The state of Ohio is divided into 99 districts to form the Ohio House. Currently Republicans hold a 60-39 seat advantage; 40 seats are necessary in order to prevent the Republican Party from having a veto proof majority after the next election. After the 2010 elections, Republicans won a 59-40 majority. (From 2009-2011 Democrats had a 53-46 majority in the Ohio House.) Despite the fact that Democrats ran well in 2012, the new redistricting map actually allowed Republicans to gain a seat in the body.
All 99 seats are up for election in 2014. While Democrats are unlikely to gain a majority due to redistricting, there are several opportunities that could allow the party to cut into the Republican majority. At the very least, Democrats may be able to take away the Republican's veto proof status in the body (which is especially important if Ed FitzGerald is elected governor).
Below, I offer my analysis of the competitiveness of each race and an overall picture of the balance of power in the body.
Since there are so many districts in the state House, rather than include a map for each seat, here is a link to the map put out by the Secretary of State's office. The location of each district is noted in each write up for the competitive seats so you can know generally where to look on the map.
Safe D Districts (32 Districts): 8 (81.6% Obama), 9, (85.2% Obama), 10 (89.6% Obama), 11 (88.7% Obama), 12 (84.0% Obama), 13 (76.2% Obama), 14 (63% Obama), 15(59.2% Obama), 17(61.4% Obama), 18 (70.04% Obama), 20 (57.5% Obama), 22 (65.7% Obama), 25(84.9% Obama), 26 (82.2% Obama), 31 (68.7% Obama), 32 (77.4% Obama), 33 (74.6% Obama), 34 (77.7% Obama), 35 (65.7% Obama), 39 (83% Obama), 44(85.2% Obama), 45 (67.5% Obama), 46 (61.2% Obama), 49 (63.9% Obama), 56 (66.4% Obama), 58 (78% Obama), 60 (53.8% Obama), 63 (60.7% Obama), 64 (59.3% Obama), 75 (55.1% Obama), 89 (53.8% Obama), 94 (52.9% Obama)
None of these districts show much sign of competitiveness in November. Most of these safe districts are in the urban parts of Ohio such as Cleveland and Columbus or major college towns such as Athens, Ohio.
Of note are three safe Democrats who face primary challenges. In Cleveland, Representatives Bill Patmon (D-10) and John Barnes Jr. (D-12) face primary challenges from the left. Patmon will face former State Rep. Eugene Miller and Barnes will face Pepper Pike Council member Jill Miller Zimon.
In the Akron (Summit County) area, Rep. Zack Milkovich (D-35) faces a primary challenge from Assistant Akron Prosecuter Greta Johnson. Milkovich won a primary upset in 2010 over State Rep. Bob Otterman. Milkovich also upset the party favorite in a September 2013 primary for a local Clerk of Courts position (which actually pays more than 30k a year more than being a State Rep. despite seeming to be a lesser position). After heavy criticism from local papers as to his qualifications for the position, Milkovich lost in November by a wide margin with a number of Democratic voters defecting to vote for the Republican. Needless to say, the primary for State Representative in this district will be interesting to watch.
One other open seat primary of interest is the open seat primary for the seat of term limited Rep. Vernon Sykes (D-34) in Summit County where Emilia Sykes (daughter of Rep. Vernon Sykes and ex-Rep. Emilia Sykes) will face Summit County Council Member Frank Communale.
Likely D (4 Districts):
District 43- Roland Winburn (D), Obama won district 52-46.3%. This Dayton-area district contains some heavily Democratic areas in the city of Dayton (Montgomery County) and some heavily Republican areas in conservative Preble County and in the outlying parts of Montgomery County outside of the city of Dayton. Winburn won in 2012 by a 54-46% margin and is probably safe in most election years due to the Democratic parts of the district slightly outweighing the Republican parts of the district.
If African American turnout in Dayton were to lag or if John Kasich were to win reelection by an overwhelming margin, this district could potentially be at risk, making this a race to watch. Winburn's opponent is a Dayton-area attorney named Jeff Rezabek.
