On September 9th voters will go to the polls in New Hampshire to choose, amongst other things, their nominee for the US House. As all congresswoman are Democratic incumbents, along with Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the action, such as it is, lies on the Republican side. In the first district of New Hampshire there are currently four Republicans running for the nomination. Frank Guinta, the district’s previous US House Representative from 2011-2013 and Manchester’s mayor from 2006-2010, Dan Innis, a first time candidate and Dean of the University of New Hampshire Business School until he resigned to run for congress, Brendan Kelly, a Seabrook Councilman and the 2012 Libertarian nominee and Everett Jabour, some dude.
In the money race, it’s somewhat close, if outside money is included. According to Opensecrets.org Guinta has raised $457,996, Spent: $215,317 and has $252,124 Cash on Hand.
Innis meanwhile raised:$305,493, spent: $186,561 and has Cash on Hand: $118,932. Neither Kelly nor Jabour raised enough to report. These numbers are all as of 6/30/14.
Guinta has a significant edge on Innis, until outside spending is considered.
A Superpac, New Hampshire Priorities, has spent $226,475 on his behalf. With this infusion from Priorities, which has been used for one web ad and leaflets (and possibly more), the money race is much closer, with Innis having raised $531,968 to Guinta’s $457,996. As these are the only two candidates raising any money or having any spent on their behalf, the race will likely come between the two of them, the question is how will each do?
To start, consider Guinta’s first primary back in 2010 when he won the nomination with 32% of the vote against two other candidates who each received 28% (the remainder went to some dudes).
Guinta: 32%
Mahoney:28%
Ashooh:28%
His opponents, Sean Mahoney of Portsmouth and Richard Ashooh of Bedford were both candidates without bases of support as they’d never been elected to office, yet both came close to defeating the former mayor of the district’s largest city.
Regional preference was part of Guinta’s weakness, as his best counties were away from the seacoast, winning Belknap 32% to Mahoney’s 30% and Ashooh’s 23% (henceforth this is the order candidates will be listed in when discussing numbers about county percentages). Further Guinta barely lost Carrol 31%,32%,24%, dominated Hillsborough 40% 18% 35% had issues, but held his own in Rockingham 27%31% 26% and Mahoney dominated Strafford 29% 34% 24%.
These numbers show that Guinta did well in the east and okay in the seacoast, while Mahoney’s best counties were in the seacoast region, primarily Rockingham and Strafford, although he did okay in the western parts of the state as well. Finally, Ashooh had more of a mixed back, doing neither well, nor poorly in any region. The deciding factor, both in terms of population and vote percentages was Hillsborough County.
Of the district’s six counties, 50% of the vote was in Rockingham and Strafford (38% and 12% respectively) 28% was in Hillsborough, Carrol and Belknap each comprised 10% and Grafton is a paltry 1%, so small it wasn’t mentioned in the previous analysis of county totals (the county was one town where Guinta lost 25%-33%-27%). So if the district is separated into East (Strafford, Carroll and Rockingham) and West (Grafton, Hillsborough and Belknap) East district has the edge population wise 60%-40%.
In order for a Western candidate to win, they either have to do respectively in the East, or dominate the West. Guinta took the former route, but could have gone the latter, had it not been for Ashooh. While Guinta lost in the East, he stayed within 5% of Mahoney in each county; in fact of the seacoast counties (Rockingham and Strafford) with 35511 total votes cast, Mahoney only netted 1606 votes over Guinta.
In Hillsborough however, Mahoney was shut out losing it 18% to Guinta's 40%, allowing Guinta to net 4414 votes over Mahoney, despite the county only casting 19563 votes. To emphasize that, despite Hillsborough only having 55% as many voters as the seacoast’s, Guinta netted 275% more votes there than Mahoney did in the seacoast.
One final factor in that primary was Ashooh. As previously mentioned, his standing was stable throughout the district, never ebbing or flowing as the others had, with one exception. While he didn’t win in Hillsborough, he came close. His second place finish allowed him to net 3273 votes on Mahoney, keeping him contention even as he racked up bronze medals throughout most of the rest of the state. Had Ashooh not run, his Hillsborough votes would have likely gone to Guinta and unless his voters in the rest of the state skewed heavily for Mahoney, Guinta would have won in a landslide.
Given all of this, is Guinta in danger of losing the primary next month? Guinta is likely safe, given that he holds a number of advantages he never had in 2010, while Innis is not as good a fit for the Republican electorate as Mahoney and Ashooh were.
