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8:14 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: County results are slowly trickling in at SSP Labs (a division of Daily Kos Elections), which gives us nine new districts today:

California (CA-09, CA-10, CA-23)
Florida (FL-02, FL-03)
Illinois (IL-11, IL-14)
Michigan (MI-05, MI-10)

In California, we see that Republican Ricky Gill had quite the (unsuccessful) uphill climb, seeing as Obama pulled almost 58 percent in CA-09. There were also quite a few Obama-Denham voters, given that Obama won CA-10 by more than 3 points.

In Illinois, with IL-11 results, the power of the Madiganmander has really shown through—Obama got between 57 and 58 percent in each of the four Dem pickups! The Michigan results are unsurprising, as the dropoff from 2008 remains clear.

Finally, we have results from FL-02 and FL-03. We'd been a bit skeptical of Al Lawson's chances against incumbent GOPer Steve Southerland: After all, what would a Romney-Lawson voter look like? We still may not know the answer to the question, but clearly there were a few, since Lawson outran Obama by about half a percentage point.

Perhaps more significantly, this allows us to happily close the books on Florida, which was a sizable endeavor. The Florida map splits 21 counties; few states that don't have a central precinct reporting system split more. That means we had to manually collect precinct-level data for each of these 21 counties, which is no easy task. (You can look at the various types of data upon which we relied by downloading this ZIP file.)

This brings us to 192 districts calculated (or 44 percent of the total). States continue to certify their results, and we plan to keep bringing you our calculations shortly thereafter.

9:19 AM PT: SC-Sen-B: In a major shocker, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday morning that South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint will resign in January to become head of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative DC think-tank. While DeMint had previously said he had no plans to seek a third term in 2016, he was only re-elected two years ago, so this news comes as a serious surprise, particularly since there had been no prior hints that he might bail.

DeMint had long fancied himself a conservative kingmaker, meddling in many Republican primaries by means of his outside activist organization, the Senate Conservatives Fund. That had often set him at odds with GOP leadership, who viewed the SCF in the same way they might view the Club for Growth: a group devoted to making it harder for more electable Republicans to win their party's nomination.

But the fact that DeMint was himself Senator rankled his fellow members of Congress even more, to the point that he had to promise he would stop trying to unseat incumbents—a promise he apparently broke earlier this year when SCF transferred $500,000 to the Club at the precise moment they were (successfully) trying to nuke Dick Lugar in Indiana.

Now DeMint will have a much freer hand to interfere in GOP internal politics as it suits him, though Heritage is surely not immune to political pressure either. Still, it's easy to imagine how this kind of free agency would appeal to DeMint. And the job may appeal to his pocketbook as well: The outgoing chief of the Heritage Foundation earns a cool $1 million a year. That's quite the upgrade for DeMint, whose $40,000 net worth made him one of the least-wealthy members of Congress.

So what happens next? First, GOP Gov. Nikki Haley will appoint a temporary replacement. That person will serve until 2014, when a special election for the final two years of DeMint's term will be held, to coincide with the state's regularly-scheduled general election. Of course, there will be a ton of scrambling over that appointment, and whoever gets tapped could very well face a competitive primary. Haley could also name a caretaker who promises not to seek election, which would instigate an even wilder free-for-all.

It's also important to note that South Carolina's other Senate seat is also up for re-election in 2014. There'd already been a lot of chatter about a possible GOP primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham, but now hopefuls will have to think about whether they want to go up a two-term senator (tougher) but for a six-year term (more rewarding), which is what a run against Graham would involve. If they go for DeMint seat, it would mean facing an appointee (easier) or perhaps an open seat (easiest of all) but for a two-year term (obviously less rewarding) which would then require them to run for a full six-year term just two years later (in 2016, when the seat would ordinarily be up).

Some observers think DeMint's move might save Graham's bacon because would-be senate candidates will find the former race more appealing than the latter, but that's no sure thing. And if a ton of big names start piling into the DeMint seat, other folks might opt for Graham as an easier route.

In the meantime, all eyes will be on Haley—and as we've seen in recent years, Senate succession drama can be intense indeed. (Just think about New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois, for instance. Hell, one governor wound up getting impeached as a direct result of the appointment mess!) The State suggests she could tap Rep. Tim Scott (SC-01), who just won a second term last month. Scott is apparently DeMint's preferred choice, and he'd become the only African American in the Senate. Other possibilities include Reps. Mick Mulvaney (SC-05) and Trey Gowdy (SC-04), who were also both first elected in 2010. (And if Haley taps a member of the House, that'll trigger another special election in turn.)

Other possibilities, according to the paper, include naming someone like former state AG Henry McMaster as a placeholder, or, even more intriguing, Haley resigning and having Lt. Gov. Glenn McConnell appoint her to the seat. The State makes that possibility sound unlikely, but Democrats may find themselves rooting for it, since governors who appoint themselves to the Senate have historically performed very poorly when seeking election. (Indeed, only one of the nine who've done this has subsequently won at the ballot box: Kentucky's Happy Chandler, in the early '40s.)

Needless to say, no matter how you slice it, this is some seriously major news—and as always, we'll be following further developments very closely indeed.

(P.S. One housekeeping note: From this point forward, we'll be referring to the Graham race as "SC-Sen-A" and the DeMint race as "SC-Sen-B.")

10:13 AM PT: LA-Sen: In a new piece on the Louisiana Senate race, Roll Call's Joshua Miller talks with a few different analysts and locals who confirm that Rep. Bill Cassidy (LA-06) remains the establishment choice to take on Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu. But he may not clear the field: Cassidy's office isn't saying anything, but an unnamed aide to Rep. John Fleming (LA-04) says that he's considering a Senate run himself. And yet another congressman, Jeff Landry, could also make a bid, whether he wins or loses the LA-03 runoff on Saturday.

Speaking of runoffs, though, that's exactly what Republicans have to contend with in the Landrieu race as well. If two or more legitimate GOP candidates get in, then there's almost no way that Landrieu can be defeated in the first round, since a runoff can only be avoided if one person gets over 50 percent of the vote. And since Democrats will, of course, rally around their senator, Landrieu is all but guaranteed a spot in the second round. (After all, Obama did manage to get 41 percent here—a slight improvement, actually, from the 40 he took in 2008.)

But while Dems would love to see Republicans beat the hell out of each other and emerge wounded in Nov. 2014 with just a month-long sprint to the runoff, a low-turnout affair would seem to benefit them. However, in 2002, the GOP found itself in very much that position and salivated at the prospect of knocking off Landrieu that December. Indeed, Republican operatives reportedly called the race "Operation Icing on the Cake," after they'd walloped Democrats in the November mid-terms. But Landrieu proved to be a very adept campaigner and defeated state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell 52-48, so I definitely would not count her out.

10:30 AM PT: IL-02: In the previous Digest, we mentioned that state Sen. Donne Trotter, a candidate in the Democratic primary to replace ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., was—remarkably—arrested at O'Hare Airport when he tried to bring a gun and bullets through security. Trotter is now explaining that he had forgotten he'd placed the weapon and ammunition in his bag after working late at his other job... as a security guard. Now, I know most state legislators work part-time and often hold down other jobs, but I'm a little surprised to hear that a well-connected state senator running for Congress moonlights as an armed guard.

10:34 AM PT: NE-Gov: Wow: State House Speaker Mike Flood is ending his (very brief) campaign for governor because his wife was just diagnosed with breast cancer. Flood was set for a bruising fight in the GOP primary with Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy, so now it remains to be seen whether anyone else will come forward, or whether Sheehy will have a clear path to the nomination. (Current Gov. Dave Heineman is term-limited out and has endorsed Sheehy.)

12:06 PM PT: MI-Gov: With GOP Gov. Rick Snyder pushing ahead with plans to institute anti-worker and anti-union "right-to-work" laws in Michigan, one prominent Democrat is stepping up to confront him: Rep. Gary Peters. Ordinarily, it wouldn't be news when a Dem goes after a Republican on legislative matters, but Snyder is, of course, dealing with a state matter and Peters is a federal official, so it's a bit notable that Peters is sticking his neck out on this one. Says Peters: "[W]e will never stop fighting against this unprecedented and reckless action by Gov. Snyder."

Earlier this year, Peters prevailed in a member-vs.-member primary against fellow Rep. Hansen Clarke; thanks to redistricting, Peters' old 9th District seat was mostly eviscerated, making the 14th his best bet. Peters won a convincing victory, taking 47 percent in a crowded five-way field to Clarke's 35—all the more noteworthy since the 14th is a majority-black district and Peters is white (Clarke is African-American). Peters did run statewide once before, losing the 2002 AG contest by an agonizing 0.17 percent after getting termed out of the state Senate. But with three successful House campaigns now under his belt, he may be ready to move up to the governor's race.

12:22 PM PT: P.S. A new EPIC-MRA poll (PDF) has some of the best numbers for Snyder he's seen in a long time. His 55-32 favorability rating is by far the highest he's seen in over a year. He does, however, have a big gap between his personal favorables and his job approval score, which stands at just 45-53. But that, too, is Snyder's best tally in quite some time.

12:38 PM PT: P.S. The Hotline's Julie Sobel has a good roundup of who's in, who's out, and who's still considering a run. The filing deadline is in early January, but we've already heard from most of the likely contenders, though a handful of potentials still remain.

12:51 PM PT: KY-Gov: Dem AG Jack Conway confirms in a new interview that he's considering a possible gubernatorial run 2015, but he also added that he's probably not interested in joining someone else's ticket as LG. Of course, you have to say that if you want to be taken seriously, but local reporter Ryan Alessi points out that former Auditor Crit Luallen, a Conway ally, is also looking at a bid, and Conway, just 43, could conceivably serve as her second fiddle.

State Auditor Adam Edelen says that he, too, is weighing a run for governor, though he's even younger than Conway (38) and is only serving his first term in office. It also sounds like Edelen is not interested in challenged GOP Rep.-elect Andy Barr in KY-06, though he suggested SoS Allison Lunderan Grimes as a possible candidate. Considering that Grimes is a potential statewide rival, though, I'd guess Edelen would be happy to see her pursue a Congressional bid instead.

