Indicted ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert
Leading Off:
• WATN: Late Thursday evening, BuzzFeed broke the shocking news that federal prosecutors had indicted former Republican Speaker of the House Denny Hastert on charges that he had attempted to conceal almost $1 million in cash withdrawals from the IRS, then lied about it to the FBI. Here's what we know and don't know about the case so far:
What exactly is Hastert accused of?
According to the indictment, back in 2010, Hastert had agreed to pay $3.5 million to an unnamed "Individual A," in order to "compensate for and conceal" Hastert's unspecified "prior misconduct" against Individual A. In total, Hastert wound up giving $1.7 million to Individual A before the feds nabbed him.
The indictment itself doesn't offer any details about what that "prior misconduct" might have consisted of, but a report in the Los Angeles Times, citing nameless federal law enforcement officials, said Hastert had paid out this money to cover up "sexual abuse against a former male student he knew during his days as a teacher." (The New York Times and CNN, among other outlets, confirmed this version of events but may have relied on the same sources.)
Hastert had been both a high school teacher and a wrestling coach in Yorkville, Illinois from 1965 to 1981—a detail mentioned in the first paragraph of the indictment—and he led his team to a state championship in 1976, earning much acclaim. The indictment also specified that Individual A was a resident of Yorkville and had known Hastert "most of Individual A's life." As one former federal prosecutor, Jeff Cramer, observed to the AP, "Feds don't put in language like that unless it's relevant."
How was Hastert caught?:
Beginning in 2010, Hastert started withdrawing $50,000 in cash at a time from his various bank accounts in order to pay Individual A. Remarkably, despite having held one of the highest political offices in the land, Hastert seemed unaware that banks are obligated to file reports for any cash transactions over $10,000 with a Treasury Department agency called the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. (The law is designed to thwart criminals and tax cheats.) Hastert's banks did so, and they also questioned him about his withdrawals, which seems to have tipped him off to the reporting requirement.
Hastert then tried One Weird Trick that has tripped up countless clueless drug dealers and money launderers before him: He started taking out cash in increments under $10,000. While it may be hard for a conservative like Hastert to believe, government investigators are actually a little bit more clever than this, and they're quite capable of detecting a pattern of withdrawals that appear designed to evade reporting laws. They even have a term for it: structuring. Per the indictment, Hastert withdrew $952,000 in at least 106 separate transactions of under $10,000 each. That's structuring all right, and it's illegal.
When the FBI came to talk to Hastert, Hastert apparently claimed (in the words of the indictment) that he'd taken out all that money "to store cash because he did not feel safe with the banking system." It's not clear whether federal agents then asked to look under Hastert's mattress at this point, but they wouldn't have found more than a dust ruffle since, per the indictment, he'd given all that money to Individual A. So this is where the "lying to federal investigators" charge comes in.
Why was Hastert charged rather than Individual A?
For one thing, Hastert lied to investigators—he could have simply fessed up and admitted he was being blackmailed. But there are other considerations here, too. As former federal prosecutor Phil Turner explained, in most extortion cases, prosecutors would typically view the target of the blackmail as the victim. However, he noted, "prosecutors have enormous discretion and, in some instance, may see the person doing the extortion as a greater victim."
Given the reports of sexual abuse, it's easy to understand how law enforcement officials might view Individual A as the greater victim rather than Hastert. Indeed, the L.A. Times reported that investigators talked to a second man who "raised similar allegations that corroborated" what Individual A told them.
What else do we know?
According to unnamed sources cited by BuzzFeed, U.S. Attorney Zachary Fardon had been planning to file a "a much more explicit" charging document, but he withheld further details from the indictment, partly at the request of Hastert's attorneys. It is probably safe to say that most defendants are not accorded such treatment.
There's also the matter of a very bizarre call made to a C-SPAN show last November, when Hastert appeared to discuss the 2014 midterm elections. A caller identifying himself only as Bruce asked, "Remember me from Yorkville?" to which Hastert responded, "Yeah, go ahead." Bruce then laughed and hung up the phone.
What happens next?
A federal judge has preliminarily set Hastert's bail at $4,500 and released him on his own recognizance. (Presumably he's not regarded as a flight risk.) Unnamed Justice Department officials tell Politico that Hastert, who has remained out of sight, will appear in court next week for his formal arraignment.
Each of the two counts Hastert faces—structuring and lying to the FBI—carries a maximum five-year sentence. If he were convicted and sentenced to a full 10 years, that could very well mean that Hastert, 73, might spend his last years in prison. If he were to accept a plea deal, which is almost certainly his best option at this point, Hastert could receive a reduced sentence.
Finally, and unsurprisingly, Hastert has resigned from the lobbying firm of Dickstein Shapiro, where he'd been taking on new clients as recently as last month. He also quit the board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. And Wheaton College, a small Christian school in suburban Chicago that Hastert graduated from in 1964, removed his name from the J. Dennis Hastert Center for Economics, Government and Public Policy.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: On Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced that she would challenge Republican Sen. John McCain, but the senator may have more immediate problems. Republican Rep. Matt Salmon initially showed little interest in opposing McCain in the primary, but he began to change his tune in April. Conservative groups like the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks have been working hard to recruit Salmon, and the congressman's camp is letting them know that their efforts are bearing fruit. An unnamed source close to Salmon tells The National Journal that Salmon is "taking a serious look," at running, and will likely decide by early August.
