Well now that was one hell of a midterm election wasn’t it?
I would, to be honest, have been happy with 3 or 4 pick ups in California but 7 woweeeeee.
So what’s left and what should we be targeting? Yes yes I know we should be chasing all 7 of the GOP districts but which ones are more likely than the others?
So let’s take a little look see...
7 districts left to flip and at least 6 of them are the reddest in California.
There are two 4 major factors that will affect these races.
1) Trump — assuming he runs again and continues for the next two years as he has for the last two, then 2020 should go well for team blue in these 7 districts.
2) Turnout — Dems turned out in spades in 2018 and can reasonably be assumed to do so again in 2020.
3) Scandal/retirement — Open races and scandal plagued incumbents make for more competitive races than would otherwise be the case (obviously). See Rohrabacher, Dana; also CA-39. Unless otherwise stated I am assuming that all incumbents will be running in 2020.
4) Open Primary — California has an open primary. All candidates appear on the same primary ballot and the top two vote getters progress to the general election, irrespective of party.
In 2018 two GOP candidates progressed in CA-08 so last November there was no Democrat on the ballot in CA-08.
More to the point, in 2012 two GOP candidates made it through the open primary in CA-31, costing Democrats a very likely win. Team Blue made good here in 2014 BTW.
As you may recall there was a fear in 2018 that Democrats could be shut out in CA-10, CA-45, CA-48 & CA-49. It didn’t happen (just) and the rest is history but this is arguably the most important factor in 2020.
You will note that candidate selection/quality is not listed as a major factor. 2018 showed us that candidate quality is not the be all and end all. For example T J Cox carpetbagged from CA-10 to CA-21 and won nonetheless. I am sure he will make a great congressman but he did switch races just before the open primary.
So onto the individual races...
CA-01
PVI - R+11
2012 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 57.3%, Reed (D) 42.7% - Reed lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2014 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 61.1%, Hall (D) 38.9% - Hall lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2016 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 59.1%, Reed (D) 40.9% - Reed lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2018 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 54.9%, Denney (D) 45.1% - Denney won 2/11 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.73%, D - 30.82%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 42.32%, D - 30.52%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 41.90%, D - 29.41%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 41.43%, D - 30.34%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.50%, D - 30.21%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 40.00 %, D - 29.32%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 53%
2012 Pres - Obama 40.3%, Romney 56.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 36.5%, Trump 56.2%
At first glance this one looks hopelessly red. The voter reg gap hasn’t declined much, low Clinton 2016 vote etc.
However Denney did manage to get 45% of the vote in a race that was not targeted by team blue and in which she raised an okay but not huge amount (about $1 million).
this race is one to keep an eye on especially as LaMalfa has never had a seriously competitive race.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 3rd most likely to flip to blue.
CA-04
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: McClintock (R) 61.1%, Uppal (D) 38.9% - Uppal lost 8/10 Counties in the District.
2014 House Result: McClintock (R) 60.4%, Moore (R) 39.6% - No Democrat filed!
2016 House Result: McClintock (R) 62.7%, Derlet (D) 37.3% - Derlet lost 8/10 Counties in the District.
2018 House Result: McClintock (R) 54.1%, Morse (D) 45.9% — Morse lost 8/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.95%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.48%, D - 29.18%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.41%, D - 28.55%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.76%, D - 29.25%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 43.62%, D - 29.09%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 41.27%, D - 28.53%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 39.5%, Romney 57.9%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.2%, Trump 54.0%
Again, like CA-01, at first glance this looks implacably red. Morse fundraised quite well ($3.8 Million) and still fell well short.
If she runs again in 2020 with presidential turnout levels it is possible to flip but unlikely. Clinton did do comparatively well here in 2016 too by the way.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 5th most likely to flip to blue.
CA-08
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: Cook (R) 57.4%, Imus (R) 42.6% - Democrats lost Open Primary
2014 House Result: Cook (R) 67.7%, Conaway (D) 32.3%
2016 House Result: Cook (R) 62.3%, Ramirez (D) 37.7%
2018 House Result: Cook (R) 60.0%, Donnelly (R) 40.0% - Democrats lost Open Primary
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.15%, D - 32.69%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.28%, D - 32.48%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.44%, D - 32.17%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 38.58%, D - 33.20%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 38.38%, D - 33.12%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 36.22%, D - 31.99%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.7%, Romney 55.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.6%, Trump 54.7%
You will have noted that that I stated earlier that 6 of the 7 non-held districts re the reddest in California. This is the 7th.
CA-08, I believe, is the most likely to flip in 2020. I know that most feel that CA-50 is more likely to flip but scroll down to my comments about that race to see why I have a different view about CA-50.
Of course the fly in the ointment is the open primary. The Californian Democratic party has got to do whatever it can to avoid another shut out here in 2020.
Clinton got just less than 40% of the vote here in 2016 but the most important stat is the voter reg gap. It is currently only 4.23% and has declined by more than half since 2012. Not bad for a non-targeted district. Team Blue won 2 races in 2018 with a larger voter reg gap than this.
