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8:39 AM PT: UT-04: At long last, vote counting has concluded in Utah, and Dem Rep. Jim Matheson has been certified as the winner by 768 votes over Mia Love, who conceded on election night. Interestingly, the final margin wound up tighter than even the closest projection that analyst Robert Gehrke offered, which suggested a best-case scenario might be a 1,350-vote victory for Matheson. Now the question is whether Matty can hang on in 2014. There's one difference that'll definitely be in his favor: no Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, driving up the "favorite son" and Mormon vote on behalf of Republicans.

10:47 AM PT: NYC Mayor: Quinnipiac has some fresh numbers on the New York City mayoral primary, and unsurprisingly, they find City Council Speaker Christine Quinn in the lead with 32 percent, up a bit from her 29 percent share in August and her 26 percent take in May, suggesting steady advancement. Former Comptroller Bill Thompson and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio are both holding steady at 10 and 9 respectively, but current Comptroller John Liu has seen his share from 9 to 5. I'd say that's due to his serious ethics woes, but those issues have been in play since well before Quinnipiac's last poll, so I'm not sure what's going on here. The poll was also in the field before Scott Stringer dropped out to run for Liu's job, and you can understand why he bailed, seeing as he was at just 4 percent.

Quinnipiac also tested a couple of actual Republican names against Generic D, and the results are pretty amusing. MTA chief Joe Lhota (who received a fair amount of visibility in the wake of Hurricane Sandy) trails 60-9, while former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion loses 62-11. While you might be tempted to laugh, I'd point out that NYC has had Republican mayors continuously since Rudy Giuliani was first elected in 1993. That depressing 20-year-long streak makes me take nothing for granted.

11:36 AM PT: Gay Marriage: Fresh off our successes on the marriage equality front in four states this year, BeloitDem asks, "Where next?" Dividing the nation up into three tiers—top targets, reach targets, and long-term targets—he discusses 17 states where same-sex marriage could one day become law, and what electoral changes progressives will have to push for to make it happen.

11:44 AM PT: IL-02: For anyone following this story, this comes as no surprise:

Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. is resigning from Congress today, CBS 2 has learned.

He notified staff, supporters and some lawmakers this afternoon, citing health reasons. His resignation letter has been sent to House Speaker John Boehner.

The decision came following two weeks of mounting calls for him to come clean with voters, following revelations that former U.S. Attorney Dan Webb was involved in plea bargaining with authorities who’d been investigating Jackson’s alleged misuse of campaign funds.

Jackson, of course, had also disappeared from public view earlier this year and received treatment for an unspecified medical condition that was the subject of many conflicting and sketchy reports. He never addressed the matter publicly, but still won re-election, albeit by the smallest margin of his career. Now, in addition to leaving Congress, jail time looks increasingly likely.

A special election will soon follow this announcement, though in this dark blue district, the Democratic primary is the only race that matters. Some possible candidates include: ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who got trounced by Jackson earlier this year in a comeback attempt; state Sen. Emil Jones III (though his father, the former State Senate president of the same name, was very unpopular); and state Sen. Toi Hutchison, who was Halvorson's old chief of staff when she served in the state Senate. Illinois' 2nd is also heavily black (and the Dem primary electorate even moreso), but if a bunch of African-American politicians were to enter the race and split the vote, that could allow Halvorson, who is white, to sneak through with a plurality.

In any event, many more names are likely to emerge from the woodwork, and as always, we'll be following future developments closely.

12:17 PM PT: GA-Sen: We've already mentioned Rep. Tom Price as a possible GOP primary challenger to Sen. Saxby Chambliss a couple of times, but Roll Call's Joshua Miller runs through a whole bunch of other potential contenders in Georgia's congressional delegation as well. Paul Broun isn't ruling out a run, and Tom Graves declined to comment, but Lynn Westmoreland, Jack Kingston, and Phil Gingrey are all basically saying no (though Gingrey had previously looked unlikely).

Also intriguing is a new report in the Weekly Standard which says that former Secretary of State Karen Handel might make a bid as well. Election junkies will recall Handel from her 2010 gubernatorial bid, when she narrowly lost the Republican nomination to ex-Rep. Nathan Deal in a runoff by four tenths of a percent (after taking first place in the opening round).

And those of you who follow developments in the war on women certainly haven't forgotten Handel's notorious role in cutting off funding for Planned Parenthood as vice president for public policy at Susan G. Komen for the Cure. Of course, the very actions which made her a demon in the eyes of those who value the kinds of services PP provides (like breast cancer screenings) will only help to burnish her conservative credentials if she makes another run for office.

12:29 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Unsurprisingly, GOP Gov. Chris Christie has seen his standing in the polls soar in the wake of his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. He now has a 67-25 favorability rating in the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll, up dramatically from 48-42 at the end of September and by far his highest marks ever. That even includes 49 percent of Democrats. But will it last? It may not matter. Candidates thinking about taking on Christie in next year's gubernatorial election have to make up their minds pretty soon, and the big names might be newly reluctant to jump in, just given where things stand now. Of course, I hope that's not the case, but I'm starting to feel a bit pessimistic.

1:00 PM PT: CO-Gov, -Sen: Eli Stokols of local news outlet KDVR talks to three Republican who may seek statewide office in 2014: Both ex-Rep. (and two-time failed Senate candidate) Bob Schaffer and state Sen. Greg Brophy aren't ruling out challenges to Gov. John Hickenlooper, while ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez says he may run against Sen. Mark Udall. Stokols also mentions a bunch of other names: Former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp could make a gov bid, while Reps. Cory Gardner and Mike Coffman could also look to move up, as could SoS Scott Gessler and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton. Gardner, though, already has that "rising star" label attached to him and may prefer to stay in the House.

One unnamed "former Republican lawmaker" went even deeper into the weeds with his own list of alternatives to this standard list of names and proposed state Rep. Cheri Gerou, former congressional candidate Lang Sias, state Sen. Ellen Roberts, and Jennifer George, who lost a legislative race this fall. Also, there's one entertaining line from Schaffer, who really seems quite delusional at this point:

"[Mitt Romney's] campaign rhetoric was quite good, but it didn't precisely align with his proven record as a governor," Schaffer said. "Obama campaigned as a committed socialist and his record supports that."

1:16 PM PT: MD-Gov: Oh good: We haven't seen an internal poll in weeks, so I was starting to get worried that politics had ended. But not to fear! Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown is already out with a Democratic primary survey (from GHY) for the 2014 governor's race. Of course, it being so early and the field being so unformed, Brown has a few different trial heats, though he leads in all of them.

In a four-way contest, Brown takes 31 percent to 19 for AG Doug Gansler, 14 for Comptroller Peter Franchot, and just 4 for Howard County Executive Ken Ulman. Without Franchot, it goes Brown 37, Gansler 23, and Ulman 5, and it's 41-25 Brown when he's paired up against just Gansler. (It's not clear why Brown seems to think Franchot is the least likely to make the race.) Note that the primary is not until June 24, 2014.

