'd vote for the legislation if it came to the floor.

10:45 AM PT: AR-Gov: Whoa! The AP is reporting (according to an unnamed source) that Democratic Attorney General Dustin McDaniel will drop out of the 2014 Arkansas governor's race in an announcement on Friday. McDaniel had already been in the race for some time (somewhat controversially announcing all the way back in June), but he recently suffered what appeared to be a serious blow to his chances when he was forced to reveal that he'd had an affair with an attorney who had handles cases before the AG's office.

New reports also offered a separate problem for McDaniel: Apparently, he was more extensively involved in a lawsuit brought by his father's law firm against gun manufacturer Remington Arms, following a 1998 school shooting in Jonesboro, AR, than he'd previously let on. In response, McDaniel insisted that he's "a staunch defender of Second Amendment rights" and sought to minimize his role in a new statement just published on Friday morning.

Yet assuming this report is right, something changed very abruptly for McDaniel. Now the big question is, who will run for Democrats instead? Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter had been openly eyeing the race, and a labor-backed group recently tried to encourage him to run (or so it appeared) by releasing poll data that showed McDaniel in tough shape. But with McDaniel, who already had a lot of cash banked and would likely have been the frontrunner in any primary, gone from the scene, many other candidates might start expressing interest. As always, we'll stay closely on top of any new developments.

11:03 AM PT: Geez Louise. Now the Lynch campaign is backing down ... or something. The Globe has a new report, contradicting its prior story:

US Representative Stephen F. Lynch told the Globe this afternoon that he hasn’t yet made up his mind about running for the US Senate in the special election to fill John F. Kerry’s seat. Just a day earlier, the strong message from the Lynch camp was that he would definitely be announcing his campaign next week.
Frustratingly, the paper doesn't provide Lynch's actual remarks. They should at least provide a quote so that readers can make up their own minds about Lynch's intentions, however squirrely—particularly since the Globe apparently blew this story.

Meanwhile, the much-more-trustworthy MassINC is out with its own poll of a hypothetical general election, and the numbers really sting for Democrats. Brown leads Markey 53-31, despite a much narrower 44-36 edge over Generic D. (Lynch wasn't tested.) MassINC's final poll of last year's Senate race had Elizabeth Warren beating Brown by 6; given that her final margin was around 7.5 percent, that's pretty accurate. You have to wonder if the DSCC also saw numbers like this in its internal polling and therefore made the unusual decision to rally around Markey because the situation is so potentially dire. Really, though, I can hardly stomach thinking about that possibility.

11:22 AM PT: Census: Great news! The Census Bureau has, for the first time, released demographic statistics for the new congressional districts of the 113th Congress, based on its annual American Community Survey. Unfortunately, for the moment, it looks like you can only download one district at a time through the bureau's "Easy Stats" page, but hey, it's a start.

11:28 AM PT: NJ-Gov: No surprise: Democratic state Sen. Richard Codey, who has also served as acting governor more than once, will not run for governor. Codey had been looking at a bid for a while but was apparently underwhelmed by the response he got from national Democratic groups on a recent trip to Washington, DC. And like every other Democrat, he's also trailed Gov. Chris Christie by comic-book-sized margins in every public poll.

11:32 AM PT: Heh:

No MT @DKElections: Wonder if DSCC internals look like that +22 Brown MassINC poll, hence the rally around Markey http://t.co/...
@guycecil via Twitter for iPad
In case you aren't familiar with Guy Cecil, he's the executive director of the DSCC, so, ah, yeah.

11:42 AM PT: VA Redistricting: Virginia Republicans' other electoral shenanigan currently in the works also seems to be running off the rails: According to unnamed operatives and politicians in both parties, both GOP House Speaker Bill Howell and Gov. Bob McDonnell are unhappy with the Senate's attempts to force through an underhanded mid-decade redistricting of the chamber's own map and are looking for ways to nuke it. Explains the Washington Post:

The governor and speaker are said to be struggling over whether to advance the plan or kill it. If they opt to do it in, the question becomes whether Howell should dispatch it by way of a parliamentary ruling or McDonnell by way of a veto.
If you're really so displeased that you're leaking the fact that you're trying to undermine legislation passed by members of your own party, are you really going to go ahead and then embrace it? That would cause even more problems for McDonnell and Republican leaders in Richmond than this demented legislation already has. I also have to wonder if the meltdown over the Virginia GOP's electoral college-rigging scheme might blow back in this direction as well: If the wind goes out of Republican sails over one controversial bill, the party might find itself in the doldrums over the next hot-button issue as well.

12:05 PM PT: WATN?: If I were 80 years old and had just lost a fight for renomination after a long career in office, I think I'd just sit back, enjoy a few Old Fashioneds, and maybe read some books on my Kindle that I've been meaning to get to. Perhaps former Indiana GOP Sen. Dick Lugar is planning to do all that as well, but he's also taking a teaching gig at Indiana University. He'll become a professor at IU's new School of Global and International Studies and will also head up a special program with former Rep. Lee Hamilton.

12:18 PM PT: ME-Sen: PPP's barrel of Maine miscellany includes independent Sen. Angus King's first post-election job approval ratings. He scores a 44-25, with Democrats strongly favoring him (63-11) and indies mostly positive (40-26). But his standing definitely appears to have eroded among Republicans, who give him a negative 20-45 mark. In PPP's first test (PDF) of Angus's numbers right after Olympia Snowe announced her retirement last year, he had 62-24 favorables overall, and even Republicans narrowly liked him (43-38). But obviously a partisan campaign has changed things (though also note that PPP is now asking about job approval, not favorability).

12:26 PM PT: I guess he's striking while the iron is hot: Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who lost an intensely contested primary against former Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2010, now says he will indeed run for governor, with McDaniel out. Halter's being a bit cagey ("next week I will take the first necessary step towards running"), and a formal announcement is planned later, but I'll give him a partial pass on this one since the McDaniel development seemed to take everyone by surprise, and no one wants to rush a campaign kickoff on a Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter (who'd also previously been mentioned as a possible candidate) says he, too, is considering an entry into the Democratic primary, but offered no timetable.

12:36 PM PT: IL-Gov: Uh, does Pat Quinn really want to go this route? The embattled Democratic governor, who is likely to face a primary challenge thanks to his abysmal standing in the polls, just launched this broadside at one of his most likely opponents:

“You have to deal with the House, if you’re governor, every single day, and I think it’s important that no members have conflicts of interest, and those who are in executive office shouldn’t have conflicts of interest,” Quinn said. “Especially as we clean up from my two predecessors, who are still in jail right now at the same time, we want to clean up government.”
This nasty jab is a reference to the Madigan family: Attorney General Lisa Madigan hasn't ruled out a run against Quinn, and her father is powerful state House Speaker Mike Madigan, who has served in that role (with only one minor interruption) for almost thirty years. As Capitol Fax's Rich Miller puts it, "Suggesting that Lisa Madigan could wind up in prison because of conflicts of interest between herself and the Speaker ain’t gonna go down too well." And Miller further opines that the legislature, loyal to the elder Madigan, may decide to make life hell for Quinn if he keeps this up. Personally, I think Quinn is looking pretty doomed when it comes to renomination, so maybe he just has nothing left to lose.

12:52 PM PT: Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to out-do Democrats when it comes to sheer nastiness—and succeeding:

U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, who's mulling a 2014 Republican bid for governor, chastised a pair of potential rivals Thursday, saying state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard have "proven nothing more than they can lose an election."

"Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results," said Schock, 31, a three-term congressman and former state lawmaker from Peoria who held forth on Illinois politics after a speech to the Civic Federation in Chicago.

Brady fired back by saying "he's hearing 'more people starting to question whether (Schock) can rerun for Congress' than whether Schock will run for governor," according to the Chicago Tribune. More cat fud like this, please!

1:13 PM PT: FL-Gov: According to various tea leaves, former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is apparently gearing up for a run for governor, though he's stonewalled the Miami Herald for three weeks about his intentions—before finally telling the paper he had nothing to say. That's basically the opposite of the usual dribs-and-drabs approach to teasing a campaign launch, but I'm sure it endears you to the local press even less. In any event, reporter Marc Caputo has more details on what Diaz would bring to the table for Democrats (both good and bad), and what kind of candidate he'd make (he's tight with Mike Bloomberg, barf), so click through if you'd like to learn more.

1:45 PM PT: CO-Sen, CO-06: GOP Rep. Mike Coffman says he has no plans to run against freshman Dem Sen. Mark Udall in 2014 and will seek re-election to the House. But even that route is far from awesome for him: Given how blue his district is, Coffman will be a top target for Democrats.

2:06 PM PT: And now it's official: McDaniel issued a statement on Friday afternoon, confirming that he's exiting the race because he grew "convinced that if I run for Governor, this campaign would be about me personally, rather than Arkansas's future." McDaniel is term-limited as AG and cannot run for re-election.

2:14 PM PT: NH-Gov: Conservative activist Kevin Smith, who got blitzed in last year's GOP primary, says that he hasn't ruled out another gubernatorial run in 2014. (Remember, New Hampshire elects its governor every two years.) Smith lost by 40 points to attorney Ovide Lamontagne, who received a much bigger-than-expected 12-point thumping at the hands of Democrat Maggie Hassan. That makes me think Hassan starts off in decent shape, and I don't think Smith has the chops to beat her.

2:18 PM PT: AK-Sen: Meh, tea leaves. I don't even like tea. But this is at least a little bit amusing: Joe Miller, who has long been mentioned as a possible opponent for Dem Sen. Mark Begich, reportedly met with the NRSC to discuss a possible bid. Coulda just been Jerry Moran extending Miller a minor courtesy, but it's still kinda funny to see the guy who won a Republican primary two-and-a-half years ago, only to get washed right back out by a write-in effort in the general from the woman he beat, kiss the ring of the GOP establishment.

