Want an "upset" pick for Election Night 2014? Mark Schauer (D-MI) could be that guy.
After twenty-four months, and well over 2000 general election surveys (our own Daily Kos Elections polling database
topped out at 2090 polls), the 2014 midterm election cycle is down to the one day that matters more than any other: Election Day in America.
And, perhaps more than any other recent cycle in memory, this election cycle has an overflowing pile of races where the outcome is far from certain. Polls might show consistent edges for one candidate or the other in many of these high-profile contests, but what advantages exist live well within the margin of error.
If you don't believe me, head below the fold and check out the final 135 polls of the 2014 election cycle, along with some final thoughts about this wonderful (and often, admittedly, maddening) expression of democracy that is already underway.
AK-Sen (PPP—D): Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45
AK-Sen (Rasmussen): Dan Sullivan (R) 47, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 42
AR-Sen (Opinion Research Associates—D): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 43
AR-Sen (PPP—D): Tom Cotton (R) 49, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 41
CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Cory Gardner (R) 45, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 43
CO-Sen (PPP—D): Cory Gardner (R) 48, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45
CO-Sen (YouGov): Cory Gardner (R) 43, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 42
GA-Sen (PPP—D): David Perdue (R) 46, Michelle Nunn (D) 45
GA-Sen (Landmark Communications—R): David Perdue (R) 50, Michelle Nunn (D) 46
GA-Sen (Insider Advantage): David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 45
GA-Sen (SurveyUSA): David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44
GA-Sen (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Michelle Nunn (D) 46, David Perdue (R) 46
GA-Sen (NBC News/Marist): David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 44
GA-Sen (YouGov): David Perdue (R) 44, Michelle Nunn (D) 42
GA-Sen (Vox Populi—R): David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 43
IA-Sen (PPP—D): Joni Ernst (R) 48, Bruce Braley (D) 45
IA-Sen (Quinnipiac): Bruce Braley (D) 47, Joni Ernst (R) 47
IA-Sen (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Joni Ernst (R) 48, Bruce Braley (D) 47
IA-Sen (Selzer/Des Moines Register): Joni Ernst (R) 51, Bruce Braley (D) 44
IA-Sen (YouGov): Bruce Braley (D) 43, Joni Ernst (R) 42
IA-Sen (Fox News): Joni Ernst (R) 45, Bruce Braley (D) 44
IA-Sen (CNN/ORC): Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 47
IA-Sen (Rasmussen): Joni Ernst (R) 48, Bruce Braley (D) 47
IA-Sen (Ipsos/Reuters): Bruce Braley (D) 45, Joni Ernst (R) 45
IL-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 51, Jim Oberweis (R) 41
KS-Sen (PPP—D): Greg Orman (I) 47, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 46
KS-Sen (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 47, Greg Orman (I) 46
KS-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 38, Greg Orman (I) 37
KS-Sen (Fox News): Greg Orman (I) 44, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 43
KY-Sen (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 50, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41
KY-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 50, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42
LA-Sen-General (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 44, Bill Cassidy (R) 36, Rob Maness (R) 15
LA-Sen-General (PPP—D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 43, Bill Cassidy (R) 35, Rob Maness (R) 15
LA-Sen-Runoff (NBC News/Marist): Bill Cassidy (R) 50, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 45
LA-Sen-Runoff (PPP—D): Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 47
MA-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 52, Brian Herr (R) 38
MA-Sen (Western New England College): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 54, Brian Herr (R) 34
ME-Sen (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 57, Shenna Bellows (D) 37
MI-Sen (Mitchell Research): Gary Peters (D) 52, Terri Lynn Land (R) 40
MI-Sen (PPP—D): Gary Peters (D) 51, Terri Lynn Land (R) 38
MN-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Al Franken (D) 51, Mike McFadden (R) 40
NC-Sen (National Research—R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 41, Thom Tillis (R) 41
NC-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 44
NC-Sen (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 45
NC-Sen (Harper Polling—R): Thom Tillis (R) 46, Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44
NC-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 41
NC-Sen (Fox News): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43, Thom Tillis (R) 42
NC-Sen (CNN/ORC): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46
NH-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Scott Brown (R) 47
NH-Sen (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Scott Brown (R) 47
NH-Sen (Univ. of New Hampshire): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Scott Brown (R) 45
NH-Sen (New England College): Scott Brown (R) 49, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48