District 55- Open [Matt Lundy (D) term limited], Obama won district 54-44.4%. This Northeast Ohio district leans Democratic. With Democratic Rep. Matt Lundy term-limited, this Lorain County seat will feature a matchup between former assistant Lorain County Prosecutor Brendan Mackin (D) and North Ridgeville Prosecutor Nathan Manning (R). Manning is the son of State Sen. Gayle Manning (D) who is also up for reelection. (Interestingly, Elyria Councilmember Marcus Madison, who was originally set to run against Nathan Manning switched races and now will compete in the primary for the right to face Sen. Gayle Manning.)
Overall this district leans Democratic, but the Manning name could perhaps allow Nathan Manning to run ahead of the usual Republican percentage in this district. This district is nested inside Gayle Manning's Senate district and I suspect the fate of the two Manning's might be somewhat linked. Ultimately, I suspect that both Mannings will lose in November, but this race is at least worth watching.
District 59- Ronald Gerberry (D), Obama won district 51.3-47.2%. This district lands on the likely list rather than safe simply due to the narrowly divided partisan divide of this Mahoning County district (it lies outside the heaving Democratic city of Youngstown. Gerberry's Republican opponent Paul Mitchell seems to be a some dude and I suspect this district will move to safe later in the cycle.
District 96- Jack Cera (D), Romney won district 50.4-47.5%. Once again we observe an evenly divided district with a Democratic incumbent and a some dude Republican opponent in this case named Ron Ferguson. (Obama ran worse than the typical Democrat in this Appalachian/Ohio River district.) Ultimately, I suspect this district will end up safe for Cera in the end, but it deserves a place on the likely list for the time being.
Lean D (1 District): District 99: John Patterson (D), Obama won district 52.6-45.3%. Democrat John Patterson defeated Republican Casey Kozlowski in 2012 to win back this Northeast Ohio district that Democrats lost in the 2012 wave. This year, Patterson will face Nancy McArthur who is a member of the Chardon City Council and the vice mayor of Chardon. McArthur was defeated 2-1 by State Sen. Capri Cafaro (D) back in 2012 in race for State Senate. Ultimately, McArthur seems a bit too conservative for this slightly Democratic Leaning district. (For example, McArthur's Twitter Account shows a picture of her with Ted Cruz.) Nevertheless, this district is likely to be competitive due to the overall lean of the seat and McArthur's ability to run up the score in the Republican-leaning Geauga County part of the district.
Toss Up (5 Districts):
District 5- Nick Barborak (D), Romney won district 53.8-43.0%. This Appalachian district just south of Youngstown's Mahoning County features a rematch between Democratic Representative Nick Barborak and ex-State Rep. Craig Newbold. In 2012, Barborak defeated Newbold by only 507 votes. One difference this time is a presence of a Libertarian candidate Martin Elsass. An especially strong performance by Gov. John Kasich could hurt Barborak down ballot, although President Obama ran poorly in this district and Barborak still won in 2012. Overall, if forced to guess, I would predict that Barborak holds on, although I am only between 50 and 55 percent sure of that prediction.
District 7- Mike Dovilla (R), Romney won district 50.8-47.9%. Dovilla ousted Democrat Matt Patten from the State House in 2010, before defeating him again in 2012 by only 122 votes in this Cuyahoga County district in Northeast Ohio. A Columbus Dispatch article from early February notes that Patten might be replaced on the ballot by another Democratic, although I haven't seen anything discussing this option anywhere else. Patten could also be helped this time by a strong showing in Cuyahoga County by County Executive Ed FitzGerald in his run for Governor. Ultimately, I believe Dovilla will prevail in the end, but this race should be listed as a Toss Up due to the closeness of previous races.
