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Pres-by-CD: This is a list of...

...all the states with Pres-by-CD updates. We'll mark four states as completed today (in additional to updates on 8 districts previously completed), bringing our count to 325, or 75% of the way there. First, the new states:

New Mexico (statewide)

Pennsylvania (PA-04, PA-08, PA-14, PA-16, PA-18)

New Mexico's 2-1 Dem split seems to be solidifying, as even the "swing" NM-01 went for the President by more than 15 points (and for incoming Dem Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham by substantially more than that). Pennsylvania is yet another Republican gerrymander (that state Democrats stupidly signed on to), which is starting to show through. The Pittsburgh-based PA-14 gave Obama 68 percent, while the remaining districts all went for Romney. PA-08 gets the distinction of closest district so far, with Romney having eked out a 255-vote edge over Obama here.

Virginia (statewide)

Washington (statewide)

Next, we also confirmed the state-provided CD calculations in Virginia, where the results were marked by the State Board of Elections as "official" despite one precinct in Fairfax County supposedly not having reported yet. Fortunately, the Fairfax County Office of Elections also provides precinct-level data, allowing us to confirm the correctness of the SBE's data.

Similarly, in Washington, we replicated results substantially similar to those offered by the Secretary of State. (The difference is attributable to precincts with low voter counts, for which results are not reported individually so as to protect voter privacy. The SoS obviously has access to that information, which we do not; therefore, we'll go with the SoS's numbers, even though they aren't meaningfully different from those calculated using public information.) Both Virginia and Washington's numbers have had their preliminary designations removed.

Additionally, we calculated for fun the results from the old incarnation of WA-01, which held a special election to replace Dem Gov.-elect Jay Inslee; the difference in Dem Rep.-elect Suzan DelBene's performance between the special election (in old WA-01) and the general election (in new WA-01) very much reflects the difference in the presidential results as well (Obama +25 in old WA-01 vs. Obama +11 in new WA-01).

Finally, some updates to previously completed districts.

California (CA-01, CA-02, CA-04, CA-05)

Florida (FL-09, FL-10, FL-15, FL-17)

In California, we noted a few days ago that we would update our data once results were certified by the Secretary of State, which did so on Friday. There were a battery of slight changes (did you know write-in votes for Barack Obama in Monterey County are treated the same as regular votes for Obama? Well, now you do!), as well as two meaningful ones affecting four districts.

In Placer County, the results we'd used were (unknowingly) not final. They've been recalculated using final precinct results. They moved the needle slightly in CA-01 and CA-04, but both remain districts that went solidly for Romney. In Sonoma County, the results we'd erroneously used were vote-by-mail (VBM) only. Even though VBMs represent a solid majority of votes cast in California now, the inclusion of Election Day votes in the (staunchly liberal) county were enough to nudge CA-02 and CA-05 more into Democratic territory. Our totals now match those provided by the SoS, and when the Supplemental Statement of the Vote is released next April, we expect our results by CD will match the official ones exactly.

In Florida, we received updates from Polk County that allocated early votes and regular absentees (as distinguished from overseas/UOCAVA absentees) to their respective precincts, meaning we no longer have to estimate the distribution of more than 120,000 votes. While our early vote allocation formulas are decent, they're far from perfect; they misallocated about 9,000 votes (out of the 120,000). Therefore, we're making the following adjustments:

District Obama Romney Total Obama% Romney%
FL-09 +1,420 +1,771 +3,247 -0.22% +0.21%
FL-10 +597 +281 +901 +0.06% -0.06%
FL-15 -1,602 -2,399 -4,083 +0.08% -0.07%
FL-17 -415 +347 -65 -0.13% +0.13%
There are still about 119,000 unallocated early/absentee votes from Seminole County; should we get better information, we'll update that as well (potentially affecting FL-05 and FL-07).

9:36 AM PT: SC-Sen-B: It's a done deal: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is naming Rep. Tim Scott to fill the seat of Sen. Jim DeMint, who earlier announced that he'd resign to take the helm of the Heritage Foundation in January. Scott was first elected to Congress in 2010, filling ex-Rep. Henry Brown's open seat, and just handily won re-election to a second term. From the moment of DeMint's announcement, Scott's name made the top of almost every list, so this move comes as little surprise.

And though DeMint never confirmed it, Scott was reportedly his first choice as well, and he'll also become the only African American in the Senate. While Scott hasn't been the iconoclast DeMint has (few could be), he's already put together a reliably conservative profile and should fit right in with the rest of the GOP caucus in upper chamber. For instance, he once said that if Barack Obama were to find a way to pay our nation's creditors without Congress lifting the debt ceiling, it would constitute an "impeachable offense." He's also extremely anti-union, sponsoring legislation to make families ineligible for food stamps if one member went on strike.

Because DeMint was just re-elected in 2010, Scott's appointment will only run through 2014, at which time he'd have to run again—for just the final two years of DeMint's term. Scott wouldn't have a chance to seek a full term until 2016, which means two elections in back-to-back cycles if he plans to stay in the Senate.

Before he even gets that far, though, Scott may have to contend with a Republican primary. Lots of eager up-and-comers who wanted this appointment for themselves may decide that Scott's not entitled to the seat and might try to challenge him. That may or may not be so easy, though, depending on how extensively the establishment rallies around Scott, and whether he can avoid screwing up once he's elevated to a much more prominent role. (At least one snubbed colleague of Scott's, however, has said he won't run in such a primary: Rep. Mick Mulvaney.)

Haley's decision will also kick off a special election in Scott's 1st Congressional District, a very conservative seat along the South Carolina coast that voted for Mitt Romney by a 58-40 margin last month. Consequently, most of the action to replace Scott will happen on the GOP side, and the Charleston Post and Courier lays out a long list of possible contenders. For Democrats, 2008 nominee Linda Ketner (who lost by only two points) might be our best hope for making this one competitive. The timing of the special hinges largely on when Scott resigns, but if things go as planned, a May election looks likely.

10:21 AM PT: As we get down to the final districts for our presidential results by congressional district project, we could really use your help in tracking down certified, precinct-level election results for the counties below. If you can assist us—by scouring websites, sending emails, or making phone calls—we'd be very grateful. If you obtain any results, please email davidnir [at] dailykos [dot] com and jeffmd [at] dailykos [dot] com. Thank you!

10:35 AM PT: Special Elections: The last two special elections of 2012 are coming up on Tuesday. Johnny Longtorso tells you what you need to know:

Kentucky SD-16: This is the seat vacated by Dem Gov. Steve Beshear's nemesis David Williams, located along the Tennessee border. The candidates are Democrat Bill Conn, a teacher, and Republican Sara Beth Gregory, a State Representative who was just elected to her second term.

Virginia HD-89: This is the seat vacated by now-state Sen. Kenny Alexander, a majority-black district in Norfolk. The candidates are Democrat Daun Hester, a former member of the Norfolk City Council, and an independent, James St. John, a Some Dude.

10:48 AM PT: IL-02: This is unexpected: On Saturday, Cook County Democratic officials were expected to formally endorse a candidate in the Jesse Jackson, Jr. special election, and anyone who was betting was putting down money on state Sen. Donne Trotter. But the meeting wound up producing no endorsement at all, very possibly because of Trotter's recent arrest for attempting to carry a firearm and bullets through airport security. While it's an open question how much an official seal of approval would have mattered in the primary, the establishment's failure to get behind Trotter in this multi-candidate race probably indicates it's a bit more wide open than some insiders imagined it would be.

11:10 AM PT: NY-St. Sen: This is very unexpected: After a full count of all ballots in the super-close state Senate race between Republican George Amedore and Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk, it looks like Amedore will be certified as the winner with a 39-vote lead. Earlier in the process, Amedore's attorneys had challenged far more ballots than Tkaczyk's, making her look like the likely victor. But in the end, it seems Amedore may have eked it out. However, it's not over yet: A Tkaczyk spokesman says that there are "still hundreds of outstanding objections that have to be ruled on by the Appellate Court."

If Amedore does hang on, though, then that raises a huge question: What will become of Republican leader Dean Skelos's power-sharing deal with the five renegade Democrats of the so-called IDC? With Amedore, that gives the GOP 31 seats outright; add in turncoat Democrat Simcha Felder (a conservative who is not part of the IDC) and Skelos has 32 senators in his camp—enough for control of the chamber without the IDC. After all that bullshit about bipartisanship that Skelos and the IDC have been peddling, is Skelos prepared to abandon the deal and punk Jeff Klein, the leader of the IDC junta? We'll just have to see.

11:21 AM PT: OH-Gov: While some sketchy recent reports suggested that Rep. Tim Ryan would not, in the end, make a bid for governor in 2014, in a new interview he says he's still weighing his options and will decide "'very early next year.'' Ryan added that he hadn't spoken with ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (whom Ryan calls a mentor) recently; Strickland, like Ryan, is also weighing a run, and if he gets in, he'd likely clear the Democratic field. Ryan may have to make up his mind without the benefit of an answer from Strickland, though.

12:15 PM PT: HI-Sen: Democrat Dan Inouye, Hawaii's senior senator, has been hospitalized at Walter Reed since Dec. 9 with "respiratory complications," has reportedly "worsened significantly," according to Politico. The papers adds that "people close to the senator," who is 88 years old, "were less upbeat than a week ago when news of his hospitalization first broke." Needless to say, we wish Inouye the best.

12:23 PM PT: TN-Gov: When state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh first started mooting a challenge to GOP Gov. Bill Haslam last week, I opined that I was "not sure how he'd have a path to victory" and called Haslam "incredibly tough to beat." Well, it looks like someone agrees with me: Craig Fitzhugh. In a new interview, Fitzhugh was very candidate about Haslam's strengths and his own reasons for running:

House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh says he may become a candidate for governor in 2014, but not because he thinks a Democrat can beat Republican incumbent Gov. Bill Haslam.

"I don't think Gov. Haslam is going to lose any sleep over me," Fitzhugh said in an interview. "Our current governor is a good man with deep pockets and a 70 percent approval rating." [...]

If he runs, Fitzhugh said, "it would be an issues deal" with the idea in mind of having a statewide candidate on the ballot without big negatives to drag down Democrats seeking other offices, such as state legislator.

Well, score one for rare honesty in the political arena. It sounds like Fitzhugh is mindful of the debacle Tennessee Democrats experienced this year, when their Senate candidate turned out to be a right-wing lunatic who was formally disavowed by the party, and wants to at least offer Dems a legitimate option in the 2014 gubernatorial contest. Fitzhugh says he plans to delay a decision for as long as possible—perhaps he's hopeful someone else will volunteer themselves as a sacrificial lamb—adding "the shorter (a campaign) the better." Ordinarily, you want to get into a race as early as possible, but in an unusual situation like this, Fitzhugh's position makes sense.

1:12 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Looks like GOP Gov. Chris Christie might score a pretty big get: Various reports say that the 20,000-strong Laborers union (which mostly represents construction workers) will back Christie for re-election, at the behest of labor leader Ray Pocino. This is disappointing, as organized labor seems more unified against Christie than it was in 2009—and with good reason. Christie's engaged in some serious anti-union rhetoric, including this notable passage during his RNC keynote address earlier this year:

They believe in pitting unions against teachers, educators against parents, and lobbyists against children.

They believe in teachers' unions.

We believe in teachers.

Indeed, he's even called the New Jersey Education Association  a "political thuggery operation." But it's not just words, it's deeds as well: Christie's also cut union pensions and healthcare benefits, so there's ample reason for labor to unite against him. Hopefully other unions will hold the line.

1:33 PM PT: And for what it's worth, Strickland says he'll finalize his plans in January.

1:55 PM PT: SC-01: With Rep. Tim Scott set to succeed Jim DeMint in the Senate (See above), the Great Mentioner is roaring into action with a boatload of possible names who might run in the special election on the GOP side. The Fix offers up three state senators: Larry Grooms (an unsuccessful 2010 gubernatorial candidate); Tom Davis (who's been mulling a run against Sen. Lindsey Graham); and Paul Thurmond (son of Strom and a 2010 candidate for SC-01 who got pounded by Scott in a runoff). Others include state House Majority Whip Jimmy Merrill; state Reps. Peter McCoy, Chip Limehouse, and Chip Campsen; and former South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford.

The Charleston-based Post and Courier largely concurs with this list, adding a couple more: Charleston County Councilman Elliott Summey and former Charleston County School Board member Larry Kobrovsky. The general election will likely be held in May, and the all-important primary in March.