2:28 PM PT: IA-Gov: The other week, a surprising report emerged that Dem Rep. Bruce Braley might be considering a challenge to Gov. Terry Branstad in 2014—surprising because Braley had long been viewed as a likely successor to Dem Sen. Tom Harkin, who is also up for re-election in 2014 and, like Branstad, hasn't yet announced his plans. But now Braley himself is hinting that a gubernatorial bid might be possible. In new remarks, he says that he's "planning to run for re-election in 2014," but added that "things can change." Braley also smacked back at Branstad, who had previously snarked that no member of Congress had been elected governor of Iowa since 1920:

"It's kind of interesting that he would ask you to ask me that question. ... I had breakfast the day after the inauguration with my good friend Governor Jay Inslee of the State of Washington who served in congress with me, ran for governor and was elected. ... Mike Pence, a Republican congressman from Indiana, just got sworn in as the governor of Indiana and my friend Mary Fallin who came in with my class in 2006 is now the governor of Oklahoma," Braley says.

"Are people in Iowa so different from the people in those three states that they would never consider someone who had served in congress as a governor? I don't think so."

I always love congressmen who are also political junkies!

2:39 PM PT: VA-Gov: There are plenty of candidates for "worst pollster of 2012," but one of the weirdest was Roanoke College, who consistently found George Allen ahead in last year's Senate race—except for the time they had Tim Kaine up by 10—and predicted he'd win by five points. (That's how much he lost by.) After the election, their chief, Harry Wilson, admitted that he was "drinking that Republican Kool-Aid" and was deeply unhappy with his outfit's performance.

But it's not clear that he's stopped quaffing that sweet red beverage, because Roanoke's new poll of this year's gubernatorial race is just ridic. In a two-way matchup, Republican Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Terry McAuliffe 33 to 26, with an absurd 41 percent undecided. No public poll has found a lead like that for Cuccinelli, and anyhow, topline numbers that low simply make no sense. For what it's worth, it's 25-19 Kooch in a three-way race, with GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who has threatened an independent bid, at 12. Oh yeah!

2:44 PM PT: WI-Gov: I'd be extremely surprised if Dem Rep. Ron Kind decided to challenge Gov. Scott Walker next year, so I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he's not ruling it out with an "I think it's too early for that" wave of the hand. But you don't have to rely on just my opinion: Kind said the same thing in advance of last year's gubernatorial recall, saying "We have to wait and see how this develops." Obviously he didn't run then, and while past performance is no guarantee of future results, I see no reason to expect a different outcome this time.

2:50 PM PT: And watch out: Michigan is about to get in on the electoral college scamming action, too. Republican state Rep. Pete Lund says he'll reintroduce legislation to divvy up his state's EVs by CD, and GOP Gov. Rick Snyder says he's "open minded" about the idea. Given the kinds of radical legislation the supposedly moderate Snyder has embraced in the recent past, I put nothing past him.

3:10 PM PT: One question for Democrats will be whether they can seriously contest Georgia's newly-open Senate seat. Roll Call's Joshua Miller obtained statements from two top potential recruits, Rep. John Barrow and Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Barrow says he has "no plans to run for anything else than re-election in the 12th district" but adds that he's "gratified" he's been touted as a candidate. Reed wouldn't even respond to the question at all, offering only his congratulations to Chambliss and saying it is not a day "to focus on politics." Obviously, though, that reads as a refusal to rule anything out.

3:18 PM PT: Meanwhile, Politico rounds up a list of possible Republicans:

Georgia Rep. Tom Price, who had expressed interest in challenging Chambliss in a primary, is “speaking with a number of folks across the state of Georgia” to decide whether he should run, his spokesman Ellen Carmichael said in an email.

Georgia Rep. Jack Kingston told POLITICO Friday that he is “definitely looking” at running. Rep. Paul Broun also had been weighing a primary against Chambliss; he did not react immediately to the retirement news.

Other names mentioned are Reps. Tom Graves and Phil Gingrey, former Georgia Secretary of State and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel, and former presidential candidate Herman Cain. Eric Tanenblatt, Gov. Sonny Perdue’s former chief of staff and a major donor in Atlanta, is also seen as a potential candidate.

The same piece also mentions one more Democrat: Keith Mason, a former chief of staff to Gov. Zell Miller who also served in the Clinton White House. And another GOP congressman, Lynn Westmoreland, says he, too, is looking at the contest. There will be no shortage of news on this front in the coming weeks.

3:30 PM PT: NY Redistricting: One of the most repugnant pieces of bullshit served up by Gov. Andrew Cuomo when he made his odious "deal" with Republicans on redistricting last year was the prospect of an independent commission to draw lines in future decades. It's absolute crap, though, and should horrify both progressive partisans and good-government types alike, albeit for different reasons. The best takedown appeared in the editorial pages of the Albany Times-Union, which pointed out that this supposedly independent panel would simply be made up of appointees of members of the legislature—in other words, no different from before. That's where the goo-goos are up in arms; for progressives, you'll be incensed by the fact that the proposed board would be compromised of equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, which is absurd in a state as blue as New York. Here's the real kicker, though:

Moreover, the commission would have an even number of members, a setup that would foster deadlock, just as it does on the state's partisan, ineffective Board of Elections. And if, somehow, the commission overcomes that built-in dysfunction, the maps still have to go to the Legislature for final approval. If the maps fail to get approval twice, the entire process of redistricting is handed back to the Legislature, as if this "reform" had never happened.
This is banana republican. Fortunately, New Yorkers have the power to stop this: Because this nonsense is actually in the form of a constitutional amendment, it has to go before voters in 2014. So we have the chance to vote against this monstrosity, and we damn well should. The problem is that there isn't any wealthy or powerful constituency opposed to this, but hopefully an alliance of good-government groups and liberals organizations can derail this outrage. And expect to hear me rail against it plenty over the next two years.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:00:10 AM PST

  •  Thanks for the comprehensive list (8+ / 0-)

    of meaningful Senate rules reforms the Democrats have pushed through.

    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

    by TrueBlueDem on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:10:56 AM PST

    •  Not Fair (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ArkDem14

      I'm certainly disappointed that Democrats couldn't implement a talking filibuster or shift the burden to the minority. However, we didn't end up with nothing. Anonymous holds are now gone, and the waiting period for some executive and judicial nomination votes has been cut dramatically with these new changes. In my personal opinion, I don't think that a talking filibuster or a shifting of burden to the minority would've done that much good during this Congress considering that Republicans already hold the House anyway. However, I've believed for awhile now that Harry Reid and Barack Obama need to push through as many judicial nominees as possible when they can get the chance - something they can do without the House. At least at the district court level, I think these reforms will do some good. We also made it so that there are fewer opportunities where a filibuster can be employed during conference, and the waiting period on bills will be cut down by several days as long as Reid lets the minority offer two amendments.

      They're small changes, but it's still something. I think it offers an opportunity for greater reform down the road (as long as Reid can actually be held to account, which wasn't evident this time). The pressure was much more concerted this time around than at the beginning of the last Congress, and I think the pressure for reform will only be greater at the start of the next Congress if Republicans keep this up.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:24:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  One Senator can still kill a bill, painlessly (5+ / 0-)

        That's really the long and short of it. Even the nominee reforms are weak sauce, since high-level appointments can still be used to paralyze the Senate.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:35:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  What (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Reid cooked up wasn't even a pie half baked! Plus the fact these rules expire in 2014 when Mitch McConnell could well be majority leader was a big cave in itself.

        Reid might as well of just cut a deal with McConnell to permanently ax the nuclear option so the filibuster is never touched by anyone ever. Personally that's the route Reid should of gone if he was worried about rocking the boat.

        But then again it looks like Reid just wanted to grease the wheels instead of overhaul the entire machinery. Which is fine, I just wish he was honest with us about that from the beginning.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:38:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Anonymous holds are really going away? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        I also think that Reid (and myself) fear that if they go past a certain point, Republicans will go whole-hog when they have the majority.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:10:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's a legitimate concern (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, dc1000, WisJohn

          It wasn't so long ago (2005) when the GOP was pushing for a "nuclear option" which would have eliminated most filibusters of judicial nominees, and which could have been easily translated to legislation; the temptation to have Dick Cheney come over and, as presiding officer, dictate an end to debate whenever things got sticky would probably have been too great.

          And that was when the GOP had the presidency and Senate, by a 55-45 margin (same as Dems today).  Such a situation could recur and if filibusters and other extensive delaying tactics were abolished could leave Senate Democrats without too much more power than House minority members.

          I agree that the Senate isn't supposed to require 60 votes to confirm the Undersecretary of Agriculture or amend a natural resources bill, but I think Reid is right to be concerned about establishing precedents that could hurt badly with a change in majority control.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:25:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  the GOP doesn't care about precedents (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bharat, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

            logical consistency or basic fairness. Just like they're proud of holding onto the house by gerrymandering and are seriously considering stacking the electoral college in their favor, they will do everything in their power to push their agenda through. If/when the GOP takes over the Senate again, the filibuster will be gone. It would have been better to reform it now (or better: 2009) before the GOP does it for us.

  •  Unfortunately (5+ / 0-)

    This is the number of beers I have been allowed to drink before our 3.5 hour annual goals and objectives meeting at work. Ugh.

  •  Sen. Chambliss to retire! (17+ / 0-)

    http://blogs.ajc.com/... Paging Thurbert Baker or someone else of high caliber.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:55:55 AM PST

    •  what's the bench here? could Barrow be formidable? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

      by Bharat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:57:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He could, yes, but... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, jncca, MichaelNY

        if he runs, we lose GA-12.  I think he said he wants to stay in the House, but a Chambliss retirement might lead to people asking him again.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:58:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  There's also ex-AG Thurbert Baker (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

        some Mayors as well.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:59:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah what about the mayor of atlanta? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

          by Bharat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:04:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not Kasim Reed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dc1000, LordMike, ArkDem14

            A few weeks ago, I talked with a friend who lives in Georgia about Kasim Reed on Facebook and asked whether or not he thought Reed would be a good candidate for higher office. He hasn't been impressed. Here are a few of the comments he had to offer:

            Kasim Reed is a fucking idiot and would be a terrible challenger

            and his general reputation is that of a fucking idiot

            he's had a revolving door of graft allegations ever since he took office

            Atlanta city employees' pay has gone up but efficiency has not

            Hartsfield-Jackson's new terminal was a generally unforgettably huge clusterfuck that almost got him put in court

            Reed was the biggest backer of TSPLOST

            and he got tons of flak for it in the media

            He's also noted on the side that Reed would lose an intelligence contest with "a box of hair." He has decent approval ratings for now, but there's no telling how he would fare in a statewide campaign where he wouldn't be completely ensconced in very liberal Atlanta.

