This is an overview of the 2014 state senate elections in Maine. In this diary, I will go through every race, discussing the candidates and the outlook of each race. A small note of warning: Independent candidates have not yet filed for these elections, and if they do they could have a significant impact on the results.
In 2012, Democrats retook both houses of the Maine state legislature from the Republicans, and are now seeking to defend their majorities. Democrats currently have a 19-15 majority (with one independent) in the state senate, and an 89-58 majority (with 4 independents) in the state house of representatives. My prediction, as of now, is that Democrats will retain both houses with similar margins to what they have now.
With that being said, follow me below the fold for the individual races.
Here is a map of the state senate districts of Maine. You may want to have this map on another browser window as you read this diary.
District 1 (northern Aroostook): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 59.54%
This seat is open due to term-limited incumbent Troy Dale Jackson’s running for Congress in ME-02. The Democratic candidate is term-limited state representative Charles Theriault of Madawaska, and the Republican is former state representative and 2012 candidate Peter Edgecomb of Caribou. In 2012, Edgecomb significantly outperformed the Republican baseline, getting over 60% in Caribou (a town that Obama won). However, Theriault is a good candidate, and his French last name will certainly help here. The Democratic lean of the district would make an Edgecomb win a significant upset, but that cannot be counted out. LIKELY D.
District 2 (southern Aroostook): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 43.95%
This seat is open due to incumbent Roger Sherman being term-limited (Sherman is running for the state House). The Republican here is Michael Willette of Presque Isle, a former state representative who won in 2008 and 2010 as a Democrat, then switched parties after the 2010 election and was defeated in 2012 by a real Democrat. The Democratic candidate is Michael Carpenter of Houlton, a former state AG (statewide officials in Maine are appointed by the state legislature) and former state legislative candidate. While Carpenter has a good profile as an Army veteran, this district is likely too Republican for him. No Democrats in Maine represent districts anywhere near as Republican as this (only one or two Democratic state legislators currently represent Romney districts). Also, Willette is a good candidate coming from the largest town in the district. It’s hard to see how we win this. SAFE R.
District 3 (Somerset County): Rodney Whittemore (R-Skowhegan)
Obama ’12: 50.71%
This seat is held by Whittemore, a popular incumbent who got almost 60% in 2012. He’s being challenged by Democrat Craig Heavey of Canaan, who seems to be a Some Dude since there is almost nothing about him on the Internet. He’s likely just a sacrificial lamb. SAFE R.
District 4 (Piscataquis and parts of Somerset and Penobscot): Douglas Thomas (R-Ripley)
Obama ’12: 44.12%
This seat features an interesting Republican primary between two strongly conservative state legislators: Thomas, the incumbent, who lives in Somerset County, and state representative Paul Davis, who lives in Sangerville in Piscataquis County. Davis’ best chance of victory is to convince the residents of Piscataquis that since they make up half of the district, their state senator should come from there. The Democratic candidate is David Ziemer of Orneville Twp, who is a vice chair of the Piscataquis County Democratic Party. This is not a high-profile position, and Ziemer is little better than a Some Dude. That, plus the Republican nature of the district, makes a Republican win pretty much assured. SAFE R.
District 5 (Orono, Old Town, Millinocket): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 58.97%
This seat is open due to incumbent Emily Cain’s decision to run for Congress in ME-02. There is a Democratic primary here between former state representative Herbert Clark of Millinocket (who ran against Douglas Thomas in 2012) and current state representative James Dill of Old Town. Clark is to the right of Dill on social issues (he opposed Question 1 in 2012, which made sense considering his house district voted strongly against it), but they are probably both liberal on economic issues. Dill starts off with a significant advantage considering that Old Town is closer to the population center of the district, and socially-liberal Orono residents probably won’t support a guy who just two years ago opposed gay marriage (I’m not sure if Clark still does). However, Clark will perform extremely well in the Millinocket area, and if he holds down Dill’s margins in Orono and Old Town, then he could win. The Republican candidate is Wanda Lincoln, a Nutrition Education Professional at UMaine-Orono. She’s basically a Some Dudette and a sacrificial lamb in this Democratic district. SAFE D.
