In theory he's undecided,
In fact he's voting for Braley
Braley Pulls Into Tie With "Likely" Voters - Leads "Actual" Voters By 20%
Earlier this week I dairies that Quinnipiac had Democrat Bruce Braley up by 21 points among early voters while early voters appeared to be 33% of the electorate. Some folks assumed that had to be an error because... well, it sure looked like an error! I mean, the ferocious GOTV machine the DSCC, MoveOn and OFA have been bragging about for months would have to actually be working for Braley to have a 19% lead with sooooo many turning out to vote early. Well, today, withtheir last Iowa pollbefore the real Iowa poll tomorrow, Quinnipiac gives us reason to think that may just be the case.
LIKELY VOTERS....................................
Already
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted
Braley 47% 2% 94% 44% 44% 51% 56%
Ernst 47 95 5 44 52 42 36
Clearly this is a tremendously polarized election and Independents are splitting right down the middle amongst the total pool but those Ds and Is and yes, Rs that are casting an early ballot are breaking bad for the Democrat. Methinks this is probably reflective of down ballot races too. We have recently been treated to thoughts about why Democrats may be under sampled in polling though out the country due to demographic realities. The younger, the minority, the poor tend to be harder to get in touch with and they more likely get caught in a "likely voter" screen. Just how big of an impact could this Blue advantage have when they turn off the voting machines tomorrow?
LIKELY
VOTERS.................................... Already
Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted
31% 34% 32% 49% 51% 40%
Quinnipiac is saying that 40% of "Likely" voters are "Actual" voters. Clearly Republican Joni Ernst is rocking amongst "theoretical" voters. This is what success would look like if the Bannock Street Project was working. I'll take my chances.
If you've been rocking the GOTV in Iowa or Anywhere USA, this is your validation, tomorrow you get your reward.