1:41 PM PT (David Jarman): Senate: Senate Democrats managed to win in Montana and North Dakota this year even as those states were solid red at the presidential level -- but somehow that doesn't come as a surprise. Whether it's prairie populism, personally-compelling candidates, or both, Democrats have usually managed to retain their Senate seats in this part of the country despite the presidential leans.

University of Minnesota's Smart Politics takes a look at this phenomenon, and finds that indeed these two states are the likeliest ticket splitters, splitting their presidential/Senate votes more than half the time over the last century (for instance, Montana going GOP for Prez and Dem for Senate 10 out of 18 times in the last century). The average state rate for ticket-splitting has been 29% of the time over the last century; every state has done it at least once, but it's a tie between Kansas and Wyoming for the least (each has done it only once).

1:51 PM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: You've probably gorged on Republican-internal-polling-sucked in the last few weeks to the extent that they're starting to make you sick, so here's a nice change of pace: a story from HuffPo's Mark Blumenthal on how the Obama campaign's internal pollsters got it right. What did they do right? For starters, they leaned entirely on voter registration lists (instead of random-number dialing) to pull their samples. In addition to frequent swing state samples (which turned into state-level tracking polling in the closing months), they also ran constant parallel polls oriented toward "voter identification," oriented toward fleshing out their LV model as well as helping with microtargeting strategies. On top of that, to assess their chances, they fed all of their data through a Nate Silver/Sam Wang-style Monte Carlo simulation every day.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Great Election (8+ / 0-)

    I was thrilled Murphy got in.  I searched the polls daily but they were saying nothing you could count on.  One poll a week prior to election had West up 9 points.  Another poll had Murphy and West tied.

    Murphy is totally different from West.  West is a loud-mouthed blow hard.  Murphy is quiet, conservation and considerate.   West only won Palm Beach by 190 votes.  That should have been a strong county for him but I think the bluster wore off with many.

    Calling him a rich daddy's boy was Wests favorite line.  Murphy was not rich and worked as a day laborer while going to college.  He was made to look like a snot-nosed kid in the eyes of West.   Murphy is 29 years old and Joe Biden went to Washington at 30.   Age does not make you a great Representative.  (Look at John McCain.) !!!!

    The icing on the cake would have been if Zerban had beaten Paul Ryan.

  •  Good morning to everyone!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, MichaelNY

    Any good news from NC-07 race guys???

  •  NJ-Gov, polling starts again! (4+ / 0-)

    Likely R, ref http://www.politickernj.com/...

    Eagleton: Christie's post Sandy job approval at 67% among registered voters
    Garden Staters have responded very positively to NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s leadership following Superstorm Sandy, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. More than 90 percent praise the governor for his handling of the storm: 69 percent say Christie handled the crisis “very well” and another 23 percent say he handled it “somewhat well.”
    12 percent who think Christie “went too far in his praise” of the president.
    Can't find the polling memo, but the article itself is rich with detail.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:24:56 AM PST

  •  Everybody have a happy Thanksgiving!! (5+ / 0-)

    No political fights with family!

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:25:28 AM PST

  •  obama's PV lead currently at 3.23% (13+ / 0-)

    closest poll released during the last week was rand, which had obama's lead at 3.32%. The only other poll that did not underestimate Obama's lead was DemCorps, which had an obama lead of 4%. All the other polls underestimated Obama's performance. Yes, the polls were definitely skewed in this election, in favor of romney.

  •  PA-House (6+ / 0-)

    Rather good PoliticsPA article on how the House Democratic Campaign Committee failed to close the gap in Harrisburg while Dems otherwise did so well statewide, sweeping the five statewide races and gaining three seats in the State Senate.

  •  Awesome father / meh son combinations? (7+ / 0-)

    So It was occurring to me that both Mario Coumo and Birch Byah were awesome Democrats, both of whom's sons went into politics, and both of whom's sons were substantially less awesome. Can people think of any other examples of this phenomenon?

  •  NJ: Newark council meeting results in chaos (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, gabjoh, MichaelNY
    A behind-the-scenes political maneuver by Newark Mayor Cory Booker to fill a vacant council seat with his choice led to a near-riot in city hall tonight, with dozens of residents rushing the council stage and police responding with pepper-spray.

    After weeks of jockeying for Rep. Donald Payne’s successor, Booker made an unprecedented personal appearance to cast the deciding vote with his council allies for Shanique Davis Speight, a longtime ally of power broker Stephen Adubato, over the angry objections of residents.

    http://www.nj.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:01:55 AM PST

  •  Can someone point me to updates for (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    California congressional election results?  I'll be very interested to see if our underfunded some dude in CA-25 held McKeon to single digits or if it's still wider than that.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:12:51 AM PST

  •  Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, and More (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, JDJase, BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

    I'm sorry for not responding to everyone yesterday. I really wanted to, but I'm house sitting and I don't have good Internet access.

    In no particular order, here are the points I wanted to make yesterday:

    1. My biggest problem with Cuomo, like most of you, is that he's going out of his way to favor Republicans with the maps and that he even endorsed two of them. That's unacceptable, but I don't think it's because he's more in line with their views than with ours on economics. I just think he wants to be seen as above-the-fray, bipartisan, and other things like that.

    2. When he was first elected, the Republicans controlled the State Senate. Perhaps I am forgetting something, but I am pretty sure there were no indications that they were going to be open to more government spending and higher taxes.

    3. As a point of comparison, let's look back at some recent Democratic governors in New York and their budgets. Nothing appears to be completely out of the ordinary. You can say that his reduction of spending isn't good, but let's remember that New York already spends a lot of money and has high taxes already. It should be judged differently than other states, where they almost certainly aren't spending enough.

    4. As far as taxes go, let's remember that the millionaire's tax included income as far down as $200,000 and there are no indications that the Republicans could be coaxed into agreeing to supporting its extension. This is similar to the public option debate, where people argue that Obama could have voiced (more?) support for it publicly, which would have accomplished...nothing in particular.

    5. Let's also remember that Cuomo did sign into law a bill that cut taxes for most of the state and raised them on actual millionaires. It might not be as high as that which was enacted under Paterson, but he did raise them so that they were higher than what they would have been under Spitzer and Pataki while lowering them for most other people. Given that New York is a high tax state, that's not the worst thing in the world.

    6. You can make the argument that spending shouldn't have gone down, but it's not as if it was cut by double digits. Plus, it's gone up again on education and Medicaid after going down for a year or two before.

    7. It's hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison, since each state is different in how it fared during the recession and what it needs it has, but as I said yesterday, let's compare New York and Maryland. O'Malley's been governor for a while now and has never had to deal with a Republican legislature, yet as this linksays, "Maryland has lowered state spending $434 million below FY 2007 levels, cut $4.3 billion, and eliminated 3,200 state positions since Gov. Martin O'Malley took office in 2007."

    He's increased taxes more than Cuomo has, sure, but he had a Democratic majority in each chamber. It's also important to point out that even with the increases, Maryland's income tax rates are still lower than New York's. Whether it's right or wrong to raise taxes, it's simply easier to do when you are starting from a lower rate.