District 6 (Washington County): David Burns (R-Whiting)
Obama ’12: 49.49%
This district features a rematch of the 2012 election, where Burns defeated Democrat Anne Perry of Calais 43-38, with 19 percent going to an independent candidate. Perry is back, and if there are no independent candidates this time, then this could be an unpredictable race. It’s hard to tell whether the independent took more votes from Perry or Burns. Based on the election results and Burns’ incumbency, I’d say this race is LEAN R, but it could go either way.
District 7 (Hancock County): Brian Langley (R-Ellsworth)
Obama ’12: 57.92%
This is the most Democratic state senate district in Maine held by a Republican, and Langley won only 51-49 in 2012. This time he is being challenged by Democrat Theodore “Ted” Koffman of Bar Harbor, a former state legislator and executive director of the Maine Audubon Society. Langley won in 2012 by racking up a 2-1 margin in Ellsworth (a town that Obama won) and by limiting his losses on heavily-Democratic Mount Desert Island. Langley is no pushover, but Koffman is a good candidate, and this will be a close race. TOSSUP.
District 8 (Brewer area, western Hancock County): Ed Youngblood (R-Brewer)
Obama ’12: 48.47%
This is a bit of a strange district, combining the Democratic Bucksport area of Hancock County with the Republican-leaning Brewer area across the Penobscot River from Bangor. In 2012, Youngblood lost the Hancock portions of the district in landslides, but won the Penobscot portions in even bigger landslides, ultimately winning 56-44. This time he is being challenged by Democrat Paul Davis of Brewer (not to be confused with the Republican running in District 4). This Paul Davis is the chair of Penobscot County Democratic Party, and a state senate candidate in 2008. With Youngblood’s popularity in Penobscot County, it’s hard to see how he loses. SAFE R.
District 9 (Bangor and Hermon): Geoffrey Gratwick (D-Bangor)
Obama ’12: 55.79%
This is widely predicted to be one of the most expensive and marquee races in the Maine state senate in 2014. Gratwick, who defeated a Republican with 52 percent in 2012, faces Republican Cary Weston, a former mayor of Bangor. He may sound like a tough opponent, but in Bangor, the mayor is just the chair of the city council, so he’s never actually been in a citywide election. If you look this race up on the Internet, you’ll probably get the impression that it’s a tossup, but the decided Democratic lean of the district leads me to rate this race LEAN D.
District 10 (Western Penobscot County): Andre Cushing (R-Hampden)
Obama ’12: 42.81%
This is the most Republican state senate district in Maine. Cushing is challenged by Democrat Jaric Fontaine of Hampden, who seems to be a Some Dude. Cushing will cruise. SAFE R.
District 11 (Waldo County): Michael Thibodeau (R-Winterport)
Obama ’12: 53.63%
This district is coextensive with Waldo County. Thibodeau, who is the Senate Minority Leader, was re-elected 54-46 in 2012. He is challenged by Democrat Jonathan Fulford of Monroe, a small business owner. If Maine voters really wanted to punish their state legislators for not expanding Medicaid, this is where it would happen, but Fulford doesn’t seem to be a particularly impressive candidate. A Democratic win here would be a significant upset, but is not out of the question. LIKELY R.
District 12 (Knox County): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 60.36%
This district contains almost the entirety of Knox County. Its incumbent, Democrat Edward Mazurek, is not running for re-election. The Democratic candidate is former state representative David Miramant of Camden, who ran unsuccessfully for this seat in 2008. Mazurek has endorsed Miramant for the seat. The Republican candidate is Paula Sutton of Warren, a small business owner and an outspoken opponent of Medicaid expansion in Maine. The only reason I’m not rating this safe D is that this seat was held by a Republican from 2008 to 2012, but I expect Miramant to win easily. LIKELY D.
District 13 (Lincoln County): Chris Johnson (D-Somerville)
Obama ’12: 54.02%
This district contains all but one town of Lincoln County and one town each of Knox and Kennebec Counties. Chris Johnson won this seat in a special election in 2012, and then narrowly won re-election in November of that year with 50.3% of the vote. This year, the Republican he narrowly defeated, former state representative Leslie Fossel of Alna, is back for a rematch. Due to the extreme closeness of the 2012 race, it’s hard to call this race anything but a TOSSUP.