NH-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52, Scott Brown (R) 45
NJ-Sen (Monmouth): Sen. Cory Booker (D) 54, Jeff Bell (R) 40
OK-Sen-A (Sooner Poll): Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 63, Matt Silverstein (D) 28
OK-Sen-B (Sooner Poll): Jim Lankford (R) 59, Connie Johnson (D) 28
OR-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 53, Monica Wehby (R) 32
TN-Sen (Middle Tennessee State Univ.): Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 44, Gordon Ball (D) 26
VA-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 49, Ed Gillespie (R) 40
VA-Sen (Christopher Newport Univ.): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 51, Ed Gillespie (R) 44
VA-Sen (Vox Populi—R): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 44, Ed Gillespie (R) 40
AK-Gov (PPP—D): Bill Walker (I) 46, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 45
AK-Gov (Rasmussen): Bill Walker (I) 50, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 43
AR-Gov (Opinion Research Associates—D): Mike Ross (D) 43, Asa Hutchinson (R) 39
AR-Gov (PPP—D): Asa Hutchinson (R) 51, Mike Ross (D) 41
CA-Gov (Zogby Analytics): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 51, Neel Kashkari (R) 33
CA-Gov (Los Angeles Times): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 56, Neel Kashkari (R) 37
CO-Gov (Quinnipiac): Bob Beauprez (R) 45, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 43
CO-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Bob Beauprez (R) 46
CO-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 44, Bob Beauprez (R) 42
CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 47, Tom Foley (R) 44
CT-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 48, Tom Foley (R) 47
CT-Gov (PPP—D): CT-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 44, Tom Foley (R) 41
FL-Gov (Quinnipiac): Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41
FL-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 44, Charlie Crist (D) 44
FL-Gov (Zogby Analytics): Charlie Crist (D) 45, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 38
FL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Charlie Crist (D) 41
FL-Gov (SEA Polling): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 47, Charlie Crist (D) 44
GA-Gov (Landmark Communications—R): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 51, Jason Carter (D) 45
GA-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 43
GA-Gov (Insider Advantage): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 44
GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 42
GA-Gov (NBC News/Marist): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 48, Jason Carter (D) 43
GA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 45, Jason Carter (D) 41
GA-Gov (Vox Populi—R): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 49, Jason Carter (D) 42
IA-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 51, Jack Hatch (D) 40
IA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 52, Jack Hatch (D) 41
IA-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 55, Jack Hatch (D) 37
IA-Gov (Selzer/Des Moines Register): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 59, Jack Hatch (D) 35
IA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 49, Jack Hatch (D) 35
IA-Gov (Fox News): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 53, Jack Hatch (D) 36
ID-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Butch Otter (R) 49, A.J. Balukoff (D) 37
IL-Gov (Ogden and Fry—R): Bruce Rauner (R) 49, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 45
IL-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 47, Bruce Rauner (R) 45
IL-Gov (We Ask America—R): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 49, Bruce Rauner (R) 45
KS-Gov (PPP—D): Paul Davis (D) 46, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 45
KS-Gov (PPP for Center for American Progress—D): Paul Davis (D) 48, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 44
KS-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 39, Paul Davis (D) 38
KS-Gov (Fox News): Paul Davis (D) 48, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 42
MA-Gov (PPP—D): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 42
MA-Gov (Western New England College): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 41
MA-Gov (YouGov/U-Mass Amherst): Martha Coakley (D) 47, Charlie Baker (R) 44
ME-Gov (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Mike Michaud (D) 45, Gov. Paul LePage (R) 44, Eliot Cutler (I) 9
MI-Gov (Mitchell Research): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 47, Mark Schauer (D) 47
MI-Gov (Clarity Campaign Labs—D): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 45
MI-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 45
MN-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 47, Jeff Johnson (R) 42
NH-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Walt Havenstein (R) 43
NH-Gov (Univ. of New Hampshire): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Walt Havenstein (R) 43
NH-Gov (New England College): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 44
NH-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 42
NY-Gov (Zogby Analytics): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 55, Rob Astorino (R) 34
OH-Gov (Fox News): Gov. John Kasich (R) 51, Ed FitzGerald (D) 36