    In a general sense, Cuomo isn't my favorite Democrat ever, but I'm willing to withhold a little judgement until I see where else he goes. He's more limited in what he can do because he has to run a balanced budget and deal with Republicans. His moves with the Republicans are leaving me increasingly confused, but again, I don't think it's because he agrees with them. Instead, I'd bet that, like Obama, he has a bizarre fetish with appearing above the nonsense.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:23:40 AM PST

    •  I think Mario ran to the right of Ed Koch (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      in the NY-Gov primary back in '82.

      It's not how we think of either Mario or Ed today.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:05:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •   (0+ / 0-)

      Should have read this before putting my post below.

      Appending would have been better

    •  That's not Cuomo's biggest problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, MichaelNY

      His biggest problem is that he's an unlikeable prick.

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:38:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not to put too fine a point on it or anything... (0+ / 0-)

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:44:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He has sky high approval ratings. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY
        •  Last year, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming, MichaelNY

          at my close friend's wedding, I was talking with her dad, who apparently is high up enough in local Republican circles to be involve with candidate selection/support, mentioned how he thought Cuomo was doing an absolutely phenomenal job.

          Make of that what you will.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:30:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  On what basis do you think this? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem
      I don't think it's because he's more in line with their views than with ours on economics.
      I do, and his actions support such an inference. You can argue that this might not necessarily be the case, and that Cuomo's opposition to the millionaire tax from the campaign on is all strategic, but on what basis do you actually think it definitely is not the case that Cuomo is pretty much like a moderate Republican on tax policy?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 01:02:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think you're mixing up two different questions. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        His supposedly being too far to the right on tax policy may or may not be true, but it probably isn't related to his reluctance to support a fair/Democratic map and/or direct support for Republicans.

        As far as his specific views on tax policy, let's remember that he directly raised them, even if it's just temporarily right now, on actual millionaires. (Those below it, probably all the way down to the $200,000 range, probably wouldn't have been killed by a slight increase, but I don't think there's any question that singles or couples with $1,000,000 in income can afford a slight increase.) He didn't raise the taxes that would hurt those at the bottom the most, which are sales taxes (except for possibly a few very minor ones that only affect a small group of people, like booze or cigarettes or something), which is what most Republican governors propose to do. He raised income taxes, and raised them on the very, very rich. He hasn't, as far as I know, argued for any cuts in corporate taxes. The property tax cap might not be good policy (I am still unsure of my opinion on it), but it can be overridden if the local district wants it.

        New York is a high tax state to begin with. It may or may not be a good idea to raise or cut taxes, but it's simply harder to do when they are already pretty high. In reverse, it also means cuts still leave room for robust social spending. And on the spending side, New York already spends a lot (at least in some areas) on education and has the highest Medicaid costs in the country, higher than even California which has almost twice as many people.  Cuts may or may not have been justified, but we're not Mississippi when it comes to social spending.

        Maybe he's more conservative on the issue than I'd be comfortable with. Time will tell, I guess. But even if he is, at least he's not being irresponsible about it, blowing a hole in the budget and then wondering what the hell happened.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:32:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Some questions about 2016 presidential candidates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    Dem candidates. I am listing my opinions, questions, worries etc. Please let me know how much of it you think is correct.

    1. Warner - I consider him the best prospect. Centrist credentials, not as much to the right as Bayh, Southern (Clinton and Carter had the same advantage), can carry Virgnia, probably Florida without any trouble and if the economy improves, the neighboring state of North Carolina.

    What are his drawbacks?
    That he pisses off some liberal posters on DK Elections is not a drawback.

    He can raise money. He will put up a good fight in Georgia and Arizona and win most (if not all) the states that Obama carried in 2012.
    Whom do we pair him with?
    Is he the best person to win marginal seats for us?

    2. O'Malley - Can he carry North Carolina? How will he do in the south? Will his performance in MI, OH and PA be significantly better than Warner for us to gain more seats in congress? Whom do we pair him with? Bayh? Do we have a southerner to join him on the ticket?

    3. Cuomo - Being a New Yorker will be a baggage for any candidate no matter how centrist you are. I think that my #1 and #2 will be better candidates. Please tell me what you think and why.

    4. Hillary Clinton - She does not seem to have the hunger for a presidential campaign.

    5.  If 1, 2 and 3 are in the primary, how bad will the winner be bruised?

    •  Along the same lines, (0+ / 0-)

      which person does each of these potential candidates pick as his or her vice president?

      If the Republicans have a Hispanic and/or a woman on the ticket, what do Democrats do in response? Merely having one will not solve all of their problems, but if it shifts the needle a little by default and, more importantly, is part of a great outreach, it could give us trouble. But do we try to meet them in this regard? You could make a bunch of nice little pairs--Warner and Hassan, Warner and Schweitzer, Clinton and Schweitzer, Warner and Cantwell, Clinton and Warner, for instance--that hit all of the usual qualities we look for, but I'm not thinking of any names that are prominent but also nonwhite. There's Hilda Solis, I guess, but she seems like a stretch. We've got a diverse caucus in the House, but many of these Reps. are either too liberal for a national ticket or are too young.

      Then again, does our presidential candidate go for a political novice? I seem to recall Obama and/or John Kerry "considering" some high-ranking Hispanic military officer from California. That, too, seems like a stretch.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:23:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Speak for yourself (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY
      That he pisses off some liberal posters on DK Elections is not a drawback.
      And that's it?  No other possibilities?  Biden?  Schweitzer?  Warren?  Sherrod Brown?

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:29:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Clinton or Schweitzer (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, James Allen, bythesea, MichaelNY

      I know some people around here don't like Schweitzer but I think he's definitely thinking about a run so we have to consider him.  Clinton or Schweitzer because they are the only candidates who I think could "expand the map" for us in big ways.  Clinton could potentially go back into Arkansas, West Virginia, and take us into Georgia and Arizona.  Schweitzer could definitely take us into Montana, and maybe some other states.  

      Also, Clinton and Schweitzer are also very likable.  Warner,
      O'Malley, and Cuomo make Mitt Romney look charismatic (yikes).  Warner is so popular in Virginia that we could probably consider it safe for him, but that's because Virginians have seen him govern and know him very well.  It would be hard for him to take the country by storm.  It takes more than a policy wonk to do that.

      Cuomo and O'Malley are northeastern liberals.  Yes, the Kennedy's were northeastern liberals but Andrew Cuomo and Martin O'Malley, they are not Kennedy's.  I don't really find Cuomo likable at all.  Again, they may be smart, but I don't think they can win the heartland.

      VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

      by psychicpanda on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:29:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  *Hispanics! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I forgot something.  Yes.  One more reason we should pick Hillary - Bill Clinton was very popular with Hispanics, and I think Hillary won the hispanic vote in the '08 primary.  We need to keep that in mind.  We're not in any trouble with the Hispanic vote but we need to make sure we keep it, since the Republicans (if they have half a brain between them all) will make a bigger play for them in 2016.

        Plus, women.  With Hillary we could win a bigger percentage of the female vote than we have in the past.  There are a lot of female voters, by the way.

        VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

        by psychicpanda on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:34:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I only speak for myself (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IndyLiberal, lordpet8, skibum59, MichaelNY

        here, but I think Schweitzer would be excellent. He's got that fire in his belly and it shows in his presence.

        Warner's hit or miss when making an appearance. He can be far too soft spoken during an interview, but he can be good if not great on the campaign trail, as you can see here.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:42:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I said months ago if Hillary doesn't run, I am (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, lordpet8, wwmiv, MichaelNY

          team Schweitzer!

          27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

          by IndyLiberal on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:00:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  ditto. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:07:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  My main concern about Schweitzer (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, wwmiv, jncca, MichaelNY

            Is I'm not sure where he'd get his money.

            •  I assume you mean in the primaries. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, MichaelNY

              Or did you mean the general?

              He's hardly an effete liberal, but he's clearly intelligent and would probably feel confortable talking with pretty much anyone. Plus, I imagine a lot of the monied types in our party would find his no nonsense, cowboy/rancher-type personality charming and refreshing. They'd feel...hip?...supporting someone like him

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:39:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I meant the primary (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                Montana is hardly a great state for fundraising from, and his stance on guns would hurt him with a bunch of rich liberals.

                •  Is it views or style with Schweitzer and guns? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Obama's hardly pro-gun, but he's also not anti-gun. For whatever reason, it just doesn't come up.

                  If this is really a potential albatross around Schweitzer's neck, can he deal with it by simply changing his rhetoric?

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:35:11 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  potentially labor (6+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, wwmiv, jncca, gabjoh, MichaelNY, bjssp

              depending on who else was running.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:41:34 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  i don't understand what people see in (0+ / 0-)

          schweitzer. sure, he gave a great speech at the 2008 convention and i like his unconventional style. it works as a democratic governor in a red state. i'm not sure it would work as president.

          •  I didn't even think his speech in 2008 was that (0+ / 0-)

            good. I don't get his appeal either. I can't see his schtick working in the midwest or the east coast.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 02:00:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Would Schweitzer be any worse than Hillary (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              in the NoVa suburbs? If I had to guess, I'd say not in any significant way. While he's not an urban politician like Obama, none of our potential candidates is.

              But then there are rural areas. Schweitzer might be able to help us there. If you add up a few percentage points here or there in some of these states, the Republican totals drop fairly quickly.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:39:30 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Why wouldn't it work? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:39:54 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  * (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        Kennedys, no apostrophe

        lol at my grammar

        VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

        by psychicpanda on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:42:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think the competitive primary was the best (5+ / 0-)

      thing for the Dems in 2008. It drummed up huge enthusiasm for the general election among Dems and introduced the candidates to almost every state. It got a bit ugly with some of Clinton's racebaiting, which won't happen in a Warner, O'Malley, Cuomo match-up. If Clinton isn't involved in the primary, I wouldn't expect it to get too ugly overall.

      As for drawbacks on Warner, the man is duller than dirt. His 2008 convention speech was the biggest dud ever. Does he even have one issue he's passionate about like Hillary and health care or Obama and nukes? Out of the three, I'd pick O'Malley in a heartbeat. He's the most liberal, he's willing to take risks for his beliefs and he has an actual personality.

      If Hillary or Biden don't run, I expect we'll see some additional top-tier candidates. And we'll definitely get a top-tier female or minority candidate. I don't think we'll see another presidential primary on either side with the main candidates all being white men. For the Dems, I'd like to see Gillibrand or Deval Patrick run.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:34:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In my opinion: (0+ / 0-)

      I'm expecting it to be a Clinton-Warner ticket.  Warner is trying to exert his influence as one of the big 6 working on debt reduction talks.  If the economy takes a big upswing by 2016 he'll have a great case to make for himself.  

      Clinton-Warner ticket = more women turnout, Virginia delivered on a silver plate.  Hard to lose there.  

    •  South (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Maryland is a southern state. Indiana is not. If you mean someone corporate say corporate, and if you mean someone culturally southern... Bayh is not like that at all.

      I feel like this is a rehash the IL-10 profile wars -- which, by the way, I was a proponent of profile mattering in, and I think Schneider's narrow win vindicates that. But, in a Presidential election, honestly, having money and charisma is much more important than your record or profile. O'Malley and Cuomo would have enough money to reinvent themselves however they like... Warner, I suppose he'd have Wall St. money, but he's dull. Warner 2016 sounds like Pawlenty 2: Clone Wars at best, and Graham '04 at worst. That guy should have ran in 2008 if he wanted to be President.

      For a Presidential election, you're just looking at all the wrong characteristics. For example, we should all be looking much closer at Joe Biden, since he's inheriting many of Obama's staffers, and would be best poised to inherit OFA's infrastructure. And that would be the most valuable asset a candidate could have.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:35:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  MD is not southern (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MetroGnome, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        It has a handful of culturally southern rural areas that vote GOP now, but most of the population and almost all of the Dem brass lives in the culturally northern Baltimore or DC metros. I don't think that anyone would perceive O'Malley (who is from the DC burbs) as a southerner.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:49:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I mean, quite literally, it is part of the southern US: link

          And yes, no one thinks of MD as southern, which is why I asked if s/he meant someone culturally southern. It doesn't make sense any way I look at it though, because Bayh is not culturally southern. As someone else here phrased it, he's a socially liberal corporatist, which is a terrible fit for the south; and the suburban areas in NC or VA he would appeal to could be better appealed to by Hassan. Putting Bayh on a ticket with O'Malley is a bad idea, why would we want a white male ticket to face Rubio or Jindal?

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 01:02:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  arbitrary designations (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY

            I know MD and DE are sometimes thrown into the south when the US is split into 4 regions, but that's a mistake that should have been corrected a long time ago. I can't think of a single context in 2012 (as opposed to 1850) where it's useful to think of MD or DE as southern.

            I agree that there isn't much point to putting Bayh on the ticket for any of the frontrunners. If the nominee ends up being perceived by some people as exotic or unorthodox as Obama (incorrectly) was in 2008, O'Malley himself would be fine in the "generic mainstreamer" role that Biden arguably filled.

            I also agree that the ticket is not likely to be two white guys. I don't think Hassan is going to be VP unless Gillibrand doesn't want it (or is ineligible, if Cuomo wins). Gillibrand is telegenic, can raise money like there's no tomorrow, and really seems to enjoy going out and campaigning. Hassan is still basically unproven.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 01:32:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  that's a ridiculous map (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            culturally, MD is not part of "the South". you could maybe make the case that MD is part of the south geographically, but using that logic, NM, AZ, and HI are also part of the southern US.

            •  Well, it's not anymore, but it was. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea, jncca, MichaelNY

              Slave state with a history of segregationist policies.  Even Delaware, friggin Delaware, had separate but equal BS as well as bans on interracial marriage for a time.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 01:44:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I dunno... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              While I think it's true that white people in the DC/Baltimore corridor are generally not southern, the same thing cannot be said for the black population, which is, overall, pretty southern.  

              Add this to the Eastern Shore, the still culturally southern portions of the southern Western Shore, and arguably Appalachian Maryland (which I don't think is Southern, but I could see how you could say that), and you have a pretty solid majority of the territory as being southern.  

