Iowa Republican Rep. Rod Blum and friend
On Friday, the NRCC added
eight more members to its Patriot program, which designates which incumbents it plans to expend resources to protect. While the
first 12 Patriot members either represented blue seats or had close races in 2014, this new crop is a bit more safe.
But one of the most vulnerable members of the GOP caucus didn't make either list. Freshman Rod Blum sits in an eastern Iowa seat that Obama carried 56-43. While it's tough to see him winning re-election without another red wave, Iowans have proven that they're more than willing to split their tickets. But Blum didn't do much to ingratiate himself with the House leadership when he voted against John Boehner in this year's speakership race. While Republican presidential candidates seeking to win next year's Iowa caucus have showered Blum with attention, it hasn't translated into fundraising. Blum is wealthy enough to self-fund some of his campaign, but he probably can't win without national party support.
So who did make the Patriot list? The names are below, with the Obama-Romney numbers for each district in parentheses, and each member's 2014 performance in brackets:
• Jeff Denham, CA-10 (51-47) [56-44]
• Steve Knight, CA-25 (48-50) [54-46, against another Republican]
• Rodney Davis, IL-13 (49-49) [59-41]
• Dan Benishek, MI-01 (45-54) [52-45]
• Tim Walberg, MI-07 (48-51) [53-41]
• Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (52-46) [55-34]
• Ryan Costello, PA-06 (48-51) [56-44]
• Barbara Comstock, VA-10 (49-50) [56-40]
Only Dan Benishek, who holds Romney's best seat here, beat a Democrat by only a single-digit margin. Most of these districts are swingy or just light red, but these members look like they'd be in good shape absent a Democratic wave. National Democrats have some candidates in mind for
CA-25,
MI-01,
PA-06, and
VA-10, and already have a credible contender in
MI-07. Things have been a lot more quiet in CA-10, IL-13, and NY-21, though we're still early in the cycle.
It is notable that the NRCC added Elise Stefanik, who represents a competitive Upstate New York seat, after the DCCC appeared to ignore her on their initial target list.