OK-Gov (SoonerPoll): Gov. Mary Fallin (R) 48, Joe Dorman (D) 40
OR-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 50, Dennis Richardson (R) 40
PA-Gov (Muhlenberg College): Tom Wolf (D) 51, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 39
PA-Gov (Magellan—R): Tom Wolf (D) 50, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 43
TN-Gov (Middle Tennessee State Univ): Gov. Bill Haslam (R) 51, Charlie Brown (D) 18
WI-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 45, Mary Burke (D) 43
WI-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Mary Burke (D) 47
AK-AL (PPP—D): Rep. Don Young (R) 47, Forrest Dunbar (D) 41
CA-52 (SurveyUSA): Carl DeMaio (R) 45, Rep. Scott Peters (D) 44
GA-01 (Landmark Communications—R): Buddy Carter (R) 60, Brian Reese (D) 37
GA-10 (Landmark Communications—R): Jody Hice (R) 61, Ken Dious (D) 32
GA-12 (Landmark Communications—R [11/2]): Rick Allen (R) 47, Rep. John Barrow (D) 46
GA-12 (Landmark Communications—R [10/30]): Rick Allen (R) 48, Rep. John Barrow (D) 44
ME-01 (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 56, Isaac Misiuk (R) 20
ME-02 (Maine Peoples Resource Center): Bruce Poliquin (R) 43, Emily Cain (D) 42, Blaine Richardson (I) 10
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 47, Frank Guinta (R) 47
NH-01 (New England College): Frank Guinta (R) 52, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 43
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 49, Marilinda Garcia (R) 38
NH-02 (New England College): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 53, Marilinda Garcia (R) 42
NY-01 (Siena): Lee Zeldin (R) 50, Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 45
NY-11 (Siena): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) 53, Dominic Recchia (D) 34
NY-18 (Siena): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 49, Nan Hayworth (R) 44
True poll aficionados probably can look at the monstrosity above, and be able to immediately see that there is a rather daunting pile o' polling that isn't listed here.
Last Friday, YouGov, as part of their project for CBS and the New York Times, released data in all 435 House districts. In most cases, however, it is difficult to really call them "polls", since the number of individuals surveyed in some cases were as low as 25 responses. The majority of them had samples of well under 200 responses, making the margins of error prohibitively high.
Why so few responses? Well, remember that YouGov's online polling was based on an opt-in panel. By a combination of socioeconomic factors (check WHERE the low-response numbers are) plus lack of interest in some places with few competitive elections, some geographic areas were less represented than others. However, there were some districts that had respectable samples, so if you are interested in what YouGov had to say in those races (which included, via oversampling, several high-interest races), feel free to check out their data here.
Elsewhere, the final days of the polling of the 2014 election cycle, with few exceptions, reinforced three themes:
- This last wave of horserace polls, as most of October's polls have done, have established pretty clear favorites (in terms of determining which candidate in competitive battles are in the lead.
- While the leaders have become fairly consistent, the margins by which said candidates lead are, on average, pretty minimal, casting doubt on the final outcome.
- To add a further dollop of confusion, some of the margins in those "final polls" from the various outfits eyeing the races were pretty dispersed. Example: there is a eleven-point spread in how pollsters, in their final offerings, viewed New Hampshire's Senate race. So, it's either a four-point Brown upset, or a fairly easy seven-point win for Shaheen. Glad we could clear that up for you!
Consider a quick glance of the toss-up races for the U.S. Senate. To dive into these races, we will explore two points—(a) who pollsters have seen as leading the race, and (b) what the average lead has been in those same polls.
TOSSUPS—U.S. SENATE (POLLS RELEASED SINCE 10/20/2014)
AK-Sen:
LEADING: Sullivan has led in 57 percent of polls, Begich 28 percent
MARGIN: Begich has an average lead of 0.6 points.
CO-Sen:
LEADING: Gardner has led in 74 percent of polls, Udall 21 percent
MARGIN: Gardner has an average lead of 2.3 points
IA-Sen:
LEADING: Ernst has led in 65 percent of polls, Braley 12 percent
MARGIN: Ernst has an average lead of 1.4 points
KS-Sen:
LEADING: Orman has led in 60 percent of polls, Roberts 30 percent
MARGIN: Orman has an average lead of 0.6 points
LA-Sen (Runoff)
LEADING: Cassidy has led in 100 percent of polls
MARGIN: Cassidy has an average lead of 4.6 points
NC-Sen:
LEADING: Hagan has led in 60 percent of polls, Tillis 20 percent
MARGIN: Hagan has an average lead of 0.7 points
NH-Sen:
LEADING: Shaheen had led in 71 percent of polls, Brown 24 percent
MARGIN: Shaheen has an average lead of 2.1 polls
So, in each of the seven Senate tossups on Election Eve, one candidate has been seen as the leader in each race by fairly decisive margins. But the margins (Louisiana excepted) are all miniscule. So, while one can argue that ... say ... Greg Orman has led in most recent polling, no one in Team Orman is remotely comfortable, given the narrowness of the margins.