              •  The number of people who live in Apalachain MD (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                is pretty small.

              •  A majority of the territory (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem

                doesn't mean squat when most of the people don't live there.  And adding the Eastern Shore, the "still culturally southern portions of the southern Western Shore", and Appalachian Maryland (which I define as Garrett, Allegany, and Washington Counties) together is enough for about one congressional district out of eight.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:04:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  AA population (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  He included the AA population, which is enough for about three or four total districts when combined with the eastern shore the southern-esque portions of the southern western shore and I'd argue that we should incude the comically dedicated racists of southern carroll county.

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:15:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  biden will be 72 in 2016 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        and he wasn't a great presidential candidate in '08. he was, however, a great veep.

    •  I think one thing where you're very wrong is... (6+ / 0-)

      ...in saying that "being a New Yorker" is "baggage" even if a centrist.

      Our sitting President is a 2-time elected black liberal Chicago Democrat with a mixed Middle Eastern Muslim/Swahili name...the only part of his name that's remotely European is "Junior" at the end since he's his dad's namesake.

      One must rethink what "baggage" is these days.  Obama broke all the cultural rules.  The left has defeated the right in the culture war.  Time to realize and build on the victory!

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:40:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kos predicted Warner would be the '08 nominee (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      From 3/15/06

      One of the attendees asked me, "Who do you want for 2008?" I answered that my fantasy ticket was Schweitzer/Obama, and that I wasn't even close to deciding who I'd personally vote for out of the real candidates in 2008. Way too early for that.

      But, I said, "If I had to guess, and I'm not very good at this, but if I had to predict who our nominee would be in 2008, I'd say it would be Mark Warner."

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:11:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  UT-4 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Anyone want to take back anything they said about how stupid AP was for not call the race, given how close the final margin ended up being?

    30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    Truman: "The buck stops here!"
    Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

    by Marcus Graly on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:10:04 AM PST

  •  Joe Biden and Leslie Knope (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, askew, MBishop1

    I hope the Secret Service takes Leslie Knope's advice seriously and protects that precious cargo, Joe Biden.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:33:34 AM PST

    •  Pfft, here's the link. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:34:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Leslie's crush on Biden is one of my favorite (0+ / 0-)

        things about her.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:43:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Indeed. (0+ / 0-)

          Also, Biden's presence in that video shows why he's so appealing, flaws and all. Outside of Bill Clinton, I'm not sure there's anyone on the stage today that comes across as human as Biden does.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:48:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Jesse Jackson Jr. to resign from Congress. (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.suntimes.com/...

    According to the Sun-Times. It should happen very soon.

    •  Bets on turnout for the special election (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, KingTag

      10,000

      VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

      by psychicpanda on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:57:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  is there a primary? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        I'd think  it'd be reasonably high, if competitive.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:07:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think there is a primary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Yeah, turnout for the Dem primary would be decent.

        •  The primary could be higher than general (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          In a district like this, that's the real election.

          Any ideas on who might run?

          •  Toi Hutchinson, Debbie Halvorson, Anthony Beale (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...and Emil Jones III are four names that immediately come to mind. Halvorson tried to primary JJJ in March of this year but got blown out big time. Hutchinson was appointed to Halvorson's state senate seat after Halvorson was elected to congress from the old Kankakee-LaSalle based IL-11 in 2008, so I'm thinking that only one of those two will run. Beale is a Chicago alderman who has some ethical issues, specifically, he attended a fundraiser put on by Chicago's taxicab industry and then changed proposed ordinances to benefit the taxicab industry. Jones III's dad was a former state senate president, and Jones III won his dad's state senate seat when he retired a few years ago.

            Of those four, Hutchinson, Beale, and Jones III are Black and Halvorson is White.

            Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:49:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Will Cecilia Tkaczyk give dems the NY St. Senate? (4+ / 0-)

    This is a wonderfully funny write-up of the challenge Cecilia, the democrat running in NY State Senate District 46, has until all absentee votes are counted Friday:

    http://www.dailygazette.com/...

    I think she will pull it off -- barely.  This will ensure the democrats a 32-31 lead in the state senate.  That is, of course, assuming the IDC caucuses with, you know, actual democrats.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:59:27 AM PST

    •  If not, that's a paddlin' (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:43:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can't the dems just take a page from the TN Dems? (5+ / 0-)

      Just vote the IDC into the leadership roles and have a majority. Basically offer the IDC a better deal than what Republicans have offered.

      Also as much as Cuomo doesn't like the current Senate D leadership what does he think of the IDC?
      I'm inclined to believe he'd probably dislike them less than the current D leadership.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:49:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The IDC is really bad though. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, MichaelNY

        They're basically Pedro Espada 2.0 (politically syncretic & ethically dubious) Politically all they care about is patronage deals and property tax relief; at that point you might as well let Skelos stay in power. It wouldn't be that different, and I shudder to think what we'll end up having to take responsibility for if Klein (leader of the IDC) became majority leader.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:41:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        the Senate Majority Leader is one of the three most powerful people in the state of New York. It's not a position that any Democrat would want to give away lightly.

  •  Handel for Senate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    You'll all remember her from the Komen-foundation disaster.  
    Wondering if she'd be able to take out Chambliss, would probably be a funny primary to watch

    (click)

    •  Interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      During the GOP primary for governor, I believe she was perceived as the more moderate choice(vs. Rep Nathan Deal). So a run against Chambliss from the right is interesting.

      I'm skeptical right now that Chambliss would be primaried, but I guess if he voted for a budget deal that conservatives disliked, that might be enough to lose the primary.

      I'm a little surprised there wasnt a tea party challenge to Johnny Isakson in 2010.

      •  I think these primary leaks are done to reign (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        in senators who might be being too open to bipartisanship - Saxby Shameless is working with Warner right now, both co-chairing a gang of x type and this is nothing but a shot across the bow of Shameless to obstruct and not do anything silly like work with Dems.  

        I'd love a messy primary in Georgia, because if Dems got an A-List recruit I think it could be flipped in the right situation.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:42:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Halllllll-e-lujah! (0+ / 0-)

      (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

      I'd love to see Max Cleland run one last time for his old seat, though.

    •  She'll win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      if she does get in. Unfortunately the Democratic party Georgia have been completely nearly irrelevant.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:02:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Apparently, Obama made a Nate Silver reference (9+ / 0-)

    at the turkey pardon.

    Said that Nate Silver got it right, when he predicted the turkeys would be pardoned. :)

  •  2016 presidential candidates (0+ / 0-)

    I listed some presidential candidates above.

    Warner, O'Malley and Cuomo.

    Clinton is not interested at the moment and unlikely as she gets older.

    This is not a complete list by any means.

    My criteria for considering candidates are the following (not necessarily in order of importance and not the only criteria. I may add or change this after seeing your points):

    1. How good the candidate would be after winning the primary.

    2. How is he going to help us win congressional seats.

    At the moment I do not know any suitable Hispanic or African-American candidate . Are there any? I just do not know any Democratic politician with the same stature as Rubio. Please tell me about some.