2:00 PM PT (David Jarman): Senate: If you think that Barack Obama has been unusually willing to go the Senate well to fish out Cabinet members, you'd be absolutely right... especially by historical standards. Prior to Obama (who's doing it for the third time), the last time it happened was the pick of Lloyd Bentsen at Treasury by Bill Clinton (which led to the election of GOPer Kay Bailey Hutchison at the special election), and before that, you have to go back to Ed Muskie getting picked SoS by Jimmy Carter.

2:36 PM PT: Electoral College: Reid Wilson at the National Journal has an extended look at various GOP schemes to rig the electoral college; even though a prominent attempt died on the vine in Pennsylvania last year, Republicans in Washington are coordinating efforts in several blue-leaning states to forge ahead once again. As we've written before, these plans typically revolve around splitting a state's electoral votes by congressional district, which of course is wonderful if you're the GOP and you've drawn the state's map. For instance, even though Obama won Michigan handily, Republican control over the mapmaking process meant Romney prevailed in nine of the state's 14 districts.

Along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan make the most tempting targets because they're all blue states which (temporarily, we can pray) are completely controlled by Republicans, thanks to the 2010 wipeout. Virginia's also a possibility, but it remains in play for the GOP on the statewide level, so Republicans might continue to prefer winner-take-all there. (After that, you're talking about Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina—states the GOP almost certainly doesn't want to carve up.)

But it's far from automatic. BeloitDem points out that Republican margins in the state legislatures in MI, PA, and WI are fairly tight and it wouldn't take many defections to derail this scheme. (In Virginia, it would take just one: Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who casts tiebreaking votes in the evenly-divided state Senate. And he's pretty incensed at the establishment these days.)

The reason this very same scheme ran aground in the Keystone State is instructive, too: Republican members of Congress were extremely wary of turning their individual turfs into national battlegrounds every time a presidential election rolled around. GOP leaders in Pennsylvania are therefore pushing an amended plan now, one that would award electoral votes based on the total popular vote share in the state. That, too, would damage Democratic chances at the White House in the future because of course similar changes won't be made in large red states like Texas.

The modified Pennsylvania approach worries me the most, though, since it'd probably be the easiest to pass. Democrats therefore need to keep pressure on wobbly Republican lawmakers in each of these states—and to make as big a stink as possible about how shameful these shenanigans are. I'll bet newspaper editorial boards won't like these hijinks one bit, and I think ordinary voters can be convinced that the GOP is playing political games with their right to vote. What's more, changing the system will also jeopardize the swing state status of each of these states. I don't care for the electoral college one bit, but if appealing to any sense of "swing state pride" helps scuttle these efforts, I'm all for it.

2:50 PM PT: Sad news: Sen. Dan Inouye has passed away at the age of 88.

2:59 PM PT: The Honolulu Star-Advertiser has a worthwhile obituary describing Inouye's remarkable life and long career.

3:45 PM PT: IL-18, NY-21: The Office of Congressional Ethics has recommended that the House Ethics Committee open investigations into ethical matters concerning two members of congress: Republican Rep. Aaron Schock of Illinois and Democratic Rep. Bill Owens of New York. If you're a regular reader of the Daily Kos Elections Digest, then you might recall both of these stories, which we've written about before. In Schock's case, he solicited a $25,000 donation from Eric Cantor to the now-defunct Campaign for Primary Accountability, which was helping another Illinois congressman, Adam Kinzinger, in his (ultimately successful) member-vs.-member battle against Rep. Don Manzullo. That sum was five times the amount lawmakers are allowed to ask for on behalf of super PACs.

As for Owens, he's being looked at for improperly accepting a lobbyist-funded trip to Taiwan—something he immediately reimbursed his sponsor for (to the tune of $22,000) right after ProPublica first published the details of the junket. (Owens' Republican opponent, Matt Doheny, also ran ads on the issue.) The Ethics Committee must decide by Jan. 28 whether it will launch full probes into either of these matters.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The DSCC Is Planning a Massive Assault in 2014 (4+ / 0-)

    At least that's what I can infer from the absurd number of calls I've gotten in the last week or two. In addition to the Verizon Fios people, who can't seem to get it through their heads that I have never scheduled an appointment because I don't have Fios, I must get at least two or three calls from the DSCC a day. I gave a little bit of money last time but, as time went on, decided to avoid picking up my phone because I knew I wouldn't be able to say no. I figured it would stop after the election, but it seems to have somehow gotten worse.

    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

    by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:55:02 AM PST

  •  PVIs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A

    https://docs.google.com/...

    I've updated my spreadsheet. I find the results for NM most interesting. I wonder if Pearce will be defeat-able by the end of the decade with Hispanic growth in Las Cruces and the rest of the district shrinking.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:07:26 AM PST

    •  We know it is winnable as an open seat, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, JBraden

      so I'd have to think, with positive demographic trends, that we would have a shot.  

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:16:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama's numbers... (3+ / 0-)

      In 2012 were actually a bit worse than his national slide in New Mexico, which was disappointing.  

      Really, the district has two different regions.  Southeastern New Mexico is almost as conservative as Texas, although there are pockets of Democratic voters in the major cities.  

      In contrast, except for a few very sparsely populated counties (Luna, Sierra, Catron) all of Southwestern New Mexico is at least mildly Democratic leaning.  This isn't just due to Dona Ana.  Silver City is pretty strongly Democratic due to Western new Mexico University, and many of the other counties have large politically active Latino communities.

      In general though, my understanding is the old-line Latino communities in Southern New Mexico have a more Republican-leaning history than Northern New Mexico (meaning they are historically swingy voters, like Tejanos in rural West Texas.  Perhaps a local could elaborate.  

      •  Sorry, I mean... (0+ / 0-)

        In NM-02 in particular.  

      •  ... (8+ / 0-)
        Perhaps a local could elaborate.

        I'm from Ruidoso. I grew up there. I lived there for many years. Many of my family are there. Check my signature. :)

        Much of what you've written is correct, although I'd make a few adjustments:

        The Southeast isn't as Republican as you've said. Neighboring counties in Texas range from anywhere between 75-25 Republican to 95-5 Republican. This is in contradistinction to the Southeast counties in New Mexico which range from the 60-40 Republican to 70-30 Republican, but no higher.

        I'd also not go as far as you did with regard to Tejanos. There are no old-line Latinos in southern New Mexico. All of those communities are in the north, and have long since transitioned to supporting Democrats. In the south, almost every Hispanic is an immigrant themselves or the child of an immigrant. This creates the other major difference between these counties and Texas's neighboring areas: most of these counties' cities have areas that vote for Democrats, whereas the cities in Texas's counties in the panhandle and on the estacado do except for the bigger ones do not. And because the cities are almost all of the vote in these counties, it makes a tangible difference.

        You've basically nailed the Southwest, though, except for Luna (Deming) which is Democratic leaning. And I wouldn't go as far as you did in saying that Sierra is actually red. It really isn't, it's just moderately so (55-45 to 60-40 depending on the election).

        Also, you've got the Mescalero Apache just south of Ruidoso which is overwhelmingly Democratic (though turnout there sucks). And Cibola county is also overwhelmingly Democratic because it is heavily Native. Valencia, which is partly in the district, is also Democratic.

        My point was not that Las Cruces (Dona Ana) was the only Democratic area, my point was that Las Cruces is growing whereas all the red parts of the district are stagnating, shrinking, and/or turning blue (Ruidoso is alot more blue than it was a decade ago and even more so that two decades ago).

        There's also the point that Las Cruces already comprises slightly more 1/3 of the district, and will likely be up to 2/5 or maybe even 1/2 of the district by the time 2020 rolls around because of population growth disparities between it and the rest of the district.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:38:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  and I assume that part of this change (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          is from the immigrants assimilating or younger generations assimilating.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:58:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Could you clarify this: (0+ / 0-)
          This creates the other major difference between these counties and Texas's neighboring areas: most of these counties' cities have areas that vote for Democrats, whereas the cities in Texas's counties in the panhandle and on the estacado do except for the bigger ones do not.
          Are you saying that the heavily hispanic areas of Midland, Odessa, Lubbock and Amarillo support republicans?
          •  No (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Chachy

            I expressly excluded those when I said, inartfully I guess, "except for the bigger ones". I'm talking about places like Plainview, Levelland, Big Spring, Sweetwater, Childress, etc. Those are the comparable towns in size. The ones that you listed (and San Angelo) are much bigger.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:14:25 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Republican plans to change EV allocation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, SaoMagnifico

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    While such is certainly frightening, I think it posts a great potential opportunity in state legislature level and in the US House. If this passes, a lot of marginal seats will see a lot of democratic money going into them. If this goes forwards and we play it the right way, I think we could use this to our favor. I just worry that we won't.

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:08:25 AM PST

    •  Scary (6+ / 0-)

      But I'm not sure how much of a position they're in to make credible threat of doing this.
      I mean, the states where they have nominal complete control where this might help are:
      WI
      MI
      PA
      VA
      OH
      FL
      NC

      The first 3 are the only states where it's unambiguously helpful to them, although it might be helpful in VA. Below that, they're more or less stepping on states that are required for their path to victory. However, consider:
      -In WI, all we need to stop them is for Schultz and one other person, like Ellis or Kedzie to say no.
      -In Michigan, they passed the RTW stuff in lame duck because they're down to a much smaller state house majority after the election and don't have the votes to pass it next session.
      -In Pennsylvania, a similar attempt failed last year, although the congressional delegation might hate this plan a bit less. Still, Republicans don't have massive amounts of room for defection on this one.
      -In Virginia, they're literally depending on Bill Bolling's tiebreaker, and considering how he currently feels about the Republican establishment...

      Basically, they're gonna have a harder time than you might think passing this where it would help them.

      •  This is the sort of thing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, LordMike

        That tweaks some GOPers though.  While they like totalitarianism sometimes, some GOPers aren't power-hungry lunatics.  And as you state, not many sane GOPers are needed to de-rail this in any given state.

        I honestly don't see it passing in any state.  if it did pass anywhere, I'd want it to be Florida.  I'm tired of Florida as a battlegorund state and having to hear that Social Security and Medicare are the most important issues every cycle.  Plus their baffling ability to get the voting process working sensibly.  

        Go away FL, let's make your state worth the equivalent of 7 EV's and let's see what happens :-)

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:33:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  How can the GOP sell it as "fairness" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, LordMike

        When they also have complete control in Texas and are not pushing this "fairness" there.  I mean they're just targeting federally blue states that have GOP control when they have control in federally red states and have no push in these states.  

        That is ridiculously obvious - though the GOP don't care how obvious they are in their corrupt power grabs anymore and the MSM will look the other way.  

        The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:50:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Manchin! (18+ / 0-)

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    If anyone requires proof that Manchin is not like the republicans, here it is. I think has the exact profile needed to help push an assault rifle bill through.

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:13:10 AM PST

    •  magazine capacity (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, gabjoh

      Of anything happens legislarively, it'll just be to reintroduce the ban on manufacturing of large capacity magazines. That'll be as far as I can see it going.

    •  Manchin is also ambitious. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      He's someone I always thought would tack left once he established his hold on his seat in order to run for President.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:55:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's kinda old for that though. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, jncca, skibum59

        He's the same age as Hillary (actually a few months older if you want to split hairs).

      •  Don't see how he'd build a coalition (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, JBraden

        He ducked on DADT repeal and he hates cap-and-trade. Don't think he'd be a good cultural fit to get in with Silicon Valley or Hollywood. In other words, I don't see how he could get the kind of money or blocs of support to make a real go of it.

        He hasn't been nearly as much of an outspoken jackass as Lieberman or Nelson, though, so being part of the Senate leadership might not be out of the question if he handles his positions well going forward.

        •  The Bill Clinton model. (0+ / 0-)

          You run on "electability" while making sure you are correct on the litmus test issues.  Democrats are far more into that than Republicans are.  Course our idea of electability is not always sound.  IE in 2004 we decided that since John Kerry was a war hero he'd be immune to Republican attacks on foreign policy.  And therefore was the best candidate despite being a stiff uncharismatic northeast liberal.

          If you ever see him start "evolving" on say abortion and gay rights.  You know he's running for something.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:24:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Manchin (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      I've been saying for awhile now (effectively since I joined Daily Kos last December; here, here, and here are good examples) that I've expected Manchin to become a more mainstream Democrat once he was elected to a full, six-year term. Republicans have missed their last realistic chance to get Manchin out of that seat, and now that he's become entrenched, he can stake out more mainstream policy proposals. I was certainly surprised to see Manchin on Morning Joe this morning talking about his support for more gun control, but I can't say it was completely unexpected.