If Salmon gets in, McCain is not going to have an easy time beating him back. A May PPP survey gave McCain a wretched 41-50 approval rating with primary voters, and found McCain leading Salmon only 42-40. There haven't been any other public primary polls but according to Salmon's allies, they've privately seen similar numbers. McCain is no pushover, and he proved in 2010 that he's willing to exploit his opponent's weakness. It's also far from clear if state Sen. Kelli Ward will get out of Salmon's way if he jumps in, or if she'll take away some anti-McCain votes that he could badly use. Still, there's little doubt that the GOP base is tired of McCain and that they'll take a serious look at an alternative.
Team Blue will be rooting for a bloody McCain-Salmon primary, but it's anyone's guess who would be an easier general election opponent. PPP found McCain very unpopular statewide with a 36-51 approval rating, while Salmon is more of a blank slate with a 22-25 favorable score. (Salmon lost the 2002 gubernatorial contest by just 1 percent, but it's not shocking that many voters have forgotten about him since then.) However, Salmon's tea party stances could cost him some support even in this conservative state, and his poor relationship with GOP leaders could hamper him in a general election. No matter what, both parties will be watching Salmon's moves closely.
Gubernatorial:
• DE-Gov: On Saturday, former state Attorney General Beau Biden died of brain cancer at the age of 46. Biden, the son of Vice President Joe Biden, first won his post in 2006, and he was heavily recruited to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010. However, Biden chose to seek a second term as attorney general instead, and the seat was eventually won by fellow Democrat Chris Coons. In 2014, Biden announced his intention to run for governor in next year's election, and he was very unlikely to face any real opposition in the Democratic primary had he run, but he never confirmed his plans.
• KY-Gov: The nasty and excruciatingly tight GOP primary is finally over. On Friday, state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer conceded to businessman Matt Bevin and endorsed him. Comer's move comes one day after a recanvass left Bevin's 83-vote lead intact. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who Bevin tried to unseat only one year ago, also endorsed his old rival, though his one-line statement wasn't exactly enthusiastic. Bevin will face Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway in November in a race that both parties will be working hard to win.
• VT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin barely held back the little-known Scott Milne last year, and the state GOP is smelling blood. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott recently told WCAX that he's considering a bid, and that it won't make a difference if Shumlin runs again or not. Scott has decisively won the lieutenant governorship three times, and he'd almost certainly be the best candidate the GOP can land. While Vermont is one of the bluest states out there, it hasn't been afraid to elect Republican governors. Milne has also expressed interest in running, though he's likely to get pushed aside if Scott gets in. For his part, Shumlin hasn't announced if he'll seek a fourth-two year term yet.
House:
• CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera doesn't have a Republican opponent yet, but he sits in a swingy Sacramento-area district and both of his first two elections were decided by very narrow margins, so you can bet he'll receive a stiff challenge from the GOP again. But he probably wasn't expecting to take some incoming fire from a constituency that usually supports Democrats: organized labor. The AFL-CIO is extremely unhappy that many congressional Democrats, including Bera, are supporting so-called "fast-track" negotiation authority that would allow President Obama to push through a trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (Here's a good explainer.)
Lots of liberals are opposed to the agreement, for a variety of reasons. The AFL-CIO focuses on jobs, with a very hostile narrator declaring: "Ami Bera will do anything to keep his job—including shipping your job overseas." The spot goes on to say that fast-track (or really TPP) is "the same kind of trade deal that's already meant millions of lost jobs." A House vote is expected on fast-track this coming week, and the ad is obviously designed to send a message to Bera.
The size of the buy is reportedly "six figures," which almost always means something in the $100,000 range, so it's not huge, nor will many folks remember it a year from now. But if Bera votes in favor of the bill (as he's indicated), the question is whether unions will remember that come next November and be reluctant to come to his aid.
Other Races:
• Phoenix Mayor: A few months ago, it looked like Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton could face real opposition from both the right and the left. However, the filing deadline passed on Wednesday, and mayor's detractors just couldn't find anyone credible willing to face him. Two conservative city councilors attempted to recruit 2014 GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones in February, but she never showed much interest. On the other side of the aisle, AFSCME tried to enlist former Mayor Phil Gordon to take on Stanton, but Gordon endorsed his successor instead. Ultimately, Stanton will face only perennial candidate Matt Jette and Anna Maria Brennan, who took just 5 percent in the 2011 non-partisan primary.
• San Antonio Mayor: The June 13 runoff between interim Mayor Ivy Taylor and ex-state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte is right around the corner and if the primary results are any indication, things could be tight. However, former state Rep. Mike Villarreal, who took a close third, has decided not to endorse either of the remaining contenders. Most of Villarreal's old constituents live in Van De Putte's former legislative district so his supporters may be more inclined to back her than Taylor, but without any public polling it's hard to draw any conclusions.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.