12:51 PM PT (David Jarman): Maps: I've seen lots of visualizations of the 2012 election results, but this may be my favorite one, from Princeton Prof. Robert Vanderbei; by using 3-D imaging and combining it with a scaled red/blue percentage, he's managed to find a way to show the impact of density (something that's missing from most maps) while still preserving the shape of the country and the ability to identify particular counties (which is missing from cartograms). Plus, it just looks cool, with the smallest, densest counties forming giant blue skyscrapers towering over the rest of the country. (Though it's still not perfect, as, thanks to a trick-of-the-eye, it still seems to overstate the importance of geographically-tiny places like San Francisco and Denver while understating the importance of physically-large counties with huge vote counts, like Los Angeles and Miami-Dade.)

1:05 PM PT: ME-Gov: GOP Gov. Paul LePage has always had a serious temper, but now he really seems like he's losing it. At a swearing-in ceremony for members of the legislature on Wednesday, LePage went out of his way to spazz about a tracker the Democratic Party has hired to record him at public events. These weren't some off-the-cuff remarks to reporters milling about afterward, mind you—LePage directly brought this up in his speech:

"I'm very distinguished. I've been honored to have a private paparazzi paid for by the Democratic Party," LePage said before swearing in the new Senate, joking that the party should have hired a Mainer — rather than someone from Massachusetts — for the job.

"I think it's vulgar, I think it's vicious, and I think it's vile to me and my family," he said. "I say that to you, for the lack of respect that the office of the governor of the state of Maine is receiving. Having said that, we have to go to work. I want to work with each and every one of you."

Afterwards, several Republican lawmakers openly criticized LePage on the record for marring the day with this kind of petty grousing—and for potentially alienating allies. (Democrats just retook both chambers last month.)

While we're on the topic, local Republican analyst Dan Demeritt says that ex-Gov. John Baldacci is considering a comeback bid, but only if Reps. Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree both pass on the race. Baldacci was never terribly popular, winning re-election in 2006 with just 38 percent of the vote in a typical Maine three-way contest, but after Michaud and Pingree, he probably has the highest name recognition of any Democrat in the state.

1:46 PM PT: VA-LG: State Sen. Ralph Northam became the second Democrat to make a bid for Virginia's lieutenant governorship on Thursday, joining former White House Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra. (The seat is open because the current LG, Republican Bill Bolling, isn't seeking re-election.) A huge pile of Republicans are also already in the race; thankfully, the Washington Post has a roundup of all the names:

Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, a former delegate and state senator; Del. L. Scott Lingamfelter of Prince William; state Sen. Stephen H. Martin of Chesterfield; Pete Snyder, a technology entrepreneur and former Fox news commentator; Corey A. Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors; Susan Stimpson, chairwoman of the Stafford County Board of Supervisors; and E.W. Jackson, a Chesapeake minister who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination in this year’s U.S. Senate race.
The post is unusually important at this juncture in Virginia politics: The state Senate is currently split 20-20 between Republicans and Democrats, and the LG gets to break ties. Bolling cast a record 28 tie-breaking votes in the last session, and since senators aren't up for re-election until 2015, if Democrats can win this seat, they'd also take back the Senate.

2:06 PM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Gov: PolitickerNJ has a remarkably detailed article on what seems like, on the surface, should be a pretty simple proposition: a Democratic gubernatorial primary between South Jersey-based state Senate president Steve Sweeney and North Jersey-based former state Senate president (and one-time acting Gov.) Richard Codey. It painstakingly goes through all their legislative allies and their standing with various county-level machine players. It's pretty cliche to turn anything Jersey-related into a Sopranos reference, but it really feels like a look at the feltboard with the photos and strings tacked to it, showing the flowcharts of the feuding families.


2:20 PM PT: Some South Carolina updates from later in the day on Thursday:

• Haley says she will not appoint herself.

• The Atlantic's Molly Ball says an unnamed source tells her AG Henry McMaster is not interested in a caretaker appointment.

• A nameless South Carolina Republican tells TPM that Haley is considering Chad Walldorf as a possible placeholder. Walldorf is the founder of Sticky Fingers, a regional chain of barbecue restaurants.

• The Hotline's Reid Wilson runs through a long list of names of potential appointees, though all of these folks could also conceivably run in 2014 as well: state Rep. Nathan Ballentine (a Haley confidante), ex-Rep. Gresham Barrett (an establishment type who lost to Haley in the 2010 GOP primary, getting smoked in the runoff), Rep. Joe Wilson (of "you lie!") infamy), AG Alan Wilson (his son), David Wilkins (a major Republican fundraiser and Dubya's ambassador to Canada), former state party chair Katon Dawson, and Haley's deputy chief of staff Tedd Pitts.

• Dawson confirmed his interest to The Hill, and another Haley ally, state Rep. Ralph Norman, also says he'd like the job.

• Wilson adds that Rep. Tim Scott, supposedly DeMint's favorite, is apparently more interested in becoming governor some day. (Through a spokesman, DeMint denies pushing for anyone.) It's also worth noting that Scott was just named to a seat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee; last week, Arkansas Rep. Tim Griffin cited that very same thing as a reason why he won't run for Senate, so maybe that's on Scott's mind, too.

USA Today (I know, right?) adds two more names: state Sen. Tom Davis and Treasurer Curtis Loftis. Davis has been publicly mulling a run against Lindsey Graham.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So how does SC fill Senate vacancies? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Zack from the SFV

    Subquestion: is there any chance that Tim Scott is not DeMint's replacement?

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:04:14 AM PST

  •  DeMint leaving current Sen implications... (5+ / 0-)

    He saw his power greatly diminished and likely saw GOP more likely to work with Dems now that defeating Pres Obama is not prime objective.  He'll be replaced by an equally far right nutter, but this new nutter will not have the power that DeMint wielded.

    Lindsay Graham has to be happy as well, because both SC Senate seats will now be up in 2014 - it greatly increases his chances of holding on now.  

    Though there is still more benefit to taking on Graham in the primary as his seat is a full 6 yr gig whereas the DeMint seat would be up again in 2016.  There will be an incumbent, as Gov Haley will name DeMint's replacement for the next two years, but it will be unelected.  

    I think DeMint plans on running for President in 2016 from his new post.  He'll build crazy Conservative support the next two years, mean all the right financial power brokers and build up a huge war chest.  

    Good for Dems in that he's going to stay on the far right, no chance of moderation on social or fiscal issues - can he keep the party out there with him?   He's be the Tea Party/Conservative candidate in 2016 while all others will seemingly try to be the moderates (Rubio, Ryan, Christie, Bush etc).  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:09:31 AM PST

    •  ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vatexia, MichaelNY

      DeMint is not running for President. He'll likely be a key endorsement, however, and this just bolsters him further in that regard.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:12:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not so sure (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        I could see him step back and do his right wing think tank thing for a couple of years, and then run for President.  We'll know if he visits Iowa any time in the next year!

      •  As the head of a 501(c)(3) ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... that stuff gets tricky.  See this Individual Activity by Organization Leaders set of hypos from the IRS, such as:

        Example 5: Minister C is the minister of Church L, a section 501(c)(3) organization and Minister C is well known in the community.  Three weeks before the election, he attends a press conference at Candidate V’s campaign headquarters and states that Candidate V should be reelected.  Minister C does not say he is speaking on behalf of Church L.  His endorsement is reported on the front page of the local newspaper and he is identified in the article as the minister of Church L.  Because Minister C did not make the endorsement at an official church function, in an official church publication or otherwise use the church’s assets, and did not state that he was speaking as a representative of Church L, his actions do not constitute campaign intervention by Church L.
    •  How does this affect Graham? (0+ / 0-)

      If anything, wouldn't this make some sort of shanking more likely, given that DeMint doesn't have to answer to his colleagues, Graham in particular?

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:47:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  To an extent, yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I would think this would take some of the pressure off of Graham either way.  If Haley's appointment is simply a placeholder who doesn't run for election, then it seems likely that whoever thought about primarying Graham may just jump over to that race, since it'd probably be easier to get the nomination.

        And even if the appointee DOES run, if I wanted to run in the primary I'd much rather run against an unelected incumbent than one who's been elected to that seat twice already.

        •  Just to toss out an idea, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          might this motivate more people to take a look at the Senate in South Carolina? There are now two races, of course, and while Graham is a long-serving incumbent, DeMint's replacement won't be. I'm not sure if there was talk of someone like Tim Scott trying to primary Graham, or anyone else instead, but if there are two opportunities, might the more seasoned challenger try his luck at Graham with the other person trying to primary whomever replaces DeMint?

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:31:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Scott (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is DeMint's preferred replacement, apparently.  And as others have pointed out, that seems fairly likely to happen since the GOP would love to have the only black senator.

            I'd be more curious to see if this leads to more Democrats trying for DeMint's former seat than for Graham's.

            •  Lucky Lindsey (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Ms. Graham will get doubly lucky if Scott gets appointed, to go along with his luck that DeMint is bowing out now. The second seat will draw by far the most challengers. Here's why...

              1) Obviously, it'd be easier to primary someone who wasn't elected.
              2) If Scott gets appointed, he'd have a giant target on his back. Since basically all of the other conservative ideologues in South Carolina who aren't Scott are white, well....let's say you're a white South Carolina conservative ideologue... who would you want to face in a Republican primary: the black guy who "got appointed to a seat he doesn't deserve just because of his race" or a proven statewide-vote-winning white guy?

              Whether Scott is the placeholder or not, if he runs I'm guessing he'd have a tough fight in both the primary and the general.

              Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

              by arealmc on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:30:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Reading Redstate so you don't have to! (21+ / 0-)

    So, I paid cyber-visit a few minutes ago to Wingnutia, to see what they were saying about Senator DeMint's stepping down.  Erick Erickson's article is in a nutshell an example of why his analytical skills are somewhere between Dick Morris and Drunk Monkey.

    First, he has to tell us that he knew about this news before it broke.  I swear Erickson still bears the scars of probably being the fat kid in 4th grade who was picked last for kickball one too many times.  Since he crashed and burned as Rick Perry's kingmaker, he never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how important he is.

    He goes on to say that DeMint and the hard right is responsible for electing Senators Toomey, Paul, Rubio and others.  But the problem is he left a few off the list.  They are also responsible for Senators Reid, McCaskill, Donnelly, Coons, Bennett.

    Finally, my favorite part is towards the end of the article, he says it probably is a good thing DeMint is leaving the Senate, because he is so awesome and God-like that other conservatives will never get a chance to stand in the spotlight with him there.  I'm not kidding.