            The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

            by AndySonSon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:31:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  How about Shirley Franklin? nt (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dc1000
              •  Horrible (0+ / 0-)

                I have heard similar things as above about Reed but apparently he is a Rhodes Scholar compared to Franklin.

                •  Um, what? (6+ / 0-)
                  In 2005, TIME Magazine named Franklin of the five best big-city American mayors.[7] In October of that same year, she was included in the U.S. News & World Report "Best Leaders of 2005" issue.[9]

                  With solid popular support and strong backing from the business sector, Franklin was reelected Atlanta Mayor in 2005, garnering more than 90 percent of the vote.[10] Her popularity has led to increased speculation that she may well be a viable contender for a future Georgia governor's race.[11]

                  In February 2006, The White House Project named Shirley Franklin one of its "8 in '08", a group of eight female politicians who could possibly run and/or be elected president in 2008.[12] She was the only person the list to not be a governor, senator or presidential cabinet member, and one of two African-American women on the list; the other was United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.[12]

                  Franklin was one of the most generally prominent and nationally respected Atlanta mayors in recent history. And her more pro-business, cosmpolitan profile do make her more palatable to suburban white voters.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:54:47 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  She also received (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, JDJase, askew, DCCyclone

                  the Profile in Courage Award in 2005 from the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation for the tough choices she made to reform the city and balance the budget after the disastrous and corrupt mayoralty of Bill Campbell, who by all accounts was a true clusterfuck.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:57:19 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  What about the Mayor of Macon? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Also, Savannah, Augusta, whatever.

              I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:13:10 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Those are exactly the kind of comments to IGNORE (5+ / 0-)

              There is nothing thoughtful there.  Just a lot of emotion without any supporting information.  It's the sort of thing one finds in angry anonymous blog comments that are easily debunked.

              To be clear, Reed might very well be a terrible choice, and he says he's completely uninterested anyway so this is purely academic.

              But those comments don't make me feel the least bit more informed than before I read them.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:30:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  State Senator Jason Carter (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xcave, MichaelNY
        •  Forgot about hime (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He could indeed be pretty formidable. Would be a Liz Warren type candidate--his advantage would be a national fund raising base and huge enthusiasm among the base.

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:25:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Can "Liz Warren type candidate" (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            Win in Georgia?

            •  I didn't mean it as a direct comparison (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Englishlefty, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              Obviously Carter would have to run a campaign that is significantly to the right of Warren's. I meant it more as something that would be analogous in a state like Georgia. Along the gradient of potential Democratic campaigns in Massachusetts, Warren ran one that focused less on crossover appeal and more on base enthusiasm. Among the gradient of potential Democratic campaigns in Georgia, I imagine that Carter would do something similar, while someone like Barrow or Baker would do the opposite.

              "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

              by xcave on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:09:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  May not be the grandson you're thinking about (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, bumiputera

            Not the one who exposed Romney's video.

            •  That wasn't what I was thinking at all (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I don't think it's that far of a reach to assume that someone young and with the last name "Carter" would generate a lot of support from nationwide donors, regardless of the extent of his participation in the 2012 election.

              "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

              by xcave on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:04:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  bench (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Former rep Jim Marshall (held red district 2002-2010) is 66. Ex-gov Roy Barnes (lost by 10 in open gov race in 2010) is 66. Jim Martin (lost to Chambliss by 3 on election day 2008, 15 in runoff) is 69.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:50:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Will depend on who GOP nominates... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      I suspect it will be Karen Handel and I think she'd be really tough to beat.

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:17:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah. Unfortunately, anyone but Broun would be (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        hard to beat.

        •  And Paul Broun (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          would not be a cakewalk.

          •  Runoffs make this likely a pipe dream (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sawolf

            It's a heavy lift for teabaggers to get someone not only a plurlity in the primary, but then an absolute majority in a runoff.

            I'm convinced no teabagger who is beatable by a Democrat can win a majority in a GOP primary in a split field.  And in a 2-way in Round 2, it's almost certainly too steep a hill to climb.

            The runoff system makes it very tough for us in any very conservative states that has it.  Even David Pluoffe admitted around convention time in 2008 that OFA needed Bob Barr to do considerably better than he ultimately did to let Obama win a 47% plurality, with the Presidency the only office where a plurality carries Georgia.

            I get potentially excited about this race until I remind myself of the runoff system.  Then I get dejected and shelve the fantasies.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:37:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  So Teabaggers can't get a majority in a primary (0+ / 0-)

              runoff in GA?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:37:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's tough without establishment support (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I don't see someone like Paul Broun getting to a runoff and then winning against a Karen Handel or Tom Price, who are plenty conservative with no apostasies.  A runoff means that much more money and some way to drive turnout.

                Much harder is for a Dem to win a runoff after the general, if we hold the Republican nominee under 50.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:31:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  This is going to be the cat fud extravaganza (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that puts all other cat fud primaries to shame.  I can't wait!!

  •  Saxby Chambliss will not run for re-election (6+ / 0-)

    http://blogs.ajc.com/...

    U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss will announce this morning that he’s dropping plans to run for a third term in 2014, a decision certain to set off an avalanche of Republican candidates who will seek to replace him.

    it's all in the game yo

    by Minnesota Mike on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:56:13 AM PST

  •  Oh hey wasn't I (4+ / 0-)

    talking about this yesterday?

    CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal called on the Republican Party to "stop being the stupid party" on Thursday as GOP leaders promised fundamental changes to help stave off future losses.

    In the keynote address at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, Jindal said the GOP doesn't need to change its values but "might need to change just about everything else we are doing."

    "We've got to stop being the stupid party. It's time for a new Republican Party that talks like adults," he said. "We had a number of Republicans damage the brand this year with offensive and bizarre comments. I'm here to say we've had enough of that."

    Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/...

    I still think they yearn for the good ole days of the Dark Ages but that's a conversation for another post at another time.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:28:24 AM PST

    •  "something called volcano monitoring..." n/t (8+ / 0-)
    •  That's a vague criticism he has (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      stupid comes in many forms.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:14:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think the Republicans will not take well this (0+ / 0-)

      because he can be one of those "adults" running, and he will not, improving a lot the prospect for M Landrieu.

      •  What are you suggesting? (0+ / 0-)

        That Republicans in Louisiana will vote for Landrieu as a result of this? If that's what you mean, it doesn't make sense.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:09:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, no, it was not this (0+ / 0-)

          I mean that the Republicans can blame him if they win not LA-Sen 2014. And more if they lose because they have one of this not "adult" candidates (akin or Mourdock style) winning a place for the last runoff vs Landrieu.

          If he want serious candidates for the senate, other Republicans can attack him for getting out of the race in his home state. To have not him in the race is an obvious damage for their prospect in LA.

          Landrieu is not as weak. I can see Landrieu winning this race.

          •  In other words (0+ / 0-)

            You think Jindal could beat Landrieu, but you doubt any other LA Republican can. I don't think that's his fault, though. Even if we take his word that he's an "adult" candidate (which there is room to doubt), he is not the only possible one.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:38:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, and it is not his fault to be the alone (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              fist level Republican in Louisiana. It is not his fault to make a difference in the race.

              But at same time he shows that he is not and he want not to be a team player. And this is his fault. He want a Republican majority but without work for it. He want serious Republican candidates but without becoming one of them. I think this is what the Republicans can see bad from him.

              And this is just what I would thank him now. Without him in the race M Landrieu is the favourite.

              I think it is a very longshot for him to look at the race for President in 2016. But if he want this, better for us.

    •  Coming from the sand berm guy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      that's pretty rich: http://news.yahoo.com/...

    •  It hasn't stopped Jindal (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      from still refusing to look at raising taxes (despite years of massive cuts and budget deficits because of his entering act of cutting taxes by repealing the Stelley Plan back in early 2008). Even though now he's gutted higher education funding something horrible, led to rising tuition costs and hurt the standing of the State's University system (LSU had to eliminate entire departments because of how bad Jindal cut their budget), and now he's gutted the state hospital system, essentially privatizing it in order to stop the state from having a deficit. It means fewer residency opportunities for medical students in the state, and less access to health care to some of the very poorest areas of the state, including in New Orleans.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:01:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ah Mr. Jindal (4+ / 0-)

      Governor of the great state of Louisiana. Talk about a pot/kettle situation we got here.

      This from the man who snuck in to an ed reform bill zero accountability for religious schools to use public money to teach Christianity as scientific fact.

      From the man who dismantled one of the last great public hospital systems.

      From the man who is almost destroying LSU, my alma mater, and other public universities.

      From the man who tried to cut end-of-life care from Medicaid (only one other state I believe doesn't cover this).

      From the man who wants to raise taxes on the poor by almost doubling the sales tax while eliminating income and corporate taxes.

      A real leader, our Governor, Mr. Piyush Bobby Jindal.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:38:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The stuff all you guys are citing... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sawolf

        ...in Jindal's record adds up to a long list of vulnerabilities.

        Every elected official has his/her share, no doubt, but this stuff is pretty hard to defend in a general election.  I realize it's impossible to make an informed guess on what people's priorities might be in 2016, but given that Jindal doesn't really fit any niche at all in his persona, his record is going to matter and it's hard to see what's in there that particularly appeals to anyone outside the GOP base.

        He calls himself a "reformer," and I realize for the moment some in the media parrot this, but that's short-lived as all media coverage always is.  It's awfully hard to sell his "reform" as anything appealing to folks in Berks County or Loudoun County or Arapahoe County.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:00:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Jindal's ideology is nihilism (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      That's what conservatism has morphed into:  nihilism.