To add another layer of complexity, the gubernatorial races have been considerably more equivocal in terms of declaring leaders.
My favorite example: Florida. In 15 polls released since October 20th, there have been ... wait for it ... five polls showing incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Scott leading and five polls showing Democratic challenger Charlie Crist out front. The other five polls? Tied. That, friends, is the living embodiment of a tossup.
(By the way, if you want to try to pick a winner based on the polling average in the Sunshine State? Go ahead—in those same 15 polls, Crist has an average lead of ... 0.2 points.)
But, even in the gubernatorial races, the same "clear leader/unclear margin" phenomenon is present in a bunch of races.
Take Wisconsin as a representative example. Scott Walker has led in six of the seven polls released over the last two weeks. However, in four of them, the lead was the same: one point. Indeed, aside from the Marquette poll last week that sent Wisconsin Republicans into premature...um...jubilation, only one other poll since April has given either candidate a lead of greater than four points. So, even though Walker is leading in the preponderance of polls in his re-election bid, it is still a classic tossup, because no one outside of Marquette sees him with anything other than a "lead" of a point or two.
What's more: some of those races with a consistent leader not only have narrowing margins, but also a trajectory shift on top of that.
If you want an "upset special", I have one that I feel in my bones: Michigan's governor's race between incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Snyder and former Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer. Now, if you look at the polls since October 20th, you get an average lead of 1.8 points for Snyder, and he has led in the majority of the twelve polls conducted in that time span (58% of polls, versus just 17% for Schauer).
However, and this is critical: two of Snyder's best polls were an EPIC-MRA poll (released October 21st) that showed the incumbent up by eight points, and a Mitchell Research poll (released last week) that had Snyder plus-5. The bad news for Snyder? Those same two pollsters went back into the field before Election Day. EPIC-MRA saw Snyder's lead erode from 8 points down to 2 points. Mitchell, unofficially the final pollster to chime in for the whole cycle, threw out a new poll on Monday evening that had Snyder going from a 5-point lead last week to dead even going into Election Day. Snyder cannot be pleased that the two pollsters that gave him any kind of cushion no longer are as confident in his prospects.
So, what does this all mean? It means that pollsters are all seeing the same "leader", but they are not, in a large number of cases, seeing much of a "lead."
Therefore, Democrats have to be realistic in their prospects for Election Night, but not necessarily pessimistic. To put it another way: given how many different pollsters are seeing the same thing, it would be an "upset" at this point if, say, Bruce Braley or Mark Udall were to win their respective Senate races. But ... it would not be a very big upset, given the very modest margins in which their opponents have "led" in late polling.
However, to throw a bit of a cloud over the proceedings here, just as it would only be a very mild surprise to see Braley or Udall take a win, it would also be an equally modest shock to see Tillis or Brown win their races, given that the polls have seen them as underdogs, but only by the most minuscule of margins.
But the bottom line is that there are just a shocking number of races, even at this very final hour of the cycle, where no outcome would be truly surprising. Consider that, in 2012, only four states finished within a four-point margin out of the 51 presidential contests. In the Senate contests? four Senate races fell within the same 5.0 percent range.
Election Night 2014? Our own Election Outlook projects eight races within that range. Hell, as of Monday afternoon, it projected five races within two points!
To say that it would be dangerous to make sweeping conclusions based off of the polling data for this cycle, even though we have a pretty large pool of surveys (2090 polls for the cycle, when all was said and done), would be an understatement.
What we can conclude, from the data available, is that Wednesday morning is bound to be the beginning of a fascinating discussion about elections in America. If, as many Democrats allege, the polls have been off, and off consistently in a single direction, that will become the genesis of what will be a critical discussion of how to rectify those errors in advance of one of the more anticipated presidential cycles in recent memory. If the GOP scores a decisive victory, Democrats will have to undertake a ton of soul searching to figure out how to be more than a once-in-four years party. The polls have not been decisive in this cycle, but they've been consistent. But have they been consistently right?
We'll know 24 hours from now. At least ... we think we'll know 24 hours from now.