  •  Demint leaving Congress! (0+ / 0-)

    Link

    What are the rules for Senate appointment in South Carolina? Will the special election be in the 2014 general election or earlier? With two Senate races and a vulnerable Governor, South Carolina should be a prime target for the Democrats.

    Unfortunately, this may decrease the likelihood that Lindsey Graham gets a primary challenge since most of the bigger names will probably jump into the other race.

    •  South Carolina has so many robot voters that I (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      doubt a democrat could win even if Graham lost to a teabagger.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:15:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This would be an uphill battle (5+ / 0-)

      but not an unwinnable one, under the circumstances.  It's a case where the GOP would start out with an advantage, but the right situation--GOP infighting, gaffes, poor candidate choice--could give Dems a pickup opportunity.

      It is necessary, then, that Democrats pick a competent candidate who can make a decent case for themselves and take advantage of any GOP weakness.  The SC Dem bench is pretty thin, but there must be at least some such candidates there willing to run.  No more Alvin Greenes!

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:25:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the big question is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Who are our contenders?

        If Shaheen runs for gov, perhaps we could run some of our previous statewides
        Inez Tenenbaum, Jim Rex, or Grady Patterson

        In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

        by lordpet8 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:28:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I posted the PVIs for the other districts last night when the data first become available.

    FL-2 is R+6 from R+2
    FL-3 is R+14 from R+12

    I don't think that FL-2 is a legitimate pick-up opportunity anymore even with a conservative white Democrat. Al Lawson certainly performed in line with expectations, only outperforming the President by .21%.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:21:42 AM PST

  •  Why a Democrat could win a SC senate seat (9+ / 0-)

    2012 Presidential Results

    SC 55 R - 44 O

    States that elected Democratic senators in 2012:
    IN   54 R - 44 O
    MO 54 R - 44 O
    MT  55 R - 42 O
    ND  58 R - 39 O

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Democrats need strong candidates - no Alvin Greene's. You never know when the inevitable Teapublican will stick his foot in his mouth.

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:24:51 AM PST

    •  True, but ... (9+ / 0-)

      .... that means we'd either have to have a popular incumbent like Tester, a fantastic candidate like Heitkamp, or a right wing lunatic that comes down on the wrong side of the rape issue!

    •  all of those states are more open to voting (10+ / 0-)

      for Democrats.  In South Carolina we'd have to move some very immobile white voters.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:33:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably easier for an in-state candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        that, well, might be white.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:53:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  right (6+ / 0-)

        All those states have a lot of swing voters, and SC has very few. In ND the Dem floor is about 10 and the ceiling is about 70. In SC the floor is about 35 (Alvin Greene and the Green put together got 37) and the ceiling about 50.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 09:52:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  10 and 70? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          That seems wildly low and wildly high. There have been state-wide races in ND with the Democratic candidate getting as little or as much as that? Which ones?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:29:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  10 and 70 (5+ / 0-)

            In 2010, Hoeven beat Tracy Potter 76-22 for the Senate seat. Potter wasn't a bad candidate, as a sitting state senator with a decent record. If Dems had run a whodat, they could have gone as low as 15 or even 10.

            Byron Dorgan got 68% in his Senate race in 2004 even while Bush got 63% in the state, and Kent Conrad got 69% in his race in 2006.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:49:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  SC Dem floor is 43-44% (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, MichaelNY

          Alvin Greene is mentally retarded- literally.  You can't use him as an example.  Many Dems probably undervoted that one, I think I did, as I recall.

          Look at the last 10 years, minus Alvin Greene and the D floor is 43-44%.  

          As for midterms, the last D Governor was elected in a midterm and he brought a couple of others with him (statewide winners, that  is).

          A decent D candidate with a respectable funding will get a minimum of 45%.   All you need is another 5%, and there ARE independents here, and the D turnout can be maximized even in a midterm.

          Grady Patterson is too old and Jim Rex is not the caliber needed.  Tenebaum is a good option as are Joe Erwin, Darla Moore, a couple of mayors, and I'm sure there are some other businessmen besides Erwin.

      •  We'd need a perfect storm (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bear83, MichaelNY

        R's need to run a crazy candidate (crazy even for SC standards)

        We'd need to runner a stellar Dem candidate with very good favorables. Someone who not only turnout the AA vote but reawaken many of the old school ancestral Dems back into the party.

        In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

        by lordpet8 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:37:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe one of each? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          One candidate that would appeal more to black voters and the base to bring them to the polls, and one to appeal to white moderates (the one who would actually have a shot at winning)?

          How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:14:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Problem is they don't have one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      As far as I know.  And haven't had one since Fritz Hollings.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:33:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hollings was impressive (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        He held on longer than most expected.

        We could try running some of the statewids candidates, I listed above

        In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

        by lordpet8 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:39:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Also, that might reflect unusual (5+ / 0-)

      black turnout for Obama (not as much of a factor in the comparable states) rather than a general political lean.   But who knows.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:47:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Black Turnout (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, lordpet8, aggou, MichaelNY

      SC has a substantial black population, turnout will lower drastically during a non Obama midterm.

    •  SC is a state where Dems have a high floor (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, KingTag, kman23, DCCyclone

      but it's pretty close to their ceiling. Ignoring the Alvin Greene debacle, the Democrats have done pretty consistently over the past decade:

      2012 - Pres 44.1%
      2010 - Gov 46.9%
      2008 - Pres 44.9%, Sen 42.3%
      2006 - Gov 44.8%
      2004 - Pres 40.9%, Sen 44.1%
      2002 - Gov 47.1%, Sen 44.2%
      2000 - Pres 40.9%

      Which comes out to a mean of 44.0% and a median of 44.2%. It will take an exceptional set of circumstances to get to 50.1%.

    •  We have no bench in SC (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Indiana and Montana, even as conservative as they are, still have had enough Democratic success to provide a good bench.  As bad a shape as Indiana Dems are in now, that's actually extremely recent and they still had plenty of good candidates.  After all, we had good candidates in the last two Senate races, unfortunately the first of those was a GOP wave year and a split field of teabaggers allowed Coats to slip through in the GOP primary.  In Montana, there has been surprising Democratic success, still continuing, to provide a good bench.

      Missouri, we had an incumbent who ratfucked the GOP in a state trending away from us...McCaskill's upcoming 6-year term could very well be the last for a Democrat there for the indefinite future.

      And in ND, we caught lightning in a bottle, Heitkamp was the only candidate we had with any chance to win, and she was successfully recruited and then pulled it off.

      All this contrasts to SC, where we have no bench.  The state Dems did extremely well to get a good candidate for SC-Gov last time and probably next year, but that's unusual for them, they have no one else.

      SC eventually will become competitive again, but more slowly than Georgia, it will be sometime in the 2020s before I think we can compete in SC.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 07:49:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We don't have "no" bench in SC (3+ / 0-)

        We don't have much of a bench when it comes to Democrats with statewide potential, which I imagine was the thrust of your comment anyway.

        But within the last 15 years we have had a few statewide officeholders:

        Jim Hodges, Governor 1999-2003 (age 56)
        Inez Tenenbaum, state Superintendent (61)
        Jim Rex, also Superintendent (71)

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:09:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If we have to have a Republican (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I would prefer J. Gresham Barrett, he'd be reasonable in the Graham mold.

      But obviously, he likely can't survive a primary.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:05:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does DeMint become 2016 GOP front runner? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson

    I mean he'll lock down all the tea party/far right money and backing from the powerbrokers over the next 2-3 years, meet all the right people, attend the right parties.  He'll essentially clear the far right field leaving Bush, Christie, Rubio, Ryan to fight it out for the more moderate votes.  He probably saw how Cain, Santorum, Newt all led at various times and that shows there is a far right base still there, but they had crud candidates representing them and no money.  

    Could we see a DeMint/Walker ticket in 2016?

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:25:29 AM PST

    •  He'd be at best the next Gingrich (3+ / 0-)

      but without the marital issues. I just don't see how he's any stronger than Newt in other regards.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:48:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  How much would DeMint pander to the right? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There's no doubt he's an extremely conservative man ideologically, but is he willing to embrace birther-like nonsense, when he hasn't in the past?

      People like Gingrich and Cain were jokes for various reasons, but chief among them was their ability to adopt any criticism against Obama, no matter how ridiculous. If DeMint wants to be president and is willing to stick to criticize Obama on the issues, perhaps his candidacy might not flame out. That's not to say that he'd win the nomination so easily or even necessarily win the general, only that he would be portrayed as a legitimate if extremely conservative contender.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 09:07:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  LOL, it's not pandering from DeMint! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        What's pandering coming from others is just Jim DeMint speaking his mind!

        No he hasn't parroted in public every last racist wingnut conspiracy theory, but that doesn't mean he doesn't in private, and wouldn't in public if asked.

        But he won't be the nominee, or even be competitive, against a decent field as the GOP will have in '16.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 07:52:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's a difference between (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          talking about conspiracy theories and embracing right-wing ideology. All will do the latter, but not all will necessary do the former, if it's necessary in the future. DeMint didn't really do it when it wouldn't have cost him anything a few years ago, so perhaps he wouldn't do it in the future.

          I don't think he'd really get very far in presidential politics, but I wonder if, among a few big reasons, that might be because he's just not willing to take that extra step into insanity.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:05:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Demint is not wealthy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and to his credit is still "important".  He doesn't have the wealth to run for President.

      He's simply chosen a more logical way to be "important", one where he can impulse buy stuff at the Quickie Mart more often.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:19:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-23 data (0+ / 0-)

    where did this CA-23 data come from?

  •  Does DeMint's retirement (5+ / 0-)

    mean that it makes more sense for us to contest what will now be two races that year?

    Republican candidates and the year aside(more on that in a moment), don't we get enormous efficiencies due to the scale, essentially as if it were a two-for-one-deal? Each candidate has to be elected separately, of course, and there's no guarantee at all both will be in the same league. But any sort of chance to win outside of some unusual circumstance will require a lot of on-the-ground work. Unlike some, I think this would have been a good investment regardless, but particularly because it's one of our better opportunities that year. Now, though, all of that is doubled. The eventual candidates we face might change the calculation, but on a very basic level, winning in South Carolina is not all that different than winning in Georgia, except that we can support two candidates at the same time without spending as if we were contesting a separate state.

    It might be a less attractive opportunity if we would face an exceptionally strong candidate and/or it's a bad year, but at this point, none of that is clear. Maybe this is my relentless optimism clouding my judgement, but I think this state just became a lot more attractive for us.

