Primary day in New Hampshire is upon us tomorrow and there is still a competitive GOP primary for the second congressional district.
The second district shares the borders of Vermont, Massachusetts and Canada, and at a PVI of D+3 is the more liberal of the state’s two districts. This gives the Democratic incumbent Ann Kuster an edge, but is by no means a sure thing. It is 52% urban, 48% rural and comprises all or parts of 8 different counties.
Belknap County: Center Harbor: 0% of the electorate
Cheshire County: 10% of the electorate
Coos County: 5% of the electorate
Grafton County: everything except Campton: 13% of the electorate
Hillsborough County: everything except Bedford, Goffstown, Manchester, and Merrimack: 31% of the electorate
Merrimack County: everything except Hooksett: 24% of the electorate
Rockingham County: Atkinson, Deerfield, Northwood, Salem, and Windham.: 9% of the electorate
Sullivan County: 6% of the electorate
The candidates.
There are five candidates running for the nomination, but only three are expected to have a chance and that’s being very generous to one of the three.
Garcia, Marilinda.
Garcia is a two and a half term house representative from Rockingham District 8, first elected through a special election in 2009. With three degrees, a BA, Bachelors of Music and MPP from the Kennedy School of Government she’s a well-educated candidate. Her work experience includes serving as an adviser to businesses and higher education institution as well as being an adjunct professor of the harp at Phillips Exeter Academy, St. Paul's School and Gordon College. Garcia has been honored by Governing Magazine as one of 12 state legislators to watch in 2014. Note, Governing claims she won her seat in 2006, but they are confusing her with Bianca Garcia, who is likely a relative of Marilinda as they share the same address.
National and New Hampshire establishment Republicans are supporting her for many reasons, a big part of which is likely that her background as a young Hispanic woman is exactly what the party needs to change its image. Plus, with Garcia, Kuster couldn't argue that a vote for the Republican is a vote against the all female Congressional delegation.
Lambert, Gary:
Lambert is a former marine, owner and attorney for Lambert & Associates and is a resident of Nashua in Hillsborough County. He was elected to the nominally Democratic District 13 in 2010, benefiting from the year’s Republican lean. He declined to run in 2012, avoiding a likely defeat. He’s also a well-educated candidate, with degrees in Chemistry/biology, a Masters in Strategic Studies and a JD.
Lawrence, Jim.
A former state Representative, also from Nashua, Lawrence served three terms from 2003-2009. He has a military background having joined the United States Air Force Academy as a teen and later serving in the military.
A hindrance to his campaign was his late entry into the race, joining in June, three months before the primary. Lawrence is the only African American running for a federal office in New Hampshire this year.
Money.
Garcia.
As of August 20th, she’s raised $358K and spent $239K, with $118K left on hand. This puts her behind Lambert (see below) but she has had the benefit of outside spending on her behalf. This money has mostly come from the conservative “Americans for Prosperity” group, which has spent $585K to either support Garcia or attack Lambert. This outside money has put her total campaign funds at $942K.
Lambert.
For Lawrence, there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that he out raised Garcia by more than $100K in the same time frame, raising 487K, while spending only $277K with $210 left on hand. This suggests more grassroots support, despite the establishment falling behind Garcia.
The bad news is that he hasn’t had a dollar of outside spending on his behalf or any opposing Garcia. So, with Garcia’s aforementioned half a million dollars of outside spending, Lawrence is actually behind 487K to 942K, almost a 2:1 margin.
Lawrence.
He has not raised enough to file a report, although Opensecrets.org does show him disclosing $4,250. This suggests he won’t have much of an impact in the election.
Issues:
For most of the election, it’s been more of a contest of personalities than policy, but Lambert may have made a strategic error in recent days. It started with an ad suggesting that Garcia supports amnesty for undocumented immigrants, which used weak evidence such as leaving the board of Americans by Choice, a center right group supporting immigration reform and out of context discussions about immigration reform.