      Nonetheless, I still think this is big news. We'll need people like Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, and Brian Schweitzer to assist us with their street cred (country cred?) on gun policy.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:33:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  According to Dave Wasserman, PA-08... (0+ / 0-)

    is the only district he can think of which (within its current boundaries) went for Kerry in 2004 and Romney in 2012. He suggested IL-12 as the only other possibility, but someone pointed out it went narrowly for Obama this year.)  http://twitter.com/...

    Can anyone think of other Kerry/Romney districts (again, using 2012 boundaries)?

  •  Thank you David Nir. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, David Nir, Christopher Walker

    I receive your analysis everyday in my e-mail. I've never thanked you before for your interesting, to the point analysis.
    I've never commented on your diary here.
    I should have done so because there's not enough focus by anyone - anyone, on my Congressman John Culberson.

    He's a nebish really and no one pays attention to him. He "serves" in Texas 7th Congressional District
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...
    - once held by George H W Bush. (I think he offices in Houston where GHWB has his office, in the wealthy Memorial area of town.)  
    He is a member of ALEC. He's a sock puppet for the Republican doctrine.
    He does what he's told. He has no original ideas. Just a foot soldier in selling the Iraq War, preaching "conservatism" while voting for guns and butter during George W Bush's term, obstructing public rail for commuters in Houston.
     In 2008 a Democrat had our best showing against him, losing by about 14 points. Michael Skelly
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...
    had helped bring Horizon Wind Energy from a 2 person operation to a multibillion dollar operation. Skelly would have been a great replacement for Culberson. Intelligent, committed to progressive values. At a campaign gathering, he told me that he knew a great deal about how the fossil fuel industry works because they were the competition.
    Someone on DK told me that Culberson keeps winning because his base in Houston are people who vote on one issue - keeping their taxes low.
    As I've said here before, during his town hall meeting selling the Iraq war, I stood up to warn against the war - setting a trap for the idiot Culberson. His schtick was "George W Bush knows more about WMD than he can share with the public". I got called on to ask a question and asked Culberson whether CIA Director Tenet knew what GWB knew regarding WMD. He said "of course" and I announced that George Tenet during recent publicly viewed congressional testimony had said that "he didn't know whether Saddam Hussein had WMD, but that if he did, he was well-contained and would only use any WMD that he might have if we invaded and then he'd use them against our soldiers". Culberson flew into a rage and yelled at me to never make a statement again, I could just ask a question, while one of his goons stood over me counting down seconds.
    I have never spoken to anyone in Houston who says they like Culberson. Everyone thinks he's an idiot and should not be in the U.S. Congress.
    He needs more national scrutiny, IMO.
    As I reread this comment before posting it, I find that I may be guilty of highjacking your terrific diary. I'm making a cry for help. No one seems capable of winning Texas Congressional District 7 from Culberson who is a barnacle on the side of the House. I apologize for using your terrific diary.
    All I can say is
    heeeeeeeeeeeelp.

    Finally people have gotten sick and tired of being had and taken for idiots. Mikhail Gorbachev

    by eve on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:35:13 AM PST

  •  SC: Haley picks Scott for senate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, James Allen, Taget

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:44:27 AM PST

    •  Laying (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy

      aside the partisan rhetoric, it's amazing how much South Carolina has advanced from the days of Strom Thurmond.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:51:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It doesn't matter that Scott is black (10+ / 0-)

        Because when he runs for a full term in 2014, he's not going to get more than 10% of the black vote. And that's what really matters when it comes to race and politics. Republicans are going to pretend that this is a feather in their cap, but it won't mean anything to the overall ugliness of their policies towards minorities.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:06:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are you sure about that? (0+ / 0-)

          Didn't Steele get about 25% of the black vote in Maryland?

          •  Steele came across... (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Taget, askew, KingofSpades, gabjoh, JBraden, jncca

            As a moderate to some degree.  For example, he's said somewhat supportive things about gun control and affirmative action.  Thus he made a real effort to reach out to black voters in a way Scott has not.

            •  Plus (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              Ehrlich got 15%, so the baseline was probably a little different.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:03:47 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wasn't there also a lot of (0+ / 0-)

                outreach by Steele, usually necessary in a situation like that, plus some thinking amongst Prince George Democrats that the party had been taking them for granted?

                "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

                by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:59:18 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  What is Steele's relationship with the RNC now?nt (0+ / 0-)
              •  Laughing stock (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, askew

                I exaggerate a bit, but he's probably not regarded as an influential member, especially as nowadays he seems as likely to criticize as support it.

                He speaks, still, of the need to attract more minorities, but I doubt most of the Republican powers that be really take him seriously; it seems that the they'd rather hype up the occasional Tim Scott and pretend they're making big changes in attitude.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:17:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Taking a job at MSNBC (0+ / 0-)

                  didn't help his cred.

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:49:06 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Quite frankly, I think that is the only job he'd (0+ / 0-)

                    get. He's too moderate for a Fox News spot and the GOP ran him out of the RNC chair job, even though he was much more successful than the current chair.

                    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                    by askew on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:26:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  That's a less polarized state (4+ / 0-)

            In South Carolina, votes are fairly polarized along racial lines. Plus, Steele made the effort and was running in a blue state where that sort of crossover appeal is t necessary, Scott doesn't need black votes in South Carolina and likely won't make an effort.

            26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

            by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:02:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It's possible, but very uncertain because... (10+ / 0-)

            ...exit polls aren't always reliable.

            Steele, for his part, was very dodgy in his politics.  He knew he was running in a liberal state, he ran away hard from any notion that he was conservative.  Then he had a few clever ads, while Cardin by accounts of the time ran a subpar campaign.  So all that conspired to let Steele perhaps (i.e., if the exit polling was right and it isn't always) do better with black voters than normal.

            Compare to PA-Gov and OH-Gov that same year, when Republicans in both states nominated black candidates.  The exit polls said Swann lost PA-Gov 87-13 with black voters which is about normal for a white Republican (up to 15% for a Republican isn't abnormal with black voters).  But Blackwell supposedly got 20%; Strickland crushed him with white voters 58-40 which is rare for a Democrat in Ohio.

            Tim Scott, in contrast to Steele, is a teabagging lunatic, really to the right of Swann and Blackwell.  I think HoosierD42 probably is right, he'll lose 90% of black voters, given his hard-right politics and open hostility to Obama who is wildly popular with black voters everywhere.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:15:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Steele ran as a "moderate" (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, gabjoh, sacman701

            and he actively tried to win over black voters - something which was necessary if he wanted to win in a deep blue state like Maryland during a wave year like 2006. Plus, there may have been some unhappiness with Cardin who beat Kweisi Mfume to win the nomination. Cardin was a really boring candidate and he was favored by the establishment only because he was seen as being more electable than Mfume.

            Tim Scott doesn't need in any black voters to win. He has never run as the "black candidate" and he has never tried to appeal to South Carolina's black population. Nor has he tried to act as the GOP's black surrogate.

          •  Not quite (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Chachy

            It was closer to about 18-20%.  Exit poll numbers had it a bit higher, but he almost never exceeded 20% in heavily black precincts, even in mid-Prince George's County, where he lives.

            Even if the 25% figure were true, that's still less than the Republicans and the media hyped him up as likely to get, especially as he tried to portray himself as a moderate by avoiding taking almost any stand on issues (and then he whined when Democrats called him out for it and exposed him as a reliably would-be vote for most of the Bush/GOP agenda.)

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:45:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I've always found that claim dubious (0+ / 0-)

            We have no way of knowing, really, but I took a random sample of some 90+% black VAP precincts in Maryland, and Steele received the following in the two-party vote in each precinct:

            PG County

            06-020 - 16.5%
            06-022 - 11.1%
            12-013 - 14.5%
            13-003 - 13.6%
            13-012 - 20.4%
            18-006 - 14.1%

            Baltimore

            08-006 - 18.4%
            16-003 - 15.0%
            18-001 - 12.9%
            20-003 - 17.7%
            27-036 - 15.5%
            28-002 - 19.7%
            28-013 - 19.2%

            Baltimore County

            02-002 - 18.9%
            02-004 - 20.6%

            Unless he did a lot better with blacks in integrated neighborhoods, I suspect he got somewhere in the mid-teens.

      •  Has it? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, JBraden

        Thurmond had a bi-racial daughter.  Hypocrisy still rules.

        Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

        by Paleo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:10:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  See? Republicans aren't racist (9+ / 0-)

      If he wasn't black, I doubt he'd have even been at the front of the line for the position, he's barely any different than anyone else in the South Carolina Republican delegation, they just need a prop to claim that they don't have a race problem.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:22:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, but in National Journal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, JBraden

        Josh Krashaaur slobbers over the tea party as encouraging more diversity in GOP ranks:

        http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

        Is this analysis just clueless, or flat-out stupid?

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:50:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  GOP hypocrisy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        on affirmative action.  First we had Romney's "binders full of women" (if his seeking out of women applicants for state jobs wasn't affirmative action, I don't know what is), now this.  Reminds me of ex-RR Commissioner Michael Williams.  He's black, very conservative, and not crazy like Alan Keyes.  However, he was appointed to the commission in the late 90's and was re-elected with the rest of the GOP slate ever since.  But when he had to run for an office all on his own (the TX-25 primary), he came in 5th!  I'd say this matters about as much to the GOP and the black vote as Clarence Thomas' being the only black Justice on the SCOTUS.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:59:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's both a smart and meaningless pick. (0+ / 0-)

      From what I understand, he's really no different than DeMint ideologically. He just happens to be black. I am not sure if I see him losing a primary, which means he might be a senator for life, or close to it. I happen to think South Carolina might be a target state for Democrats sooner rather than later. If that's the case, then the pick is smart, because in order to win, Democrats will need to maximize the black vote. Scott being a senator might make it easier for him, and perhaps down the line through some persistent hard work, for Republicans to peel off a larger, but still small, percentage of the black vote.

      At the same time, it's kind of meaningless. It's all well and good for the Republicans to have more color, but is it going to be the start of change on a grander scale? I'd guess the answer is no. It probably won't mean all that much in South Carolina, at least not in the short term, and certainly less nationwide.

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:58:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Took a look at VA-02 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, James Allen, KingofSpades

    On a city/county by city/county (damn Virginia and its independent cities!) basis to get an idea of where it's drifting.  Comparing 2008 only PVI to 2012 PVI:

    Accomack - R+4 (unchanged)
    Virginia Beach - R+4 to R+3
    Newport News - R+3 to EVEN
    Hampton City - D+1 to D+5
    Norfolk City - D+2 to D+6
    Northampton - D+5 to D+6

    The Eastern Shore will remain roughly evenly split into the future.  There aren't many conservative whites to lose out here.  Romney got higher turnout in Accomack, but Obama's vote totals across both counties barely changed.  

    The "white" portions of Newport News, Hampton City, and Norfolk will continue to drift to the left.  They were constructed to wrap around a VRA district, and the black population in Hampton Roads will continue to disperse somewhat over the next decade.  Presumably white conservative votes will continue to migrate to the hinterlands as well.  

    That leaves Virginia Beach as the only real Republican base in the district.  It's pretty close to a 50/50 city already, and although Obama had a fair size drop off here (down a net of 3,500 votes), the percentage slide was smaller than his national decline.  

    My understanding is Forbes has become somewhat entrenched.  However, a Democrat should be able to pick him off some time in 2016 or later.  Meyera E. Oberndorf, the ex-mayor of Virginia Beach, might work.  She was defeated in 2008, and is now 71, but she held office for 20 years, and there might be some local goodwill for her.  

    •  Forbes is VA-04 (0+ / 0-)

      but the rest of your post leaves me to hope for a better VA!

      While such may be minimal in effect, The Amtrak Northeast Corridor just got a round trip to Norfolk added, hopefully bringing this district more into the northeast culturally :)

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:06:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oops...you're right... (0+ / 0-)

        I meant Rigell.  I always get them confused because they don't live that far apart.  

        Rigell is a pretty staunch conservative for what has become a very swingy district.  I think he's probably the weakest Republican from the class of 2010, in terms of his resume and general fit for the district.  

        VA-04 holds promise later in the decade as well, but I'd put it in the "likely" not "lean" cataory.  It's still about R+4 to R+3 (depending upon which measure of PVI you want to use), and we need an exceptional candidate to pick up such seats.  

    •  hampton roads (0+ / 0-)
      The "white" portions of Newport News, Hampton City, and Norfolk will continue to drift to the left.
      Why do you say this? What's the profile of SE VA whites?
      •  I put white in quotes... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy

        Because basically due to the need to craft a VRA district, they kept plenty of precincts out of VA-03 which had a sizable (but not majority) black population.  

        In 2010, the White population in each subsection (VAP) was as follows...