    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

    by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:42:48 AM PST

  •  CNN saying Demint wants Tim Scott as (11+ / 0-)

    his replacement.

    PPP pushes back on the notion that Demint resigning is good news for Graham.

    I think that's a fair analysis. Also, this could hurt Graham because Demint is no longer in the Senate and will have no restriction in criticizing Graham if he votes for comprehensive immigration reform or anything that looks like a tax hike. Plus, he now has a national conservative platform to support a primary challenge if he wants.
    •  Tim Scott (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, kman23, MichaelNY, arealmc

      Might also be easy to beat, and I hate to put it this way because it is truly awful, because he's not white. We've seen how South Carolina behaves when Republicans nominate a non-white candidate. Haley only beat her white opponent in one of the best years for her party ever by a few points.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 09:00:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's certainly a possibility. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Is this an easy thing to poll, though, i.e. "Would you prefer Nick Shaheen, the white Democrat, or Tim Scott, the black Republican?" If so, perhaps we'll get a better idea of how people would react soon.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 09:03:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think a lot of that was Stanford ties. (6+ / 0-)

        I'm not saying race didn't hurt, but I don't think it was a major impact. Maybe 2-3 points tops. Our guy did run a great race.

      •  But Scott already debunked your argument... (7+ / 0-)

        ...by winning a conservative white Congressional seat representing 20% of the state.

        I wrote about this earlier this week in a comment on another issue, about how there are crossing tribal rivalries in American society, and Tim Scott is an instance where racial tribalism is defeated by ideological and partisan tribalism.  Since Scott is willing and able to identify as a far right crazy lunatic, he is accepted without reservations by the very white racists who hate Obama significantly because Obama is black.  The point is that racism is complicated, it's a form of tribalism that can at times be overcome by other things.

        It's not that white racists don't realize Scott is black, but because they accept him as "one of them" on other grounds, they are willing to embrace him, and because they realize he's black and useful as a shield, they're happy to put him on a pedastal.

        This is why he's talked up so heavily right now.

        For us, he'd be a nuisance as a Senator, but not much more.  That we elected a black President with a far more culturally uncommon background than merely being black is a pretty big trump card......people of color aren't going to be impressed by Scott.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:00:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It doesn't matter what Demint thinks, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt, MichaelNY

      there needs to be some type of immigration reform. Sooner, rather than later.

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:09:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure if b) is that compelling for SC (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh, kman23, DCCyclone

      Sure, it's "only" a 2-year term, but it's not like whoever wins in 2014 (if it's a Republican) won't be completely safe in 2016.

      •  I think Dalek Sec is completely right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It would be a nuisance to have to run again 2 years later, but not that big a deal.  The only real fear would be another contested primary if the 2014 winner gets teabagged, but then the 2014 GOP primary winner in a state as conservative as SC probably is going to be a teabagger in the first place.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:02:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  All of this South Carolina talk... (7+ / 0-)

    Would be easier if Democrats had more of a bench. There's Vincent Sheheen, but he's hinted he'll run for governor. If Gov. Haley appoints herself to Sen. DeMint's seat, maybe he'll follow her to that race; the enmity between them seems personal.

    Rob Miller, who made Rep. Joe Wilson sweat a little in 2010, could run for something. But I generally frown on unsuccessful House candidates "falling up" into Senate races.

    Call me crazy, but judging from his website, I think Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin doesn't see his current job as the apex of his career. Website here. I don't know much about him other than that he stood in line for four hours to vote on Election Day last month. I'm not at all sure that South Carolina is ready to elect a black Democrat to statewide office, so he may be hoping Rep. Clyburn (who is 72) retires soon.

    There are a few state legislators who, on paper, look potentially viable -- retired Brig. Gen. Phil Leventis first among them. Leventis is 67, though, and will be 69 by 2014. South Carolinians might be more willing to vote for a Democrat if they think he'll serve just one term, but aside from that, it's a point against Leventis.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 09:52:34 AM PST

    •  What about your pal, Dick Harpootlian? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      Seriously now, what personal tension is there between Haley and Shaheen? I have to wonder if his desire for the governor's mansion is lessened by the fact that there's now a senate seat where he won't be going up against an incumbent. Not that this is the biggest difference in the world, but it probably helps.

      A brief scan of Ballotpedia tells me that while Republicans have big majorities in the state legislature, there are still a lot of Democrats in absolute terms. I'm not sure if any of them would make good statewide candidates, though.

      Also, given that there are no huge cities in the state, with the biggest being Columbia at all of 130,000 people, perhaps it's not that important to have someone seemingly significant in scale.  Aside from the state legislature, there are a ton of small time Democrats, as you can see here. I assume we aren't going to get a Cynthia McKinney/Alvin Green-type unless we absolutely shit the bed, so if one of these people is ideologically appropriate and willing to campaign like it's his or her last hurrah, I'm ready to go. It also might not be the worst idea in the world to look for an outsider--a small businessman or something--who doesn't have a record.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:12:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is it wrong for me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem

      to dream about Stephen Colbert running for one of the seats?

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:08:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I mentioned him upthread (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But there's also Jim Hodges, who was the last Democratic Governor of SC, he's only 56.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:18:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Stu Rothenberg gives us a shout out!! (5+ / 0-)

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:24:37 AM PST

  •  Get the popcorn ready? (11+ / 0-)
  •  AZ-LD-18: Results. (7+ / 0-)

    I had mentioned three districts as key to the legislature.  One was AZ-LD-18, covering South Tempe, some of the outskirts of Phoenix, and some of Chandler and Mesa.  It got a lot of attention and spending, but Republican incumbent John McComish won by about 6 points over challenger Janie Hydrick.

    From Maricopa's precinct-level results, I can see Obama lost the two-party vote 49/51, about the same as last time.  (No surprise, since McCain's home state boost was probably about the size of Romney's general improvement over McCain.)

    Unsurprisingly, the races were highly correlated.  With just one exception, Hydrick won every precinct where Obama got at least 52% of the two-party vote, but lost every other precinct.  She only lost the exception precinct, Western Star, by 3 votes.  (Obama won it 55.5/44.5, by about 250 votes.)

    From a precinct map, it seems like Obama and Hydrick both did best in the northern part of the district, which is presumably closer to central Tempe.

    Since DRA doesn't have the new precincts, I don't think, here is a primitive drawing.  Yellow is the exception, red is Romney/McComish, light blue is Obama/McComish, dark blue is Obama/Hydrick:

    I'm somewhat curious what accounts for the relatively Democratic areas in the southern part of the district.  It's somewhat more nonwhite.  The skinny and southernmost dark blue precinct is Kokopelli, and the old Kokopelli precinct is just 49% white (53% 18+, as of whenever DRA has things).

    Here's the area in DRA:

    As you can see, there's some correspondence, although it's hardly perfect.  Perhaps the northern area has more "Tempe white liberals", who, along with minorities, make it pretty Democratic.  Obama's best precinct was Celaya, the U-shaped one north of Kokopelli, which is just 45% white, and has substantial black and Asian populations along with Hispanic populations (at least the old version).  The Camelot Village area seems to be quite white, though, and seems to have backed Obama and Hydrick.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:39:42 AM PST

  •  MI-SD-17 (0+ / 0-)

    Are there any progressive-minded wedding photographers in Randy Richardville's Michigan State Senate district by any chance?

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:26:28 AM PST

  •  Since today is South Carolinapalooza, let me ask (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, sacman701, itskevin, jncca, MichaelNY

    something. I see people sometimes suggest South Carolina as a New South state that is, or is about to, trend our way.

    But why? I don't see it. There's been no consistent trend over the last several elections, and it's the only state in the lower 48 where the white population grew faster than the black population in the last decade. The Hispanic population is growing, but from a smaller base than in NC or GA. And my sense is that the sort of white people who are moving there skew conservative if anything - retirees, especially.

    But is there some trend there that I'm not aware of? Some proto-Research Triangle about to take off, or something?

    •  Good question. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, fearlessfred14, MichaelNY, kman23

      I've always thought of it as more of a state where we need to actively work to change minds more than simply take advantage of trends going our way. We'd probably need at least 30 percent of the white vote there to win, but unlike the Deep South states, we seem to get between 20-25 percent comfortably. Figure that with a concerted effort and some luck, we could get to where we need to be.

      Demographically speaking, the state is becoming more urbanized and slowly but surely more Hispanic. See this for a brief overview. It's not clear if this will necessarily translate into more success for us, but it wouldn't surprise me if it does.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:03:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nah (6+ / 0-)

      I don't think South Carolina has nearly as much potential to be competitive as North Carolina or Georgia.  Most of the growth in South Carolina is happening in the following places:

      - Upstate (ultra-Republican)
      - Myrtle Beach/Horry County (ultra-Republican)
      - South Charlotte Suburbs/York County (ultra-Republican)

      I'm not saying SC is trending Republican, because much of the growth is in the Hispanic population, but I don't think SC has a Democratic trend, either.

      South Carolina's super low taxes (much lower than NC and GA) make it a magnet for conservative minded people, too.

      That's not to say that Democrats can't win elections here statewide, or in a wave federal election, but it will take a lot of work.  I did a diary about the SC-GOV race, and I think State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) is an excellent candidate with a good chance of winning.

      •  South Charlotte suburbs... (7+ / 0-)

        That's kind of a handy vote sink for us, actually, as it draws about a quarter of a million heavily conservative Charlotte suburbanites, but sticks them in South Carolina, where they can't do any damage in NC races. Maybe a similar effect in Aiken and Edgefield counties, too, vis-a-vis Augusta, GA.

      •  Level of Analysis (5+ / 0-)

        I'm really not a big fan of these kinds of analysis. Same problem that I see with Nate Silver's look at Alaska today: "Alaska is becoming more Democratic because the people moving there are from Democratic states".

        Well, okay, but does that mean that the people moving from these Democratic states are Democrats themselves? What if they're leaving because they're sick of the Democrats dominating California and want to move somewhere more conservative?

        With your analysis, I'm left thinking this: Well, okay, but does that mean the growth in these cities is from Republican constituencies?

        Just because the growth is happening in conservative areas does not mean that the people moving there are conservative. I'm simply going to need better evidence that these new people are conservative.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:22:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Part of it is border economics (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, MichaelNY, David Jarman, DCCyclone

          York County being so close to downtown Charlotte, it attracts more conservative suburbanites who are moving to the area.  A liberal person who was moving to Charlotte would be more likely to move somewhere into the city.  That's just speaking generally.  The Charlotte suburbs on the NC side are very conservative too, and fast growing, but you never hear anyone say "NC is trending Democratic because of the rising population in Union and Gaston counties."