District 28- Open [Connie Pillich (D) running for State Treasurer)], Romney won district 51.1-47.7%. Democrat Connie Pillich has done an excellent job holding down this Republican-tilting district outside of Cincinnati for Democrats, even eking out a win in 2010. Now Pillich is running for State Treasurer. The Democratic candidate will be ex-OSU student body President Micah Kamrass, while Republicans have a primary between several candidates. Kamrass has been excellent at fundraising, having raised $87,000 so far (second among all Democratic House candidates) and having $81,000 cash on hand. The strongest general Republican candidate looks to be Blue Ash Councilmember Rick Bryan, although two other candidates are also running. A candidate with some Tea Party backing named Jonathan Dever is also running, as well as a third candidate named Angel Clark who works in accounting and human resources for a landscaping company and is a GOP ward chair.
With the GOP primary unsettled and with this district having been competitive in the past, I view this seat as a pure Toss Up. Along with the 79th district, I view this seat as being a true coin flip.
District 36- Anthony DeVitis (R), Obama won district 51.2%-47.2%. Democrats got one of their strongest recruits of the cycle for this swing seat in Summit County Council member Paula Prentice. Prentice has consistently done well in holding down a swing seat on the county council. DeVitis was originally appointed to this seat to fill a vacancy and defeated Democrat Paul Collevechio in 2012 by a narrow 52.6-47.3% margin in 2012.
Overall, this race is likely to be closely contested and I expect it to remain close up to election day. One factor that might help DeVitis is the fact that Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, who once represented this Northeast Ohio district in the State House, will be on the ballot for reelection and could help Republican turnout a little here. Ultimately, however, this race seems like a pure toss up and if forced to pick I would actually predict Prentice wins, although it could just as easily go the other way.
District 79-Open [Ross McGregor (R) is term limited)], Obama won district 50.3-48.2%. With Rep. McGregor retiring due to term limits, this swing district in Clark County in Southwest Ohio is likely to be closely contested. Like the 28th district, this seat features a single Democratic candidate while Republicans have a multi-candidate primary. The Democratic candidate is a Sherriff's Deputy named Darrell Jackson who seems to have a good profile as a candidate despite never having run for office before. The Republican field includes Businessman Kyle Kohler, who lost a race for County Commissioner in 2012, an insurance agent named Rick Chimento, and a businessman and attorney named Argeri Lagos.
Like the 28th district, I view this seat as a pure Toss Up and will want to see what happens in the Republican primary. On one hand, Kohler's past run for office could be beneficial due to residual name identification. On the other hand, the fact that Kohler was unable to win an election in a more conservative constituency (Obama lost Clark County, but won this district), suggests that Kohler may be too conservative for this seat. Ultimately, I have no idea who will win here and won't even attempt to try until after the primary.
Lean R (4 Districts):
District 23- Cheryl Grossman (R), Romney won district 49.7-48.6%. This slightly R-leaning district in central Ohio's Franklin County faces a matchup between incumbent Republican Cheryl Grossman and challenger Richard Redfern, the brother of State Rep. and Democratic Party Chair Chris Redfern (D-89). It seems likely that Redfern will have the resources to compete in this district and I expect this seat to remain close up to Election Day although Grossman retains at least some of an advantage.
District 38- Marilyn Slaby (R), Romney won district 53.3- 45.1%. Although Mitt Romney won this district by a little over 8 percentage points, this district lands on the Lean R list due to the recruitment of a strong Democratic challenger. Tim Crawford, the former mayor of Norton and a member of the Summit County Council is the Democratic candidate. Crawford has easily won reelection to the county council for a number of years in a D-leaning district, although Crawford has also run well in the swingier parts of his council district. Ultimately, Slaby is still favored, but Crawford is the sort of candidate who could potentially win this seat. This seat contains parts of Summit County and parts of Stark County in Northeast Ohio.
District 78- Ron Hood(R), Romney won district 54.8%-43.2%. Once again, we see a strong Democratic challenger running in a Republican leaning district. This time, the Democratic candidate is Hocking County Prosecutor Laina Fetherolf Rogers. Furthermore, the conservative Republican incumbent Ron Hood doesn't seem to be especially well liked by the Republican Party. This race could end up very close, as long as the national Republican leanings of the seat don't serve as too big of an obstacle for Rogers. This district is located in South Central Ohio.
