Three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu is up for reelection today in one of the most competitive races in the country. Sen. Landrieu, or Mary as she’s known locally, is the last Democrat among the state’s statewide elected officials. National pundits tilt the race towards her challenger, three-term U.S. Congressman Bill Cassidy, in the likely event of a runoff, but in this diary we’ll detail why you shouldn't write Mary off just yet.
Sen. Landrieu’s political career is rife with close elections, all but one of which she has won. She was elected at age 23 to the Louisiana House of Representatives from a New Orleans based district largely on the familiarity of her last name to the district’s voters. Her father, Moon Landrieu, had previously been a popular mayor of New Orleans and had been appointed Secretary of Housing and Urban Development two months prior by President Jimmy Carter.
Mary would go on to serve in the state house for two terms. In 1987, the State Treasurer retired, and an open seat race ensued between Kevin Reilly, a successful advertising executive and Baton Rouge state representative; Buddy Leach, a former congressman and then state representative; and Landrieu, all Democrats. Mary would place first in the jungle primary, and the second place finisher, Kevin Reilly, conceded to her despite the pending runoff.
After two terms as State Treasurer, Mary ran for the open governorship in 1995 in what was an incredibly crowded and highly competitive race. Republican State Senator Mike Foster placed first in the jungle primary, followed by Democratic U.S. Congressman Cleo Fields, Mary Landrieu, former Democrat-turned-Republican Governor Buddy Roemer, Democratic attorney Phil Preis and Democratic Lieutenant Governor Melinda Schwegmann, among others. This would mark the first and, so far, only election Mary Landrieu has lost in her political career, as she failed to make the runoff by about half a percentage point behind Rep. Fields, who wasn't a viable candidate in a statewide race.
Fortune would smile on Mary, as but one year later the state would see an open U.S. Senate election with the retirement of longtime Senator J. Bennett Johnston. Another hotly contested jungle primary ensued; however, this time Mary Landrieu was able to sneak into the runoff slightly ahead of her closest competitor, Democratic Attorney General Richard Ieyoub. In the November runoff (back then, the jungle primary was held in September), Mary Landrieu’s incredible performance in Orleans Parish (New Orleans) allowed her to beat U.S Congressman Woody Jenkins by 6,000 votes.
Close elections would continue thereafter. In 2002, Mary would win reelection by about three points after being forced into a runoff against Suzie Haik Terrell. Another reelection win would come in 2008, this time sans runoff, against Democrat-turned-Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy.
So there’s a history of Mary Landrieu’s many political campaigns in the state. She’s been around far longer than any current major elected official, and no one knows Louisiana better. But can she win in 2014 after six years of an Obama presidency, after the President lost the state twice by roughly 20 points, and after polls show her support faltering? The answer is yes.
Let’s start with the early vote, which looks almost uniformly good for our senior Senator. Over 245,000 voters came out during the week of early voting in October, almost double the early vote from 2010 and only 50,000 votes behind the 2012 early vote. Breaking down the early vote, 53% are registered Democrats (compared to 46% of registered voters); 33% are African American (compared to 31% of registered voters); and 9.3% of the vote was cast in Orleans Parish (up from 7.7% in 2008).
There’s a lot to like there. The few negatives for Mary here: Republicans also turned out at a higher rate, comprising 34% of early voters (compared to 27% of registered voters); the GOP stronghold of St. Tammany Parish (the North Shore suburbs of New Orleans) saw incredibly high turnout, comprising 6.6% of the vote, although expect Col. Maness, the Tea Party candidate in the race, to do very well here; Jefferson Parish (South Shore suburbs of New Orleans) comprised only 6% of the early vote after making up 9.4% of the vote in 2008.
That said, if those patterns persist through Election Day, Mary would stand a decent shot at winning outright, rather than being forced into a December runoff if she is unable to break 50% (neither of the Republicans will break 50% today).
Speaking of 50%, let’s talk about how Sen. Landrieu hits that number. Her strategy is 30/30. What’s that you ask? It’s making sure the percentage of the African American vote (which she will win between 92-95% of) is greater than 30% of the total electorate AND making sure she receives 30% of the white vote. If African American turnout is higher, then she might not need 30% of the white vote; the inverse is true if she’s hitting or surpassing 30% of white support.