          Myrtle Beach: I don't mean to use this disparagingly but Myrtle really is a "redneck" vacation destination.  It can be a fun place, a bit of a circus, but there aren't too many liberals down there.  Also, it's a destination for retirees and golfers, both of which tend to be conservative.  You could say the same for Hilton Head, which is smaller than MB (golf & retirees but not a circus).  As for the numbers, Obama did not improve very much at all over Kerry in Horry County, so it has a slight Republican trend.

          The Upstate may have a slight Democratic trend but it's still a large Republican bastion.  I'm not as familiar with this area, but I don't think there has been an influx of liberals, or a substantial minority population, in recent years.

          •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14, jncca, MichaelNY

            But that's a completely different analysis. Here you're telling us what people are growing (golfers, rednecks, rich suburbanites, retirees) and why these particular individuals are conservative in their context.

            That's totally different. The level of analysis here is individual rather than place, and consequently gets to the question better because you're actually looking at what you want to measure.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:55:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Another thing: the types of businesses... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

            that move to SC.  We're not going to see anything like the Research Triangle in SC's current climate, or a big financial center like Atlanta or Charlotte.  Partly because SC does not have a big world class city like Atlanta, and Charlotte to a lesser extent.  SC also does not have great institutions of higher education - I mean USC, Clemson are nice state schools but they don't offer nearly as many resources and research opportunities as Duke, UNC, or Georgia Tech.  This can be changed, but as long as SC has a governor who hates education, it's unlikely.

            •  Also (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fearlessfred14, MichaelNY, bjssp

              This is a different level of analysis, not individual but directly related to the individual level because those things have impacts on the characteristics of individuals.

              Just saying that a city is growing and because that city is conservative the growth is good for conservatives (and I don't like this type of analysis when Democrats say it about inner cities either) doesn't get to the point.

              Why are the cities growing? What types of individuals have high birth rates? What are the typical partisan positions of those groups? What businesses attract what kinds of workers? Why did the businesses locate there in the first place?

              These are better questions to ask if we want to look at future partisan trends.

              Or we could just look at county results and pinpoint the exact trend and extrapolate that into the future.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:01:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  This is a good point. (6+ / 0-)

          One quibble with this, though:

          What if they're leaving because they're sick of the Democrats dominating California and want to move somewhere more conservative?
          I just can not believe that this happens in meaningful numbers. Of all the things that would figure in to people's decision of where to live, partisan control of the local political offices just can't be very high on the list. Romney seems pretty happy to stay in La Jolla, you know? And that state overwhelmingly voted against him personally!
          •  Well (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Here's a better way of putting it: There are many reasons why people leave or why people come. Taken together, are all of those reasons creating a more conservative electorate in one place?

            Here are three reasons why Alaska could be attracting conservatives vis-a-vis California and other states:

            1) California's anti-business atmosphere incentivizes conservatives to leave.

            2) Alaska's pro-business atmosphere incentivizes conservatives to come.

            3) Alaska's oil economy needs oil workers, which are usually conservative.

            4) Those who have been most likely to migrate over the last few years have been wealthier than average, and wealthy individuals lean conservative.

            5) Alaska has significant barriers to entry because of the geographic isolation. Those who have the means for entry are, just like #4, more likely to be conservative.

            Taken individually, these aren't particularly large trends. Taken together, however, they might actually mean something electorally.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:05:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  a few of them move here (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, tietack, bumiputera

            but they seem a bit more than offset by Democrats coming in.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:52:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's a little of both... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, itskevin, MichaelNY

        On one hand, it's true that a lot of northerners are migrating to South Carolina.  These voters are less reflexively Republican than the white residents.  That said, they tend to be northern retirees who are pretty right leaning themselves.

        Let's just say these transplants split 60/40 R/D.  On one hand, that sounds pretty good, since they would be more Democratic than native-born whites.  On the other hand, this puts them to the right of the South Carolina electorate as a whole, meaning their presence nominally shifts the state to the right.  

        Still, that's just for presidential races.  Even if they pull the lever for Republicans most of the time, a retired veteran from Ohio is going to have slightly different views on the Democrats than the native-born white South Carolinian who lives down the street from him.  Maybe it means some split-ticketing will develop in the future.  Time will tell.  

    •  South Carolina seems to be holding even (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, KingTag, jncca, MichaelNY

      Hispanic growth is helping us, and Columbia and Charleston are trending our way.  However, Horry County only keeps growing and getting more Republican.  Kerry did better than Obama did last month in that county.  We're able to get into the mid-40s when we mobilize African-Americans in the rural areas, but getting to 50 seems as tough as it is for Republicans in New Jersey.

      York County is another one to keep an eye on, as it is a predominantly white exurban county growing fast, yet we haven't suffered as much there.

      North Carolina and Georgia are much more attractive short-term targets.

    •  Look at Richland and Charleston Counties (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Richland has gone from red-purple to true blue.  Charelston too, although not as strongly.  

      Charleston is the swing area.  You have to have a candidate that can put that area in play.  The good thing is the Charleston area is VERY parochial.  A local boy or girl will get their votes.  An upstate GOPer vs. a Charleston Democrat would proabbly go Dem ,if they are credible and have decent funding .

      Add Charleston/Trident to the COlumbia/I-95/Lower Savannah  River axis and you are at 50% or more.

  •  Illinois State Senators moonlighting (5+ / 0-)

    They can't all be Lecturers in Law at a top-four national law school.

  •  Obama has won Fresno County, CA (11+ / 0-)

    Briefly, Romney led until provisionals were reported Dec. 4  giving Obama 13,142 new votes and a 2% lead. I wrote about the drama here and also a little about Dave Wasserman's service as a post-election clearinghouse.

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:25:28 PM PST

  •  The article about Snyder (3+ / 0-)

    also has him as basically saying the issue was "moved to the top of the agenda whether he wants it there or not."  I don't know what that could be referring to if not the attempt to get collective bargaining into the state constitution.

    This whole thing smells like revenge for that, to me, even though it didn't pass.

    I can only hope that Peters speaking out means he's gonna challenge Snyder in '14.  If he does, I hope he beats him badly.

    •  Peters and Whitmer appear to be two front-runners (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

      ...for the 2014 MI-Gov race. Whitmer has been known to have statewide ambitions for some time, and Peters has just made his statewide ambitions abundantly clear by speaking out against Synder.

      Also, Barb "Vasectomy" Byrum has been VERY vocal against Synder on Twitter.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:58:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  even though he's very old I think Levin should run (0+ / 0-)

        for governor instead of senator since he has godlike approval ratings. He could play the role of the "babysitter" of the legislature.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:14:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Michigan needs a leader, not a babysitter! (0+ / 0-)

          ...and Michigan currently has a wannabe nerd in the Governor's Mansion.

          Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

          by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:30:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Levin, no thanks (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I don't understand the love for this guy.

          He was the Democrat in charged of the Armed Services Committee when we went into Iraq. I know he didn't vote for the war but in 2001 and 2002 he more or less backed the Bush line of Saddam being a key in the war on terror.

          Levin also allowed for indefinite detention of citizens to be included in the National Defense Authorization Bill of 2012.

          He's continuously opposed fuel standards going into place (which is amazing as an Armed Services member).

          And while he has liberal ratings across the board, he's never been a vocal leader pushing for progressive causes. Sure, he'll vote for those progressive issues (which is why I vote for him) but he's never been a progressive leader.

          Plus, Levin won't leave the Senate for the Governor's Mansion. He's a career DC type.

          Whitmer and Peters could both beat Snyder (especially if Snyder doesn't once again flip 180 degrees on Union bills) as long as the national mood isn't too anti-Democrats in 2014.

          (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

          by kman23 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 07:56:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Christie hands NJ exchange creation to Feds (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, askew

    He had a chance to show he was different, but nope, he decided to play lazy and let the Feds set up the healthcare exchange for him: http://bluejersey.net/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:28:30 PM PST

  •  Man (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, BeloitDem, JGibson, MichaelNY

    South Carolina is going to be a clusterf*ck in 2014.

    I still think Lindsey Graham is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for re-election (Democratic or Republican), at least in the primary.  Even if all the big names go for the DeMint seat, there are plenty of Joe Millers and Joe the Plumbers in SC who would have an excellent shot at taking down Graham.

  •  Regarding Gary Peters running statewide (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Has someone from a black majority district ever won a statewide race before?

    I can't really think of any. Denise Majette tried in Georgia but failed.

    Obama's state senate district was probably majority black.

    What was the make up of Mervyn Dymally's district in Los Angeles/Long Beach before he was elected Lt. Gov?

  •  If Haley doesn't select Tim Scott (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    the right wing noise machine will go nuts. They are all foaming at the mouth to have a black republican in the senate.

  •  Kansas Redistricting Revisited (5+ / 0-)

    After conservatives and moderate Republicans couldn't agree on new redistricting maps, judges drew 'em for the state House, Senate and congressional races. Now having purged nearly all of the moderates from their last bastion (the state Senate) and handing the entire state government over to the firm control of crazypants conservatives, the incoming conservative Senate President Susan Wagle wants to gerrymander the state.

    Apparently, the 32-8 majority Republicans enjoy in the state Senate and their 90-35 lead in the state house isn't quite enough? Article from KansasCity.com.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

    by arealmc on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:14:02 PM PST

  •  Michigan RTW (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    "Right To Work" has passed the MI House 58 to 52.  

    http://www.mlive.com/...

    •  I read that on TPM livewire. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Referendums will take care of this.  I heard of the $1 expenditure to protect it from that, BUT they did that with the emergency municipal manager law last year, and that still made it into a referendum (where the law was defeated).

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:34:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Are they ready (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        to prepare for a referendum campaign?  Once the signatures are in, the law is put on hold until the vote.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:40:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Appropriation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't think there were any appropriations attached to the EM law.  That's why a referendum was possible.    