District 88- Rex Damschroder (R), possibly retiring due to petition signature problem, Romney won district 49.4-48.1%. Ohio has its very own Leeza Murkosky! Due to a signature problem on his petition, Republican Rep. Rex Damschroder won't be on the primary ballot. Apparently, under Ohio law, Damschroder can't run a as write in in the primary, but his wife Rhonda Damschroder can. The idea is that then Rhonda will step aside so that the party can appoint Rex to be their nominee. No word on which spellings of Damschroder will be permitted. It also will be interesting to see if voters know that they should write in Rhonda and not Rex. Another Republican, William Reineke is also running as a write in. All in all, the primary here should be interesting.
The Democratic candidate who Rex Damschroder defeated in 2012, Bill Young, is also running as a write in candidate. Yes, that's right, not a single candidate properly filed for this district! Anyway, due to the volatile nature of this race and the closeness of the district, I am keeping this North Central Ohio seat as Lean Republican until after the primary.
Likely R (10 Districts):
District 3- Tim Brown (R), Obama won district 51.3-46.5%. This Northwest Ohio district is the most Democratic-leaning district currently held by a Republican. Unfortunately, Democrats seem to have had a poor time in candidate recruitment for this district. An early February piece from the Toledo Blade mentions a candidate named Earl Britt running for Democrats, but Britt is not listed in filings with the Wood County Board of Elections. Instead, a write-in candidate named Steve Long is listed as the only Democratic candidate. Only because of the slight Democratic lean of this district does the seat did I not list this seat as safe Republican. Should 2014 become an especially strong Democratic year or should Long turn out to be an especially good candidate this seat might become competitive.
District 6- Marlene Anielski (R), Romney won district 51.4-47.6%. This Cuyahoga County district features a rematch between Anielski and Democrat Anthony Fossececa. In 2012, Anielski won by a 55.4-44.6 percentage point margin. Anielski is favored to win again in 2014, although an especially strong Cuyahoga County performance by Ed FitzGerald could potentially help make this district more competitive. Ultimately, however, this seat is likely to remain with the GOP.
District 16- Nan Baker (R), Romney won district 49.5-49.4%. Closely competitive at the presidential level, Republican Nan Baker has held this Cuyahoga County district since 2008. The Democratic candidate for this seat is teacher Todd LeVeck who lost a primary in this seat in 2012. The same logic I applied to the District 6 race applies here: Republican strongly favored, but one should still pay attention to the race.
District 19- Anne Gonzales (R), Romney won district 50.6-48%. This slightly R-leaning seat in the Columbus suburbs in central Ohio flipped to the GOP in 2010. Incumbent Gonzales faces a primary challenge from the right. The Democratic candidate for this seat appears to be an ex-Libertarian named Michael Johnston. Overall, I am leaving this seat at Likely R until the primary is over.
District 21- Mike Duffey (R), Romney won district 50.5%-48.3%. With a similar vote lean to district 21, this Franklin County (Columbus suburbs) district has the potential to be competitive. The Democratic candidate Dawn Valasco appears to be a member of the Worthington (OH) Library Board of Trustees. This district is worth watching, but Duffey retains a strong advantage.
District 24- Stephanie Kunze (R), Romney won district 50.2-48.3% One of three Columbus-area districts that Mitt Romney won with under 51 percent, incumbent Stephanie Kunze also faces a primary challenge from the right. The Democratic candidate Kathy Hoff is a dean at DeVry University- Columbus. Kunze retains an advantage, although the race would become more competitive if she were to lose the primary.
District 37- Kristina Roegner (R), Romney won district 50.6-48.2%. Voting narrowly for Romney in 2012, this northern Summit County district in Northeast Ohio has the potential to be competitive under the right circumstances. The Democratic candidate for this seat is attorney David Worhatch. Roegner is likely to win reelection, but this is a race worth watching.
District 50- Christina Hagan (R), Romney won district 56.1-42.2%. At 56.1% Romney, this seat is very favorable for Republicans. Democrats have a strong candidate in Ohio Board of Education Member Deborah Cain. Cain is probably too liberal for this district, but she is likely to at least put up a fight against incumbent Christina Hagan. This district is located in Stark County in Northeast Ohio.