District 14 (southern Kennebec County): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 54.44%
This district is currently represented by Republican Patrick Flood, who is not running for re-election. There is a Democratic primary between David Bustin, a former mayor of Hallowell who ran for this seat in 2012 and got 49.3 percent of the vote, and Louis Sigel, the secretary for the Kennebec County Democratic Party. Due to his name recognition from his 2012 run, Bustin is probably favored in the primary. The Republican who will face one of them is former state senator Earle McCormick of West Gardiner, who represented this seat from 2006 to 2012. This is bad news for Democrats, for two reasons: one, McCormick is popular (he got 54% in 2008 and 61% in 2010), and two, politically he is to the right of Patrick Flood. If Bustin can hold onto the margins he got in the towns along the Kennebec River in 2012, and do better in Winthrop, then he could win, but McCormick might make that hard. This is a difficult race to handicap, but I’ll be cautious and say LEAN R.
District 15 (Augusta area): Roger Katz (R-Augusta)
Obama ’12: 54.56%
This district contains Augusta and the towns to its immediate north. Katz is a genuinely moderate Republican (having voted repeatedly to override LePage’s veto of Medicaid expansion), and he won re-election last year in a landslide. This year, he is being challenged by Democrat Anna Blodgett, a former state representative (2008-2012) for an Augusta district. While she may be able to cut into Katz’s margin in Augusta, her margins of victory as a state representative were less than impressive, and it’s unlikely that she’ll pull away enough voters from Katz to make it close. SAFE R.
District 16 (Waterville area): Colleen Lachowicz (D-Waterville)
Obama ’12: 57.75%
This district contains most of the towns around Waterville, and it added Fairfield in redistricting, making it slightly more Democratic. Lachowicz defeated a one-term Republican in 2012 by a 53-47 margin, and she’s running again. She is being challenged by Alek Fortier of Waterville, who ran for one of Waterville’s state House seats in both 2010 and 2012 and lost both times. Fortier doesn’t seem like much of a threat to Lachowicz. SAFE D.
District 17 (Franklin County): Tom Saviello (R-Wilton)
Obama ’12: 56.75%
This district includes the entirety of Franklin County and parts of western Kennebec County. Saviello, similar to Katz, is a widely popular, genuinely moderate Republican who has also voted repeatedly for Medicaid expansion. Also similar to Katz, Saviello won re-election in 2012 in a landslide. His 2012 opponent, Joanne Dunlap of Rangeley Plantation, is back for a rematch, but despite the blueness of this district, I don’t see why the results this year would be much different from how they were in 2012. SAFE R.
District 18 (Oxford County): John Patrick (D-Rumford)
Obama ’12: 57.17%
This district contains the northern and central portions of Oxford County, as well as Livermore and Livermore Falls in Androscoggin County. Patrick is a popular incumbent who won 57-30-13 in 2012. His Republican opponent is state representative Gary Knight of Livermore Falls, who represents a Democratic-leaning district. However, Livermore Falls was just added to the district in redistricting, and Knight is pretty unknown in Oxford County. Certainly, he’s a good get for the Republicans, but Patrick is still very likely to win. LIKELY D.
District 19 (South Oxford County and North Cumberland County): James Hamper (R-Oxford)
Obama ’12: 53.00%
Hamper is a first-term incumbent who received 54 percent of the vote in 2012. His Democratic challenger is Rose Rogers-Wells of Brownfield, who seems to be a Some Dude. It’s unfortunate that the Dems couldn’t find anyone better to run here, since this is definitely a winnable district, and Hamper is quite conservative. Out of an abundance of caution, I’m rating this race LIKELY R, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamper win by more than ten points.
District 20 (Auburn and west Androscoggin County): John Cleveland (D-Auburn)
Obama ’12: 54.11%
Cleveland, who has been described as a “quiet, but influential” lawmaker, defeated a Republican incumbent in 2012 by seven points. This year, he is challenged by Republican Eric Brakey, also of Auburn. Brakey is 25 years old, and has been described as a libertarian. He’s raised more money than any other state senate candidate in Maine this year. Brakey received publicity for a video where he danced in a swimsuit while filming a commercial. While certainly Brakey seems to be young and energetic, his inexperience and out-there political views will likely harm him on the campaign trail. LIKELY D.