        •  I recall they put a $1 expenditure in it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          for the purpose of making it immune.  the precise details may not be correct, but they did something to protect it from a referendum, but that failed

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:53:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Unfortunatly No (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They put an appropriation on it so it won't be put on referendum. Only way it can be changed is by new legislation.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:54:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They did something just like that with the EFM law (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, kman23

            I distinctly remember grouching about the fact they put a $1 appropriation in it to protect it from a referendum, but that did not hold up.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:58:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  SMH I dont know what other options (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              MIDEMS have next. It's a sad day for the state.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:01:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The referendum is just that option. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                They got rid of the EFM law that way.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:03:02 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  What other option they have? (0+ / 0-)

                  they can't put the bill on referumdum cause the MIGOP put appropriations on it. Unless I'm misunderstanding what your'e saying

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:06:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I said (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, kman23

                    they did something similar to that with the EFM bill to protect it from a referendum, but that failed to work.

                    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                    by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:10:35 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm tired ot people acting dumb on this. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      CF of Aus

                      I distinctly remember that they put an appropriation of a single dollar into the EFM bill to immunize it, but that did not work.  They did a similar thing in Ohio with the redistricting bill, but the OH Supremes votes unanimously to allow it to be put to referendum.

                      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                      by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:13:14 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Cite? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        If you're going to accuse people of acting dumb, maybe you can link to the $1 appropriation? I can't seem to find it.

                        •  I'm not, I'm just frustrated nobody remembers (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          But looking it up, it seems that they considered repassing the EFM law last year with an appropriation, but that did not happen or something.  I guess I read the wrong report a year ago or something.

                          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:29:39 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  I think (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, Skaje

                        We can be a little kinder about this one. I don't know why this conversation is proving to be such a thicket, but clarity on the underlying matter would be very good.

                        Political Director, Daily Kos

                        by David Nir on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:27:46 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I know, I just got it wrong over a year ago. (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          I remember talking about the appropriation way back then to make it ineligible for referendum and nobody corrected me then.  apparently, there was no appropriation then

                          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:36:25 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  There was no appropriation (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, bumiputera
                        The reason why PA 4 can be up for voter referendum is because the bill did not include an appropriation. Other legislation like Snyder's pension tax did and was thus referendum-proof.
                        http://www.mlive.com/...
                        •  I know, I read the wrong report a year ago (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          I thought it said way back then that they put an appropriation with it, but they were apparently only considering re-passing it with one.  Can it still be attempted through the referendum process?  Push it anyway.

                          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:32:24 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  So you think they can do something to repeal it (0+ / 0-)

                      since you said those appropriations didn't last that long. I don't want to get David pissed because I know this is a "election" website and he wants comments to be about just that. But this deals with politics and elections.

                      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:15:30 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

    •  just spoke to my dad (7+ / 0-)

      fighting this will probably be one of national labor's biggest priorities.  I bet my stepmother (from Flint) will be going back there to help organize.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:04:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't get this claim from Snyder. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      From THP, we see:

      Gov. Snyder told a packed room during a media roundtable discussion that right-to-work laws only affect the 17.5 percent of Michigan workers who are still unionized, and would not affect union workers' ability to collectively bargain with employers.
      Is this true, and if it is, isn't it still kind of beside the point, as it essentially makes unions limp?

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:04:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right to Work (0+ / 0-)

        I believe it involves union formation, not collective bargaining itself.
        So yes that's true.  I think.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:13:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But isn't it still beside the point? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If I recall correctly, there's no way to actually ban unionizing, but there are plenty of ways to make them impotent. This seems to be one of them.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:34:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, it definitely hurts unions (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So if you're asking is a politician not telling the whole truth, then yes.  But that's just how politicians talk.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:38:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  VA LG & St Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If Ralph Northam wins, what's the procedure on filling his vacant seat seeing as his term ends in 2015? I'm guessing it will be another special election. The vacancy would keep R's in conrtol of the senate for time being 20R 19D.
    So we'll really need to win two races (the LG and the special election) to win back control of the state senate.

    In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

    by lordpet8 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:58:50 PM PST

    •  Guarantee JohnnyLongtorso (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, jj32, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Knows the answer to this.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:06:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A special election would be needed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Such an election would likely be held in Dec. 2013 or Jan. 2014.  Until then, the seat would be vacant.  

      Since statewide winners aren't sworn in until mid-January, Northam could perhaps delay his resignation to prevent the GOP from fucking with things, but for at least a few weeks a vacancy would be needed to nominate candidates and campaign.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:07:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        If Northam wins, then odds are T-Mac has won, too, minimizing GOP chances at meddling.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:30:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It would a shocker for Northam to win if... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...TMac loses.

          Making that more true is that Northam and Chopra might go broke trying to win the primary, while the convention-picked GOP nominee will stockpile cash.

          Don't assume Northam will be the nominee.  He's not clearly any more appealing than Chopra to rank-and-file Democrats.  It will be a fun primary to watch, we really don't have many of those.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 08:23:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Special election (4+ / 0-)

      It would likely be held in January, I don't think there's enough time to get it squeezed into December. I wouldn't sweat holding it too much, Democrats have a decent bench in the district, with Del. Lynwood Lewis and former Del. Paula Miller. I can't think of any prominent Republicans in the district. Ben Loyola could carpetbag back in for a second try, I guess. I'd be more concerned about Mark Herring's seat, since the Democrats are pretty weak in Loudoun right now.

      There are actually four Senate seats that have the potential to be open next November. Northam, as mentioned, Republicans Stephen Martin and Mark Obenshain are running for Lt. Governor and Attorney General, respectively, and Mark Herring is pretty much the de facto AG nominee for the Democrats. (There's some dude named Justin Fairfax also running, but he probably won't even get on the primary ballot, if he stays in.) So the Senate could theoretically end up 20-18 in either direction, 20-19 in either direction, 19-19, or 20-20.

  •  SC-Sen (10+ / 0-)

    You've gotta be shitting me: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    I really hope this happens.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:05:50 PM PST

  •  The above made me realize (0+ / 0-)

    that the Census Factfinder can still make maps for 1990s-era legislative districts.  Are there any interesting cases?  What chambers do Democrats currently control that they didn't control in the 90s?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:22:38 PM PST

    •  Oregon (0+ / 0-)

      I think we lost both in 1992 or 1994.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:06:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Delaware State House n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      In 1977, 31 percent of Californians supported same-sex marriage. That grew to 49 percent in 2009. In 1975, 51 percent of Californians supported abortion rights, support swelled to 70 percent in 2006, All while Republican opposition stayed the same.

      by lordpet8 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:41:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  New York State Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kman23

      oh, wait...

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:39:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-Sen Candidates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I was starting to write a comment listing potential candidates for both of South Carolina's Senate seats in 2014, but the list has been getting so extensive (I'm sort of going into kitchen sink mode, though I'm being realistic with my proposals) that I'm considering turning it into a diary instead. Should I just post it in here, or should I make it a diary?

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:24:35 PM PST

  •  Stu Stevens on Charlie Rose (7+ / 0-)

    He apparently says a bunch of stuff that isn't very interesting. But one thing he does say is, I think, probably quite wrong:

    “It was a campaign they could have lost and they won,” he said. “I would say they ran a better — listen, they ran — the person who wins always runs a better campaign in my book.”

    He added, with a rueful laugh: “The person who wins the mile was the faster runner.”

    I presume he doesn't actually believe this (no Republican would have won in IL-2 on election day, no matter how good the campaign). But I think the idea that campaigns matter . . . is questionable. For the most part it seems that they matter at the margins.

    I do think Obama ran a better campaign, and that may well have been decisive. But I don't think it is always so.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:49:47 PM PST

  •  State Legislature Control Changes: 92, 96, 98. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, DCCyclone

    Via The Census.

    Lower House.

    In 1994, Dems lost:

    AK
    CA
    IL
    IN
    NC
    NV
    OH
    PA
    SC
    WA
    WI.
    Republicans lost no chambers.

    In 1996, Dems picked up:

    CA
    IL
    MI
    NV.
    (Nevada had tied in 1994.)  But Republicans picked up Florida.  Apparently no lower chambers flipped in 1998, and I don't know about 2000 yet.

    Upper chambers.

    In 1994, Republicans picked up:

    CT
    ME
    MT
    ND
    OR
    SD.
    In 1996, Dems picked up:
    CT
    ME
    VT
    WI.
    while Republicans picked up:
    IA
    TX
    VA
    WA.
    Interestingly, even in 1994, Dems picked up lower house seats in:
    CT     (5 seats)
    MA    2
    NJ    1
    They also picked up one Senate seat each in Rhode Island and Hawaii.

    Ah, here's 2000 info.  Dems picked up two lower houses:

    NJ
    WA
    It looks like only one upper house changed hands, although I'm not sure--Maine went from a 17-17 tie to a 17-16 D advantage.  I'm kind of ignoring ties and independents here--I just checked if there were strictly more Democrats than Republicans.  (This also complicates the weird CA situation).  So take it at that level.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 03:55:31 PM PST

  •  SC PPP Poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

    PPP has announced that they're going to poll South Carolina this weekend along with Kentucky and North Carolina. However, they noted something that I was contemplating earlier today. Because every statewide office will be up for election in 2014, particularly the Governor's seat and both Senatorial seats, PPP won't always be able to ask every question (at least at the outset) that we'd like them to ask. For now, they're focusing on who could fill DeMint's vacancy, how Graham stacks up in a primary, and how Haley does in a primary and general election.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:01:54 PM PST

  •  Texas & Florida redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14, bumiputera

    Did anybody else see this article in Roll Call about Texas & Florida re-redistricting?
    LINK

    •  Ah, didn't know the FL lawsuit was progressing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:18:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The map in place (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        is still pretty much a gerrymander, especially in North and Central Florida.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:30:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, ArkDem14

          It's a soft, gentle gerrymander like they did in Georgia or in TN.  The panhandle and a few other small parts is the only part where no gerrymander happened.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:31:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  TBH they didn't really go gentle in Georgia (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY, BeloitDem, andgarden

            they didn't intend to leave a single Democratic district that wasn't African American majority.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:35:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I meant more aesthetically speaking (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              with Georgia

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:37:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  There were those (4+ / 0-)

              who believed Georgia could provoke a VRA lawsuit and potentially win by cracking Sanford Bishop's seat as well.  Of course, there would be no way to make every south GA seat safe GOP...simply too many African-Americans and blue dog Democrats scattered around.  They weakened Kingston by 16 points just going after Barrow, and trying to go after both Barrow and Bishop would preclude them from really shoring up Scott either, and potentially leave all four south GA seats in danger during good Dem years.  