        Eastern Shore: 63%
        Virginia Beach: 67%
        Norfolk: 63%
        Hampton: 63%
        Newport News: 67%

        Black populations vary from just under 20% to nearly 30%.  There is a a sprinkling of Latinos, Asians, and others throughout.  

        Regardless. my main point is the whole area is diversifying.  The "white" sections of the three cities listed at the end are only majority white now.  Inevitably, more blacks and other minorities will move into some of these neighborhoods, as is happening everywhere.  The white population of most of these cities shrunk from 2000 to 2010 as well IIRC.  Thus even if the white voting populace doesn't change much, the district will become a lot less white over the decade, and drift toward us.  

    •  Awesome deductions there. (0+ / 0-)

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:47:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pennsylvania results (0+ / 0-)

    Whooh! This Pennsylvania resident is very happy to see results for PA-04, PA-08, PA-14, PA-16, PA-18. I also can't wait to see PA-06, PA-07, PA-15 in particular of the remaining districts.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:05:18 AM PST

  •  Republicans will try to end winner take all EVs (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, KingTag, jj32, R30A, askew, Taget

    in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

    Typical of them.  If they can't win, they try to change the rules.

    The proposals, the senior GOP official said, are likely to come up in each state's legislative session in 2013. Bills have been drafted, and legislators are talking to party bosses to craft strategy.
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:07:56 AM PST

    •  Most interesting quote of the article (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, itskevin, Taget

      Talking about the early republic, when many states did not yet use the winner take all model:

      "State legislative elections became tantamount to the presidential election in a state. Local issues were put aside for presidential politics," McDonald said. "These states legislators thus risk the nationalization of their state politics, to the detriment of their personal careers. State legislators learned that once they fixed the Electoral College rules, national politics no longer dominated state elections."

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:20:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's (6+ / 0-)

      next? Republicans wanting an amendment that states that rural/exurban congressional districts only need half as many people as urban districts do?

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:24:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Blatant cheating (8+ / 0-)
      "With the frustration of the current system—and the fact that almost everyone would agree proportional or CD is more representative and maybe more fair than the current winner-take-all—Republicans have a strong, righteous argument,"
      Fine, be fair and give us proportional allocation of Texas's electoral votes.
    •  Federal Government should step in... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      Because this is hyper-partisan bullshit.  Why else are Republicans only pushing this in Dem states when they also have total control in Texas, all the deep south etc?

      The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:33:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm (0+ / 0-)

        sure Republicans will say this is payback for Obamacare or some other bullshit.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:54:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  these won't pass (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, KingofSpades, JBraden

        WI, MI, and PA have far too many marginally GOP districts that a Dem presidential candidate can potentially win even in a neutral year. Dems would go all out to win these districts at the presidential level, which would create trouble for GOP House incumbents.

        WI, which Obama had on the back burner until late:
        1 (Ryan) - O 47.4, R 51.6
        6 (Petri) - O 45.8, R 53.1
        7 (Duffy) - O 47.8, R 50.9
        8 (Ribble) - O 47.2, R 51.6

        MI, which Obama blew off this year:
        1 (Benishek) - O 45.3, R 53.6
        6 (Upton) - O 48.8, R 50.2
        7 (Walberg) - O 47.9, R 51.0
        8 (Rogers) - O 48.0, R 51.1
        11 (Bentivolio) - O 46.9, R 52.3

        PA, which Obama mostly blew off:
        8 (Fitzpatrick) - O 49.3, R 49.4
        16 (Pitts) - O 46.3, R 52.4
        6 (Gerlach), 7 (Meehan), and 15 (Dent) are not in yet but were also probably very close.

        Most of these guys won with little trouble this year, but most of them also drew weak and/or underfunded opponents in addition to the weak or nonexistent Dem presidential effort. If these bills actually get proposed, expect them to burn up the phones to every GOP legislator in their districts.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:24:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy

          Though is that Democrats would have to redirect money that could go elsewhere, which is another piece of the puzzle for Republicans. If it doesn't help in the swing districts, it'll still get them EVs from the states and help them keep their marginal states that may not get the same level of Democratic investment.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:47:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  If it's proportionally rather than per district... (0+ / 0-)

          That it would avoid the increased interest in the individual districts.  What they want to do is If Dem wins state pop vote 55%-45% than Dem would get 55% of electoral vote from that state and the Repub 45%...

          The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:50:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Ohio? (0+ / 0-)

      If they do this in Ohio it works to our advantage, since it's an R-leaning state. It even seems a bit risky for them in PA, which was already essentially a tipping point state this year and may be slightly R-trending (though I don't know whether that trend will continue).

      On a related note: status quo bias is a funny thing. There's really no reason the republicans shouldn't use these rules to their advantage like this, but the fact that we have these bizarre 18th-century rules in the first place is totally bonkers. And yet we all act like, "Eh, just how it is..."

      •  PA is not R-trending (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        In any way at the Pres level.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:35:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes it is (0+ / 0-)

          It moved from D+2 to D+1 04/08 to 08/12. It was D+1 in both 08 and 12, and was D+3 in 2004.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:49:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No it's not. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            that's just statistical noise.  It's solidly Democratic.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:54:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  ... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              D+1 in any universe is not solidly Democratic.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:09:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Avg Prez margin of victory (0+ / 0-)

                In last 4 election cycles:

                2012: Obama +310K votes (52.1 to 46.7)
                2008: Obama +620K votes (54.7 to 44.3)
                2004: Kerrey +145K votes (51.0 to 48.5)
                2000: Gore +204K votes (50.6 to 46.4)

                Average margin of victory is around 320K votes in the last 4 elections.  please find me a state where the average margin of victory is (1) for the same party and (2) over 300K votes that isn't considered solidly for that party.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:23:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  maybe not "solidly" Democratic (0+ / 0-)

                But it's very stably Democratic.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:51:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  that means no trend from 08 to 12. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, KingofSpades

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:01:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  There was a trend from '08 to '12. (0+ / 0-)

              The margin moved 1.35% towards the republicans. The trend from '04 to '08 was 1.91% - so 3.26% over two elections. It's not nothing. But again, I have no idea whether this trend is going to continue.

              •  Could be a Barack Obama thing (0+ / 0-)

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:25:21 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Could be. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  skibum59

                  But it could also be that Obama juiced turnout among African Americans and white Philadelphians in a way that actually masked the severity of the Dem decline among working class whites, and the trend will get even worse in 2016.

                  •  Maybe blue collar white in Western PA (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    JBraden

                    I'm not sure what working class means, but the gains in the Philly ring counties Dems have been making are mostly white voters.  

                    Admittedly they are more white collar than say much of Western PA, but I tend to think there's a good number of working class whites in Bucks/Delaware/Montgomery counties outside Philly.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:21:14 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Hrrm... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades

                      Lower Bucks County definitely has a big working-class white contingent, as do certain parts of Delaware County.  Montgomery not quite as much, although there certainly are some older mill towns along the Schuylkill.  These are increasingly becoming black & Latino as time marches on however.  

                      But the blue-collar decline is really a rural Southwestern Pennsylvania thing.  Despite being a very culturally similar area, the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) has seen no erosion in Democratic support.  Even within Allegheny County, Obama did better in a lot of the poor, majority-white mill towns this year than he did in 2008.  

                      •  Wyoming Valley... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera, jncca

                        is demographically similar to SW PA, but isn't it culturally and historically more connected to places like upstate New York and western New England than it is to Appalachia?

                        •  It was settled... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Chachy

                          By migrants from Connecticut during the late 1700s, so it does have somewhat of a Yankee vibe.  The Wyoming Valley and Erie are really the only places in Pennsylvania where the old housing style was New England - style wood, rather than Pennsylvania brick rowhouse.  

                          In addition, the Scranton area in particular is part of the New York media market, which may influence things slightly.  It's really a bit too far out to have anyone commute to NYC though, and the Wyoming Valley remains one of the whitest urbanized areas of the country.  

                      •  Are those steel mills still running? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Chachy

                        I saw the "Deer Hunter" (which had Act 1 and Act 3 take place in Clairton in Allegheny County) and it depressed me when they kept showing how dependent on the steel mills everyone was for employment and knowing that there would be a crash in mill employment with the rise in outsourcing.

                        Yes, Allegheny was inoculated from any red shift it seemed.  Must be partially due to the fact that between 2008 and 2012, Pittsburgh actually increased in pop. for the first time in decades (by 0.8% from 2010 to 2011, per the ACS).  Another thing to note is that Democrats picked up a GOP-leaning State Senate district in the county against perennial candidate Raja.

                        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:59:06 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I've been wondering... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades

                          ...is that Raja dude EVER going to hang it up?

                          •  Yeah, it must be particularly dispiriting (0+ / 0-)

                            to lose a GOP-held open seat that (IIRC) leaned GOP.  It's one thing to lose Allegheny County Exec. (it's easy to dismiss the loss to the county's blue lean), but another to lose a district more suited to your party.

                            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                            by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:32:56 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  I saw some great... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades

                          Precinct by precinct maps of Allegheny County.  I'm sure you don't know local geography, but I'll summarize.  

                          1.  Obama did worse in upper-middle class suburbs where he performed unusually well for a Democrat.  This is not surprising given national results.  He also did a bit worse in a few very far out mill towns along the Allegheny and Mon which have little black population, and are very similar to the rural counties.  

                          2.  On the other hand, he performed much better in Pittsburgh proper, first-ring suburbs, and the closer-in mill towns.  Some of this was due to continued demographic transition (he did much better in northern Penn Hills, for example, where there is a lot of white flight going on).  But this clearly isn't the case in a lot of examples.  Obama simply seems to have done better among blue-collar whites this time.  Or more properly, Romney did worse among them then McCain did.  

              •  ok, but that's not what he said. (0+ / 0-)

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:48:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Relative trends are important, but they (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, R30A

            don't mean everything.

            The state's been within the same sort of margin for decades now. The Republican still can't crack Philly, which is actually growing again, and Democrats seem to be doing better and better in the parts of the state, the counties in southeastern Pennsylvania, even as they are doing a little worse in much of the western half, which is losing population.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:11:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  That could very well have something to do with (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            Both campaigns ignoring the state until the last week. PA was contested from start to finish in both 2004 and 2008.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:11:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I wonder how that conversation at RNC (18+ / 0-)

      headquarters went.

      Probably something like this:

      "Look, there is no hiding it. We Republicans had a horrible election. We look so out of touch on so many issues. We need to change. We need to stop treating the US president like he is a foreigner. Especially now that he has won a majority twice. We need to emphasize that you can be pro-life without being anti-birth control. That you can be a fiscal conservative, without being so rigid on tax rates. We need to have a discussion on gay marriage. Many in our party are against it, but more and more Americans, especially younger voters, support it. And we need to recognize that comprehensive immigration reform isnt just about winning Hispanics, but is a pragmatic plan to deal with a complex and difficult issue. If we can do that, we can become a winning party again.

      (pause)

      Or we can just change the way the electoral college allocates its votes in states that Dems consistently win.

      Everyone else in the room: Yeah, great, let's do the second one.

    •  Whoa! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, CF of Aus, sapelcovits

      Paleo got beat on a link! See upthread!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:58:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Delaware County election results by precinct (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, drhoosierdem, skibum59

    Apparently, DelCo, PA refuses to publish their election results by precinct online. You have to mail a request in and then they'll  tell you the price depending on how many pages you need (copies are 25 cents per page) and then you mail them the check and they'll send them off (I think... Unfortunately, I forgot to ask if they'll mail you the results or if you have to pick them up, unfortunately).

    I would just offer to go pick those up and input the data on a spreadsheet, but it's finals week and then I leave Pennsylvania for a month. I also don't have a car on campus, so getting to Media, PA would be rather difficult for me.

    Is anyone from Delaware County willing to go fetch those results?

    Address:
    Bureau of Elections
    Government Center Building
    201 W Front Street
    Media, PA 19063

    Fax:
    610-892-0641

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:12:18 AM PST

  •  A comment on 2012 election commentary (8+ / 0-)

    So I saw on HuffPost that Pat Robertson called Obama a socialist.

    I know, what's the big deal? But when I read what he said, I thought, "Is there anything Robertson said about Obama  that would really be considered outside of the conservative mainstream?" Probably not.

    Then I remembered this recent letter to TPM. The writer, JB, notes that part of the "surprising" turnout among African Americans and young voters may be because these voters were motivated by some of the disrespectful things said/done by GOP regarding the president. They cite specific incidents like "You lie!" and also the questioning of his birthplace and religion.

    Which gets me to the subject of this post. So much of the 2012 election commentary has been about the GOP stance/messaging on certain issues: immigration reform, marriage equality, birth control, taxes, etc. And that certainly has to be part of the discussion.