District 21 (Lewiston): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 60.60%
This seat is coterminous with the city of Lewiston. Its Democratic incumbent, Margaret Craven, is term-limited this year. The Democratic candidate is state representative Nathan Libby, who received 64% of the vote in 2012. The Republican candidate is Patricia Gagne, who seems to be a Some Dude. This is not surprising, considering that Lewiston is a solidly Democratic city. Libby will win easily. SAFE D.
District 22 (north and east Androscoggin County): Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon)
Obama ’12: 49.24%
This seat was home to the closest state senate race in Maine in 2012, when Mason won re-election by only 28 votes, a margin of 50.07-49.93%. Mason has a stronger Democratic opponent this time in Androscoggin County Sheriff Guy Desjardins of Sabattus. The district got slightly more Republican in redistricting by losing Livermore and Livermore Falls, but it is still closely divided, and Androscoggin County doesn’t have the same historical Republican-ness that the rest of Maine has. While I’d say Mason is slightly favored because of incumbency, I’d still call the race a TOSSUP.
District 23 (Sagadahoc County): Eloise Vitelli (D-Arrowsic)
Obama ’12: 56.74%
This seat contains the entirety of Sagadahoc County and Dresden in Lincoln County. Vitelli is the newest member of the Maine Senate, having won a special election on August 27, 2013, and is running for re-election. Her Republican opponent is Linda Baker of Topsham, who seems to be a Some Dude as there is very little on Google about her. There is also a Green Party candidate in this race, Alice Knapp of Richmond. Vitelli has experience fending off both Republicans and Greens (she did so in the special election), but the Green nonetheless makes things less predictable. While I fully expect Vitelli to win by a significant margin, out of caution I will say LIKELY D.
District 24 (Brunswick area): Stanley Gerzofsky (D-Brunswick)
Obama ’12: 63.24%
This is a heavily-Democratic and strongly socially-liberal district on the Maine coast. Gerzofsky has represented the district since 2008, and he got 67 percent in 2012. He is opposed by Republican Jennifer Johnson, a small business owner, and Green Party candidate K. Frederick Horsch, who ran for the state House in 2012 and came in second, ahead of the Republican. Gerzofsky is very popular, and, despite the three-way race, he has nothing to worry about. SAFE D.
District 25 (Falmouth, Cumberland, Yarmouth, and Gray): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 55.74%
This area is rich, socially liberal, and has the highest voter turnout of anywhere in Maine. The incumbent state senator, Independent Richard Woodbury of Yarmouth, is not running for re-election. This district is the only one where both the Democrats and the Republicans have primaries. The Democratic candidates are Catherine Breen of Falmouth, a former chair of the Falmouth Town Council, and Steve Woods of Yarmouth, who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2012 as an Independent. The Republican candidates are Bill Gardiner of Yarmouth, a member of the Maine Republican State Committee, and David Savage of Falmouth, a former state representative from 2006 to 2008. Both of these primaries include one Falmouth candidate and one Yarmouth candidate, so Cumberland will probably decide the nominees. Based on the partisanship of the district (and the fact that all but one state representative in this area is a Democrat), I’ll rate the race LIKELY D for now, but that could change depending on who’s nominated.
District 26 (Windham and other areas northwest of Portland): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 51.27%
This district is currently represented by Republican Gary Plummer, who won in 2012 without a Democratic opponent and is now not running for re-election. The Democrat running is Bill Diamond of Windham, a popular former state senator (he got 60% even in 2010) who was termed out in 2012. The Republican candidate is David Call of Standish, who seems to be a Some Dude. People I’ve met who are in the know say that this is the Democrats’ most likely pickup this year. LIKELY D just because it’s open, though that may change to safe D.
District 27 (Inner Portland): Justin Alfond (D-Portland)
Obama ’12: 76.32%
This is the most Democratic district in Maine, and it’s represented by the President of the State Senate, Justin Alfond. Alfond’s opponents are Republican Peter Doyle, who ran for this same seat in 2010 and was defeated heavily, and Green Party candidate Asher Platts, who ran for this seat in 2012 and served as Alfond’s de facto opponent since no Republican was in the race. Obviously, Alfond is completely safe. SAFE D.
District 28 (Outer Portland, Westbrook): Anne Haskell (D-Portland)
Obama ’12: 72.01%
This is the second most Democratic district in Maine. Haskell, the no. 3 Democrat in the Maine Senate, is running again, and her opponents are Republican Rose Marie Russell of Westbrook, a Some Dude, and Green Party candidate Danielle Unterreiner of Portland. Haskell is completely safe. SAFE D.