      Your blockquote doesn't reveal that, but it becomes clear following his other comments at this event as quoted on Twitter by political journalists I follow.  Much of his message was that the federal government and its issues don't matter, and he threw in a quip that was his own warmed-over version of Reagan's "government is the problem."  Of course, this is exactly the ideology voters just rejected 2 months ago.  The election was explicitly about just that issue, the role of government, and we won.  But Jindal and others don't see a path to the nomination that way.

      That said, nothing said now in random speeches matters for 2016.  We have no idea what the mentalities of the GOP electorate and the general electorate will be after the next midterms.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:46:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  OH-Gov (6+ / 0-)

    Not sure if he would be our strongest candidate, but Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) Exec Ed Fitzgerald will be in Cincinnati for a talk tomorrow. Usually Cleveland politicians don't end up in Cincinnati by accident, so I'm guess he's at least gauging support.

    http://cincinnati.com/...

    OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

    by aamail6 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:51:07 AM PST

  •  Handel is in (5+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:11:21 AM PST

  •  Possible names. (5+ / 0-)

    Max Cleland- Not going to happen but this would be a lean D affair if he entered.

    John Barrow- Would likely make the race competitive. It is of note that the state is more Democratic than his district so this may even be a more desirable option now.

    Jason Carter- Grandson of President Carter, State Senator from Atlanta. He would be a good get if a nut gets the R nod.

    John Thurber- Impressive career as Attorney General for three terms. Would get African American voters out and has good crossover appeal and name rec.

    Roy Barnes- After two unsuccessful statewide runs I can't see it, but he was the only candidate besides Cleland that actually lead Tom Price.

    •  I'm rooting for (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, JohnnyBoston, MichaelNY

      Barrow to run for Governor and Carter to run for Senate. I think that would be an incredibly strong ticket for Democrats. Barrow would supply the down ticket help in rural areas and among independents. Carter would supply the money and base turnout.

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:44:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the vice versa would make more sense. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:48:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Please explain (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          My thought was that it's much more important for a gubernatorial candidate to have an ideology that is in line with the state--not only because he'd actually make decisions that directly affect people's lives, but also because he probably gets more coverage among the local media. For those reasons, I'd want the stronger and safer candidate to run for governor in order to not frighten independents out of voting Democrat. Senate races, on the other hand, have the potential to draw huge national attention and money. I feel that Carter running for governor would hinder his biggest advantage: the enthusiasm he would generate among national progressives. I also think moderates and independents will be more okay with voting for a candidate that is young and to their left when that person will just end up spending all his time in Washington anyway. A governor is almost like a member of your family (and I feel that holds doubly true in a small Southern state like Georgia); a senator is just 1 out of 100 at the end of the day.

          I'm open to the alternative argument, but right now the decision is pretty obvious to me.

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:01:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nope, just the opposite (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY, JDJase

            A Senate race is more nationalized. Much easier to run against the "liberal Democrats" in the Senate. You need a more conservative candidate to counter this.

            This is why you have Republican governors in liberal states such as New Jersey and Dem governors in conservative states like Montana.

    •  John Thurber? (5+ / 0-)

      You mean Thurbert Baker?

      Though, speaking of Thurbers, it would be interesting to see what the great humorist James Thurber would have to say about politics, government, and society today.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:51:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm kinda hoping against hope (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Cleland will be coaxed into this race (I firmly believe he could beat a teabagger), but I'm not getting my hopes up.

      Barrow or Carter are probably our strongest possible candidates.

    •  Lean D for Cleland with 2nd level Republicans (0+ / 0-)

      But still without H Cain the Republicans have two candidates that I fear:

      S Perdue
      N Gingrich

      With them I think it would not be better than a Toss-Up even with M Cleland. But well still they are out.

    •  what about one of the oldtimers (0+ / 0-)

      like Darden. He held a Cobb County district for a dozen years.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:41:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  he's got no name rec (0+ / 0-)

        seems like a Tier 3 candidate at best.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:34:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Lean D with Cleland? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone

      How do you figure?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:35:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My reaction same as Michael's (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm sorry but "lean D" is badly misguided, Cleland lost in a state hostile to his/our party and that alone automatically discredits a "lean D" rating.

        I wouldn't even call it a tossup with Cleland, I'd say lean R with him or anyone else.

        Our only path to victory is for some crazy teabagger who even quite a few center-right white voters can't stand manages to survive a split field primary and then win a runoff on top of it......a tall order I can't imagine happening.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:03:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Price and Handel are close (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    they're very close to each other, so if Handel is going to run, she already setting up her website, I don't see Price running.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:26:48 AM PST

  •  My take on GA-Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Cain and Erik Erickson have already taken themselves out. Paul Broun will almost certainly run, as will Karen Handel (she's already announced). I don't think Price will run. I don't know who else is out there.

    If Handel wins the nomination, she'd be tough (but not impossible) to beat. If it's Broun, I think he could be beat - he's cut out of the same mode as Mourdock and Akin.

    On our side, I definitely favor John Barrow for the seat, even if we lose his House seat. It's a worthwhile tradeoff. I hope he runs. I think he'd be an incredibly strong candidate.

    (I'm much more neutral about Baker. Against Broun, maybe, but I think he'd be a sure loser against Handel).

    •  I agree with you on Barrow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      At the very least, the GOP would have to spend money here if Barrow ran. Expanding the field would be good, given that we are playing so much defense in 2014. It would be worth it to give up a House seat.

      Is Handel actually running? There is a Handel for Senate website, but I dont know if she has registered it, and I dont think she has said anything. But it wouldnt surprise me if she did run.

    •  What did Broun said to make you think he'll run? (0+ / 0-)

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:16:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think Handel is impossible for us to beat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There's nothing about her that hurts her in a general election in Georgia against a Democrat.  Georgia has a solidly conservative majority in its electorate, to peel off any of them toward even a very good fit of a Democrat requires the GOP to nominate someone Todd Akin/Sharron Angle/Joe Miller level.

      Roy Barnes' double-digit loss in 2010 was pretty sobering, and I don't think it can be dismissed for the fact of a GOP wave year.  Barnes was well-liked personally and had a scandal-plagued sleezeball of a Republican to run against, and still couldn't come remotely close.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:07:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why not Max Cleland? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He'll be 72yo, but so what.  He could run saying he didn't want to go out smeared like he was and he thinks he has something still to offer.  He has remained politically active - was at the DNC Convention IIRC, and has spoken out in defense of Kerry and Hagel nominations.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:43:09 AM PST

  •  DelCo election results by precinct (9+ / 0-)

    Alright, folks, I'm borrowing my best college friend's car to go to Media, to copy and bring back DelCo's election results by precinct (which it refuses to publish online). Consider the gas and copying fees my in kind donation to political junkies everywhere... I'll publish them online somewhere and send them along so PA-01 and PA-07's presidential tallies can be completed.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:58:07 AM PST

    •  It's amazing that a county as populous (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, gabjoh, sapelcovits

      As DelCo has such a backwards election Reporting system.

      •  *Sigh* (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        Quite annoying. BTW, I stayed overnight at Beloit College last Friday night with a girl I've been dating. Pretty area and parts of town are quite nice.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:32:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Does she go to Beloit (0+ / 0-)

          Or were you there for another reason. And yeah, it's a reasonably pretty College. They've also done great things with the downtown and riverside areas in the last 20 years. There are some parts of town that aren't as great, but overall it's a nice town as post-industrial cities go.

          •  Beloit (0+ / 0-)

            Yep, she's a junior at Beloit College. I stayed at one of the sorority houses on campus where she lives. They have some really nice upperclassman housing at her school (my housing, although I'm an underclassman, is nothing to be envied even though my school's a great one). I expected Beloit to be a lot more like Rockford or any of the post industrial towns in Michigan I always passed through when going to visit my grandparents in Michigan, but it had some super pretty parts around the college, on campus, downtown, and along the river. I also had a good breakfast at a place called Shortstack.

            Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

            by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:42:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mind if I ask which soronity she's in (0+ / 0-)

              Or is that too personal?

              There are some pretty decent upperclassmen dorms, although the rooms are a bit small in some of them. If you're ever back here, though, you should check out the '64 halls - someone decided that not building straight hallways made them "riot proof" (this was the 60s) and they have the sketchiest tunnels underneath.

  •  Mo8ction update (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    The Dems have decided to not nominate their candidate on Sunday, but they'll nominate a candidate on February 9th (same day as the Rs and Libertarians). The meeting on Sunday comes a forum with State Rep Linda Black and Todd Mahn. Also the CD committee chairman resigned last night.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:16:35 AM PST

  •  WH brings OFA pollster into the mix: (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MBishop1, itskevin, MichaelNY, askew

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:22:01 AM PST

  •  VA Electoral College gerrymandering news (14+ / 0-)

    Via Twitter

    Fiddler ‏@cFidd

    Big #VA Electoral College gerrymandering news: GOP Sen. Ralph Smith opposes the bill, virtually guaranteeing its failure in committee Tues.
    Retweeted by PaulBlumenthal

    it's all in the game yo

    by Minnesota Mike on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:26:37 AM PST

    •  I was about to post that, thanks. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Minnesota Mike, dc1000

      Good news indeed.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:27:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More: (8+ / 0-)
      He added that he would only consider a shift in Virginia's electoral vote rules "if every state does it that way."

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:28:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If the electoral college rigging schemes (6+ / 0-)

      fall through, I wonder if there's a chance that republican states might get behind the national popular vote initiative? Have Republicans noticed that Obama's tipping point state had a larger margin in his favor than the national vote in each of the last two elections? Have they noticed that there are a number of slightly Dem-leaning states, like PA, MI, WI, MN, NV, CO, NM, etc., while most Republican states are deep red, which favors Dems in the electoral college? Nothing is certain, but all things being equal it would seem like a good bet for the republicans to move towards a national popular vote system.

      Which would also be good for democracy.

