Democratic Senate candidate Joe Sestak with supporters
Leading Off:
• PA-Sen: Whatever your opinion of him, ex-Rep. Joe Sestak has always been a strong fundraiser, which makes his weak first-quarter haul quite surprising. Sestak pulled in just $312,000, a small sum for a big state like Pennsylvania—especially when many local (and even some national) Democrats have been thirsting to see an alternative challenge him in the primary. (By comparison, in his very first fundraising report during his first run for the House in 2006, Sestak pulled in $427,000.)
So what's going on here? There are a few possible alternatives: 1) The DSCC and Pennsylvania Democrats are trying to dry up his fundraising and succeeding; 2) Sestak, the Honey Badger of Pennsylvania politics, is just campaigning his own way, doesn't give a damn if people are gunning for him, and will raise money when he feels like it; or 3) Sestak is yesterday's news and simply lacks the fundraising firepower he used to have.
The first and last options would spell real trouble for Sestak, but if we're behind door number two, he may yet be able to pour it on. However, the sharks are swarming, and Sestak already has a rival for the nomination, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. Pawlowski's no one's idea of an instant threat, but Sestak just flashed a sign of real weakness, whether he intended to or not.
He does still have $1.7 million banked, but that doesn't look impressive compared to GOP Sen. Pat Toomey's $7.2 million war chest. That gap might be enough of an inducement for a stronger candidate, like Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, to enter the race after all. Sestak's going to have to turn things around if he doesn't want to see that happen.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: State Sen. Kelli Ward has been moving toward jumping into the GOP primary against John McCain, but well-funded groups like FreedomWorks has been very reluctant to support her, and the organization's leader hasn't been subtle about why. Last year, Ward held a hearing about whether chemtrails are poisoning the air, an idea that's popular among conspiracy theorists and not many other people.
Ward knows she can't expect significant outside help if her would-be allies think she's a kook, and she's slowly distancing herself from the chemtrails crowd. Last month, Ward said she had no opinion about the effects of chemtrails, and now she's adamantly claiming that she "never believed it," and only held the hearing to address her community's concerns. Ward also recently said that the hearing wasn't about chemtrails, it was just an issue that came up, though she specifically promised to address them in an invite to the event. Needless to say, this whole episode isn't going to convince Ward skeptics that she's ready for a grueling campaign against McCain.
• FL-Sen: Even before Marco Rubio decided to run for the White House, it looked like Florida Republicans had more or less settled on a front-runner to succeed him in the Senate, state CFO Jeff Atwater. But Atwater's decision to bail on the race—as surprising as Rubio's move was unsurprising—has left the GOP field wide, wide open. To help you keep the picture in focus, Jeff Singer has run down the most likely candidates, along with their strengths and weaknesses, while Daniel Donner (the artist formerly known as dreaminonempty) has assembled this scorecard:
We also have
some new polling data, courtesy Mason-Dixon, that confirms how fluid the fight for the Republican nomination is. Here's where things stand in a hypothetical kitchen-sink scenario:
Bill McCollum: 20
David Jolly: 8
Vern Buchanan: 7
Tom Rooney: 5
Ron DeSantis: 4
Carlos Lopez-Cantera: 4
George Lemieux: 3
Don Gaetz: 1
Undecided: 48
McCollum's perch at the top is entirely a function of his name recognition: Thanks to his service as attorney general and his multiple statewide runs (most recently for governor in 2010), only a quarter of the state is unfamiliar with him. Everyone else, on the other hand, is almost entirely unknown, and McCollum, who is 70, doesn't even seem particularly likely to run. There are also three potential names Mason-Dixon didn't include (Reps. Curt Clawson, Jeff Miller, and Dennis Ross), and Rooney's already said no, so it'll be a while yet before we can get an accurate read on this primary—though it's a safe bet that the final roster won't be quite so large.
Meanwhile, it turns out that Lopez-Cantera won't be able to count on support from his current boss, something that had at one point seemed likely. Gov. Rick Scott just announced that he won't take sides in the primary, though he did offer some praise for his number two. Lopez-Cantera will be irrevocably associated with Scott whether he wants to be or not, so it's not like seeking help from the governor would realistically affect Lopez-Cantera's image. Now, it seems, he'll have to deal with the worst of both worlds: No overt backing from the wealthy Scott, but blame for every unpopular decision he makes.