District 95- Andy Thompson (R), Romney won district 58.1-39.5%. This district features a rematch between incumbent Andy Thompson (R) and Democratic challenger Charlie Daniels; in 2012 Thompson won with about 53 percent of the vote. While Thompson is certainly favored for reelection, not having President Obama on the ballot should be helpful for Daniels in this Southeast Ohio/Appalachian-based district.
District 98- Al Landis (R), Romney won district 57.2-40.5%. In 2012, the 98th district featured the closest race in all of Ohio, with incumbent Landis defeating ex-Rep. Josh O'Farrell in a 2010 rematch by only 8 votes. This time, the Democratic candidate will be ex-Sugarcreek Mayor Jerimiah Johnson. Johnson seems like a decent candidate, but at 57.2% Romney (the district was made more conservative in redistricting), this district gives Landis a decided edge as he goes for a third term. This East Central Ohio district is made up of conservative Holmes County (Amish Country) and Tuscarawas County, which voted for President Obama in 2008 and Governor Strickland in 2010 before taking a hard turn right in 2012.
Safe R (43 Districts): Districts 1 (59.2% Romney), 2 (58.7% Romney), 4 (61.2% Romney), 27 (60.1% Romney), 29 (36.4% Romney), 30 (68.6% Romney), 40 (56% Romney), 41 (56.4% Romney), 42 (61% Romney), 47 (54% Romney), 48 (53% Romney), 51 (58.9% Romney), 52 (66.6% Romney), 53 (60.5% Romney, 54 (64.8% Romney), 57 (52.9% Romney), 61 (54% Romney), 62 (70.7% Romney), 65 (66.9% Romney), 66 (64.5% Romney), 67 (60.33% Romney), 68 (61.6% Romney), 69 (57.1% Romney), 70 (58.4% Romney), 71(53.7% Romney), 72 (56% Romney), 73(59.6% Romney), 74(59% Romney), 76(58.3% Romney), 77 (55.6% Romney), 80 (67.6% Romney), 81 (61.8% Romney), 82 (62.6% Romney), 83 (62.4% Romney), 84 (75.5% Romney), 85 (63.2% Romney), 86 (57.8% Romney), 87 (59.9% Romney), 90 (52.5% Romney), 91 (60.5% Romney), 92 (54% Romney), 93 (59.4% Romney), 95 (58.1% Romney), 97 (52.6% Romney)
43 of Ohio's 99 districts are safe for the GOP by my analysis. Several of these seats do feature interesting primary races. In the 54th House District in Southwest Ohio, Rep. Peter Beck (R-54) faces multiple felony corruption charges and is facing a primary challenge. Rep Barbara Sears (R-47) in Northwest Ohio also faces a primary challenge, although her primary challenge results from her support of the Ohio Medicaid Expansion. Although her district is theoretically potentially somewhat competitive at 54 percent Romney if Sears were to lose the primary, no Democratic candidate filed for the seat.
Overall Picture: The most likely result of the 2014 elections to the Ohio General Assembly is a net change of only a few seats in either direction. If Republicans were to win all the Toss Up seats, the margin in the House would be 62-37 GOP; if Democrats were to sweep the Toss Up seats the margin would be 57-42 GOP. If I had to guess now, the final margin in the Ohio House will either be unchanged at 60-39 or Democrats will net a seat to make it 59-40.
While the gain of a single seat gain doesn't seem like much for Democrats, it actually has a great deal of import in terms of whether or not Republicans will have a veto proof majority in both chambers of the legislature. This, of course, becomes especially important if Ed FitzGerald is elected governor.
If Democrats were to somehow beat the GOP gerrymander, they would have to basically sweep the suburban Cleveland and Columbus seats where Mitt Romney generally won by between zero and five percentage points. Stronger candidate recruitment is badly needed in many of these seats. Democrats also need to put forth a stronger effort in the Wood County-based 3rd district, where President Obama actually won by almost five percentage points.