              Still, there were those who suggested at least leaving Bishop vulnerable (he almost lost in 2010), rather than vote sinking him as they did.  Depending on your perspective, that could have been a dummymander, or an even worse gerrymander.

              But anyway, I think the southern gerrymanders don't seem quite as egregious to us because Republicans at least concede us a bunch of seats in a state that they dominate statewide.  The gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and Ohio are worse because we actually win those states frequently in statewide races, yet have been reduced to incredibly low numbers.  Aesthetically, they also look far worse, and involve much more bacon-mandering.

          •  TN wasn't a gerrymander (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            The Nashville district could have been drawn by a court, resulting in the same 7-2 split that a court map would have given them.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:41:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  it was. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It just could have gone farther.  But given the priorities of the incumbents, they probably couldn't have realistically put together an 8-1 map that wouldn't have left any districts vulnerable.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:49:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The best I think they could have done (0+ / 0-)

                is 7-1-1.  It was possible to dilute Cooper's seat a bit, perhaps down to like 50% Obama, without inconveniencing the neighboring Republicans too much.  Cooper would still hold such a seat with ease normally, but might have to sweat a bit in GOP years, and upon retirement it would definitely see a competitive election.

            •  It was a mild one in some respects (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              the key difference being that TN-04 would have been a good deal more Dem, but probably not enough to have caused DesJarlais to have lost this year.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:17:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Never mind, a fair map is basically the same thing (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              since DesJarlais would have kept much more of his old district to trade off for it being just 1.2% worse in the DRA average.

              The 7th was what got a good deal bluer under a fair map, but it was still about as red as the state at large to Blackburn would have been fine.

              I'd definitely have to agree with your original point and that this map was much more aimed at targeting DesJarlais and Fleischmann in the primaries.  Also it still blows my mind that DesJarlais is still in congress.  His opponent had his had-drawn district and with any remotely competent opposition research would have come across DesJarlais' uh, "conduct" and yet he still didn't pull the trigger.  Now I don't see how there isn't a clown-car to oppose him in 2014.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:25:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I didn't realize there was still a possibility of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      getting more favorable lines in central Texas or DFW. I figured the most that would happen would be a tweaking of TX-23, but since Gallego already won that district, the political implications would be minimal (though it's be nice if that district were shored up for him).

  •  I'm looking into the CT Senate further. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades

    What's interesting is that the Republicans managed to win the Norwalk and Stratford districts in 1994.  The Stratford fellow, George Gunther, actually served from 1967-2007!

    The Norwalk fellow, Robert Genuario, was eventually appointed as a judge by Jodi Rell.

    Up in Danbury, Mark Nielsen was only winning narrowly despite the Republican year.  If the name sounds familiar, he ran for CT-05 a couple of times.  Actually, both the comparable seats in Stratford and Danbury are still Republican today, while Democrats eventually picked up the Norwalk seat.

    Republicans also held a seat covering Trumbull and North Bridgeport(!) at the time, which was later won by future Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch.  That Wikipedia page would have saved me some time.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:26:30 PM PST

    •  Incidentally, Republicans won the CT Senate (0+ / 0-)

      in 1994 by picking up two contiguous seats east of Hartford, which they only held from 1994-1996.  One of these was left open by the retirement of some guy named John Larson.  It was won by Kevin Rennie, which is a familiar name for some reason.  Only a few other seats changed parties from 1992-2006, one of which was briefly flipped by some other dude named Chris Murphy.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:32:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, and the seat the Dems picked up in 1994! (0+ / 0-)

      District 34, in North Haven/Cheshire/Wallingford (see the above link) was won by Brian McDermott, but it's now held by Republican Len Fasano.  Here's the CT Mirror:

      Fasano unseated Democrat Brian McDermott in 2002, despite efforts in that year's redistricting plan to make the seat even safer for a Democrat. The seat now seems to be Fasano's for as long as he wants it. In 2008 and 2010, he was cross-endorsed by the Working Families Party and unopposed by Democrats.
      [...]

      He is a Republican with cross-over appeal. In 2008, Fasano was only one of two Senate Republicans to vote for a bill to require private employers to offer paid sick days, a vote that earned him the cross-endorsement of the Working Families Party later that year. He was the only Republican to win the WFP's cross-endorsement in 2010.

      Fasano returned the GOP fold on another labor bill a month later, voting against a minimum wage increase that became law over Gov. M. Jodi Rell's veto.

      In 2007, Fasano voted against medical marijuana and a bill to require gun owners to report stolen firearms. He supported requiring hospitals to offer emergency contraceptives to rape victims. He voted against abolishing the death penalty.

      As for the Bill Finch seat, apparently it was Republican again for a bit:
      Helped by Barack Obama's coattails in 2008, Musto unseated Republican Robert D. Russo, who had won the seat in a special election earlier in 2008. Russo succeeded Democrat Bill Finch, who was elected mayor of Bridgeport in 2007.Musto undoubtedly was helped again in 2010 by Obama, who visited Bridgeport on the weekend before the election to get out the Democratic vote, mainly for U.S. Rep Jim Himes and Richard Blumenthal.
      (CT seems to keep its numbering and its districts relatively constant.)

      Meanwhile, here's the guy with the Chris Murphy/Sam Caligiuri seat, who is definitely an "only in Connecticut" kind of politician:

      It's been 26 years between electoral victories for Joe Markley. He was elected to the state Senate for one term in 1984, propelled into office by the Ronald Reagan landslide. Now, he's back, helped into office by the Tea Party movement.

      As the only avowed Tea Party adherent to win election in Connecticut, Markley is a curiously laid-back representative of a movement known for its anger and frustration with government spending and policies."I've not the hard-driving sort," said Markley, who has degrees in English from Amherst and Columbia. "I'm a very relaxed firebrand."

      [...]

      Political activism has not consumed Markley's life. He has taught at an inner-city high school and at a community college to immigrants preparing to become U.S. citizens. When recruited by Tea Party activists, Markley said, he was living cheaply at a friend's apartment in western Massachusetts, working on a novel "about what I think is wrong with society."

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:49:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In yet more DKE-familiar news. (0+ / 0-)

      The Stratford seat isn't just Republican--it was held by Dan Debicella until 2010.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:02:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  To clarify (0+ / 0-)

      Nielsen was picking up the Danbury seat left open by Maloney, hence +3-1=2 for the GOP.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:01:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  so apparently (9+ / 0-)

    AFSCME, SEIU, and NEA have made a pact going forward to much more closely coordinate.  Can't link to it, but my dad was one of the AFSCME delegates.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 04:42:07 PM PST

  •  Appalachia/Georgia/South Carolina pres (4+ / 0-)

    I've been thinking of redoing this diary series since in hindsight it would have been much easier to do after the election to have real basline.  Once all the relevant states have certified I'll crunch the numbers across the entire region using the wiki definition, but for now I just have SC and GA.

    As you could have no doubt guessed, Romney easily carried the Appalachian region of both states, as did McCain, but Romney did slightly better in both states.  All percentages are two-party vote only:

    In SC, Obama went from 35.7% in 2008 to 34.2% in the Appalachian region while he went from 48.59% to 48.0% in the remainder of the state.  I'd have to think he'd have definitely contested and possibly won the remainder of South Carolina were it a state.

    In GA Obama goes from 32.1% to 30.2% in the Appalachian region (including Douglas, Gwinnett, and some exurban counties like Forsyth) while still carrying the rump state with 52.3%, down from 53.3% in 2009.

    Interestingly and quite unlike north and central Appalachia, Obama's vote share fell more or less in line with his national fall from 2008 to 2012.  Point in case, he did better than Kerry in both state's Appalachian regions, something which couldn't be further from the truth in places like West Virginia.  It goes to show just how big of an impact coal had on his fall there.

    Using the new average PVI's I've so far done for GA and SC, the appalachian regions and the remainder state compare to the actual state itself as:
    GA-App:  R+13.9
    GA-Rest: D+5.4, difference of 19.3
    SC-App:  R+8.5
    SC-Rest: D+2.8, difference of 11.3

    Doing this same thing with Obama's 2 party share yields:
    GA-APP:  30.2%
    GA-Rest: 52.3%, difference of 23.1%
    GA-real:  46.0%
    SC-APP:  34.2%
    SC-Rest: 48.0%, difference of 13.8%
    SC-real:  44.7%

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:14:41 PM PST

    •  I'd think East Tennessee would be similar (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY

      but the Cumberland Plateau (the other Appalachian region in TN) would show a big drop for Obama, particularly in the northern areas that have coal mining. Obama probably also lost more in Middle and West Tennessee, though I remember the counties along the Tennessee River being surprisingly resilient.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:36:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Chad Walldorf (0+ / 0-)

    any chance he's the inspiration for Buck Strickland from KOTH?

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:18:48 PM PST

  •  OH-14 (13+ / 0-)

    I stumbled over to the comments section of RRH and a user posted this. Looks like a good get.

    An Ohio Democratic lawyer and political activist who led fundraising for Senator Sherrod Brown’s successful 2012 re-election campaign doesn’t rest on his laurels — he’s already a candidate himself for a House seat in 2014.

    Michael Wager, 61, will seek election in Ohio’s 14th District, according to papers filed this week with the Federal Election Commission.

    Wager served as finance chairman for Brown, who defeated Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Wager worked on Capitol Hill in the 1970s for Representatives Charles Vanik and Mary Rose Oakar of Ohio and Senator Lawton Chiles of Florida.

    http://go.bloomberg.com/...
  •  Does anyone have the exact text (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    of the FDF amendment? I'm drawing Florida and I want to see what it says, although I haven't decided if I'm going to follow it or not.

    •  Found it for the Cong. districts amendment: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, BeloitDem

      http://election.dos.state.fl.us/...

      Drawing CD-20 so as to keep it majority black is really difficult, I found.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:24:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep, it's just barely VAP black IIRC (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, Skaje

        I've always thought that district wasn't section 2 required, while the 24th obviously still is.  There's just not enough racial polarization across such a wide (populationwise) geographic area for the 20th to be necessary for the minority communities to elect their candidate of choice and if anything it deprives them of it.  It isn't as if a district with Palm Beach was going to vote to elect a Republican.

        That district is to me the equivalent of NC-12 (without Guilford County being Section 5).  It's just a GOP gerrymander where the Republicans put the window dressing of the VRA on top.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:34:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  RTW in Michigan. (7+ / 0-)

    Jesus. I never thought I would say this but I wish Pete Hoekstra was Governor right now. He at least opposed RTW. Hopefully this at least helps us flip the state house back, or at least make sizable gains, and obviously beat Snyder.

