This is a comparison of the various house race ratings... And I will be identify who is the most accurate of the experts following the results.
Currently based on my house race ratings I am projecting a house still controlled by the Republicans 229 - 206... But that is my head talking - my heart says that it will 224 - 211, a far narrower margin. Why the difference ? Well Lean D doesn't guarantee a Dem win and vice versa, so my prediction is different to what my house race ratings projection says... I am an optimist even when the polls are not so good.
I was hoping to have this done earlier... but life has its challenges at the moment!
So this is more for posterity than anything given there is not much time for a debate.
THE WAY THIS DIARY IS SET UP MEANS THAT YOU WILL NEED TO VIEW THE DOCS IN FULLSCREEN
Apologies for any errors and omissions...
Apologies in advance to those non-DKE types for your local races that I have rated Safe R - I realise that your candidate will win because truth and justice will prevail... But in a few hours they will lose and I envy your enthusiasm in these blood red seats.
With regards to the map I was close to making many of my Lean GOP races Likely GOP - particularly NY-11, MT-AL, ND-AL and IN-08.
I use my ratings as the key for the two charts below. I will update this diary later on the comparison between the pundits.
Race Ratings Comparison - The Experts
Race Ratings Comparison - The DKE Crew
I didnt have time to add in a few other race ratings... particular where a full diary hasn't been done. I also didnt have time to update jncca's prediction, but these are contained in an excellent diary here.
Apologies again if I got anything wrong.
Polling Ready Reckoner for Close Races
Here is a handy little polling ready reckoner that I have come up with... Not meant to compete with the fancy graphs with all the data put in, but I need something a bit different. IN-08 is the only competitive race where there is no polling available - That probably means it is not good for us, but the teabagger incumbent obviously isnt performing over and above either. Please let me know what you think. The X on the right hand side of the table is a link to that particular poll.
This is just a bit of fun really... 224 Republican Seats and 211 Democrat Seats. This projection of the election outcome involves a few upsets... Such as Vilsack wins IA-04 (even though I give IA-03 to Latham). We also win TX-14... but still lose TN-04 despite the controversy.
The basic theme of my fairly optimistic prediction (assuming 4 regions) is that the Dems win big across the board... winning a majority of competitive races, but still falling well short of a majority. They win especially big in the west especially in California, Arizona and Colorado with only NV-03, CA-21 and CA-36 disappointing. They also have reasonably strong performances in the South, especially in Florida (where I give Demming and Murphy wins), and with Barrow winning his last election by a hair.
For the Mid-West Cravaack (MN-08), Benishek (MI-01), Renacci (OH-16), Johnson (OH-06) and the Dems win all competitive Illinois races.
In the North East the Dems gaining both New Hampshire seats, while Tierney wins MA-06. Dem incumbents all hold on in New York (of course I am in no way confident for Hochul) and we take back NY-18 off Hayworth.
Other DKE Rating Diaries
3:14 PM PT: DKE changed NM-01 to Safe Dem at the last minute, as well as changing NY-24 to Toss-Up.