    I strongly doubt Biden will be our next candidate. There are advatages though. Warner (if he is not the VP candidate) will remain in the senate. This is important. Right now, if anything happens to Warner or Kaine, McDonnell will be the Virginia senator.
    We badly need to win the VA goverorship. Without it, we lose our VA senator. This is Warner's biggest drawback I can think of.

    Warner Schweitzer ticket would be fine. But does Schweitzer have enough appeal to win the primary and then the election? I see Warner better positioned than him.

    I do not like like the way Cuomo is dealing with the Dem state senators. However, I cannot blame him. The 2 years the dems were in power, they leadership came across as charlatans.

    •  Not sure why anybody thinks a Clinton (8+ / 0-)

      run is unlikely. If she truly did not want it, her people would have let it be known. Clinton has so to make certain denials. Especially before the election and while she is still SoS. It's standard stuff for any politician. I'd bet good money that she will run.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:58:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She says clearly NO many times (7+ / 0-)

        She's Shermanesque every time it comes up.

        I'm sorry but it deserves a big sigh to read someone say "not sure why anybody thinks a Clinton run is unlikely."  "Why" is that she keeps saying it's out of the question.

        I think it's very clear she's not going to run without a lot of convincing by others to do something she's not inclined to do.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:04:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Unfortunately (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

          And I say this as a huge Hillary supporter:

          The big problem is that she is ended up convinced, she won't be the best candidate as her heart won't truly be in it.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:18:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I know I'm speculating, but that is beyond (0+ / 0-)

            the pale. How do you know how she feels? Are you a close personal confidant?

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:04:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  W. T. Hell. (6+ / 0-)

              are you seriously trying to pull this one on a DKE member?

              It isn't beyond the pale at all. In fact, DCC has made the exact same argument at times. Why do you think Tommy Thompson was such an awful candidate? Because he was drafted to do so. His heart was not in it at all. People who run but are not truly wanting to run (which Hillary does seem like because, frankly, she's made Sherman-esque statements for almost three years now - something that doesn't require me to be a close personal confidant of hers to realize) never do well as candidates. Never.

              I repeat exactly what DCC said and then what I said:

              I think it's very clear she's not going to run without a lot of convincing by others to do something she's not inclined to do.
              The big problem is that if she is ended up convinced, she won't be the best candidate as her heart won't truly be in it.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:02:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Because, like I said, this speculation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          could have been ended very quickly and easily. It hasn't been. Bill Clinton has rebuilt his standing in the Democratic party after 2008 and they are prepping for a run. Fortunately she gets to have a 2 year break to enjoy herself.

          I could be wrong, but I've never been more certain of something.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:03:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Seems strange to be so confident (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, MichaelNY

            I certainly wouldn't bet money against her running, but I wouldn't bet on her running either.  I don't know what signs she has given that have convinced you so much that she is preparing to run in 2016.

          •  You're guilty of what you accuse others (6+ / 0-)

            You say above to wwmiv:  "How do you know how she feels? Are you a close personal confidant?"

            But now you say "they are prepping for a run."

            Well, how do you know that?  Are you a close personal confidant?  I suspect the answer is a clear NO.

            Hillary has ended the speculation over and over again, every single time she's asked.

            Your comment reads purely wishful, that's what I think it is.

            That's fine to wish it, I realize you're a Hillary fan and that's fine.

            But it's not reasonable to suggest the evidence supports you.  It very clearly does not.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:53:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  So... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, MichaelNY

            This was Hillary Clinton being coy about whether she wants to run or not?

            Q- Would you like to be president of the United States?

            No

            Q- Why not?

            Because I have the best job I could ever have. This is a moment in history where it is almost hard to catch your breath. There are both the tragedies and disasters that we have seen from Haiti to Japan and there are the extraordinary opportunities and challenges that we see right here in Egypt and in the rest of the region. So I want to be part of helping to represent the United States at this critical moment in time, to do everything I can in support of the president and our government and the people of our country to stand for our values and our ideals, to stand up for our security, which has to remain first and foremost in my mind and to advance America's interests. And there isn't anything that I can imagine doing after this that would be as demanding, as challenging or rewarding.

            Q- President of the United States?

            You know, I had a wonderful experience running and I am very proud of the support I had and very grateful for the opportunity, but I'm going to be, you know, moving on.

            Q- I asked my viewers and followers on Twitter to send questions and a lot of them said, "Ask her if she'll run in 2016 for the presidency." A lot of folks would like to you to do that.

            Well that's very kind, but I am doing what I want to do right now and I have no intention or any idea even of running again. I'm going to do the best I can at this job for the next two years.

            What others want her to do has been driving this speculation, not Hillary Clinton herself. If she had any inkling of running, it would be a lot easier for her to say "I haven't thought that far ahead" or "Right now I'm concentrating on being Secretary of State, so I can't answer that right now".

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:23:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  We don't really have any (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Deval Patrick is probably the closest.

    •  My order of preference (6+ / 0-)

      would be:

      1. Clinton
      2. Schweitzer
      3. Biden
      4. ...surely there's some other interesting Dem who might be interested in running? Someone mentioned Cantwell (very speculatively)?
      5. Tommy Carcetti
      6. Anybody but Cuomo
      7. A bag of rocks (i.e., Warner)
      8. ...
      9. Cuomo, I guess

  •  Conservadems to take out? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, MichaelNY

    Other than Dan Lipinski and Stephen Lynch, are there any conservadems in safe seats that we should look at primarying from the left?

    NY-7 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:13:04 PM PST

  •  Holy crap (8+ / 0-)

    correct me if I'm wrong, but I've been going through the election results, taking into account redistricting and such, and I believe that we are now at the point where Republicans now hold zero seats in the House that John Kerry would have won the votes of.  Literally every single one of the 234 incoming Republicans of the next House session represent districts Bush won in 2004.

    •  PA-08? (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, jj32, jncca, DCCyclone, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      I'm pretty sure I heard it was still a Kerry district.  The shift after redistricting was pretty minor here.  

      •  I think you're right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        The GOP boosted it by a couple points, but Kerry had won the old version 51-48.  I think he still narrowly carried the new version in that case.

        I'm also taking a closer look at Peter King's new district, which changed from one Obama lost 47-52 in 2008 to a district in which he would have won 51-48.  Obama's overperformance of Kerry was minor on Long Island, though it did vary by area.  For instance, on the old version of King's district Obama 2008 basically just matched Kerry 2004.  However the old version of Steve Israel's seat let Obama improve by 5 points over Kerry.  So I'm not sure how large Obama's overperformance was in King's new district, since they really shuffled the districts around in that area.

        Still I think it's pretty impressive they're down to 1, or perhaps 2 seats that Kerry only narrowly carried.  After the 2004 election they held 19 seats that Kerry had won.