This one has the potential to be a real sleeper race in 2020.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 1st most likely to flip to blue.
CA-22
PVI - R+8
2012 House Result: Nunes (R) 62.3%, Lee (D) 37.7%
2014 House Result: Nunes (R) 72.3%, Aguilera-Marrero (D) 27.7%
2016 House Result: Nunes (R) 67.6%, Campos (D) 32.4%
2018 House Result: Nunes (R) 52.7%, Janz (D) 47.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.19%, D - 34.85%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.32%, D - 33.36%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.04%, D - 32.23%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.19%, D - 32.84%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 42.82%, D - 32.82%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 40.21%, D - 31.67%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.6%, Romney 56.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 42.6%, Trump 52.1%
Janz raised and spent no less than $9 million. And still fell about 12,000 votes short. Like CA-04 we saw a well funded candidate fall short, albeit by a smaller margin than in CA-04. Clinton did well with 42.6% and the voter reg gap is slowly declining. In a presidential year if the DCCC and California Dems prioritise this race (a shortage of targets in California make that more likely than in 2018) then it may be a race one to watch
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 4th most likely to flip to blue.
CA-23
PVI - R+14
2012 House Result: McCarthy (R) 73.2%, Phillips (I) 26.8% - No Democrat Filed!
2014 House Result: McCarthy (R) 75.2%, Garcia (D) 24.8%
2016 House Result: McCarthy (R) 69.2%, Reed (D) 32.4%
2018 House Result: McCarthy (R) 63.7%, Matta (D) 36.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.48%, D - 29.84%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.52%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.03%, D - 29.44%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.17%, D - 29.67%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 43.05%, D - 29.50%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 40.59%, D - 28.50%
2008 Pres - Obama 36%, McCain 61%
2012 Pres - Obama 36.13%, Romney 61.51%.
2016 Pres - Clinton 36.1%, Trump 58.1%
The most Republican district in California won’t be flipping anytime soon. 2nd biggest voter reg gap and the lowest Clinton 2016 vote says it all really, At least it is slowly bluing.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 7th most likely to flip to blue.
CA-42
PVI - R+9
2012 House Result: Calvert (R) 60.6%, Williamson (D) 39.4%
2014 House Result: Calvert (R) 65.9%, Sheridan (D) 34.1%
2016 House Result: Calvert (R) 58.8%, Sheridan (D) 41.2%
2018 House Result: Calvert (R) 56.5%, Peacock (D) 43.5%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.42%, D - 30.04%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.44%, D - 29.00%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 42.19%, D - 30.33%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.88%, D - 30.27%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 39.19%, D - 29.81%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.38%, Romney 56.53%
2016 Pres - Clinton 41.4%, Trump 53.4%
Like LaMalfa in CA-01 Calvert has never had a tough race. 2018 was no exception as Peacock raised only 158k for the Primary and the General. Despite that there are some green shoots to be seen. Clinton got more than 40% of the vote and the voter reg gap, whilst almost 10% has declined by 1/3rd since 2012. And Peacock still managed 43% of the vote here too, despite a campaign that was desperately short of cash.
In a Presidential year this could be one to watch.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 2nd most likely to flip to blue.
CA-50
PVI - R+11
2012 House Result: Hunter (R) 67.7%, Secor (D) 32.3%
2014 House Result: Hunter (R) 71.3%, Kimber (D) 28.7%
2016 House Result: Hunter (R) 63.5%, Malloy (D) 36.5%
2018 House Result: Hunter (R) 51.7%, Campa-Najjar (D) 48.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.40%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.25%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.70%, D - 25.64%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.10%, D - 27.31%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 42.89%, D - 27.22%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18:R - 40.05%, D - 26.76%
2008 Pres - Obama 39%, McCain 58%
2012 Pres - Obama 37.56%, Romney 60.41%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.6%, Trump 54.6%
Lots of prognosticators see this as the most likely GOP district in California to flip in 2020. I respectfully disagree. Simply put I can’t see Hunter lasting the full term. Given that he is under criminal indictment and that the allegations seem serious I think a special election is more likely than not. In turn given the underlying red nature of the district — 13 point reg gap and the inevitable turnout drop off that a special election brings a relatively scandal free Republican is likely to win any special election and then cruise through to the 2020 general.
Campa-Najjar did really well here in the face of a disgraceful racist, xenophobic campaign from Hunter. It wasn’t right and it wasn’t fair but it worked.
If Hunter is on the ballot in 2020 or if the district is open it is a different race, particularly given that Clinton got almost 40% here, but assuming some other Republican incumbent is on the ballot then this is a difficult district to flip.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 6th most likely to flip to blue.
So in my opinion these 7 districts rank as follows: 8th, 42nd, 1st, 22nd, 4th, 50th, 23rd.
Thoughts, brickbats etc would be appreciated.