    But it's interesting to me that very little of the discussion has focused on the GOP tone towards the president and whether that might have had an effect. I mean, you would see moments of rationality from some Republicans. They would note Obama is a nice guy, but he has failed on the economy. But right after that, Romney would go campaigning with Donald Trump.

    I think you could argue that the GOP's treatment of Obama as an illegitimate president, an alien, affected them more than their stance on any issue.

    •  I've made this point, I think (10+ / 0-)

      For people of color, yes the racism toward the President mattered very much.  I think the refusal to budge even a trivial amount away from him, as evidenced in county-level election results and state and national exit polls, while millions of white voters flipped from '08, tells the tale.

      Some of that is about the simple fact that all minority groups are to the left of whites on policy.

      But more than white people realize did the the racism matter.  The constant disrespect toward Obama included as a motive that he's black.  We know that.  And the more overt racism speaks for itself.

      And it's not getting better for the GOP.  People like Tim Scott do not put even a small dent into their problem.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:06:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And I was going to say, I think there is a debate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        to be had over whether this is racism or not. Younger voters and minorities especially, may have perceived it that way.

        This isnt directed at you or your comment, but I think some on the left use the race card too much, when there is other valid criticism of the GOP. For example, many of the people on the right who have no problem questioning Obama's religion and birthplace, and insulting his wife, were the same people who said we couldnt criticize Bush AT ALL, because he is the commander in chief, we are at war, and he has a difficult job to do.

        Is that hypocrisy because Obama is black and Bush is white? Maybe. But a lot of it, to me, is that many tea partiers are essentially Republicans, whether they admit it or not, and they often let GOP presidents have a pass on things that they would criticize Democrats for. Spending, for example. Obama has been a failure in cutting entitlement reform, but there were no tea party protest when Bush added hundreds of billions to the deficit to EXPAND an entitlement program with Medicare Part D. How to explain that?

        Even to this day, after Bush left with very low approval, after he was a significant factor in costing the GOP the last two presidential elections, there is little criticism of him. Is that because of race or partisanship? Mostly the latter, imo.  

        •  Yeah no, it's racism. (8+ / 0-)
          For example, many of the people on the right who have no problem questioning Obama's religion and birthplace, and insulting his wife, were the same people who said we couldnt criticize Bush AT ALL, because he is the commander in chief, we are at war, and he has a difficult job to do.
          It's inconceivable that birtherism would exist if race were not a factor. Republicans would oppose any Democratic president, of course, but they wouldn't oppose any Democrat on the grounds that they weren't really American.

          My standard racism mini-rant: we always talk past each other on race because many conservatives tend to understand only explicit racism as true racism, and so if you ever accuse them of being racist they hear it as though you're accusing them of wearing white sheets and using the n-word. But most racism is implicit, which tends to be invisible to whites but blaringly obvious to non-whites. Forms of implicit racism are so intertwined with conservative criticisms of Obama as to be inextricable, even among the GOP establishment (e.g., the Romney campaign's rhetoric about welfare, etc.), who probably don't even realize they're being racist. Ta-Nehisi Coates argued this point very eloquently.

          •  Also, you say: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, Zack from the SFV
            Even to this day, after Bush left with very low approval, after he was a significant factor in costing the GOP the last two presidential elections, there is little criticism of him. Is that because of race or partisanship? Mostly the latter, imo.  
            But this ignores the extent to which partisanship itself (or tea partierism, or conservatism generally) is motivated by race. The GOP has essentially organized itself as a party of white cultural identity; many of those who vote for them vote out of solidarity with this identity.
          •  To be clear, I wasnt trying to say (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, DCCyclone

            britherism wasnt racist. I think it is. Sorry for the confusion.

            I was speaking more about the hypocrisy on spending.

            Or for example, Susan Rice. Many thought the criticism of her was sexist or racist. It's hard to make that argument, imo, when Graham and McCain supported Condi Rice.

            What you can say, is that the criticism from Graham and McCain is ridiculous on other grounds. Like, if our standard for Senate confirmation, is never being wrong on TV, how does all the misinformation on Iraq that Condi provided fit into that? Seems like Condi couldnt meet the same standard set for Susan.

            But of course, Condi Rice, the president who nominated her, Graham and McCain are all Republicans. So the standard was different.

            •  Along these lines, related & tootin' my own horn.. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              ...shamelessly, my e-mail to Josh Marshall was one of a short series he published on this very topic in recent weeks on the TPM Editors' Blog:  http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

              My e-mail generated this response:  http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

              And myself, I was responding to these:

              http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

              http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

              http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

              All the commentaries here touch on this subject, which was completely ignored by the media during the campaign and still is now.  And the Democratic establishment surely was relieved by that, because race becoming an explicit topic is always a loser for Democrats, unless the Republican is actually David Duke himself who has been the only exception to the rule in my lifetime.  The hope on our side always is that the incidents circulate enough in the news to get reasonably absorbed in minority communities, without needing any explicit media discussion beyond the talking head shows, Twitter, and other vehicles that reach more engaged audiences who can take it for what it is.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:20:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  It was racist and sexist. No way that McCain (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV

              would have called a white male Rhodes Scholar with Rice's experience "not very bright". That's the difference white men are given automatic credit for being intelligent just by being white and having a penis. Women and minorities constantly have to prove they have the base qualifications even if they are more qualified than the white men questioning them.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:28:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Yours is the rationalization typical by whites (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          This is where personal experience matters.  For whites, even liberal whites, this is entirely an abstraction.

          For us, it's personal.  It's the experience of life in America as something other than white, and that experience is very different specifically because we are not white.

          And it makes very clear, with no confusion, that much of what white people think is "debatable" is no such thing, on the contrary it's racial tribalism wielded as a sword.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:39:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh please (0+ / 0-)

            It isn't an abstraction for all whites. It isn't for me. My entire academic experience has been steeped in minority and gender politics, and not only that but there are many whites who themselves are minorities (read: gay). And a disproportionate share of people here are gay, so I'm sure they understand what it feels like to be a minority.

            I'm not actually sure about jj, but that doesn't mean that he isn't.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:43:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not white (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, tietack, DCCyclone, CF of Aus

            And to be clear, I'm not trying to rationalize birtherism and other personal smears against Obama as not racist. To be clear, I think those are racist.

            My main point has gotten lost here and I think that's my fault.

            My main point was while many minorities may have seen the disrespect as racist, many other Obama supporters may have just seen it as plain disrespect and were motivated to stand by the president, volunteer, phone bank, etc as a result. And I think that hurt the GOP in the election.

      •  I suspect it's a longer-term problem for them. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I don't think all of the opposition to him was based on race, but even when it's not, it might be seen as such. And if that image sticks, it will make the process of them digging out of the hole they are in even more difficult.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:14:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  hostility (6+ / 0-)

          I think the attempt to deligitimize Obama was 90% because he's a Democrat, 5% because he's black, and 5% because he has a foreign-sounding name. The GOP noise machine did the same thing to Clinton, but with different bogus issues. But it's also true that they made attacks on Obama (teleprompters, grades, food stamps) that they never would have made on any white politician.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:42:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, you make an important point, sacman. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, sacman701

            It's not so much that it's actual racism as much as it is passivity to those who are racists, as tiny in number as they might be, or the frequent use of racist themes to score points. I imagine it's all the same to nonwhites, however.

            Beyond that, even if people didn't do stuff like this, and many if not the majority of his opposition did not, they get tarred with the charge of racism because they refuse to call out their fellow Republicans. I'm fine with that, as unfair as it might seem. It shouldn't be that goddamn difficult for more of the party members, particularly their leaders, to denounce this crap.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:10:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's not a tiny number (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV

              And it's not mere passivity.

              It's fear.

              Fear of losing primaries.

              Because, in fact, it's not a tiny number.

              And this isn't new for decades Republicans had to make the quadrennial trek to Bob Jones University, in its openly white supremacist, anti-semitic, and anti-Catholic heyday, to pay homage to the values of that institution.  That's what it took to win primaries at least in the South, which had become very important toward winning the GOP Presidential nomination.  And while bowing to Bob Jones was the most explicit expression of this, the embrace of racists always had many other examples in the Southern Strategy era.

              The same thing is happening now, GOP electeds don't dare call out birthers and other expressions of racism and xenophobia because their own primary voters are almost completely white and by and large embrace white racial tribalism to an extent as to punish candidates who reject it.

              That's what drives elected officials:  reward and punishment at the ballot box.  And they will avoid like the plague whatever is punished.  That's true on both sides, but on our side bigotry is punished, only increasingly so, while the opposite is true on the Republican side.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:30:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Agree on similarities to Clinton (4+ / 0-)

            I've always thought it's been eery how much Obama's Presidency has paralleled Clinton's in so many ways.  Crazy wingnut conspiracy theories, just different ones.  And conspiracies that directly contradict......for the Clintons, it was that Hillary was a lesbian and had an affair with Vince Foster, and for Obama it's been that he's a secret Muslim with a radical black minister.

            And they've tracked on policy......Obama, like Clinton, started by taking care of unfinished business on previous Democratic-backed bills.  Obama got a stimulus where Clinton couldn't.  Obama got health care reform where Clinton couldn't.  Obama got the ban on gays in the military where Clinton couldn't.  What else?...there is probably more.

            I think it's hard to put a percentage on what "amount" of hostility to Obama is racial.  Mixed motives can be impossible to sort out that way.  I made the point in a comment in the recent past about how racial tribalism is real but can be trumped by other tribalisms, which is why a white voter in South Carolina can have very real racist hostility toward Obama but fully embrace Tim Scott.  Comparing Obama and Clinton, the racism is overlayed on partisan and ideological hostility, so multiple tribal hostilities simply overlap.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:46:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  For me, this did have an effect (6+ / 0-)

      Ideologically, I'm to the left, particularly at the federal level. And it's been frustrating to me, as a policy wonk, to see Republicans in Congress and in many state governments do things that are unethical -- holding the economy hostage over the debt ceiling they've raised dozens of times before with no complaint; ramming through anti-worker laws without a mandate in Rust Belt states; the attempted Colleen Mathis impeachment in Arizona; restricting voting rights in Florida; trying to divide up Pennsylvania's electoral votes to benefit Romney; the list goes on.

      But the thing that I found most consistently infuriating about the Republican Party's conduct was their treatment of President Obama, which ranged from patronizing to downright racist.

      Republicans would say outrageous things about the president and national Republicans either wouldn't respond or would offer a weak, late response after a long enough pause to reassure their base that "wink wink, we're not really condemning this, nudge nudge".

      Republicans wasted time and political capital demanding or investigating the president's birth certificate, college transcript, Social Security number, and more -- and those who were the loudest in this particular wild goose chase were among those whose opinions were sought and endorsements were courted as Republicans jockeyed for the presidential nomination.

      Republicans repeatedly drummed up "controversies" over associates of the president -- family members, friends, advisers, aides, administration officials -- who were almost invariably black (Reggie Love, Valerie Jarrett, Jeremiah Wright, George Obama, Zeituni Onyango, Van Jones, Shirley Sherrod, etc.), frequently besmirching their reputations with false and defamatory attacks while playing up their connection to the president, you know, in a black way.

      Republicans treated the president with far more disrespect even than Democrats treated President Bush. For all the nasty bumper stickers and stand-up bits poking fun at Bush, no one ever stood up from the floor of the House chamber during one of his speeches, shouted, "You lie!" and then fundraised off of it for his next election campaign. No Democratic leader of either chamber of Congress declined to defend Bush's faith when it came into question by saying, "I take him at his word," and doing nothing to shut down speculation otherwise. When Stephen Colbert lampooned Bush at the Correspondents' Dinner back in 2006, many Democrats defended Bush and criticized Colbert, including Rep. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic No.2 in the House; when talk radio hosts said hideous things about Michelle Obama or about the president himself, Republicans were nowhere, and when Ted Nugent said of Democrats that "we need to ride into the battlefield and chop their heads off" and made an apparent threat on Obama's life, Romney laughed it off and kept campaigning with him.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:29:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've always thought (9+ / 0-)

        that for many the "take back our country" rhetoric on the right was code for going back to the days when only white men ruled.  And it's not always just Obama; since at least the 1980s the GOP has often acted like they have some divine God-given (or at least Reagan-given) right to the White House which was unjustly usurped four times now.  

        I think those who say that are just being spoiled children who think they're entitled to win everything.  Fuck them.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:59:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's what Goldwater warned about evangelicals (6+ / 0-)

          they think God is on their side and can't accept compromise.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:03:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's the Goldwater quote: (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, JBraden, skibum59
            Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the (Republican) party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.
            Barry Goldwater described EXACTLY how today's Republicans operate.

            Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:18:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I want my country back (0+ / 0-)

          Was clearly a racial issue.  it would have been one thing if it had happened after some huge change in America's inner-workings; instead it seemed to become the battle cry about 15 minutes into Obama's presidency.  

          The optics (audio) of it were too obvious.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 01:06:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Japanese Parliamentary Lower House Results (4+ / 0-)

    Liberal Democratic Party (LDP):

    District vote: 43.01% (+4.33%)
    Proportional Block vote: 27.79% (+1.06%)
    Seats: 294 (+176)
    New Komeito (NKP):
    District vote: 1.49% (+0.38%)
    Proportional Block vote: 11.9% (+0.45%)
    Seats: 31 (+10)
    Total LDP-NKP:
    District vote: 44.49% (+4.65%)
    Proportional Block vote: 39.69% (+1.43%)
    Seats: 325 (+185)
    Despite only a 4+% swing in their favor, the LDP went from 64 district seats to 237. This is a function of the divided opposition, but also of an effective and longstanding LDP gerrymander, which has resulted in varying populations in different districts. (The most populous district has more than 10 times the population of the least populous.)

    Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ):

    District vote: 22.81% (-24.62%)
    Proportional Block vote: 15.49% (-26.92%)
    Seats: 57 (-173)
    People’s New Party (PNP):
    District vote: 0.20% (-0.84%)
    Proportional Block vote: 0.12% (-1.61%)
    Seats: 1 (-2)
    Total DPJ-PNP:
    District vote: 23.01% (-25.46%)
    Proportional Block vote: 15.61% (-28.53%)
    Seats: 58 (-175)
    The DPJ was badly punished for their tenure. Rather than overperform, as we’ve seen unpopular governments do in Europe in recent years, they apparently received a much smaller proportion of undecideds than the LDP or JRP.

    Japan Restoration Party (JRP):

    District vote: 11.64% (new party)
    Proportional Block vote: 20.50% (new party)
    Seats: 54 (+43)
    Although the JRP came in a clear second in terms of the proportional vote, they were annihilated in the district vote, and failed to overtake the DPJ as the second largest party. The JRP tended to poll third in the proportional vote however, so this can be considered something of a pyrrhic victory for them.

    Your Party (YP):

    District vote: 4.71% (+3.84%)
    Proportional Block vote: 8.77% (+4.5%)
    Seats: 18 (+10)
    After the LDP, YP is unquestionably the second biggest winner of this election. The party has benefited from the natural benefits of being perpetually in opposition, as well as from their perceived distance and refusal to compromise with other parties. Their vote is indicative of both Japan’s turn right in this election, and voter’s exasperation with traditional parties and politicians.

    Tomorrow Party of Japan (TPJ)*:

    District vote: 5.02% (new party)
    Proportional Block vote: 5.72% (new party)
    Seats: 9 (-52)
    *The Tomorrow Party of Japan is the party referred to in my preview as the Japan Future Party (JFP.) Since the publishing of that preview, the party has officially requested its name be translated into english as the Tomorrow Party and I will abide by that request.

    The jury is still out on this result. The Tomorrow Party of Japan performed about in line with expectations; unfortunately for them, expectations weren’t very high. The party survived, not quite irrelevant, but failing to break into the upper-tier of parties. Little has changed for Ozawa and friends, with their new party straddling the line between relevancy and irrelevancy, much as the TPJ and Ozawa’s faction have been for some time.

    Japanese Communist Party (JCP):

    District vote: 7.88% (+3.66%)
    Proportional Block vote: 6.17% (-0.86%)
    Seats: 8 (-1)
    Like the JRP, the JCP failed in the tangible goals, but there’s good news for the party reading between the lines. The party saw a strong increase in district results, despite running fewer district candidates than in ‘09. The party suffered slightly in the proportional vote at the hands of the plethora of new parties contesting, but held up considerably better than the SDP and other archaic leftist parties. Overall, the party received many more overall votes than in the 2009 election.

    Nonetheless, internal strategic reforms are needed in the party. The JCP insists, on principle, on spending all of its money paying monetary deposits to run as many candidates as possible. This is a huge, unnecessary drain on the party’s resources (no party files more candidates than they have to; the DPJ, for example, didn’t even pay to have a candidate in enough districts to hypothetically be able to win a majority, after it became clear they weren’t going to get one.) If the party was willing to re-prioritize its resources to focus on winnable constituencies (as the Canadian Greens are demonstrating), they could have potentially captured as many seats as Your Party.

    Social Democratic Party (SDP):

    District vote: 0.76% (-1.19%)
    Proportional Block vote: 2.38% (-1.89%)
    Seats: 2 (-3)
    The environmentalist SDP suffered particularly harshly with the rise the TPJ. In an election where voters looked to new parties and leaders, the SDP was the old guard to the current old guard. They were left behind.

    New Party Nippon (NPN):

    District vote: 0.53% (+0.22%)
    Proportional Block vote: 0.58% (-0.17%)
    Seats: 1 (-2)
    NPN is one of the tiny “postal reform rebel” parties formed by former LDP MPs during Koizumi’s tenure. They were briefly in government with the DPJ after the ‘09 election. NPN leader Yasuo Tanaka unexpectedly clung to his district seat.

    Miscellaneous Independents:

    District vote: 1.69% (-1.12%)
    Proportional Block vote: no Proportional Block vote
    Seats: 5 (-4)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:21:36 AM PST

    •  Thoughts? (0+ / 0-)

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:21:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm glad the US has Reynolds v. Sims (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        I have no doubt in my mind that we would have ridiculously unequal districts without it.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:55:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  and Wesberry v. Sanders (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          Wesberry requires that Congressional districts be equal population, Reynolds applies the same requirement to state legislatures.

          30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

          Truman: "The buck stops here!"
          Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

          by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 10:57:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Idk how they would do that in Japan though (0+ / 0-)

          the districts currently all follow political borders - wards in the case of big cities, and otherwise city/town borders. (part of the city of Nara which was annexed into the city is also in a separate district from the rest of the city.) is it actually OK for Japan to, say, split small cities/towns in order to achieve population equality? I'm honestly not sure how this works.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:45:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

            The Supreme Court ruled the current district lines illegal because of the malapportionment, remember? It's just none of them have the will to enforce that decision, so they were ignored.

            The reform will come whenever it's convenient for the party in power to change the lines -- which will mean the improvements, probably won't end up being such improvements. Noda and the DPJ were disadvantaged by the maps, but, by the time the district lines were ruled unconstitutional, the DPJ had too many defectors to pass legislation. (The consumption tax increase was passed with LDP-NKP support, and obviously the LDP-NKP coalition wouldn't purposefully give the DPJ better maps!)

            Another issue with electoral reform is that a lot of people see it as admitting the 1994 electoral reforms (which changed the lower house from SNTV to the current system) were a mistake, and no one wants to do that (since the '94 reforms were supposed to help ease the problems of malapportionment and corruption.)

            The best result for Japan would probably be a transfer to national party list PR, but, particularly with the LDP (who benefit so much from the current system) back in power, it remains very unlikely.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:59:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I wasn't sure (0+ / 0-)

              if the Supreme Court's ruling was saying that not having exact population equality overall was unconstitutional, or whether they were simply not close enough to equal.

              also, how long until we get DRA for Japan? :)

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 12:50:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  First African American southern senator since (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    politicalmetrics, WisJohn, bfen, Taget

    Reconstruction.  

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    I did not realize we have had so few African American senators in history.

  •  'Twould Be Poetic Justice (0+ / 0-)

    For Klein to get dumped that way. A failed coup would make him a sitting target, just waiting to be primaried.

    •  The deal will remain in place. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, itskevin, skibum59

      The Republcians really didn't need the IDC last time either.  It's an insurance policy and it divides and creates discord within the Democratic Party.

      In fact it makes the deal even better for Republicans because it takes a lot of the risk out.

      The IDC gets some chairs.  But the committees are stacked towards the Republicans.  Which of course is why it screws Democrats.

      Now here is the safety valve.  Klein can bring bills directly to the floor in consultation with the Republicans.  What this means is they can introduce watered down legislation.  Which if the Republicans have a majority will of course be voted down.  It means any Democrat who wants to bring ANYTHING to the floor has to kiss Klein's ring.  And anyone on his vast "go screw yourself" list need not apply.

      Now the hope the Republicans had (and would still have if they gain the majority for anything that might be able to get a moderate Republican or two) is that Democrats being humiliated and spat upon would vote against IDC legislation out of spite.  Even if they agree with most of it.  And the IDC will have to go to the Republicans to get the votes they need to pass something to show off to the voters back home.

      It won't fall apart because it fits in nicely with the Republican Party agenda of destabilizing and demoralizing the Democatic Party.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:46:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Members of Electoral College meeting today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    to certify the election.

    CSPAN showing NC right now, Elaine Marshall speaking.

    Isnt there also a later event at the US Capitol where the VP reads the results of the EC?

    I remember in 04/05, Cheney reading the EC results, and he noted how one elector in MN had cast their vote for John Edwards for president. Everyone suddenly started talking in the previously quiet chamber.  

  •  Abusing the legal process (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold

    is something Australians like their politicians to do?

    Australia's colourful former speaker Peter Slipper last week had charges of sexual harassment against him dismissed last week. The judge found that the claims made by his former staffer were an abuse of process made only to destroy the speakers career.

    Slipper had been forced to stand down as speaker a few months ago when evidence presented to the court revealed that he had compared certain parts of the female anatomy to "unshelled mussels" in private text messages.

    Slipper is currently polling at 3% in a bold attempt to retain his seat as an independent (his favourables are 7/76). He is running as an independent since he lost renomination by his party to former Howard government minister Mal Brough.

    Mal Brough was also implicated, in the judges decision, as abusing process by conspiring with the staffer to launch the false sexual harassment claim. 38% of voters say the Brough's involvement in the conspiracy makes them less likely to vote for him. However, incredibly, 22% say that it makes them more likely to vote for him.

    22% of voters like politicians to abuse the legal process to destroy political opponents?

  •  brief SC1 2012 voting summary (0+ / 0-)

    SC1 by County
    Overall: 58/40 Romney
    Charleston: 56/43 R (123k)
    Dorchester: 59/39 R (48k)
    Beaufort: 60/39 R (68k)
    Berkeley: 61/37 R (58k)
    Colleton: 499-163 R (75-24)

    Congress
    Overall: 62/36 Scott
    Charleston: 60/37 Scott
    Dorchester: 64/34 Scott
    Beaufort: 61/37 Scott
    Berkeley: 65/33 Scott
    Colleton: 540-99 Scott (83-15)

    Scott was running in Beaufort for the first time, and ran relatively even with Romney.

    He ran about 4-5% ahead of Romney in Charleston/Dorchester/Berkeley

    And if you take out Horry and Georgetown, then Ketner finishes ahead of Henry Brown (at least until you add Beaufort votes)

    Then again, Henry Brown wasn't from Charleston.

    That's another wildcard.. what is the Republican primary turnout gonna be by county..

    Not sure if anybody has made a candidate list. But Chip Campsen is a Republican State Senator whose district is zany enough that it covers a lot of turf in the district. It goes from Parris Island to Charleston (in-between Calhoun St and the sea) to Mt. Pleasant to Campsen's Isle of Palms residence. Although if Campsen runs, he'll face his first opponent for anything since 2004 (when his district was Folly Beach to Charleston to Goose Creek to Charleston to Mt. Pleasant to Isle of Palms).

    But if not Ketner, then Leon Stavrinakis' is a Dem whose district includes parts of SC1

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:30:04 AM PST

    •  as for Republicans who lost to Scott in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

      Paul Thurmond is now a State Senator, barely (he was caught in a funnel involving lots of SC candidates over disclosures and he had to get through a September/October primary that was called after problems with R candidates)

      Tumpy Campbell was last seen endorsing Jon Huntsman.

      the SC1/SC6 line is around one block north of the line mentioned on the Campsen district. Which makes it a rare French Quarter that is represented by a Republican (except for the Joseph Cao era)

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:41:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I went on the WA redistricting commish web site (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, WisJohn, Audrid

    and ordered a FREE pamphlet with fold-out maps of the new leg and Cong. maps to be shipped to me.  A Yuletide gift that can be perused without internet.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:49:42 AM PST

  •  as for when Scott resigns (0+ / 0-)

    "The timing of the special hinges largely on when Scott resigns, but if things go as planned, a May election looks likely."

    considering that DeMint is gone at the end of the month, the first day Scott could be sworn in is January 3rd, the first day of the 113th, thus he'd be resigning from the 113th right then.

