StephenCLE’s election ratings – June 30, 2020
Hello everybody and welcome to StephenCLE’s election ratings. 18 weeks remain prior to election day, and things could not be more positive for democrats up and down the ballot. Here are my current ratings for the Presidency, Senate, and House.
My ratings take many different factors into account. For the presidency, Trump national favorability and approval rating as well as state polling numbers are the dominant criteria. For the Senate, these criteria were utilized along with incumbency and fundraising numbers and candidate strength. In the House, candidate strength, incumbency, and fundraising numbers were all considered, but the generic congressional ballot was also a major criteria.
To the electoral college!
2020 Presidential Ratings:
Safe D – 186 EVs (VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI)
Likely D – 61 EVs (ME, NH, VA, MI, MN, CO, NV)
Lean D – 70 EVs (PA, FL, WI, AZ)
Toss Up – 95 EVs (ME-2, NE-2, OH, NC, GA, IA, TX)
Lean R – 3 EVs (MT)
Likely R – 51 EVs (SC, IN, MS, MO, KS, UT, AK)
Safe R – 71 EVs (WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA, OK, ND, SD, WY, ID)
The polling data is pretty undeniable right now. Biden is leading by anywhere from 8-12 points nationally at the moment, which means we are heading to an electoral count on the level of 2008 at a minimum, and maybe much higher. State level polling is showing Biden clearly ahead in all of the tipping point states like Wisconsin and Arizona, and pretty much a dead heat in other states ancillary to the democratic road to 270, like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. You’ll also notice that I moved a bunch of states out of Safe R without polling to really corroborate, except for Kansas and Utah which did have fairly recent poll numbers. I figure if Biden is up by close to 10 nationally, that means states like Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina are most likely within single digits, and any further erosion for Trump could put these states in play for Biden.
2020 Senate Ratings:
D Not up for Election – 35 seats
Safe D – 9 seats – MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, MN, NM, OR
Likely D – 4 seats – NH, MI, CO, AZ
Lean D – 2 seats – ME, NC
Toss Up – 3 seats – GA, IA, MT
Lean R – 4 seats – AL, KS, TX, AK
Likely R – 2 seats – SC, KY
Safe R – 10 seats – WV, TN, MS, LA, AR, OK, NE, SD, WY, ID
R Not up for Election – 30 seats
Incomplete – GA-special (headed to runoff)
Onto the Senate, where the Democrats are looking to take control of the chamber, and as of right now, I think they are favored to do that. Much like the presidential map, the Senate map is looking very favorable for democrats now compared to several months ago. The democrats are either safe or likely to defend all of their own seats except for Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, where I actually have him still leaning toward defeat due to how big Trump is likely to win Alabama by. Given that loss, democrats have to pick up 4 seats (assuming a Biden presidential win) to take control of the chamber. Dems are virtually a lock to pick up Colorado and Arizona, where Cory Gardner and Martha McSally are both losing by double digits. After that, the next 2 most likely pickups are Maine and North Carolina, where Susan Collins is losing to Sara Gideon and Thom Tillis is losing to Cal Cunningham. Both republican incumbents are mired in the low 40s in polling, which usually indicates an incumbent is toast. Those seats right there would get Dems to 50, which at this point I feel is a worst case scenario.
From there, we have other good pickup targets in Georgia and Iowa, 2 states that are also toss up in the presidential race, and Montana, where popular governor Steve Bullock is expected to run well ahead of Joe Biden. For sake of ratings I don’t have the GA special election listed as that race is almost certain to not be resolved on election night and will be going to a runoff in January. Along with Alabama, I have Texas, Kansas, and Alaska all listed at Lean R as well. Texas is there mostly due to the fact that it is Toss Up in the presidential and I don’t see John Cornyn being able to outrun Donald Trump by more than 5 or so points. Kansas’s rating is a placeholder while we wait to see if unpopular Kris Kobach ends up as the republican nominee. If he is, Kansas will move to tossup, whereas if the more mainstream Roger Marshall wins it, it’ll be a tougher slog. Lastly, Alaska is the one race we know next to nothing about. I think it could be competitive because there seems to be a wholesale rejection of Trumpism in the West. If other states highly libertarian in values like Montana are looking competitive for Dems, you’d figure Alaska will follow suit.
2020 House Ratings:
Safe D – 198 seats – (includes pickups in NC-2 and NC-6)
Likely D – 22 seats – NH-1, NJ-5, NJ-11, NY-18, NY-19, PA-8, PA-17, VA-2, GA-6, FL-13, MI-11, IL-14, IA-2, TX-7, TX-23, TX-32, AZ-1, NV-3, NV-4, CA-21, CA-39, CA-45
Lean D – 13 seats – ME-2, NJ-7, PA-1, VA-7, GA-7, MI-8, IA-1, IA-3, KS-3, TX-24, UT-4, CA-25, CA-48
Toss Up – 17 seats – NY-11, NY-22, NY-24, NJ-2, NJ-3, PA-10, SC-1, OH-1, MI-3, IL-13, MN-1, NE-2, OK-5, TX-21, TX-22, NM-2, AZ-6,
Lean R – 17 seats – NY-2, VA-5, NC-8, FL-15, FL-16, OH-10, OH-12, IN-5, MO-2, MN-7, KS-2, TX-2, TX-10, TX-25, MT-1, WA-3, AK-1
Likely R – 16 seats – NY-1, NY-21, PA-16, NC-9, GA-11, FL-18, OH-14, MI-6, KY-6, MN-8, AR-2, TX-3, TX-31, CO-3, CA-22, CA-50
Safe R – 152 seats
Now comes the real meat and potatoes, the House of Representatives. In 2018 the democrats gave Trump, the GOP, and gerrymandering the wag of the finger. At this point the question is not whether the GOP can make a run at reclaiming the chamber, but rather can democrats expand their majority. The generic ballot average according to 538 is a 49-41 Democratic advantage, which is right on the 8% national victory the democrats had 2 years ago. Based on that alone, you’d figure that the outcome in 2020 would end up similar. Also, polling in suburban house districts seems to be revealing a wholesale rejection of Trumpism. Some numbers from districts like PA-1, MI-3, and others have been downright scary for the GOP and likely have House republicans scurrying for the barricades. For that reason, I think if Democrats do win nationally by 8% like they did in 2018, that is going to translate into 5-10 more seats than they won in 2018. As of now I have 198 districts safe for Dems, 22 as likely, and 14 as lean. Democrats currently have 7 pickups to just 1 for the republicans. If Dems lost every district currently in Toss Up they would still finish with 233 seats, or a net of 0. If they swept Toss Up, they would finish with 250 seats, or +17. In the scenario where Dems outperform the generic ballot and win by double digits nationally, they would probably start picking off seats currently sitting in Lean R and maybe even a couple in Likely R. Again, I would look for suburban areas to fall first.
Well, that’s this week’s update. My next update will be forthcoming on July 21st. I’m more than happy to receive your feedback and respond in the comments.