    •  My theory of why it failed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      My theory of why Republicans would have second thoughts about it: It would lead Democrats to target not the state but potentially winnable congressional districts within the state. And that could lead to the defeat of the GOP congressmen who currently represent many of these seats. In Pennsylvania, it was suburban GOP congressmen from purplish districts who persuaded the legislature not to try a stunt like this for the 2012 election.

      As I wrote elsewhere, "I don't think Congressmen Wittman, Rigell, Forbes, Hurt, and Wolf are going to like the plan at all. All of them were held to under 60 percent (that sounds like a comfortable margin but Congressmen worry easily) and all come from districts where the presidential race was reasonably close. It's hard for me to think their concerns won't be enough to persuade at least one Virginia GOP state senator--which is all it takes to defeat the plan."

    •  I've never been seriously worried about this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm just as outraged as everyone else, and everyone should be.

      But it's impotant not to conflate the outrageousness of GOP thuggery with its odds of success.

      This was always a laughable longshot for the GOP, to try to rig this system like this across a bunch of random states that have their own state-based political considerations that are not in sync with each other.  Pulling this off in any one state is extremely hard and the odds very long, and doing so in coordination in several states is impossible absent some popular national movement to do it almost everywhere.

      I've been more worried about the Virginia state Senate re-map, not sure what will come of that.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:22:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-SEN: so apparently Lynch is running in part (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, MichaelNY, askew

    because a poll showed him beating Markey by 10, and doing better vs. Brown.

    The poll was conducted by David Paleologos. He is the Suffolk polling director who said they would stop polling NC, VA and FL because Romney was going to win those states.

    I mean, maybe he is better at polling MA, but still, they couldnt find anybody else to do the poll?

    link.

    •  Problem for Lynch (10+ / 0-)

      is that Paleologos would probably refuse to do any further polling, believing Lynch has the primary wrapped up.  So, he'll have no idea where he stands as election day approaches.

    •  I'm of two minds on Lynch... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, JohnnyBoston, LordMike

      Because I think he'd appeal to the working class support that Brown appeals to.  Would folks say "Lynch and Brown are pretty much the same, so vote in Brown and have a better Dem take on Brown in 2014" or "Since Brown and Lynch are the same, send back Brown because then we have a Republican in their caucus"?  Or will Brown not be able to pull the barn coat and truck gimmick against Lynch and keep the working class folks from bleeding over to Brown in a Special Election where winning votes of sure voters matters more than simple turn out machines.  

      Lynch can also present himself as an independent Democrat given his vote against Obamacare even with the full weight of all available pressures put on him.  

      Lynch will try to run against the "establishment pick" Ed Markey, try to get the unions on his side (they'll likely be there too) - I just think his campaign will be the same campaign Brown will run.   So while Markey should win in any primary, Lynch could cement some frames against Markey that Brown could then continue on with.

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:38:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A Paleological decision (6+ / 0-)

      It's okay, though -- I'm sure he's given up on polling the race now because Rep. Lynch is sure to win.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:45:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Judge Vacates NLRB Appointments (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    http://bigstory.ap.org/...

    This was the one big area where Obama could have (and I think has) made progress in strengthening labor rights and it looks as if that is now down the toilet.

    Social Democrat, WI-05

    by glame on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:32:14 AM PST

    •  They can't undo NLRB decisions made this year. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hopefully, they can get more in with a stronger Senate Dem majority than last year.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:34:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I imagine they will appeal the decision n/t (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, LordMike, MichaelNY, askew
    •  Will appeal up the food chain... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Besides recess appointments would have been up after a year anyways.  CJ Roberts seemed to think recess appointments were the way to go back in 2010 and the GOP holding pro-forma sessions so that there are no recesses probably wouldn't sit well with CJ Roberts either because it's blocking what Roberts believes is a proper option for Presidents to use.  

      Because otherwise a House majority or Sen minority could block every nominee/appointee for four years of a Presidents term and there would be nothing the Pres could do about it.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:45:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is a VERY extreme court decision (8+ / 0-)

      The decision essentially eliminates the recess appointment power as it has been understood to exist for over a century. It is classic right-wing activism, and it should not have been done. So, the only hope is the Supreme Court reaching a sane conclusion.

      •  Note that Republicans have filibustered (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, askew

        appointments to that DC court mercilessly. One of the seats has been empty since John Roberts was elevated to the Supremes. There are currently two nominees waiting approval, and they've been waiting a very long time. One has been repeatedly filibustered (for no good reason), but Obama keeps renominating her.

        So it's kind of ironic that this particular court, kept more conservative than it should be by the filibuster, tries to thwart a presidential prerogative to circumvent an unreasonable filibuster of other important appointments.

      •  The precedent goes back to the 1820s (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I believe. That's what the reporting on NPR has been saying. It's kind of the antithesis of Marbury v. Madison, which upheld a questionable appointment by a president while affirming the Court's power to pass judgment on constitutional questions.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:48:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Another day, another superhero act by Cory Booker (6+ / 0-)

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:32:30 AM PST

  •  old school vid of the day (4+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:22:37 AM PST

  •  Lynch says he has NOT decided on Senate run yet (6+ / 0-)

    Breaking news banner on Boston Herald's site.

  •  Harkin re: fillibuster reform (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, itskevin, MichaelNY

    Not trying to start any panic around here, but I worry about Harkin's comments here and what they mean for his decision on whether or not to run in 2014. If he feels that "Obama may as well take a four year vacation" why would Harkin bother to run again?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    •  I agree with you (6+ / 0-)

      I had that same thought as well.

      Especially with his vote against the fiscal cliff deal. I worry that + this failure of filibuster reform might cause him to retire. Hopefully not.

      Although unlike WV, I think we'd have a much better chance to hold IA. Hopefully, Braley, who has mentioned running for gov,  would run here instead.

    •  He should if he feels that way. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Reid rolled over because he likes the obstruction because it makes him the deal maker and have all the power.  

      I'd rather Harkin leave the caucus if he doesn't plan on running in 2014.  Make that statement glaringly clear over the next two years.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:13:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He doesn't like it. (0+ / 0-)

        He just doesn't want to open the floodgates that could come back to bite Democrats hard in the future.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:25:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He likes it, because he could have changed it. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          But note he did basically the same thing to the GOP in the latter years of Bush Admin.  And blocked a shit ton of judiciary appointments.  

          He also protected Pryor, Begich, Landrieu, Baucus, Johnson, and Hagan with doing nothing.  I guess he figures hopefully holding a majority in 2014 is better than making changes now when the GOP House can block any legislation anyways.  

          I bet Reid is removed from leadership in 2014 regardless if we keep the majority or not.  Too many new Senators who were never part of the tired, do-nothing comity garbage.  

          "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:31:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What don't you get? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, James Allen, jncca

            Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and West Virginia will not be basing their votes on whether the incumbent voted to eliminate the motion to proceed, whether the incumbent voted to allow the motion to proceed in several cases, whether conference committees can be filibustered or anything else.

            If he got rid of the filibuster all together, he would have 55 votes and could excuse 5 Democrats to vote against his bills every time.

            Reid's action is solely because he wants to be able to filibuster legislation when he's in the minority.

            •  What don't you get? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I'm not and never have claimed that they'd be voted against for any vote on elimination of the motion to proceed.   I'm saying when there is the 60 vote threshold it gives these red state Senators cover on their votes.  

              Lincoln, Lieberman, Conrad, Nelson all became public enemies here and with Dems when we had 60 seats and they had to be the heavies to then pull any legislation to the center (specifically the ACA).  

              If there was no 60 vote threshold, you'd then put these red state Senators in the position to have to pull the legislation to where they're more comfortable or kill it by voting with GOP - and folks here and Dems would be up in arms.  Or they could vote with the Dems no matter what the bill is and be painted as Sanders-Lovin' Obamacrats.

              If Reid could simply allow 5 Senators to vote against it, it would hurt all these five back home with Democrats.  See what's being written about Lynch today because of his ACA vote when it passed anyways.  

              You can disagree with this premise all you like, but don't ascribe to me some strawman argument you dreamed up and then get up on your soapbox against it.  

              "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

              by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:15:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Why does he count on the good will (0+ / 0-)

              and good behavior of Republicans? Do you understand that?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:54:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I don't agree that Reid is likely to be removed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Jacques Kallis

            as leader, unless perhaps the Democrats actually lose control of the Senate. Not that they really have that much control, with this filibuster rule and its routine abuse.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:56:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  That would be a poor decision. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hasn't he already said he wants to run again.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:25:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2015 United Kingdom general election (7+ / 0-)

    You know instead of trying to leave the EU, maybe David Cameron should figure out how to dig Britain out of this hole him, George Osbourne and their team of idiots got the country into:

    LONDON - Britain's economy shrank more than expected at the end of 2012 with a North Sea oil production slump, lower factory output and a hangover from London's Olympics pushing it perilously close to a "triple-dip" recession.

    The country's gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts.

    The news is a blow for Britain's Conservative-led government, which a day earlier defended its austerity program against criticism from the International Monetary Fund. It needs solid growth to meet its budget targets, keep a triple-A debt rating and bolster its chances of winning a 2015 election.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:42:12 AM PST

    •  The great thing is, (6+ / 0-)

      the looming defeat for Conservatives in Britain is going to be done at the hands of a younger, newer, and actually progressive generation of Labor Party leaders.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:12:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Labour Party is Pathetic (0+ / 0-)

      George Osbourne, whether you agree with him or not, did not "dig" the UK into this hole. The massive deficit that the UK has been left with was due to the economic incompetence of the previous Labour government.

      Both the Labour Party in the UK and the Republican Party in the US have something very much in common; they are both financially incompetent, gave their nations massive debts during the 2000s, and are now trying to blame the other party for the mess they themselves created. There is no-one to blame but themselves.

      George Osbourne is actually more socially progressive than most Democrats you can find.

      Also, Big News:
      The Conservative Government have introduced their bill to legalise same-sex marriage (Labour had 13 years and didn't even attempt it), and it will be voted on for the first time on Tuesday, 5th February.
      There is a chance it may fail, because the Labour Party may vote against the Programme Motion (like they threatened to do with Lords Reform).