  •  MI-Gov: Recall possible?? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Wonder if Dems will try to recall Snyder? Unlike WI, I don't think there isn't the need to wait a full year to take out petitions.

    Not sure if it is a good idea, but I wonder if it is possible?

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 05:34:53 PM PST

  •  MI: Chaos at the Capitol (4+ / 0-)

    The capitol is now on lockdown:

    LANSING — Michigan State Police say eight protesters have been arrested for disobeying lawful command, trying to push their way into Senate chambers.

    Police sprayed chemical munitions into a crowd when it tried to rush the Senate floor, said Michigan State Police Inspector Gene Adamczyk.

    “When several of the individuals rushed the troopers, they used chemical munitions to disperse the crowd,” he said. “It would be a lot worse if someone gets hurt and I failed to act.”

    The police blocked the entrance to the Capitol, leaving several hundred people outside waiting to get inside.

    Good lord, this is going to get ugly.
    •  MI: Senate passed RTW 22-16 (5+ / 0-)

      'Effing cowards, passing this crap in December in a lameduck:

      Amid chants of "shame on you, shame on you" from angry protestors in the gallery above, Republicans in the Senate also approved right-to-work legislation this evening, about three and half hours after House Republicans voted through similar legislation to make Michigan the 24th state with a right-to-work law.

      The Michigan Senate passed their first bill by a 22-16 vote, with Democrats and a few Republicans voting against it. A separate bill approving right-to-work strictly for public-sector workers passed a few minutes afterward by a 22-4 vote. The chamber's 12 Democrats walked off the floor in protest and were purposely absent for that vote.

      The only solace is that we did have some Republicans cross over in both the Senate and the House.  Looks like eight crossed over in the housee and four in the Senate.
      •  Can you imagine if this shit went on at the (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingTag, LordMike

        federal level? Just imagine how the MSM would go nuclear if Democrats had passed health care during the lame duck.

        There's really no justification for pushing through legislation during a lame duck session and the solution needs to be to A) move up the period when new legislators are sworn in (or move back the election date/have snap elections, etc. etc.) or B) not have that legislature meet following an election before everyone new can be sworn in.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:14:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think B should be a rule in every state (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, bjssp, James Allen, MichaelNY, LordMike

          No reason people should be able to vote on laws after they've lost re-election.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:19:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed, although (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            I'd much rather us have a European style, proportional representation parliamentary system anyway, so having the new congress sworn in 1 week after the election isn't that crazy when the election is only 6 (or however few) weeks long.

            I'd imagine there would be huge pushback among congresscritters towards doing away with the lame duck, though I doubt the electorate would be opposed in the abstract.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:26:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  were we cowards for passing DADT repeal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        during a lame duck?

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:16:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That negatively impacted nobody. (7+ / 0-)

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:25:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Other than bigots, true (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            But the principle is the same.  Either you support lame duck legislation or you don't.  You can't only support lame duck legislation you like and saying the other stuff is illegitimate.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:40:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  On the one hand yes (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Skaje

          and to answer your question definitely, yes, congressional Democrats absolutely were cowards to wait until the lame duck.

          That being said, it's certainly courageous that they passed it in the first place.  I'm sure a Randian right-winger would say the same thing about Michigan's RTW though, so perspective matters.

          The other answer you were looking for is of course "no, we're being Machiavellian in the most benevolent of manners."  That's of course why I have no qualms whatsoever about us doing it, or gerrymandering Illinois, etc. etc.  If the rules give you said incentive, why the hell wouldn't you take it!?

          Which is why the solution is what I outlined in my other comment, or with redistricting to have non-partisan redistricting or proportional representation.

          In short, don't hate the players, hate the game.  Institutions matter.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:30:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  That was not nearly as controversial (6+ / 0-)

          A majority of Republicans supported it, Americans clearly favored it. It could have, and perhaps should have, been done before the election. However it is not on the same level.

          Pushing through legislation that is clearly a hotly divided issue when you know you may not have the votes the next body is not right. A matter this important deserves a fair and honest debate. They brought it up, what like a week ago?

          Originally the whole point of the walkouts in Indiana was because it was getting pushed through at a fast pace with little time to debate the matter. This just is not democratic.

    •  Lansing = Cairo (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      Snyder forces this right to work BS.  He takes away people's right to vote for their own governments.

      I think it SHOULD get ugly, to Cairo level ugly.  We should be seeing protests in MI comparable to what we see in Egypt, and the protests should keep going until Snyder is forced to resign.

      •  Can you imagine how terrible that would be (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MichaelNY, Inkan1969

        for legitimacy? Basically if enough protestors come, the leader should resign?  If people on the right advocated for enough protests to force out Obama, we'd be outraged.  Let's not be hypocrites.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:21:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Arab Spring? (0+ / 0-)

          Wasn't that the basic principle behind the Arab Spring?  Enough protesters did turn out in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen, and so the leader did resign.  The operative word being "enough".  The 11/6 election strongly indicated that the right wing nuts don't have enough numbers to pull off such protests.

          •  The key difference is that those leaders (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            were all anti-democratic in the most lower-case meaning of the word.  None of them would have been elected to their office in a fair election directly prior to their ousting, while Snyder was very clearly and fairly elected to be governor and would have more likely than not gotten reelected before this month.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:38:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Right (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike, JGibson

            but Mubarak, Ghaddafi, Ben Ali, Assad were/are all dictators.  As I said earlier, there's just no comparison between Rick Snyder and a dictator.  Just over two years ago, close to 3/5 of the state voted for him.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:41:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  MI: 'avoid walking alone at night' (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sawolf, LordMike

      Give. Me. A. Break.:

      LANSING -- State employees were sent safety cautions today in light of the explosive atmosphere at the Capitol surrounding the right-to-work legislation.

      "Since right-to-work is an emotional issue, we wanted to be sure employees were aware and prepared," said Kurt Weiss, a spokesman for the Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

      The cautions were sent by e-mail to all state employees by DTMB Director John Nixon, telling them to expect to see more Michigan State Police officers and other security officials around state facilities.

      The e-mail cautions employees to look for suspicious persons or packages and avoid holding open doors to state buildings for people who don't have state government identifications.

      Also, "avoid walking alone at night," the e-mail says.

      •  You missed the best part (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike
        The cautions were sent by e-mail to all state employees by DTMB Director John Nixon, telling them to expect to see more Michigan State Police officers and other security officials around state facilities.
        A guy named Nixon is essentially telling them to be paranoid.  Priceless.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:35:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hansen Clark isn't African American (0+ / 0-)

    He's Bangledeshi.

    I hope there wasn't as assumption that he was African American because the district he represented was majority African American.

    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

    by kman23 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 06:53:47 PM PST

  •  Pres by CD 49, 50, 51, 52, 53 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, wwmiv, MichaelNY

    http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/...

    49
    http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/...
    excludes writeins, and, probably, under and over votes

    page 580, 285, 432                   [inclueds writein, over/under?
                  obama       romney     misc         total votes    O%     R%
    49          106204       107271     4702         219114    
    50            91752       146885     4925        244699    
    51            90474        35311      2346        128591    
    52           163911       143726     7111        163911    
    53           174616       103513     6204        285478    
    total        626957     536726    25288        1188971  

    49          106204       107271     4702         219114
    orange    28243          46585                        76291
    total        134447       153856                     294468

    50            91752       146885     4925        244699
    riverside  10897         18219                       29727    
    total        102649      165104                     273289
                    37.6%          60.4%  

    51            90474        35311      2346        128591    
    imperial    25139        12777                       29727
    total        115613       48108                      166687
                        69.4%      28.9%

    52           163911       143726     7111        163911    
                      52.1%         45.&%

    53           174616       103513     6204        285478
                     61.4%         36.4%

    •  Awesome (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm updating these on my spreadsheet!

      https://docs.google.com/...

      A bit of housekeeping with regard to this:

      1) I got rid of the columns with adjusted PVI because it was too messy.

      2) I've color coded the values.

      3) I've added a second sheet for the states, so that the House page is easier to read.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:48:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  PVIs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      CA-49: R+5 to R+4
      CA-50: R+14 to R+13
      CA-51: D+11 to D+16
      CA-52: D+1 to D+2
      CA-53: D+7 to D+10

      Obama actually feel off slightly more than nationally in the 52nd, from 56% to 53% (two party vote). This might have to do with Peters's narrower win than some expected. Remember that he, about a month out, was looking at something more like a 5% margin.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 10:52:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Man (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      as bad as the new California map is for Republicans, it could have been a lot worse.

      Our safe Dem districts are hitting ridiculous performances now.  Republicans should be thankful Democrats didn't have the ability to draw a truly aggressive map.

      •  If only CA didn't take forever and wasn't so slow (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I have a feeling CA Dems would have just done what they did last time and only just lock up their safer districts.  But still, that's just empty speculation.  But my general sense is that they wouldn't want to go out of their comfort zone.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 07, 2012 at 12:27:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know that's the conventional wisdom (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          but legislators elsewhere around the country were incredibly aggressive this year, to the point of some rather serious inconveniences to their own incumbents.  I don't think Rep. Renacci liked being thrown in with Rep. Sutton in Ohio.  Nor were the North Carolina reps particularly pleased with the tons of new territory they received and the (with exception of Ellmers) bluer districts they were running in.

          I think California Dems might have gone a bit further than we think, particularly on some of the low hanging fruit (like Bilbray, Lungren, Gallegly, Dreier).  Maybe they wouldn't have gone crazy in Orange County or in the central valley seats, like we might have in our fantasy gerrymanders, but I think they might have at least tried to create some opportunities.

          Still, incumbent-protection would be a priority, and they might have struggled to make Gallegly's seat so appealing without dismantling the Capps-mander.  Same goes for the inconvenience visited upon Garamendi, which helped the neighboring seats.

          I'm fine with the commission map, but part of me still looks at all those 70%+ Obama Dem seats and 49% Obama GOP seats and gets aggravated.  It would be so easy...

          •  Good point. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Lungren would be an obvious target and they probably would have slightly cracked Sacramento city in addition to cutting off Lungren's non-Sacramento County territory.  The Capps coastal ribbon probably would have stayed to some extent.  Dreier would be easy to rid.  Bilbray not so much as SD County is rather less reliably Dem.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 07, 2012 at 09:53:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

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