Let’s apply this rule to the early vote: 33% were African American, 65% were white and 2% other. For convenience sake, let’s add the other into the AA vote but lower her total percentage. If she hits 90% of the combined non-white vote and early vote patterns persist, that gives her 31.5%. From there, she’d need 28.5% of the white vote to surpass 50%.
Now let’s look at results from her two most recent races. Please note, the 2002 numbers are from the runoff that year, and 2008 numbers are derived only from votes for the two major party candidates.
Matching overall political trends in the state, Mary Landrieu’s support over the years has slowly receded in the state’s rural areas, especially up North and in parts of Cajun Country, only to be replaced by swelling support in Southeast Louisiana. Between 2002 and 2008, the place she improved most was St. Bernard Parish, a once conservative, lily-white suburban parish just east of New Orleans, where she went from 47% of the vote in 2002 to almost 60% in 2008. Over that same period, her worst performance was in LaSalle Parish, a small conservative parish in rural North Louisiana home to the town of Jena, where her support dropped from 33% to 26%.
This trend will likely continue in 2014. To win, Mary needs to hit 50% in every parish along the Mississippi River save Ascension. This is doable, she won all but two in 2008 (St. Charles Parish, about 30 minutes east of New Orleans, is winnable and likely necessary for her coalition).
In addition to essentially sweeping the Mississippi, she needs to hit or come close to 90% in Orleans Parish (New Orleans), 60% in East Baton Rouge Parish (Baton Rouge), 56% in Jefferson Parish (South Shore New Orleans suburbs), 63% in Caddo Parish (Shreveport), 36% in St. Tammany Parish (North Shore New Orleans suburbs), 46% in Lafayette Parish (Lafayette), 52% in Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles), 45% in Ouachita Parish (Monroe) and 46% in Rapides Parish (Alexandria).
The 9 parishes above combined for 54.5% of the total vote in 2008, although potentially worrisome for Mary is that they combined for only 47.4% of the 2014 early vote despite almost surely exceeding the state as a whole in population growth in recent years. The decline is almost wholly attributable to extremely low turnout in Jefferson Parish, a historically Republican area that Mary Landrieu has run well in previously and a place her popular brother, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, should very much help.
Finally, let’s look at some key parishes to watch on Election Night. These are the ones to tune into, and what to watch in each:
1. Calcasieu Parish: 52% of the total vote (President Obama received less than 35% here in 2012)
A win here will mean she’s able to hold the margin in smaller conservative cities.
2. Cameron Parish: 50% of the total vote (President Obama received less than 11% here in 2012)
A win here bodes well for Mary’s support in Cajun Country, as well as proof positive her incredible constituent services are paying off. Running almost 40 points ahead of the President is doable in few places, this being one.
3. East Baton Rouge Parish: 60% of the total vote and a 20,000+ margin
A strong margin here neutralizes Bill Cassidy’s home advantage as well as demonstrates the Democrats’ growing advantage in the state capital.
4. Jefferson Parish: 56% of the total vote and a 10,000+ margin
A good showing here will point to Mary receiving the support she needs from moderate white women to win statewide.
5. Lafourche Parish: 45% of the total vote (President Obama received less than 25% here in 2012)
A parish that has trended against us in recent elections, a decent showing here will bode well for her in rural areas across South Louisiana.
6. Orleans Parish: 90% of the total vote and a 80,000-90,000 margin
Turnout, turnout, turnout; Mary needs her home to come home for her in a big way. Democrats haven’t broken 90% in New Orleans in living memory, but if anyone can do it, it is the Landrieu machine.
I hoped you've found this summary both informative and hopeful. If you’d like to dig deeper into past election data, I have a nice document on Google Drive detailing results from 2002 and 2008 that can be found HERE. Fingers crossed that we return Mary Landrieu to Washington to fight for Louisiana.
UPDATE: I am embarrassed this wasn't included in the original, but if you are registered to vote today in Louisiana, PLEASE DO SO! Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, and please remember to bring a photo ID. Find your polling location at www.gonnavote.com.
I have had the immense pleasure of knowing Mary Landrieu for the better part of a decade now, and I can honestly say there is not a single legislator in Washington who fights harder for their constituents than Mary. Louisiana is sinking into the ocean, who do you want in DC making sure federal dollars get back home after the next big storm, the chairwoman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee or a first-term backbencher who voted AGAINST recovery dollars after Hurricane Sandy?