  •  Does anyone know which 9 Democrats voted against (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    the filibuster deal? Can't find it anywhere.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:59:16 AM PST

  •  What? Brown up big? Really?!?! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    I thought Brown was greatly damaged from his run against Warren and Markey was a great candidate and all the Mass Dems were going to rally around him with sunshine and roses.  

    This is on Obama and Kerry.  Period.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:11:19 AM PST

    •  Kerry will probably be a (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY, askew

      really good Secretary of State though.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:20:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better than Susan Rice? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Chachy

        Better than William Burns? I think Kerry is much more valuable in the Senate as a solid progressive enough voice.  Read what he said about climate change yesterday and tell me how that matters a lick now as Secretary of State.  

        Kerry being replaced by Scott Brown in the Senate is a HUGE step down.  

        And now we have Sen Menendez as Chairman of the Foreign Relations committee currently being investigated by the FBI for some foreign relations with some underage prostitutes while on vacation in the DR.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:26:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually Secretary of State (7+ / 0-)

          is one of the biggest places where someone could make a difference fighting climate change, in the form of working for international treaties and promoting it to the American public.

          And yes, I do think Kerry will be a better Secretary of State than Susan Rice would have been. He's more familiar with world leaders, and has a long experience dealing with foreign policy issues. What's more, he's seems a lot more personable and flexible than Rice is.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:30:38 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You can't push for international climate treaties (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            when America is the lead polluter and will do nothing about it.  

            Where was Sec. Clinton the last four years on climate matters?  Sec. of State is very largely out of sight, out of mind domestically unless there is an international incident.  

            I like Kerry in the spot, but not when it means Scott Brown back in the Senate, because this time he'll be here to stay.  So 55 senators becomes 54 Senators leading into the 2014 mid-terms (Brown would win re-election then easily), meaning we could only lose four seats out of WV (goner), Begich, Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, Baucus, Johnson.  

            "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

            by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:36:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Haha! (6+ / 0-)

              Brown would win reelection easily. Quit talking out of your ass, as the crude vernacular goes. It's maddening and stupid to write off races before they even begin. Even if Brown does manage to scrape by in another special election victory, there's no gurantee he could do it in a normal election.

              Not to mention your smarmy hyperventilation should wait until Brown actually declares he's running for the seat, and not for Governor, or heading off to make a lot of money a year as a lobbyist or some pundit or interest group leader.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:39:38 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who would challenge him in 2014? (0+ / 0-)

                None of the other Reps, as they only want to run when their House seats are not at risk.  Patrick would beat him but he's leaving public office.  The state office holders are looking at Governor gig or staying in their current spot.  

                Warren was a national fundraising rockstar in a Presidential year.  There isn't another one of those, and it's not a Presidential year.  

                Brown would be stupid as hell not to run now.  He's not executive material - he knows the Senate and likes it.  And he's polling 10 points ahead, over 50% against a long time congressman who hasn't ran a competitive race in decades and is having the deck cleared for him.  

                Re-elected Brown would vote with Dems like crazy the next 15 months, what hurt him was his early votes - but he learned to play the game - voting with Dems on votes that didn't matter by the last year of his term.  

                "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:48:40 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  not executive material? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                  Before Coakley blew the Senate race, he was running to get his name rec up for Gov. in 2010.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:42:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Why do you keep talking like (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, JBraden, MichaelNY, askew

          Brown is already in the running.  Besides, that BS about the prostitutes was some dumb unbacked claim.  In any event, the DR is a jurisdiction that has legalized prostitution.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:32:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It was a wild claim (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY, askew

            almost certainly exaggerated, and which had no relevance. Menendez is not "under investigation", and if he had seen a prostitute in the Dominican Republic, (disregarding some of the claims), he's not married so he isn't cheating on his family or anything.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:36:11 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Well, Fox is pushing the story again... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            With the FBI refusing to comment.  

            http://www.foxnews.com/...

            "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

            by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:40:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  He's only represented 1/10th the state (7+ / 0-)

      1/9th since last year. 60% don't know who Markey is.  Besides, what if Brown doesn't run?

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:28:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Plus, so far Markey has been (5+ / 0-)

        pretty low-key and not pounding the pavement (more than likely because Kerry hasn't resigned his seat yet).  That will change quickly enough.  Remember when Elizabeth Warren went from being down double digits against Brown to being ahead by two in the space of a couple weeks?

        Don't get me wrong, I wish Markey's numbers were better.  But there's no way in hell he's down this far.

    •  Calm down. (9+ / 0-)

      Brown cannot trap lightning in a bottle twice, should he run.  Most of what helped him back in January 2010 won't be there this time.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:29:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Get over it already... (8+ / 0-)

      You've already made it abundantly clear that you think that John Kerry and Barack Obama should be ashamed of themselves (Kerry for daring to want to be Secretary of State, and Obama for daring to want him as Secretary of State).

      By the way, this is early polling, Jacoby, early polling showed Scott Brown being absolutely destroyed by Martha Coakley in 2009, and early polling showed Scott Brown destroying Elizabeth Warren. There's literally no campaign going on right now, so polling right now is basically worthless.

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:44:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh come on (0+ / 0-)

        Sure campaigns matter, but there have been many polls with Brown crushing the congresscritters over the past years.

        It's completely delusional to not understand that Brown enters this race the huge favorite, and that Kerry and Obama are more likely than not creating a smaller margin in the Senate than there is now.

        The denial here is astonishing.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:04:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm so, so sick of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      several DKEers who seem to have terminal cases of infective pessimism. Kerry hasn't even resigned and according to some Scott Brown is already senator-elect. It would tasteless for Markey to start campaigning before the seat is even vacant. Once the Sen. Kerry resigns, then the campaign will really begin. I'm confident Markey will win. We still need to work hard (really hard if Brown is running), but confidence can never hurt, it only helps. Overconfidence, on the other hand, is fatal.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:47:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Boston Herald has Lynch's comments (6+ / 0-)

    link.

    "That's false," Lynch told the Herald today about all the conjecture, although he refused to rule out the possibility of an announcement next week. "If we can see a path to victory we'll take that chance."
    ......
    "I realize that time is short, but I still think we have a shot," Lynch said.

    Doesnt really sound like someone who is enthusiastic about running. But we'll see.

  •  Bob Menendez (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    I won't post a link but the Daily Caller (Tucker Carlson's rag) reports the FBI is investigating Menendez over allegations regarding inappropriate behavior in the Dominican Republic.

    I really don't like him.

    •  He's always been some inane target by the RW (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY, askew

      for some unknown reason.  They sued repeatedly in 2009-2010 in hope of initiating a recall election on him (something that is forbidden for federal officials).  I remember a NY Republican on SSP who called him "useless."  He was also investigated for political reasons by US Attorneys (including Christie) in 2006 under orders from Karl Rove in hope of digging up dirt to beat him with.  Menendez isn't a great Senator by any stretch, but he's certainly not some massive hateful crook.  He outperformed Obama in NJ last November, too.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:41:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is Guy Cecil's "No" in response to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    the internal polling speculation or the rallying around Markey bit?

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:46:56 AM PST

  •  Income and education in the new districts. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, MichaelNY

    I was looking at CA-52.  According to the demographic thing, 54.6% of residents over 25 have at least a bachelor's degree, and the MHI is $77,409.

    Let's try to top that.  MD-08 has a MHI of (geez) $90,959, but the education statistic is just 52.8%.  

    VA-08?  59.8% and $91,027.

    VA-11? 53.7% and $100,146.

    CA-18?  57.3% and $97,001.

    How many districts do you think have a majority of residents over 25 with at least a bachelor's degree?  I haven't noticed any others yet.  (For a comparison: Allyson Schwartz's PA-13 is at 32.4%.)  Do you think any top VA-08's 59.8%?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:56:04 AM PST

  •  Some thoughts on today's development (0+ / 0-)

    GA-Sen: hands down bad news.  I was hoping Chambliss would retire in 2020 when we might be competitive in the state presidentially and minority turnout will be at its height.  Him retiring this cycle allows Republicans to run an incumbent in 2020 who will be harder to beat.  Even if they nominate Broun, I don't see any of our top tier candidates running since more likely than not they'll nominate someone like Handel.

    MA-Sen: Ugh, I still think Markey will beat both Lynch and Brown, but Lynch running doesn't help.

    AR-Gov: Thank god.  McDaniel would have been a disaster.  Hopefully this will convince someone like Mike Ross to run and we might have a shot at actually holding this seat.

    NJ-Gov: Well Christie just got reelected since nether Booker or Codey is running.  Oh well, at least we should win it back in 2017, but it would have been nice to nip Christie's presidential bid in the bud.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:02:25 PM PST

  •  #ILSen: Dick Durbin (D) to lead DASC: (6+ / 0-)

    Dick Durbin will chair the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.

    Chicago Sun-Times:

    Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) will chair the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, he announced on Friday.

    Durbin said he learned the news late Thursday. He will be in charge of appropriating funds for the military and intelligence community, for national security requirements and the needs of more than two million active duty and reserve servicemembers.

  •  GA-Sen: List of names mentioned by the Atlanta (5+ / 0-)

    Journal Constitution. On the Democratic side they mention Kasim Reed, Stacey Abrams, U.S. Rep. John Barrow, state Sen. Jason Carter and former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin. They also mention Leah Ward Sears as an out of left field potential who could be a strong candidate.

    http://blogs.ajc.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:17:00 PM PST

  •  For reference, 111th-Congress districts with (0+ / 0-)

    a majority of over-25 residents having a bachelor's degree (as per the American Factfinder's ACS 1-year estimates):

    NY-14    66.0%
    VA-08    61.6%
    CA-30    59.6%
    CA-14    57.9%
    NY-08    56.4%
    MD-08    56.0%
    CA-48    54.3%
    WA-07    52.8%

    GA-06    52.6%
    DC-AL    52.5%
    VA-11    52.5%
    IL-10    52.0%
    CA-08    51.5%
    NC-04    51.3%
    NJ-11    50.0%
    (Bold districts still have the status; italicized districts don't.)  WA-07 still does (54.8%).  The new NC-04 does not (38.7%) presumably thanks to the Republlcan gerrymander.  The new IL-10 does not (41.5%) presumably thanks to the Democratic gerrymander.  NJ-11 still does, though (50.2%).  NY-10, the successor to NY-08, still does (57.2%).  CA-45, the successor to CA-48, still does, albeit barely (50.0%).  The successors to CA-30 and CA-14 are Waxman's and Eshoo's districts mentioned above.  Obviously DC's boundaries haven't changed.  GA-06 has only gotten more educated under the new lines (56.3%).  And NJ-11 hangs on with 50.2%.

