Polls have just closed in Arizona, where Republicans are choosing between 2010 nominee Jesse Kelly, state Sen. Frank Antenori, former Air Force combat pilot Martha McSally, and broadcaster Dave Sitton to represent them in the June special election to fill ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords' seat. The winner will take on former Giffords aide Ron Barber, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Results: AP | AZ SoS
7:32 PM PT (jeffmd): While we're waiting for the ever-elusive first precinct to finish inhaling, a quick overview of what happened in 2010: the tea-flavored Jesse Kelly beat establishment pick, then state Sen. Jonathan Paton 49-42. (Paton, is, of course, now running for the redrawn AZ-01)
Kelly did particularly well in the non-Tucson/Pima County parts of the district, mostly Cochise County (51% Kelly). While he also did well in Pinal and Santa Cruz Cos., they have only a small fraction of the GOP electorate.
7:38 PM PT (James L): Ah, Roll Call's Abby Livingston points out that results won't start being reported until 8pm local time (11pm Eastern). So put down that spliff -- it's not break time just yet.
8:15 PM PT (jeffmd): We got a large dump of votes from Pima County, with 280 of 281 precincts there now at least partially reporting. Kelly leads Martha McSally 38-23, with state Sen. Frank Antenori back at 20 and broadcaster Dave Sitton at 19.
Since Pima was Kelly's weakest county last time, this surely bodes well for him...
8:20 PM PT (jeffmd): About half of Cochise County is reporting now too. Kelly's stronger 46% there brings the total to Kelly 39 - McSally 23, with Antenori still at 20 and Sitton now at 17.
8:24 PM PT (jeffmd): A quick clarification on what's reporting where: in Pima County, almost all early votes have reported (280 of 281 precincts). Meanwhile, in Cochise County, it's Election Day votes in 32 of 64 precincts.
8:26 PM PT (jeffmd): All of Santa Cruz County is now reporting; Kelly wins over Antenori there 34-28, but doesn't tip the overall scale from Kelly 39 - McSally 23 - Antenori 20.
More likely than not Kelly's got this.
8:30 PM PT (jeffmd): Add Pinal County's two precincts to the blend; Kelly still leads McSally 39-24 with Antenori still mired in 3rd at 20.
8:53 PM PT (jeffmd):
8:55 PM PT (jeffmd): A few Election Day precincts from Pima County are starting to report. McSally is winning those, but there aren't enough votes to substantially move the needle, which is still 39-24 Kelly.
9:18 PM PT (jeffmd): I'm guessing that after this ganja break, this hot dog shown on the front page of the Arizona Daily Star (Tucson's local paper) would sure be tasty...
9:27 PM PT (jeffmd): Another set of election-day votes from Pima County, where McSally continues to run slightly stronger. But...really, it won't be enough. Kelly's got this in the bag.
9:37 PM PT (jeffmd): 30 more precincts partially reporting in Cochise County. McSally continues to improve slightly...but the outcome isn't really in doubt.
9:55 PM PT (jeffmd): And finally, the AP calls this for Jesse Kelly. Ultimately, this looks like it'll finish at about a 12-point win for Kelly down from 13 points currently, based on McSally's strength in Election Day votes.
And with that, DKE is calling it a night!