Tea partier Matt Bevin posts a 1-point lead ahead of next week's primary
SurveyUSA takes a look at next Tuesday's increasingly nasty Kentucky GOP gubernatorial primary, and they find a
very close three-way contest. Tea partying businessman Matt Bevin leads Agriculture Commissioner James Comer just 27-26, with wealthy ex-Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner at 25. Former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott continues to be a non-factor with only 8 percent. These results track very closely with a
recent PPP survey and it looks like any of these three men can emerge with the GOP nomination on May 19.
The poll was conducted May 5 to 10, at a time when accusations against Comer were dominating the discussion. Comer's ex-girlfriend Marilyn Thomas has come forward and said that in college, Comer physically and emotionally abused her and took her to get an abortion. Two of Thomas' old roommates confirm that she was in an abusive relationship; Comer has denied everything and his old roommate backs up his story.
Comer claims that Heiner paid Thomas to lie, but he's offered no evidence. However, a blogger who informally coordinated with the Heiner campaign is being investigated for allegedly threatening the children of Comer's running mate. Suffice to say this is an ugly situation but so far it doesn't seem to have sunk either Comer or Heiner.
There's a lot less drama on the Democratic side, where SurveyUSA shows Attorney General Jack Conway easily leading perennial candidate Geoff Young 68-13. But SurveyUSA took a look at each hypothetical general election matchups and gives Conway clear leads:
• 45-39 vs. Comer
• 48-36 vs. Heiner
• 48-37 vs. Bevin
• 48-32 vs. Scott
There is no other recent general election polling, so we don't know how on-target SurveyUSA is. Even if they're dead-on, it's a good bet that things will get closer once this primary is over and the GOP has had time to heal its wounds. It's also possible that some normally GOP voters are backing Conway now as the contenders nuke each other and they'll come back in the fold once things settle down. Still, it's a very good sign for Conway that he's this close to 50 against two of his likely opponents, and that the guy who keeps it closest may be the candidate most likely to self-destruct in the fall.