    So it seems to me like the extensively-drawn CA-52 is the only "new" district to make the cut so far.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:25:06 PM PST

  •  I think MassInc's last poll in the Warren race (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, KingofSpades, itskevin

    had Brown up by 4.

    In any event, a lot his simple recent name recognition.

  •  GA-Sen/GA-12 Here's how I see it (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Karen Handel seems like the strongest candidate the Republicans have and would be the hardest for us to beat.  Paul Broun, on the other hand, is an absolute disaster - and if he wins the nomination, we need to have a candidate who is in a good position to make the race competitive and win the seat.  With that said, John Barrow absolutely needs to stay in GA-12.  We have a majority in the Senate already and if we want to get closer to a majority in the House we absolutely cannot lose that seat.

  •  VA Electoral College (14+ / 0-)

    TPM reports that McDonnell has made a statement officially opposing the VA EV rigging bill.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:51:17 PM PST

  •  Romney - not going away (10+ / 0-)

    Please stay with us forever: http://www.politico.com/...

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:55:19 PM PST

  •  GA-Sen, Looking into State Sen. Scott Holcomb as (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, psychicpanda, MichaelNY

    a potential candidate and glad to hear that Halter is jumping into the AR-Gov race.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:55:41 PM PST

  •  question about the DFW exurbs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I've noticed that the census definition of the DFW metroplex takes in a lot of areas I thought would be rural like Johnson, Kaufman, Delta, Hunt, Ellis, Parker and Wise counties.
    What I'm wondering is what kind of people live in those areas?

    My guess is that those areas are sort of where people from rural Texas who work in the metroplex move to that don't want to live close to the city. In that sense they want to retain some type of rural identity and have a big backyard where they can raise chickens or any type of livestock or plant. I think there's also some type of rugged individualism ethos too of wanting to build/own their own home and fend for themselves.

    It's kind of in a way what Eastern LA County (Bell Gardens in particular) was before WWII.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:14:02 PM PST

    •  Depends on the area (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Johnson, Kaufman, Ellis, and Parker's population bases are thoroughly suburban despite being mostly rural (though the suburban populations vastly outweigh the rural populations).

      Wise's population base is Decatur, which is an exurban community in the Fort Worth orbit. This is more the type you're thinking of, not the other four counties.

      All of the above are basically smaller versions of Collin and Denton counties. Generally suburban, very tied into the central counties, both in politics and economics.

      Delta and Hunt, however, are included because of broader economic ties and less because of work commute, though they still meet the minimum commuter threshold. These are generally rural and very similar culturally to the rest of East Texas (I.E. different than the rest of the metroplex).

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:34:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-GOV: Quinn's comments go too far, but I (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, jncca, MichaelNY

    wonder if voters would feel some discomfort having a father and daughter holding two of the most powerful positions in the state, offices that have to work with one another. Or for that matter, would other Dems in the legislature be okay  with it? Would they worry that Mike Madigan would favor his daughter's legislation, for example? Or that Lisa Madigan might negotiate more with her dad than other legislative leaders?

    I think when there is a personal and professional relationship, there are some legitimate questions there. Especially when we are talking about public office.

    Also, I hope I'm not underestimating Schock, but I think he'd be a good candidate to face for Dems. He is part of a pretty unpopular Congress, which already adds to the uphill climb of winning as Republican in Illinois. Kirk Dillard worries me the most.

  •  Klein and Skelos to headline (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Manhattan GOP fundraiser.

    http://capitaltonightny.ynn.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:31:42 PM PST

  •  IL-2: Robin Kelly goes up with radio ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:37:13 PM PST

  •  Update on DelCo precinct results (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Skaje, redrelic17

    Well, I ended up borrowing my friend's car and I submitted a request form and paid for copies of the DelCo precincts in PA-07 from townships that are split between PA-01 and PA-07. The PA-07 totals can be subtracted from the township or borough wide totals so both districts can be calculated. Once those are sent to me next week (hopefully), I'll scan them and send them along so they can be added to the Presidential results by Congressional district spreadsheet.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:41:23 PM PST

    •  How much did it wind up costing you? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Not the full $111 they quoted us, I hope! Anyhow, thanks for doing this!

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:48:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  $14 (including shipping) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        I wanted to get everything but when I counted up the pages and realized it would cost me $111, I was like "oh hell no." I mean I'm a college kid... I worked all Christmas break long and grossed ~$650 pre-tax and that was a lot more money than I was able to spend first semester. I sure as hell wasn't ready to spend 1/6th of my spending money on precinct results that should by all means be published for free online (shame on any county that can but doesn't release its precinct results).

        I figured all y'all needed would be results from one of the two districts since you could just subtract one district's vote totals from the whole township to get the other district's result in split townships.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:51:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  AK-Sen: According to the (10+ / 0-)

    National Review, Joe Miller is mulling a Senate bid.

    According to several sources, Miller huddled with Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He also stopped by the office of Senator Lisa Murkowski. It was the pair’s first encounter since Murkowski, running as an independent, beat Miller in 2010.
    http://www.nationalreview.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:44:58 PM PST

  •  Brown in MA going for governor.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    I have to wonder why Brown would even want to return to the US Senate.  With his decent polling numbers, he could wait and run for the governorship.  I wouldn't be surprised if this was what he did.  It seems more suitable for him.  He always seemed so awkward in his role as a Senator (never mind that I disagreed with most of his positions anyway.)  

    He would probably get a lot more enjoyment out of being governor of an entire state versus serving in the minority in the US Senate.  

    Given that there are no major Democrats running for governor yet anyway, he could spend the next two years creating the infrastructure to make a go at being governor.

  •  As for why the new CA-52 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jncca

    made the list: Here's a map showing the Census tracts in San Diego County with a majority of over-25 residents having at least a bachelor's degree.  (I used 5-year estimates but whatever.)

    That's, like, practically coterminous with CA-52, isn't it?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:54:40 PM PST

  •  Roy Barnes and Max Cleland (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Has either shown any interest in running for GA-Sen? IIRC polls have shown both beating Tom Price by 6-7 points. Especially if the Republican primary devolves into some ultra-right wing cat fur, this could become a prime pickup opportunity.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:02:13 PM PST

    •  I doubt either is... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      ... Cleland is in his 70s and was pretty burned by his rejection in '02. Don't see him wanting to go through that again, especially since he'd still be the underdog.

      Barnes might be more amenable, although after two failed races ('02 and '10), he may also be reluctant. Still, I agree it'd be worth reaching out to him to gauge his interest. I doubt he intends to run for governor again, so he may have nothing to lose.

  •  WI-Var (0+ / 0-)

    The Republican Party of Wisconsin responds to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin breaking out the 72-county strategy by breaking out their version of the 72-county strategy!

    Both Wisconsin Democrats and Wisconsin Republicans are already laying the groundwork for 2014.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:53:55 PM PST

    •  um, okay.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY, JDJase

      Is it really news that in 2013, parties are preparing for 2014?

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:34:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AR-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Im very very happy McDaniels is out and Halter is in. He gives us a great chance. And he reminded us in 2010 that progressives can win in the South, but most of all populism can win in the South. If he didn't lose by a hair to Lincoln. Lord knows what would had happened. Cause Republicans certainly wanted to face Lincoln and not him.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 02:57:24 PM PST

    •  Republicans wouldn't have cared either way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      They would have defeated either Halter or Lincoln by a good margin.

      IIRC, Grady has said a few times that Halter isn't that great an option for us.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:09:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think I know what would have happened. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY, Skaje, itskevin

      He'd have lost big.  And how did he prove, in 2010, that progressives/populists can win in the South?  He didn't even win the Democratic primary.

      Also--I hate to just nitpick--but Ï don't really know what's "populist" about Bill Halter, at least beyond his primary campaign (and essentially every challenger in a Democratic primary is going to strike "populist/progressive" tones).  

      His Wiki page leads me to this Huffington Post article:

      Halter, after spearheading what has become an intensely popular statewide lottery, is riding a wave of popularity in the state, despite being an outspoken supporter of gay rights. Halter was a fierce opponent of an anti-gay-marriage amendment that passed in a landslide.

      The lottery, though, has been a winning issue for him. "He will never be more popular in Arkansas than he is at this moment," said Brantley. "He's kind of a classic populist, progressive Democrat."

      But his Wiki page also leads me to this February PPP poll, which gives Halter 21/29/50 favorable/unfavorable/unknown numbers at around the same time.

      Lotteries, by the way, are a good example of why I don't like throwing around the word "populist".  Supporting lotteries is populist--it's money for the people!  And opposing lotteries is populist--it's a tax on the poor!

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:13:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  When I meant by progressivism/populism (0+ / 0-)

        can win in the South, I meant that Southern Dems can be challenge from the left.