On the Democratic side, we still don't know whether we'll have a contested nomination battle, though Alan Grayson has said he thinks he'll "probably" run against fellow Rep. Patrick Murphy, the only candidate in the race so far. Interestingly, Grayson would start off behind Murphy, 23-14, even though he's better-known. However, Murphy has a near-spotless 18-2 favorability rating while Grayson sits at 13-14, suggesting that the old adage about how there's no such thing as bad publicity may not be true. (However, an earlier PPP poll had Grayson ahead 22-21.)
Mason-Dixon hasn't released general election numbers, but previous surveys from both PPP and Quinnipiac show that the general is just as uncertain as both primaries. No matter what, though, Florida, as it so often does, will prove a crucial battleground—in this case, for control of the Senate—and as always, we'll be keeping close tabs on all developments at Daily Kos Elections.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Outgoing Angie's List CEO Bill Oesterle, a Republican who has been one of GOP Gov. Mike Pence's most voluble critics regarding passage of the state's notorious Religious Freedom Restoration Act, is speaking out in a little more detail about his political aims. Previously, Oesterle hadn't ruled out a primary challenge of his own; now, he's touting former Gov. Mitch Daniels, though he knows there's almost no way that will happen. But Oesterle also seems to think there's a non-zero chance Pence not seek re-election, which could open the door to a Daniels return. All of these seem like longshot scenarios, with an Oesterle bid still the most likely.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Joe Donnelly shot down a rumor that he might try to swap posts next year, with a spokesperson saying that Donnelly "is not considering the 2016 governor's race." He wouldn't have been the first red-state Democratic senator to contemplate a move to the governor's mansion (West Virginia's Joe Manchin just nixed the idea, while North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp is apparently still considering it), but even though Pence is wounded, he'd still be a tough opponent.
• KY-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, who famously claimed that "[m]oney and TV ads don't win elections," is spending some money on an ad for an election. The spot features Comer talking about his conservative rural Kentucky values, a subtle reminder that his GOP primary rivals Hal Heiner and Matt Bevin (as well as presumptive Democratic nominee Jack Conway) live in Louisville. The commercial is airing in the Bowling Green, Lexington, and Paducah markets, notably avoiding the more expensive and urban Louisville area.
• MO-Gov: Retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens is still only officially exploring a bid for the GOP nomination, though he's raising serious money and looks all-but-certain to run. But it wasn't that long ago that Greitens was looking at a House campaign... as a Democrat. Eli Yokley of PoliticMo reports that Greitens met with the DCCC in 2010, though he ultimately didn't run for anything under either party's banner. It's unclear when or why Greitens switched parties, but it's a good bet that his primary opponents are going to be asking.
And Greitens has opponents aplenty. In a new Daily Kos Great Mentioner post, we look at the emerging GOP field for this open seat. The winner is expected to face Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster, who had his own (public) party switch in 2007.
• UT-Gov: With former Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson taking a new job as a lobbyist and joining the board of a controversial student loan company, it seems very unlikely that he'll be seeking elected office again anytime soon. Still, Dan Jones and Associates, on behalf of Utahpolicy.com, tested a hypothetical matchup between Matheson and Republican Gov. Gary Herbert. They found Herbert winning by an easy 57-33 margin, and it's very unlikely any Democrat would do better than the battle-hardened Matheson.
Still, Herbert may have a competitive primary if wealthy businessman Jonathan Johnson challenges him. While Dan Jones doesn't appear to have tested as hypothetical matchup, they asked voters whom they'd prefer in a jungle primary (which Utah does not have) between Herbert, Johnson, Matheson, and Democratic Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams. They found Hebert leading the field with 48 percent, with Johnson languishing in last place at 4. (Matheson leads McAdams 23-10 for what that's worth).
A few months ago, Johnson said that he had "every intention of running," and his consultant blames the poor result on Johnson's lack of name recognition. Still, while a direct head-to-head primary poll would be better, there just doesn't seem to be much of an appetite to oust Hebert.