    So filing in the middle of January

    Primaries around March, with runoffs two weeks later. And then an election in late April or May?

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:30:50 PM PST

  •  Laborers will endorse Gov. Christie (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, CF of Aus

    Well, that probably closes the book on NJ-Gov. Story here.

    The bar has been lowered! No matter how conservative a Republican you are, you just have to say something, anything nice about a Democrat, and you will get factions that should be your archnemeses to endorse you early enough to scare viable Democrats out of the race.

    Of course, you also have to be able to ward off a primary challenge for being such a RINO as to say something, anything nice about a Democrat. But Christie obviously doesn't have to worry about that happening to him.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:39:58 PM PST

    •  If he had a GOP legislature (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      they'd be singing a different tune.  The only remotely union-busting thing he was able to do was the pension reform for state employees that puts the collective bargaining in the hands of a board equally composed of state officials and union reps.  At least Democrats are more than favored to keep the majority and we have a solid shot at VA-Gov at this point in time.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:47:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So when (0+ / 0-)

      some Democrats don't vote down the line for the union agenda, I don't want to hear them cry betrayal.

  •  West Virginia becomes 48th State to certify (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    Nov 6th Election Results

    Romney 417655
    Obama 238269

    http://apps.sos.wv.gov/...

    http://apps.sos.wv.gov/...

    According to my own Exel Spreadsheet

    Obama 65600035
    Romney 60861681

    Vote Difference: 4738354

    Wiki has it

    Obama 65600358
    Romney 60861543

    Vote Difference: 4738815

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    Dave Wasserman Spreadsheet

    https://docs.google.com/...

  •  Oh, labor... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew, JBraden

    The joke of it is, republican advocacy groups like pro-life groups and the NRA have the good sense to support republican candidates, because they know that partisan control is what really matters in politics - and democrats cower before those groups anyways; whereas dem groups like labor and NARAL pull this kind of shit and endorse republicans - and republicans do everything in their power to stomp out these groups anyways.

  •  Part of why (7+ / 0-)

    Obama is raiding the Senate for his cabinet is because he was a senator himself, so he knows these people.  While I am appalled at the opportunity for the GOP in Massachusetts, I do understand why Obama had to pick Kerry.  Hillary Clinton is a titan in foreign relations.  She is a freaking juggernaut in the political sphere.  Obama couldn't let her successor be a light weight.  As much as I respect Susan Rice, her service in the UN doesn't match up to Kerry's years and years of foreign policy experience in the Senate.  Obama had to pick the best of the best to succeed Hillary, plain and simple.

  •  AZ GOP Chair, Electors are birthers (5+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:28:30 PM PST

  •  HI-Sen: Daniel Inoye dies (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, KingofSpades, askew, CF of Aus

    Last words were "Aloha"

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:47:09 PM PST

  •  Dan Inouye just passed away (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:47:23 PM PST

  •  As for EC splits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    would Section 5 be of relevance to the Virginia effort?

    Now more than ever, it's time to amend. If you win a majority, you win the election.

    As for what happens when no candidate wins a majority, that's still up in the air, but a proportional EC is far more fair and reasonable than a gerrymander-based EC.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 02:56:14 PM PST

  •  Sen. Inouye has died (9+ / 0-)

    The nation weeps for our loss. He will be missed, and lives on in the memories of the people and the lives of those he's helped and uplifted.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:04:15 PM PST

  •  I guess he didn't want Stevens to wait too long (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    RIP Inouye.  

  •  NJ: the laborers union doesn't give a damn about (0+ / 0-)

    public workers' unions.  In fact, they were supportive of Christie.  And Steve Sweeney, who spearheaded the effort to screw public workers, is a union rep in the building trades.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:12:57 PM PST

  •  I hope the sad passing on Inouye gives (0+ / 0-)

    Obama second thoughts about picking Kerry.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:16:11 PM PST

  •  HI-Sen: Appointment procedure. (0+ / 0-)

    The State Democratic Party is going to give a list of three names to Gov. Abercrombie, and he has to pick from that list. Hopefully the Mike Gabbards on the world don't run the state party.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:23:40 PM PST

  •  PPP Michigan (13+ / 0-)

    PPP has tweeted that their new poll in Michigan will be out tomorrow.  They say Snyder trails every Democrat they tested against him.  

  •  Leahy second in line at Appropriations... (0+ / 0-)

    Harkin being third.  Leahy also chairs Judiciary Committee with Feinstein next in line there.  

    Does Leahy leave Judiciary to Feinstein or does Harkin get Appropriations.  

    The NRA is the Gun Manufacturer Lobby. Nothing more. Their pontification about the second amendment is nothing more than their ad jingle. They're the domestic version of the Military Industrial Complex.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:33:10 PM PST

    •  I think Leahy takes Appropriations (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Which then leaves Judiciary open.

      Here's the members there, by Seniority.

      Feinstein (I don't think she leaves Intelligence, that's sort of her issue and expertise)
      Schumer (could take it, but seems like a weird fit)
      Durbin (are leadership members able to chair committees?)
      Whitehouse (my personal choice)
      Klobuchar
      Franken
      Coons
      Blumenthal
      Hirono

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:38:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Whitehouse would be a great chair (0+ / 0-)

        but I think Schumer takes it. He is also Dem leadership, third in line, so I dont know if that prevents him from taking it.

        But I dont know that it would be a weird choice. I think two of his biggest issues are immigration reform and consumer issues. Judiciary chair would probably give him a platform to advance policy on both issues.

  •  I assume Colleen Hanabusa will replace (7+ / 0-)

    Inouye. I believe she was his favorite protégée.

    I've watched more CSPAN than anyone should ever have to. I've seen nearly every senator in that chamber get up and grandstand, shoot their mouths off, try to score partisan points, etc.. Inouye never did such things. It was all about Hawaii.

  •  HI-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Who will get sworn in first Hirono or Hanabusa? (assuming she's likely to be appointed)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 03:55:01 PM PST

  •  Tulsi Gabbard for Senate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack
    I dont think she'd be a bad choice, but Hanabusa wouldnt be happy. Seems like it would inevitably create a messy primary in 2014.
    •  Not a bad choice (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, jj32, itskevin, JBraden

      But she should commit to the office she was just elected to.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:18:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like Gabbard BUT (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, jj32, JBraden

      she JUST got elected to the house.  I think it is Hanabusa's turn.  It would be nice then to have Esther Kiaaina then won the 2nd congressional district primary -- she is a real liberal who would be awesome.

      27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

      by IndyLiberal on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:20:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Are we all missing the fact that (0+ / 0-)

        Hanabusa puts the Senate seat in play in 2014?  She has won her House seat by 3% and 10%, underperforming Obama in 2012 by a whopping 33%.  She is an absolutely unacceptable choice.

        Gabbard, on the other hand, somehow managed to overperform Obama in her open seat race in 2012.

        Just win, baby.  Anybody but Hanabusa.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:24:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hanabusa underperformed (8+ / 0-)

          Because Djou was literally the best candidate Hawaii Republicans had on the ballot in 2012, including Linda Lingle.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:27:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            He's a very good, personable candidate.

            Hanabusa did win her house seat "by 3%" but she did it by beating Djou who was the incumbent congressman. By defeating him, it was the first time an incumbent from Hawaii had lost.

            •  2012 Results (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              HI-01 - Hanabusa 55, Djou 45

              HI-02 - Gabbard 77, Crowley 19
              HI-Pres - Obama 70, Romney 28
              HI-Sen - Hirono 62, Lingle 37

              Djou may a fine candidate, but that cannot account for the entirety of the staggering differences between these results.  Hanabusa's popularity cannot be better than mediocre and result in these kind of numbers in a wildly Democratic year in Hawaii.  We are getting lost in sentimentality here.  She should not be the nominee in 2014 and should not be the interim Senator.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

              by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:58:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  And he will probably run for Senate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            and we should run literally the best candidate Hawaii Democrats have against him.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:42:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He'd have to wait 2 years to challenge her (0+ / 0-)

              He'd most likely run for the 1st CD for a fourth time, if he doesn't give up altogether.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:44:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Also, this district (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, JBraden

            is the more Republican of the two.

            •  Yeah it's like (0+ / 0-)

              R+18.  I feel like I've slipped into the Twilight Zone here.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

              by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:05:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  *D+18 (0+ / 0-)

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:05:40 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  The point is it's more Republican (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden

                than the state as a whole.

                •  D+20 vs. D+18 (0+ / 0-)

                  Without checking, I'm pretty sure Hanabusa's underperformance was the largest in the country.

                  White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                  by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:09:29 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Did she underperform, or did Djou overperform? (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    JBraden, Zack from the SFV

                    Beating incumbents in Hawaii is hard, it's a one party dominated state, but as a result the state party runs the gauntlet from conservative to liberal. The dominating bias is towards seniority and porking talents. She beat an incumbent Representative when it was clear she'd be in the minority party and have much less porking potential.

                    Again, she widened her margin this year against the strongest Republican in Hawaii, despite the fact she has no doubt remained powerless to deliver for her district as a freshman member of a party deep in the majority. That matters in Hawaii. You're taking this abstract measurement and appreciating the circumstances. I don't know that her performances have been weak at all.

                    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:21:20 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And, of course (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      JBraden, Zack from the SFV

                      as a Senator she will be a member of the majority party and might even be able to snag a nice spot on Appropriations.

                      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:22:11 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't buy this (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Xenocrypt, jncca

                      beating incumbents in Hawaii is hard business.  Hawaii just hasn't had that many politicians represent it.  Beating Democrats in the South was hard for over 100 years.  Now you can do it even if you're a doctor banging your patients and encouraging them to get abortions.

                      Hawaii has changed.  It is a very heavily Democratic state, moreso than ever.  It is virtually uncrackable for Republicans unless Colleen Hanabusa runs.

                      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                      by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:30:38 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  It was indeed (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    spiderdem, wwmiv, jncca

                    at least based on Obama's 2008 performance by district.  But given how well-correlated that is with 2012, and given the magnitude of the gap, I imagine she'd come out on "top" again (she under-performed the equation I had by 19 points--"runner-up" David Cicilline just under-performed by 14 points).

                    On the other hand--no, that doesn't mean she'd be an underdog or anything.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:10:08 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think she'd be the clear favorite to win (0+ / 0-)

                      but in a state like Hawaii, why not go with one of the many choices who would be prohibitive, near lock favorites?

                      And that's a big margin between first and second.  Horrific underperformance.  Colleen, you are the weakest link - in the entire country - goodbye.  

                      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                      by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:16:57 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The reason to go with Hanabusa would be (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen

                        some advantage she had outside of electoral politics, along with the presumption that any D would hold the seat, so what difference does the margin make?

                        I don't know what that would be, since I don't really know anything about her one way or the other.  But maximizing the D margin isn't necessarily the only concern Abercrombie might have.

                        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                        by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:19:36 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I see no value in maximizing the margin (0+ / 0-)

                          only in maximizing the percent odds of victory.  And if it's a difference between someone else having a 1% chance of defeat and Hanabusa having a 3% chance, I'll take someone else.  Hanabusa seems like a fine Democrat ideologically.  She has a little ethical baggage that I laid out elsewhere, but it doesn't seem overwhelming.  For whatever reason she has an unimpressive electoral track record, and there is just no reason to put a D+20 seat in the slightest bit of jeopardy unless the alternative were a horrible Conservadem.

                          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                          by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:26:07 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  But there's political skill, connections, etc. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            A lot more goes into "value to the state" (or however Abercrombie's thinking of it) than just ideology and electoral track record.

                            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                            by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:30:48 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  I'd say the only other possible "challenger" (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    spiderdem, wwmiv, jncca

                    to Hanabusa's status would be John Hernandez in CA-21 (since that's the only candidate "below" her on my list in a district where Obama is known to have significantly over-performed 2008, so far).  But I think it'd still be Hanabusa.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:16:05 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And that guy was an unfunded joke (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wwmiv

                      who ran one of the most comically poorly produced ads I have ever seen.  She outraised Djou.  Really astounding underperformance.  

                      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                      by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:20:06 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  Charles Djou (5+ / 0-)

          Weird things happen around him. Nonetheless, Hawaii is not going to passover Sen. Inouye personally chosen successor for a Republican. Besides, Republicans haven't even tried to spend NRSC or NRCC resources on Djou or Lingle in the past, so I doubt they'll start now. This smacks of smoke without fire.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:28:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  My recitation (0+ / 0-)

            of Hanabusa's last two election results (not to mention the three-way special she lost) is "smoke without fire?" Really?  