        And that article is something new about him I didn't know. I still think highly of him.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:23:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  What? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's pro-gay??? I'm for him then by all means, but I'm not sure he can win.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:25:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think the idea was that he (0+ / 0-)

        would have lost by less than Lincoln did, before she went all out against him in the primary.  Once they had that bitter primary I think he'd have lost by a similar margin, but had she simply decided to retire and he had been our replacement nominee, I think he could have kept it to say 15% or at best 12% rather than her 21%.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:45:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree with this assessment (0+ / 0-)

          Given that the poll I linked to above was much before the negative primary in January, whereas the primary was in June. In fact, Halter had not even announced his candidacy at that point (he didn't until March 1). He was going to lose just as badly. Period.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:52:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  you can't be certain of an outcome (0+ / 0-)

            based on the results of one poll.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:58:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  So you're basing your assessment off of (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv

            name recognition?  Halter would have lost by less by not having the "deciding vote on Obamacare" hanging around his neck that Lincoln had.  Their numbers would have been quite different at the end of the campaign though he clearly would have lost.  This is one of those instances where we can't run the controlled experiment we'd like to, but I guarantee you Halter would have done a few points better at the margin.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:58:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  A few points on the margin? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              That's the difference between Lincoln's 21 point loss and an 16-18 point loss. What's the difference, really?

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:02:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  What are we disagreeing on then (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                I said Halter would do a few points better on the margin but still lose big, but that's not the same as them doing exactly the same.  Voters in the state clearly weren't just totally opposed to moderate Democrats as evidenced by our performance for Lt Gov, SoS, Land Commissioner, and AR-01.  What destroyed Lincoln before the primary was her "deciding" vote for Obamacare and her alienation of both swing voters and her base.

                So essentially Halter would have been Generic D while Lincoln was Toxic D, that's what I'm trying to get across.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:14:09 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Lots of politicians claim to be populist (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

        Populist sounds like popular.  What's not to love?  People can't even agree on what it means (The wikipedia article has three dispute tags).  It ends up just getting thrown around now to mean anything that the politician in question thinks is best for the masses.  Conservative, liberal, whatever.

    •  He reminded us of nothing of the kind (0+ / 0-)

      and would have lost big in the 2010 general election.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:14:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  opinion question (0+ / 0-)

    which of the two dem debacles was more preventable (or at least alleviated): 1994 or 2010?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:03:36 PM PST

    •  Neither (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, JBraden, MichaelNY, askew

      Neither of them was avoidable, because backlashes always happen. 94, 06-08, 10. There's always a countervailing election during a Presidency.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:10:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  2006 was probably the most preventable n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        •  2006? (0+ / 0-)

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:17:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  For the Republicans, obviously (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I know you said between 1994 and 2010. wmmiv mentioned that 1994, 2006 and 2010 were all backlashes that couldnt be avoided.

            But to me, 2006, for the Republicans was the most preventable of the three. 2010 was a bad economy. 1994 was the shift from Dems to the GOP that was a long time coming.

            But in 2006, the economy was okay(it was the housing bubble, but we didnt know it at the time), and it seems if Bush had handled things differently with Katrina, Iraq and Social Security Privatization, the GOP could have avoided the huge losses they had.

      •  well, that says nothing about whether they could'v (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        been alleviated, which they probably could've been.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:39:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  1994 (10+ / 0-)

      The 1994 wipeout was entirely self-inflicted, as the economy was fine. 90% of what happened in 2010 was a function of the weak economy: (1) it energized the GOP, demoralized Dems, and caused a lot of low-info swing voters to switch from team blue in 2008 to team red in 2010, and (2) a lot of people were upset about the bailouts and other ordinarily distasteful things the government had to do to prevent another depression. The Dems probably could have saved a few seats by moving faster on health care and not passing cap and trade, but they were screwed from the beginning.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:01:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sarah Palin quits her gig at FOX News! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, MichaelNY

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:14:29 PM PST

  •  WI-LtGov/WI-AD-98 (0+ / 0-)

    Jeanne Tarantino, a former aide to Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and currently a candidate in a multi-way Republican primary field for the open WI-AD-98 state assembly seat, swore in a deposition that she was transferred from her state job because of her age and gender!

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:21:17 PM PST

  •  I hope the DOJ is ready with a lawsuit... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike

    for the first state who tries to change it's EV allotment system - especially one who doesn't have an independent redistricting.  

    Michigan will be stepping into a racial hornets nest as well - and could be a HUGE over reach for Snyder going into his re-election.  I'd be willing to bet Snyder will veto any such bill - using it to try and play his "I'm really not an ideologue" card.

    I want to hear an Governor answer why the RNC is pushing this plan for only 5 states - the five states who voted for Obama who are controlled by GOP right now.  Ask them why it's not mentioned for Texas or Indiana or Georgia or South Carolina etc.  But they'll all probably fall back into the "I'm just worried about my state" cop out.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:24:51 PM PST

  •  GA-SEN: Gingrich thinks Rep Tom Price will run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Kyle Wingfield of the AJC had a list of potential candidates(which I think he was posted in this thread). Wingfield noted that if Price ran for Senate, it's possible Karen Handel would run for Price's 6th district House seat.

    link.

    I could see Price clearing the field, at least of other US reps. But others could definitely get in, including state AG Sam Olens or Lt. Gov Casey Cagle. Nathan Deal will run for re-election so that directs a lot of GOP attention to the Senate race.
     

  •  NY-Redist: Yeah, pretty lame. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Of course, Dems may likely have control after 2020, so even if this proposal passes, they could still gerrymander.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:34:11 PM PST

  •  Pryor's kickoff in March (7+ / 0-)

    will apparently see the return of Dale Bumpers (who is 87).

  •  Dems need more female Govs in '14 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlueWisconsin, DownstateDemocrat

    absolutely ridiculous that we only have one. We did well in the Senate, but we need to do well in the governors department.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:13:35 PM PST

    •  well I don't disagree with that on its face, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      it sounds like a good goal.  But where can we do it?  Florida with maybe Sink, but I don't know if she's the best candidate.  Michigan with Gretchen Whitmer?  Maybe.  I don't know if she's the strongest candidate there either.  Where else are there vulnerable Republicans or retiring Dems where we'd have a good candidate?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:18:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  candidates I would like to see women & minorities (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        Florida: I think highly of former Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, I don't think Sink going to run again after her husbands death last month. I like Iorio alot

        Michigan: I think Whitmer will be jus as strong as Petrs, but Peters is a tad better than her, and plus congreesman is a better launching pad than state senator. Plus Levins hasn't said what he will do.

        Ohio: There been rumblings about Betty Sutton running, but it looks like Kasich so far has gotten his head above water, but he can still be vulnerable.

        Maryland: I hope O'Malley's LT becomes the next Gov, which I think he will. He'll be the first Black Governor of Maryland.

        Illinois: I hope Madigan primaries Quinn, it's nothing personal against him, but he just sucks, and we shouldn't lose a safe Governor seat.

        Rhode Island: If Chafee doesn't become a Dem, then Romano should run.

        Maine: Pingree hands down

        Arizona: Carmona or Rotellini would be good choices

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:32:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  thanks, for some reason despite the conversation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          upthread I forgot about Madigan.

          I don't think Pingree could beat Cutler and LePage at the same time, though.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:35:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  RI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Romano=(Gina) Raimondo? I'm not sure I see her running against Chafee, but we'll see.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:11:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Allyson Schwarz in Pennsylvania? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          From what I've heard, it seems unlikely she will run, but it is still described as a possibility.

          •  i don't know (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden

            look I dont want to sound like Im a ageist, if that's even a word, but she'll probably jus stay in Washington even if she takes on Pat Toomey in 2016 she'll be 68. You want some youngblood up in there. If she was like 5-10 years younger than I wouldnt be raising this. The only women right now who has a bright future is Kane who's only been AG a little over week. So she has plenty of time.

            We have good candidates in PA to take on Corbett, they happened to be white men, but still good candidates in Sestak and McCord.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

            by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:28:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  We also need (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Chachy

      More minority Governors, to blunt the GOPs symbolic attack line that they have more.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:22:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not disagreeing with our need for more (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        but I don't think anyone is fooled by the GOP's claim to having "more".  I use it in quotes because it's such a laughable thing to trumpet, just focusing on their governors.  Just take a look at Congress, or any state legislature in America.  Take a look at mayors and city councilors, take a look at the president.

        The fact that they "beat" us in one single category, while still trailing us so drastically among all politicians, is so trivial that I can't believe it even gets play in national media.  It's like a football team getting destroyed by 50 points in a game yet trumpeting the fact that they only suffered one interception, while the winning team suffered two, and claiming to have thus played the better game.

        Like I said, nobody is fooled.  This certainly hasn't corresponded with minorities shifting to the GOP (despite the talking heads' constant, fevered predictions that this is the year minorities start voting Republican).

  •  Halter = big problems within Arkansas state party. (0+ / 0-)

    He has done nothing to mend fences after his bitter loss to Blanche Lincoln in the 2010 primary & runoff.  Many of his supporters did not support Lincoln in the general election, which yielded US Senator John Boozman......a #78 most liberal, #22 most conservative ranking in the National Journal.   Some of Halter's supporters abandoned the Party after the 2010 primary election.  Some of his supporters remained on county committees, with the purpose of sabotaging Lincoln's campaign, then fell out after the general election. In the process, every statewide & federal Dem candidate's campaign suffered, with the exception of the fantastically popular Gov. Mike Beebe.   Halter also has ego, personality, arrogance problems in the state party, to the extent that many of Arkansas' state committee members avoid him at all costs.  He is not someone who inspires loyalty or confidence among the most dedicated Arkansas Democrats.  

    Additionally, if Halter again becomes the candidate financed by Big Labor, Asa Hutchinson (the probable republican nominee) will be able to bring in as many boatloads of gold bullion from the NRA, Americans for Prosperity, & The Club for Growth has he calls for.  Big Labor endorsement in Arkansas is inconsequential, unless it is accompanied by big bucks.  But the bucks will be too few when pitted against Asa's sources.  

    The only time big outside Democratic money came into Arkansas, it was used against another Democrat.  We now have 4 ridiculously conservative congressmen in Arkansas.....the entire Arkansas congressional delegation as well as a US Senator who is a lap dog for the republican party.   It's difficult for active D's to remove Bill Halter from this equation.  

    •  What's your data? (0+ / 0-)
      Many of his supporters did not support Lincoln in the general election, which yielded US Senator John Boozman
      I wonder about the first part of this, and I think the second part is almost definitely false, as Boozman was going to win heavily, no matter what.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:13:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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