    •  even CA31? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, hankmeister

      The area has shifted toward Dems since 2004, but the GOP won it this year only because of a Charles Djou situation.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 01:17:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bob Vanderplaats and social cons push back (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    on recriminations against them:
    http://www.mnprogressiveproject.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 01:05:53 PM PST

    •  Ironic coming from him, because... (4+ / 0-)

      ...had he beaten Branstad in the 20210 IA-Gov GOP primary (it was 9 points, much closer than expected), then Culver would've had no worse than a 50-50 chance of reelection.  Vanderplaats himself is another Angle/Buck/Joe Miller/LePage-type extremist and recognized as such.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 02:55:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney drops to 47.53% (9+ / 0-)
    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict     12m
    CO: Denver just reported 12,259 new Obama votes, 3,356 Romney. @MittRomney just fell to 47.53% nationally
    •  Which also makes PA the tipping point state (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, BeloitDem, itskevin, MichaelNY

      by a solid amount, at this point.  CO 5.5%  PA 5.02%

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:05:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, LordMike, MichaelNY

        Who would have called Obama doing better in Colorado than Pennsylvania?  There were even people who expected Obama to do better in Ohio than Colorado.  

        It's clear that SW Pennsylvania is responsible for this.  If Obama had hit Kerry numbers in SW PA, that could have been worth a percent or two more.

        It's interesting to compare Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Kerry won the former by 3.4%, the latter by 2.5%.  Eight years later, and the margins are 9.5% and 5% respectively.  All of Michigan shifted towards Obama, but SW PA kept us down relatively.

        •  And also in comparison to Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          which was a razor-close 0.4% win for Kerry, yet won comfortably by 6.7% this time, a much better swing than Pennsylvania which went from 2.5% to 5%.

          Even more impressive considering Paul Ryan, and all the conservative spending on Wisconsin this year.

        •  What's even more interesting is that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tommypaine, MichaelNY

          was with Romney going at saturation in Colorado and a token amount in Pennsylvania to get the media speaking.  I'd be interested to know how Romney could have done had he gone heavily into Pennsylvania.

          The Pennsylvania results aren't that surprising in the context of Obama's further sinking across Appalachia though, since eastern PA didn't trend much at all.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:36:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree... (7+ / 0-)

          It's not about SWPA.  SWPA has been moving away from the dems at roughly the same rate (accounting for national swing) since 1988.  

          What it's about is that Obama stopped improving in SEPA, and even reversed course a bit.  He held up well in the Democratic areas of Northeastern PA, Erie, and Allegheny county.  He held his own in Harrisburg.  He did great in Philly, and improved in Delaware County, which is becoming the minority-heavy suburban county.  

          But everywhere else Obama carried in 2008, he had big reversions.  He lost Centre county.  The inroads he made in South-Central PA (particularly Lancaster County) vanished.  He lost ground relative to national swing in Berks and the Lehigh Valley.  He even lost a few percent more than his national swing in Chester, Bucks, and even Montgomery County.  

          This isn't to say Republicans are going to win back Montgomery County on the presidential level any time soon.  I think Romney was a uniquely good candidate for the Republicans in certain parts of the country (like the Philly burbs) where there were a lot of wealthy white voters who leaned Republican, but voted for Obama in 2008.  Still, this was the first time in 20 years some of these counties didn't drift a bit further to the left.  It's troubling, but it explains why it was unusually close this year.  

          •  Obama's performance in Bucks was poor (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

            even in comparison to John Kerry. Not sure what happened there, except that I think it's pretty white in comparison to the other two collar counties.

            Obama really underperformed surprisingly in SEPA IMO. SWPA was a given for that.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:20:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  2004 v. 2012 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingTag, MichaelNY, andgarden

              Kerry got 51.1% in Bucks, while Obama got 50.0%. That's a pretty big plummet relatively speaking.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:51:45 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Turnout appears to have been down in Bucks County (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                unless the numbers aren't finished updating.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:51:51 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I suspect much of this is to do with (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, andgarden, bjssp, James Allen

              The lack of attention of both campaigns until the final week. A bit like Minnesota being closer than expected in 2008 because Obama took it for granted.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 02:47:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's why I am not (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                all that worried about SWPA over the long term. Allegheny County is still very strong for us, and might become stronger if we contested it strongly. If we can stay about 40 percent in the surrounding ones, we should be fine.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:49:40 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  I still find it crazy that the tipping point state (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        borodino21, itskevin, MichaelNY

        was one basically nobody paid attention to.

        Not that elastic, but still...

    •  come on, 47.47%! :) n/t (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, askew, lordpet8, MichaelNY
    •  Maybe (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem

      If Romney gets 47% of the vote then there might be a God

      We only think nothing goes without saying.

      by Hamtree on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:32:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also Obama's margin (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, bythesea, askew, MBishop1, MichaelNY

      is now up to a full 3.25 points.

  •  God I hope Mike Coffman runs against Hick (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sawolf, MichaelNY

    He'll get smacked down hard, and it will get his racist ass out of the house.

    •  Plus we'd pick up his seat in a heartbeat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I'd imagine if the seat were open that state senator Morgan Carroll run and win, though Miklosi could probably do it too with whatever residual name rec he has helping considerably.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:41:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup, that's part of the calculus there. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY
        •  CO6 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, bfen, MichaelNY

          I would guess that the national GOP would lean on Coffman to stay in the House instead of attempting an uphill run against Udall. I don't think an open seat would be a cakewalk for Dems in 2014 (it would probably look like this year's race in AZ9) or that Coffman would even be favored in 2016, but the GOP would have a better chance of holding it with Coffman than with anyone else.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:57:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  This (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            CO6 is far from a natural Dem seat, and there's a pretty good chance the winds won't be blowing our direction in two years. Coffman would be a slight favorite over Carroll or Romanoff, and a bigger one over Miklosi (who would lose a primary to ANY decent Dem ... people here are pretty disappointed in his campaign.) In an open seat, Carroll or Romanoff would be favored but only slightly, and anyone else would be at best a draw. This district is heavily Aurora, Colorado's 3rd biggest city, and it had a popular Republican mayor and council majority for some time. And the rest of the district is the Republican part.

  •  CA-SD 5, Dem pulls into lead (17+ / 0-)

    Democrat Cathleen Galgiani has pulled into the lead for the first time.

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    •  Amazing (9+ / 0-)

      If this holds, we'll have won every competitive state senate race.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:45:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Boom! (5+ / 0-)

      If this somehow holds its will be next to impossible for the R's to take back 1/3 in the senate in 2014.
      They'd need to have a net gain of 3 seats

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:11:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What does this bump the Dems up to? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bythesea

      2/3rds barrier busted and it's to infinity and beyond.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:15:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  28-12, I think. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCal

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:29:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  29D-11R (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

          assuming Galgiani wins

          just one seat away from 3/4 control!

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:40:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Any chance of additional gains in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in either chamber? Does the GOP have a decent shot at breaking our supermajority in the assembly then?

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:41:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  well If you look at the Assembly (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, sawolf, MichaelNY

              we had some close races that Republicans won. We can definitely target AD36 and AD 40. In both cases the Democrat mustered over 48% of the vote

              http://graphics.latimes.com/...

              The senate will be more defensive. We may have a shot at winning one more additional seat, but keep in mind it will hard to hold on to the other open Dem held seat in the OC.