District 29 (South Portland, Cape Elizabeth): Rebecca Millett (D-Cape Elizabeth)
Obama ’12: 66.63%
This is the third most Democratic district in Maine. Millett, a first-term incumbent, faces Republican John Ridge of South Portland, and Green Party candidate Mark Diehl. It’s hard to believe that this district actually had a close race in 2010, but it won’t this year. SAFE D.
District 30 (Scarborough, Gorham): James Boyle (D-Gorham)
Obama ’12: 54.67%
This district contains most of Scarborough, all of Gorham, and part of Buxton. Boyle, a first-term incumbent who won by over ten points in 2012, faces Republican state representative Amy Volk of Scarborough. Volk is a good get for the Republicans, however she’s hardly a force to be reckoned with in Scarborough, considering that she won re-election in 2012 by only 12 votes. That means that only half of her district, which is half of Scarborough, which is half of this senate district, voted for her (1/8 of her district in total). Additionally, Boyle lost Scarborough in 2012 but still won easily due to his popularity in Gorham. If things start to turn against the Dems, this is where Republicans could gain, but I think Boyle will be okay. LEAN D, but close to likely.
District 31 (Saco area): Linda Valentino (D-Saco)
Obama ’12: 59.62%
This district is dominated by Saco and Old Orchard Beach, and includes a few other inland towns. Valentino won 60% in 2012, and is challenged by Republican Michael Coleman, a former member of the Old Orchard Beach town council. He, and six of the seven town council members, was recalled in 2013 over a debate about the position of Town Manager. Thus, it’s unlikely that such a polarizing figure in his own town could mount a serious challenge to a strong incumbent in a Democratic district. SAFE D.
District 32 (Biddeford area): David Dutremble (D-Biddeford)
Obama ’12: 60.53%
This district is dominated by Biddeford and includes several smaller inland towns. In 2012, Dutremble won by only seven points against James Booth of Arundel, a Republican who ran as an independent. Booth is back for a rematch, this time running as a Republican. I have trouble seeing how someone with an ‘R’ next to their name is going to defeat an incumbent in a district like this. SAFE D.
District 33 (Sanford area): John Tuttle (D-Sanford)
Obama ’12: 55.28%
This district is based in the major town of Sanford and includes some small rural towns north of it. This is the only state senate race this year where a Democratic incumbent has a primary challenger; Tuttle (who got 62% in 2012) is being challenged by state representative Andrea Boland, also of Sanford. The winner will face Republican Adam McGee, who seems to be a Some Dude. Whichever Democrat wins the primary will definitely win the general. SAFE D.
District 34 (Berwick, Wells, Kennebunk): Ronald Collins (R-Wells)
Obama ’12: 52.35%
This district got more Democratic in redistricting by dropping some of the more conservative northern towns and gaining Kennebunk. Collins won a three-way race in 2012 with 46 percent of the vote, as a Democrat ran as an independent and split the left-leaning vote. This year, neither of Collins’ 2012 challengers are running again, instead Democrat Gary Connor of Kennebunk, a former state representative for two terms, is running. Connor is not well known outside of Kennebunk, but he’ll likely do well enough there to cancel out Collins’ margin in Wells, so the remaining towns may decide the winner. Collins has the edge for now due to incumbency. LEAN R.
District 35 (York, Kittery): Dawn Hill (D-York)
Obama ’12: 58.11%
This district is located at the southern tip of Maine. Hill is a strong incumbent who got 63 percent in 2012. Her Republican challenger is term-limited state representative Windol Weaver, also of York. Weaver got a less-than-inspiring 52 percent of the vote in 2012, so he’s not too popular, but since he is a sitting state legislator, I can’t quite call this district safe. LIKELY D.
Therefore, this leaves:
10 Safe D (5,16,21,24,27,28,29,31,32,33)
8 Likely D (1,12,18,20,23,25,26,35)
2 Lean D (9,30)
3 Tossup (7,13,22)
3 Lean R (6,14,34)
2 Likely R (11,19)
7 Safe R (2,3,4,8,10,15,17)
Thank you for reading, and I welcome any questions, comments, or concerns!