Democrats need to pick up one seat in the Virginia Senate in order for it to return to their control. This is a tall order, given that most of the Republican-held seats are heavily Republican. The Democrats will also be defending some of their seat. What follows are the ten seats I expect to be most competitive next year. I have given the district numbers, incumbents, when they were elected, the principal localities for each district, and the 2013 numbers for the Governor and Attorney General races, as they were both close contests. I have also given my race rating for each seat.
1. SD-01 - John Miller (D), first elected 2007 (Newport News/Williamsburg; 55-38 McAuliffe, 56-44 Herring)
Rating: Lean Democratic
Miller narrowly won in 2011 after redistricting shored up his seat significantly. He faced some ethical questions that seem to have dissipated since then, but Republicans could give him a tough fight again. A potential candidate could be former Del. Mike Watson, who served one term before losing in 2013.
2. SD-06 - Lynwood Lewis (D), first elected 2014 (Eastern Shore/Norfolk; 52-41 McAuliffe, 53-47 Herring)
Rating: Tossup
Lewis was expected to romp into this seat following Sen. Ralph Northam's election to Lt. Governor in 2013. However, he ended up squeaking by with an 11-vote margin over Wayne Coleman, who was not a perfect candidate himself. I guess this kind of predicted Warner's narrow win, with conservative voters defecting from a candidate they supported previously.
Expect Republicans to put up a fight again here. They don't have much of a bench, but Coleman could run again, or one of the losers from the 2014 Republican nomination convention. It is unlikely that we'll see their strongest candidate, freshman Del. Rob Bloxom Jr., run. He most likely has his House seat for life, so he probably won't want to give that up.
3. SD-10 - John Watkins (R), first elected 1998 (Richmond suburbs; 47-42 McAuliffe, 52-48 Herring)
Rating: Likely Republican
Democrats really need to make a play for this seat, it's one of the few where they might have a chance to pick up a seat. Watkins faced an underfunded Some Dude challenger in 2011 and won by a less-than-impressive 57-43 margin. Unfortunately, Democrats don't have much of a bench here.
4. SD-13 - Dick Black (R), first elected 2011 (Loudoun; 50-45 Cuccinelli, 51-49 Obenshain)
Rating: Likely Republican
Black has a history of making crazy far-right statements, but he easily won 57-43 in this seat that was newly-created in 2011. This is another area where Democrats will struggle to find a candidate; their performance in Loudoun County in recent elections, with the exception of SD-33, has been pretty poor.
5. SD-17 - Bryce Reeves (R), first elected 2011 (Spotsylvania/Orange/Albemarle; 49-43 Cuccinelli, 53-47 Obenshain)
Rating: Likely Republican
For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. One precinct more in Albemarle and this seat may have been retained by Sen. Edd Houck in 2011; he lost by just over 200 votes. Freshman Reeves is probably pretty safe here, but VPAP reports that he already has an opponent: Traci Dippert, who ran for a hopelessly-red House of Delegates seat in 2013 but did manage to raise quite a bit of money. If she turns out to be a good candidate and raises a bunch again, this one could be interesting.
6. SD-21 - John Edwards (D), first elected 1995 (Roanoke/Montgomery; 49-41 McAuliffe, 51-49 Herring)
Rating: Likely Democratic
Edwards turned back a challenge from Del. Dave Nutter in 2011 by a 56-44 margin. He has an opponent already, retired surgeon Nancy Dye, who, like the Senator, hails from Roanoke. I'm not expecting too much trouble for Edwards, but southwestern Virginia is a tough sell for any Democrat, even if the district is anchored by Roanoke and Blacksburg.
7. SD-29 - open Democratic seat (Prince William/Manassas; 57-39 McAuliffe, 59-41 Herring)
Rating: Tossup
This is the seat held by longtime Senator Chuck Colgan. Don't let the toplines fool you, this district faces severe Democratic dropoff in off-off-year elections. Colgan himself only managed a 55-45 win over a candidate who was literally funded by the Republican Party at the last minute: they dumped over $450,000 into the race in October 2011. Prior to that, he had raised basically no money.
The field actually appears to be set at this point. The Democrats have Atif Qarni running, who narrowly lost to Del. Bob Marshall in 2013, while the Republicans have Manassas City Councilman Ian Lovejoy. Expect the Republicans to make a major play for this seat.
8. SD-33 - Jennifer Wexton (D), first elected 2014 (Loudoun/Fairfax; 56-38 McAuliffe, 60-40 Herring)
Rating: Lean Democratic
This was Attorney General Mark Herring's seat in the State Senate. Wexton had a lot less trouble in the special election than Lynwood Lewis, winning 53-38 against John Whitbeck in the middle of a snowstorm. I expect Republicans to go after this seat again, but despite being dominant in Loudoun, they don't seem to have much of a bench here. Whitbeck himself already had one loss to his name, having lost a House of Delegates primary in 2011.
9. SD-37 - Dave Marsden (D), first elected 2010 (Fairfax; 55-39 McAuliffe, 58-43 Herring)
Rating: Likely Democratic
Marsden defeated Jason Flanary in 2011 by a 54-46 margin. I would be surprised if the Republicans make this a top-tier target, since they have some more tempting targets, but as they're mostly playing offense (as usual), they'll probably invest something in this seat again. Marsden, however, has a clear edge, as they will unlikely be able to recruit anyone with electoral experience. (Given the district's serpentine shape, it's hard to tell who might live in it. Del. Tim Hugo, maybe?)
10. SD-39 - George Barker (D), first elected 2007 (Alexandria/Fairfax/Prince William; 57-38 McAuliffe, 59-41 Herring)
Rating: Lean Democratic
Barker had a close race in 2011, defeating Miller Baker 53-47. The district is fairly polarized, stretching from Democratic Alexandria and inner Fairfax to Republican southern Fairfax and northern Prince William County. This polarization will likely lead Barker to only a narrow win again, but it will take a strong Republican tailwind to knock him off. Of course, Republicans need a candidate first.
Bonus seat:
11. SD-07 - Frank Wagner (R), first elected 2000 (Virginia Beach; 47-46 Cuccinelli, 53-47 Obenshain)
Rating: Safe Republican
Just mentioning this one as it's the closest thing to a swing seat after SD-10. Wagner most likely will end up unopposed again, but Democrats need to challenge this district if they want to have any lasting chance of a majority in the Senate.