              "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

              by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:47:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  The Senate 2/3rds will be secure (6+ / 0-)

              And I'm inclined to say that the Assembly might end up being safe as well, but that's more of a wait and see. I'm certain that we will at least make the GOP play defense in SD-12, but regardless, the 2/3rds is cushioned do the gains made this year.

              The GOP has a chance at picking up a seat in Orange County, which got more Republican and will be open, but that seat has seen the GOP registration edge erode and it voted 2% more for Obama than it did in 2008. That is their only chance for a pick up.

              26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

              by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:54:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  State Senate CA (0+ / 0-)

              There is supposedly a Democratic held seat in the state senate [under the old lines] which is reputably Republican [new lines]

          •  Wow, even better! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:43:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  well Governor Brown won't have (6+ / 0-)

        to worry about having his nominees stalled in the senate for starters.

        More importantly since we have a few Dem senators resigning since they won elections to congress, these extra seats mean we will have two 2/3rds at the start and won't have to wait for special elections to fill the vacancies.

        The Dems really hit the jackpot this year, hopefully we will see a push for same day voter registration in the near future.

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:30:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  state Sen. Doug La Malfa (R) is also resigning (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          to become congressman of CA-01, replacing Herger.

          •  That race was closer than expected. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            LaMalfa only won 58%-42%. OK, it's not that close, but the district is in the only part of the state where there have not been dramatic demographic changes. What gives?

            http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

            by redrelic17 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:55:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Open seats are by nature closer (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              incumbency is what allows representatives to start racking up 70%+ victories.

              Obama got 42% in the seat in 2008 so it would follow that there's a reasonably significant Dem base here.  It's not Utah.

              But you're on to something, almost every California Republican was held under 60%, or just barely over that.  They are in serious trouble long-term, if these trends continue.  With the latest numbers in, Obama is now up by a full 22 points over Romney in the state, putting the state 19 points more Dem than the country as a whole.  We're starting to get near New York numbers, and if that continues, the delegation could get really lopsided in the future.  As in, Republicans only have like 7 safe districts in the entire state.  The rest Obama either won or came within a few points of winning.

              •  Retirement Slump (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                This tendency is called in the literature the retirement slump.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 01:12:12 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  How much did Herger's district change? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, redrelic17

                I believe it was fairly close in 2010, despite no major effort on our part.

                I know many are skeptical of our chances in 2014 of taking back the House, but we've got at least a few seats that look competitive in California. Hell, perhaps we can turn most if not all of the state blue.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:45:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  CA house (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  CA31 [San Bernardino] looks like it is likely D.  We messed up the primary this year, leaving 2 Republicans in the top two

                  CA10 Stanislaus [Denham R] should be fought again.  

                  CA21, we lost major league.  For Ds to win it, we need to turn out the low performing Hispanics

                  But on the other hand, there are a number of seats which we won by fairly low margins, that have to be defended

                  CA07 [Bera, Sacramento]

                  CA24 [Capps. coast between LA and Ventura county is on the borderline of being contestable

                  CA26 [Ventura County]

                  CA52 [San Diego] One of the seats that went into overtime for counting votes.

                  CA36 [Riverside, Ruiz]

                  CA09 is on the border of being contestable.  This is almost the same area that was commented on above for the State Senate seat [Berryhill] where we won in overtime. The difference is that, at the present, CA09 has some very liberal, working class areas in Contra Costa County.  After 2022 these areas will probably be taken out.

                  CA03[Garamendi]  to me seems to be likely D, but could be considered on the borderline.

                  CA16 will continually depend on turnout. We had a scare in 2010, and it moved slightly right in the redistricting.

                  Some of the above seats I would not ordinarily mention, but have been mentioned at RRH, so I have included them.

                  CA25[McKeon [R],north Los Angeles County]  Sometime this decade may come within range , especially if open

                  So many of the Central Valley districts we Ds depend on a more or less undependable turnout of Hispanic voters.
                  From north to south, the folloing districts
                  CA03, CA07, CA09, CA10, CA16, CA21

    •  Fantastic. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      You know what else is amazing? Of the 20 state senate districts up for election, the Democratic candidate only failed to achieve 40% in a single district, the first district!

      2016 will be defense and offense for Democrats in the state senate if trends continue.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 11:52:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem

        things are starting to get really unbalanced.  For all the GOP complaints about the new Senate map, Dems are still relatively packed and the GOP relatively spread efficiently.  And they still couldn't avoid falling under 1/3.

        We're getting close to a transformative point in California, where soon most of the remaining Republicans will suddenly find themselves perpetually facing close races, whereas the vast majority of the Democrats are beyond safe.  Basically, what has happened to New York.

        •  also (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          Now that they are completely shut out of power, GOP candidates will likely find it much harder to raise money.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 07:12:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Does this affect national Republicans, too? (0+ / 0-)

            Or does it help them? Neither?

            On the one hand, you figure that it frees up money for other candidates that aren't running in California. Considering how expensive that might get, that's probably a good chunk of money. On the other hand, does this hurt their ability to establish relationships with people that can lend considerable support to all Republicans?

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:47:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  this district (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      probably supported Prop 8 by a hefty margin, but just voted for an open lesbian. Same for CA-41 with an openly gay man. Somewhat heartening.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:54:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-AD-77 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Brett Hulsey, who calls himself a "progressive Democrat", and was recently re-elected to the Wisconsin State Assembly in AD-77, insulted recently-fired progressive talk radio host John "Sly" Sylvester via Twitter, saying that "Sly will bully no more on WTDY".

    First, Hulsey was charged with disorderly conduct after roughing up a young boy, and now he insulted a progressive talk radio host after he was fired. Looks like a 2014 primary challenge is in order for Hulsey, doesn't it?

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:19:13 PM PST

  •  Celebrating a media fail (13+ / 0-)

    Courtesy of who else, Politico!:  

    I remember from the time how some political journalists were insisting Mourdock is no Angle, Dems can't make hey of him, even after his "inflict his opinion" comment.

    They looked wrong at the time, and looked downright foolish now.

    I've never lived through an election that provided us with so many gloating opportunities, so many opportunities to throw "you were wrong" in GOPers' and political journalists' faces.  It's an embarrassment of emotional riches.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:22:22 PM PST

  •  Romney drops to 47.1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Silvan Elf

    Due to a California vote dump.

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict     39s
    CA: Obama 120,222 new votes, Romney 72,759 (mostly Riverside, San Diego, Placer, San Bernardino, San Mateo, Marin)
  •  Just noticed Obama improved some in Gwinnett Co GA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    went from 54.6-44.3% McCain to 54.0%-44.6% Obama.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:03:17 PM PST

  •  For a MUCH better map of county shifts since 2008 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem

    than the NYT take a look at the Wall Street Journal. Link here:

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    Unfortunately it isn't updated (e.g. Obama did worse in L.A. County). But the general gist is there and you can actually pick out patterns.

    http://mypolitikal.com/

    by Inoljt on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 01:13:38 AM PST

  •  That Blumenthal article about (5+ / 0-)

    our polling is fairly accurate.

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