Elise Stefanik
On Tuesday, the DCCC launched
a goofy little website targeting vulnerable House GOP freshmen, pairing them with pop songs from ostensible one-hit wonders (these guys are "one-term wonders," you see?). It's the kind of roster we'd just as soon skip over, but for one notable absence. The D-Trip has included every first-term Republican in a blue or swing seat, ranging from Will Hurd in TX-23 (50-48 Romney) to Bob Dold! in IL-10 (58-41 Obama), except for Elise Stefanik in upstate New York's 21st Congressional District.
So what gives? Obama carried this seat by a 52-46 margin, and Democrats held it (admittedly thanks to a fair bit of luck) until 2014, ever since picking it up in a 2009 special election. Yes, Stefanik won by a fat 21-point margin, but she only took 55 percent: A Green Party candidate peeled away 11 points from the hapless Democrat. What's more, with Hillary Clinton extremely likely to be the party's presidential nominee, you have a very popular former senator from New York heading the top of the ticket—a perfect recipe for knocking off Stefanik.
It therefore makes no sense to be leaving her off preliminary target lists. Even if you think somehow that Stefanik is unbeatable, party committees are always engaged in boosterism, as well they should be. And in any event, Stefanik is not unbeatable. With Democrats in a 30-seat hole, NY-21 is on any reasonable path back to the majority. Here's hoping this was just an oversight.