Guinta’s biggest advantage is that he doesn’t have anyone splitting the Hillsborough vote with him this time. Innis as a Dean living in Portsmouth, who never served in political office before, lacks connections to Hillsborough. Further, since Guinta held his own in the seacoast during the 2010 primary without ever representing the region, he’ll likely do better or comparable this time around since he was their representative.
To test this I looked at the towns that voted in the contested 2012 primary and how they compared to 2010. In 2010, the further east a a town was, the worse Guinta did, in comparison to his statewide total (with a few exceptions). His best towns were in Hillsborough and worst in Strafford or Rockingham. In 2012, there was no clear line, with him doing better in some seacoast towns than in some Manchester wards. Guinta may still have some seacoast weakness, but it’s not apparent at the moment.
It’s worth noting that since Innis is from Portsmouth he may be able to capitalize on the regional support the way that Mahoney did, but as demonstrated earlier, he’ll either have to do better than Mahoney, or perform better in Hillsborough. Were Kelly to find support in the seacoast region where he’s a councilman, Innis’s path would get all the harder.
Not that Innis’ path isn’t hard enough already, considering that he’s not the optimum challenger. Consider the following quote from his website:
“Finally, we must invest in the future of our America. Smart infrastructure and education investments are critical. Without a solid transportation and communication backbone, we lose our competitive edge. In addition, our community colleges, universities, and vocational schools all play a key role in our future competitiveness and they must be made more affordable to all.”
Investment, infrastructure, payment for education, community colleges, these are all issues that are considered either government spending, or waste amongst many Republican primary voters. As Senator John Thune (R-SD) once said “anytime you talk about 'investment' it means new spending.” As for education investment, this seems unlikely to resonate with primary voters considering that the Republican controlled New Hampshire Legislature cut $100 million from higher education in 2011. That vote required 2/3’s of the legislature which was the entire Republican Caucus, to override Governor John Lynch’s veto. This suggests that cutting education was the opath GOP primary voters wanted and still want to take.
Granted, Innis does have many of the hallmarks of a conservative candidate. He’s called for balancing the budget while demanding the restoration of $716 billion Medicare cuts, a flat tax, ending subsidies and strengthening welfare to work. Yet at the same time, he doesn’t call to repeal Obamacare, just “fix the mess.” That, coupled with the detailed, arguably complex positions he posts on his page and his support of infrastructure and education may make him too "liberal" for the primary. Many of his issues would probably work in a general election, but not a GOP primary.
Guinta's page is a contast to Innis'. Under education he never mentions increasing or even decreasing spending, only that education is too expensive and it is Washington’s fault. For government spending, Guinta explains how spending and debt causes every problem and how he introduced bills to cap spending. His stance on jobs is to cut red tape and spending. For taxes he does discuss ending special interest tax cuts, but the tone “Americans annually spend more than six billion hours and over $168 billion trying to comply with our burdensome and complex tax code” screams flat tax. These issues coupled with Guinta’s reputation as the thirty-first most conservative congressman makes his campaign more amenable to primary voters than Innis’.
Finally, it must be noted that Innis, as a gay man, might not have much support in a GOP primary. This is speculation, as some gay republicans have been nominated for congress, such as Richard Tisei, but that’s in a solidly blue district, not one that’s one of the most divided in the nation. An indication that Innis views his orientation as a liability in the primary is that throughout his campaign website he doesn’t mention values or his family (he has three kids from a previous marriage and a husband). Guinta meanwhile has a short section devoted to values and has a picture of his family on the website. Ultimately, this may be a factor or not, but considering all the other problems Innis has, it’s unlikely to be the cause of his defeat.
Going into September 9th’s primary Guinta is likely to be feeling good, since by every indication he will win the nomination. He has a strong base in Hillsborough and can hold his own in the seacoast, has raised more money than Innis, not counting a Superpac donation and his views are more in tune to the Republican electorate. Innis is certainly a good candidate and has a chance, but given how he hasn’t been appealing to the electorate well, he seems like Jon Huntsman, a candidacy more for the general election than the primary.
http://www.seacoastonline.com/...
Facebook post by Carol Shea Porter
"Carol Shea-Porter
March 25, 2012 •
Congressman Frank Guinta has been listed as the 31st most conservative member of the 435 member US House of Representatives. He is just too extreme for NH. How extreme is he?
"...Guinta is more conservative than Tea Party favorites Joe Walsh (#162) and Allen West (#174). He’s more extreme than conservative GOP leaders Eric Cantor (#73) and Paul Ryan (#150). He’s even more conservative than Michele Bachmann.(#101)."
http://www.miscellanyblue.com/
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/...
https://www.innisforcongress.com/...
http://ballotpedia.org/...
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
All numbers discussed are from the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s election division page.
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