House:
• CA-24: Well, that's one way to announce you're not running. There was speculation that 2014 GOP nominee Chris Mitchum and Santa Barbara Councilor Dale Francisco would jump into this race now that Democratic incumbent Lois Capps is retiring. However, both Republicans stood behind Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian during his campaign kickoff, so we can take their names out of contention.
Businessman Justin Fareed, who also sought this seat in 2014, is competing here again. While Democrats would love it if Fareed somehow edged Achadjian out of the general election, there is the possibility that the two Republicans could snag both top-two spots and lock Team Blue out of this seat. Right now Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider, and Some Dude Bill Ostrander are all running as Democrats, and Capps' daughter political operative Laura Capps looks likely to join them. It's far from impossible to imagine four Democrats splitting the vote enough to give the GOP an automatic pickup in this Obama 54-43 seat.
• CA-29: The district director for Democratic Rep. Tony Cardenas reported to the House last week that she had received a federal grand jury subpoena, and according to Roll Call, the investigation involves questions as to whether Cardenas' congressional staffers engaged in campaign activities while on government time. Cardenas, who is in his second term representing a safely Democratic seat, is refusing to address the matter publicly, and so far, we have little to go on, but similar charges helped bring about the demise of the political career of ex-Rep. Laura Richardson, another California Democrat.
• IL-18: Filing closed Monday for the special election to succeed Aaron Schock. State Sen. Darin LaHood, the son of former Rep. Ray LaHood, scared off most of his potential foes, and he will only face political consultant Mike Flynn and Some Dude Donald Rients in the July 7 GOP primary.
Flynn plans to run against LaHood from the right and make his establishment support an issue, and he also sounds ready to argue that the younger LaHood is benefiting from nepotism. But Flynn hasn't lived in this Downstate Illinois seat in 20 years, and a lot is going to need to go right for him if he's going to pull off an upset. Romney won this district 61-37, and the GOP should have little trouble keeping it in the Sept. 10 general election against Springfield School Board Member Adam Lopez or Some Dude Rob Mellon.
• MI-10: On Tuesday, ex-state Sen. Alan Sanborn entered the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Candice Miller. Sanborn joins state Sen. Phil Pavlov, though they're both likely to have plenty of company before too long.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson has never explicitly said he's running again, giving Roll Call a vague "[e]veryone's happy." But Democrats are absolutely convinced that Peterson is going to seek another term in his conservative rural seat, and even Republicans acknowledge that their attempt to unseat him last year may have only strengthened his resolve to stay.
Still, while the GOP isn't optimistic that they can beat Peterson this cycle after his 54-46 victory over state Sen. Torrey Westrom during the 2014 Republican wave, they're still looking at trying. Westrom told Roll Call that "[i]t's too early to tell" if he'll challenge Peterson again. Westrom is up for re-election in 2016, so he'd need to sacrifice his spot in the legislature for another tough race. Businessman Scott Van Binsbergen, who worked as a staffer to former Rep. Vin Weber, is more interested, confirming that he's considering a bid. And if Peterson surprises us and retires, expect a lot more Republicans to jump in.
Other Races:
• Jacksonville Mayor: Huh. An unknown pollster for an unnamed business group shows Democratic Mayor Alvin Brown leading Republican challenger Lenny Curry 44-41 ahead of the May 19 runoff. Politico's Marc Caputo says he's worked with this pollster in the past, and these numbers mirror both party's numbers. Brown posts a strong 61-33 favorable rating, but it's not easy winning in a conservative city in an off-year. The only previously released poll we've seen since the March primary gave Brown a 49-46 edge. (Hat-tip Tyler Yeargain)
Grab Bag:
• WATN?: Former Pennsylvania Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary for governor last year, is taking a job as CEO of a new lobbying group designed to support Medicare Advantage. That program was created as part of George W. Bush's 2003 Medicare expansion (best known for including a prescription drug benefit) and allows beneficiaries to receive their Medicare benefits via private insurers. It's been an extremely expensive endeavor, and a major cost-saving feature of the Affordable Care Act—which Schwartz supported—involved clamping down on Medicare Advantage payments.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.