Garcia released a three minute long video of Veterans calling on Lambert to remove the ad and former Speaker of the House Bill O’Brien, known as the most conservative speaker the New Hampshire House ever had, called for Lambert to remove the ad.
Lambert doubled down by putting out an ad suggesting she supported Obamacare and a mailer accusing her of calling for $150 million in new taxes, which the Nashua Telegraph and Politifact New Hampshire rated “Pants on Fire.” This animosity continued into their recent debate where Garcia refused Lambert’s handshake.
Polling.
Lambert’s ads are desperate scorched Earth tactics likely due to polling which shows him far behind Garcia. A Magellan Strategies poll from early August shows Garcia winning with 38% of the vote, Lambert way behind at 13% and Lawrence at 2% and 45% undecided. A more recent internal poll from late August supposedly has Garcia up 23 points. The large number of undecideds gives Lambert an opportunity and if these ads work he could win, but clearly Garica is in the driver’s seat. There is one word of caution about how poor GOP polling has been this cycle and the difficulty of polling a US House primary, especially one that's not statewide.
Bases:
Based on numbers from the 2010 GOP primary, most of the district’s electorate is in Merrimack, Hillsborough and Grafton Counties. If Lambert is going to win, he’ll need to utilize his geographic base.
Garcia.
Since her district in Salem elects 8 representatives, it has around 2-3K voters, more than most House districts in New Hampshire. However, since they elect 8 different representatives, it also means that the voters don’t get to know each legislator the way they would with one legislator per district. Further, her base of Rockingham County only comprises 9% of the district, so she needs to expand. Based on polling however, she is doing well, likely in the urban counties of Hillsborough and Merrimack.
There has been a recent history of GOP women failing to win their primaries even when highly touted so she may find trouble, especially in the rural parts of the district.
Lambert.
Lambert wouldn’t run such a desperate campaign if he didn’t at least have a slim chance at victory, unless he’s acting irrationally. To win, he’ll need to do two things: the first is to maximize his electoral base of Nashua. He represented 7 of the cities 10 wards and in the 2010 GOP primary Nashua had 3600 voters, the largest of any city in the district. If he can win solidly here he may have a chance, especially if he does well in greater Hillsborough County.
The second thing he needs to do is win over rural voters. As an Hispanic young woman with advanced degrees, one of which is in music, it’s not difficult to believe she’d have difficulties with the rural base voters of the party. Further, the tone of Lambert’s ads, spending, taxes, Obamacare and of course immigration, are clearly aimed at rural and base voters who might distrust Garcia. Lambert as a former Marine seems like he’d fit the rural and base profile far better than she would. If he can win or do well in Hillsborough and win the rural counties of Grafton, Coos and Sullivan he may have a chance. Cheshire County, whose largest city is Keene, may be too urban for him, but its proximity to Hillsborough suggests it may be possible.
Lawrence.
With so little money, it’s hard to see Lawrence having much of an impact, except as a spoiler. With a history of electoral service in Nashua and a military background, he may be able to eat up some of Lambert’s hometown support. Conversely, as an African American used to getting elected in the city of Nashua, he may win over some potential Garcia voters. However, since the New Hampshire GOP is almost entirely white, he wouldn’t get too many votes from her and is likely a larger hindrance to Lambert, but with so money, it’s hard to tell.
Ultimately, Garcia has the advantage, but with nasty ads becoming the story of the race and the problems with winning a GOP primary as a woman or minority, an upset is certainly possible. Garcia is what Republicans need, but Lambert may be what they want. Look for the northern counties to show if Lambert has a chance, if he's winning there, by a large amount, he's in the race, otherwise Garcia has this locked up.
http://www.wmur.com/...
http://practicalpoliticking.com/...
http://www.cnn.com/...
http://nhjournal.com/...
http://www.wmur.com/...
http://www.opencongress.org/...
http://www.governing.com/...
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
http://nhjournal.com/...
http://www.wmur.com/...