            I don't understand what comes over this place sometimes.  Why would we run someone who barely cracks double digits under ideal turnout conditions when we have perfectly good progressives in Hawaii who can win the state by 20-40?  It's nobody's "turn" and it's nobody's seat.  It is a vacant Senate seat.  Just win baby.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:47:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If all you cared about was winning... (5+ / 0-)

              Hanabusa did win those races. Who cares if the margin is 10 or 20 or 40? The Republican ceiling is hard and national Republicans aren't interested in contesting the race. It's not like it would be even a drain on resources. Inouye personally wrote a letter recommending her for the seat! I think Hanabusa could still easily hold this seat.

              In any case, if we can't even ascertain why she underperformed, it's irrational to rush to conclusions. If you look at the races, she has no known flaws or suspected flaws, the only thing different about those races in Djou, who was, lets keep in mind, an incumbent in one of those races, and that matters a lot in Hawaii.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:13:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't just care about winning. (0+ / 0-)

                It's just an expression.  I would take Hanabusa over Ed Case, for example.

                But she underperformed Obama by more than David Cicilline, John Tierney, or Jesse Jackson, Jr.  I don't think I'm that far out on a limb to suggest she's not a particularly strong candidate in Hawaii.  I don't know exactly what it is.  Maybe it's this stuff:

                When in the State Legislature, Hanabusa introduced a bill to offer tax credits of up to $75 million for development at Ko Olina Resort, a move she declared necessary to spur development for the Leeward area but which others saw as a reward for a close associate and political backer, Ko Olina developer Jeff Stone. In 2002 Hanabusa emerged as the leading advocate for legislation authorizing $75 million in tax credits for Stone's Ko Olina resort. When Governor Ben Cayetano vetoed the tax credit bill, Hanabusa took the unprecedented step of suing to overturn the veto.

                Within months, Hanabusa's then-fiancé John Souza received a preferential deal in purchasing one of Stone's homes in Ko Olina. In February 2005, less than two years after Souza bought the home, he sold it for a $421,000 profit, according to real estate records. Souza and Hanabusa, who were engaged at the time and married in 2008, then bought a $1 million home in another Ko Olina subdivision developed by Centex Homes of Texas.

                The Ko Olina tax-credit legislation, intended to promote development of a “world-class” aquarium at the resort, expired after plans for the aquarium were abandoned. Ko Olina Resort eventually returned the tax credit, but the Lingle Administration and Hanabusa disagreed on how to use the returned funds.

                While in Congress, Hanabusa was called a "loan shark" by the Center for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington for abusing her position to pay herself excessive interest payments to settling her campaign debt. Hanabusa's spokesperson stated these interest payments were merely repayment of a bank loan.

                The quote is from her Wikipedia page.  Whatever it is, I would rather run someone who hasn't pulled the least impressive margins of any major Hawaii politician in recent cycle and who wasn't the single biggest underperforming candidate in 2012.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:26:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  It's not fair to blame her for the three way loss (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, spiderdem, askew, JBraden

              Djou won with, what, 39% of the vote, with Dems splitting most of the rest of the votes.

              What I do worry about with Hanabusa going to the Senate is Djou running again for House in the special, and again winning with a plurality.

              •  I don't blame her for it. (0+ / 0-)

                But it happened and it sucked.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:32:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, that's my main worry (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  spiderdem

                  That Djou wins the House seat in a special again.

                  I think your points about Hanabusa's win are legitimate.

                  I'll admit I saw the result for HI-01 sometime after the election and thought it looked really bad as well.

                  On the other hand, I think some of the points above are valid too. Djou was a very strong candidate, stronger than Lingle, who had never won federal office and whose approvals probably faded in the last couple of years of her gubernatorial term.

                  One way to look at it, Hanabusa beat incumbent congressman Djou by 5% in 2010, and then expand the margin in 2012, her first re-election.

                  The other way, of course, is she only won re-election by 10 in a great year for HI Dems.

                  Would like to get more info on the race she won, to determine if she was a weak candidate or just facing a really good GOP opponent in her first re-election(usually one of the toughest ones).

                  •  Your nightmare scenario (0+ / 0-)

                    of Djou winning a jungle election in HI-01 persuades me that Hanabusa is the wrong choice more than anything I have argued on this thread.  Best point of all.

                    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                    by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:28:27 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  We could see a repeat of 2010 (0+ / 0-)

                      where Scott Brown and Charles Djou win special elections for Senate and House, respectively.

                      Or they could both decline and run for governor. Abercrombie's approvals werent great last I checked, and I dont know if he will run for re-election. I could see Djou going for the gov race.

                    •  I think Hawaii Dems... (0+ / 0-)

                      Need to be prepared for this possibility. Case will probably run no matter what; if Democrats don't want to see Case or Djou back in Congress, they need to field one (1) other candidate, a very strong figure with widespread support and name recognition who will be able to win election despite Case's presence in the race. Also, Democrats need to drop a fucking nuclear bomb on the Case candidacy before it gathers any pace. Now-Rep. Hanabusa would have won in the 2010 special election if Case had drawn just a few percentage points less.

                      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:37:20 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  Apples and oranges (6+ / 0-)

          Djou is the strongest candidate the Hawaii Republicans have. Gabbard defeated a homeless man.

          Also, Hanabusa won by 6 in 2010, not 3.

          •  I get it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            but a 48-point difference from Gabbard?  A 33-point difference from Obama?  A 15-point difference from Hirono in an open Senate race against the former Governor of Hawaii?  Come on.  I'm going to have to start making Bob Massie jokes about Djou if you folks keep this up.  

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:02:07 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  -- (0+ / 0-)

            LOL at "homeless handyman."

    •  Not gonna happen (6+ / 0-)

      Hawaii is a very "wait your turn" kind of place. Seniority is always respected. That's why Ed Case was told to get lost after he challenged Akaka in 2006 and he's now a pariah in the state democratic party.

      Gabbard just got elected and she's barely into her 30s. Hirono and Hanabusa may look young but they're both in their 60s. Gabbard will most likely get her turn down the line.

      •  They are both in their 60s? Wow, they look (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        like they are in their early 50s at most.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:36:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Asian women tend to look younger (0+ / 0-)

          and then go downhill very quickly, from my observations.  It's nearly impossible for an Asian woman to look anything between 50 and 70.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:28:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Brian Schatz. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      No question Tulsi Gabbard is a rising star. She beat Mufi almost as severely as King Kamehameha beat the former ruler of Oahu.

      Nevertheless, Collen Hanabusa will probably be picked. But from what I've read, Brian Schatz has been working the state hard, and would make a fine progressive senator. Could be wrong, as he was somewhat of an also ran in the '06 primary -- but he was running against both Hanabusa and Hirono in HI-02 that year.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:35:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All this speculation about Lt. Gov. Schatz... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        But aside from him getting his ass kicked in 2006, I haven't seen anything from him that says he wants to run for Congress. He's lieutenant governor of the state and heir apparent to the oldest governor in the country. I think he's comfortable in his current office rather than being the most junior minority legislator in a House of 435.

        Brickwood Galuteria, Stanley Chang, and Ikaika Anderson all seem like viable options to succeed Rep. Hanabusa in the House. I'm sure there are others.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:34:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Some more proof that Inoye really liked Hanabusa (7+ / 0-)

    and view her as his protege

    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/...

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:28:15 PM PST

  •  Nebraska vote results by CD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    Source

    CD1: Romney 152052, Obama 108082, Johnson 3847, Terry 762
    CD2: Romney  140976, Obama 121889, Johnson 3393, Terry 469
    CD3: Romney 182067, Obama 72110, Johnson 3869, Terry 1177

    57.4-40.8 in the first (Fortenberry won with 68.5%)
    52.85-45.7 in the second (Terry won with 51.1%)
    70.2-27.8 in the third (Smith won with 74%)

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 05:52:34 PM PST

  •  Hawai'i now has a chance (8+ / 0-)

    to send the nation's second all-female delegation to Congress, and the first all female Democratic one.

    •  Would also push the number of women senators to 21 (0+ / 0-)

      Next year. Maybe more, depending on who winds up running for Kerry's seat (assuming he's nominated).

      (Most likely not, of course - Carmen Ortiz, Niki Tsongas, and Martha Coakley are possibilities, but Capuano or Markey seem a lot more likely.)

  •  Quite a day to be away from phone and internet (0+ / 0-)

    access for most of the time.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:38:08 PM PST

  •  HI1 special election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    So that's where Brian Schatz could go if Hanabusa is appointed. Schatz represented a State House district in Honolulu (in-between Punahou and the National Memorial Cemetary of the Pacific, the map says). Schatz ran for Congress in 2006 in HI2, a district which included none of his house district, and he won 7%, finishing 6th.

    In 2012, Hanabusa ran about 3% ahead of her average in Schatz's old house district. Djou won the 17th/18th (eastern end of Oahu) along with Ewa Beach (40th) and the 36th.

    So if Schatz runs in the 1st, i'd imagine there'd be some people wanting him to be elected so they'd have a chance to become Lt. Governor. So it might be slightly neater than 2010.

    Or Ed Case could run v. Schatz.

    But Schatz's district is one district over from one of Ed Case's best districts (the 24th)

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 06:39:35 PM PST

    •  Maybe Stanley Chang? (0+ / 0-)

      I remember someone at SSP posting about him as an up-and-comer. Harvard-educated, young, progressive Honolulu city councillor.

      •  in a plurality special election with Djou (0+ / 0-)

        the Ds will have to stick together to get one guy over the 40-45ish that Djou could get.

        It'd be nifty if the Hawaii Legislature could amend the special election law for federal offices. Especially if they need to amend it to prevent a 2013 election.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:52:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  On balance, I think Scott's appointment is good (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, JGibson, bumiputera

    A couple things today:

    (1) First, R.I.P., Sen. Inouye. You were a hero to this country, and served your nation and your state honorably. One piece I read noted that with his death we can see the end of an era: the last WWII vet in the Senate is Frank Lautenberg, who may well retire in 2014.

    (2) Re: SC Senate. I agree with Jamelle Bouie: while I would obviously prefer a Democrat in that seat, the fact is anyone Gov. Haley appointed would vote nearly identically. If we're going to have an extremely conservative Republican, it is, on balance, better that he be African-American. We have zero black senators, and as someone who thinks diversity does matter, I think a black Republican senator is better than none at all.

  •  Delco Results (4+ / 0-)

    As noted upthread, you have to pay for results in Delco, PA and go there in person. I'm willing to drive but if it's super expensive I don't really want to pay for it all myself. Anyone want to split it?

    my email is coleastevens@gmail.com

    18, Dem, PA-07, Democratic Nominee for Ward Commissioner in Springfield (Delco) Ward 1

    by Cole Stevens on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 07:25:21 PM PST

  •  Re: Inouye: A Great Interview (2011) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32, KingofSpades

    Very nice interview, and well worth a read for those interested.

  •  holy crap (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    Obama won Elkton, OR, a city of 195 people in Douglas County, down there in Southern Oregon.  He won it 44-34, now those are votes, not percentages.  He lost Douglas County 34-62%.  I had no idea that little city was unlike the surrounding county.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:02:54 PM PST

  •  The turn over rate in the Senate is astonishing (6+ / 0-)

    when January rolls in almost half of the Senate will have served less than 6 years, including the incoming class, including Tim Scott and Colleen Hanabusa as designate-elects.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:58:41 PM PST

    •  No Kidding (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

      Let's just look at Bill Nelson as an example. Pending the departure of John Kerry from the Senate, Nelson will enter the next Congress with the 29th rank in seniority. He only just got re-elected to a third term. The last four election cycles have really shaken the chamber lose of much of its accrued collective seniority, whether it's through retirements, deaths, primary election losses, or general election losses. I think that's a much greater and more realistic threat to the traditions of the Senate than mere reforms to the filibuster as some conservative Senators would have you believe. Republicans are particular victims of this turnover; in the next Congress, they'll only have seven Senators that were elected before 1996. Even those Senators won't be around for much longer. Thad Cochran is fairly likely to retire in 2015, and Orrin Hatch has said he will retire in 2019 if he lives until then. For all we know, John McCain, Richard Shelby, and Chuck Grassley could all retire in 2017 as well, and who knows how Jim Inhofe and Mitch McConnell will be six years from now (they both seem to be lifers from their previous comments).

      All things considered, the Senate has lost a lot of its 600-pound gorillas, and I think that has almost as much to do with the calcification of the Senate as the abuse of the filibuster.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 09:33:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully, Sen. McConnell will lose... (0+ / 0-)

        And his desire to be a "lifer" will be irrelevant. Not that I'm holding my breath, but hey, he is the most unpopular senator in the country.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 11:50:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

eve

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