With Corbett's approval rating in the toilet and a narrow Republican hold on both chambers of the legislature, there is a chance that the Democrats will hold the trifecta after the 2014 elections. I will not handicap this possibility, but I will say that there is a chance. The Pennsylvania Constitution does not prohibit mid-decade Congressional redistricting. And as others have mentioned, Pennsylvania does not have the type of political culture that will punish a party for ugly redistricting. The Republicans drew a very effective gerrymander, and the results gave them a lopsided 13 seats to the Democrat's 5. To keep the Philadelphia suburban districts safe, the GOP had to draw portions of the very conservative (and decidedly outside the metropolitan area) Lebanon and Lancaster counties into Gerlach's 6th and Meehan's 7th. So while the maps I have drawn for this Democratic gerrymander are not pretty, the Republicans have already drawn ugly maps with no repercussions whatsoever.
My obvious goal was to maximize the number of districts that would elect a Democrat, but where possible also to make the district strong enough that a liberal incumbent would survive a wave year. I have drawn 12 districts that would elect a non-blue dog Democrat, and 1 district that would elect former Congressman Tim Holden or another moderate Democrat.
1st District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 79%-21% D+26
New District, 2008 Performance: 63%-36% D+10
The current Republican gerrymander takes up liberal areas of Philadelphia and Delaware counties. To unpack the district, I took in conservative parts of southern Delaware, Chester, Lancaster, and York counties. The first keeps liberal Swarthmore and Media in central Delaware County, because the Black-majority 2nd definitely does not need them. There will be not be many swing voters in this district. Joe Pitts and Bob Brady both live in this district. Hah.
2nd District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 91%-9% D+37
New District, 2008 Performance: 76%-23% D+23
Chakah Fattah loses a lot of Black areas in Philadelphia and all of the most liberal parts of Montgomery County. But he inherits Chester in Delaware County that keeps his district Black majority (50.2%). The district veers northwest to pick up conservative suburbs where Obama did OK in 2008, but crashed in 2012. I believe Jim Gerlach lives in this new district.
It looks like a whale chasing plankton.
3rd District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 46%-52% R+7
New District, 2008 Performance: 57%-41% D+5
Tea party congressman Mike Kelly becomes unelectable in this Aliquippa-Erie-State College district. The 3rd district loses right-wing Clarion and Butler counties, and interior Mercer and Crawford counties. It gains Democrats near the Ohio border in Lawrence and Beaver counties right up to the Allegheny County border. On the way to liberal State College, the district takes in Elk County, which surprised everyone by voting for Obama in 2008. I'm pretty sure Obama held up in Erie and Center counties in 2012, but crashed everywhere else. Still, this district has way too much downballot Democratic strength for a Republican to win.
4th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 45%-54% R+8
New District, 2008 Performance: 39%-60% R+14
And here is the first Republican vote sink. It makes a nearly closed circle around Harrisburg, and avoids downtown York and Lancaster. This district is basically tracts of right-wing suburbs and fertile farming territory. Incumbent freshman Republican Scott Perry's district has not changed too much.
5th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 42%-57% R+11
New District, 2008 Performance: 39%-60% R+14
This is the second Republican vote sink now represented by very low-key Glenn Thompson. He barely beat out a bunch of nutjobs to win the Republican primary in 2008.
As the former chairman of the Centre County Republicans, Thompson might get a strong primary challenge now that Centre is only a small influence in the district.
6th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 48%-51% R+5
New District, 2008 Performance: 60%-39% D+7
This is the successor to Gerlach's district and it's completely unwinnable for him. Say goodbye to Paul Ryan's mentor in the House. The liberal and multiracial parts of Philadelphia and Montgomery counties with typically good turnout overwhelm hostile parts of Berks, Lancaster, Lebanon, and Lehigh counties. Funny that this district includes Lebanon County in either a Republican or a Democratic gerrymander. I believe that D+5 or D+6 is the limit for competitiveness for Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs, thus this district will be safe even in a wave year. I assume a Montgomery County Democrat would win the primary.
7th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 49%-50% R+4
New District, 2008 Performance: 61%-39% D+7
Another unwinnable district for a suburban Republican - this time it's Pat Meehan's. It starts in heavily Democratic eastern Delaware County and then follows Democrats up I-422 and then taking in conservative, rural areas in Chester and Lancaster counties. Again just like in the Republican gerrymander, this district includes northern Lancaster county. That's small consolation for Pat Meehan, a former Santorum campaign manager. Former Congressman Joe Sestak does not live here, but a little intra-county carpetbagging would be greeted with a collective yawn from voters.
8th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 49%-49% R+4
New District, 2008 Performance: 61%-38% D+8
Mike Fitzpatrick, who apparently is in his second-to-last term due to self-enforced term limits, is given an impossible district. This district has liberal parts of Center City and lower Bucks. As it moves north it grabs Republican parts of Northampton, Lehigh and Berks counties. It's unorthodox to combine the Philly suburbs with the Lehigh Valley. Fitzpatrick might try the slightly more Republican 15th district, but I bet he would just retire. Pat Murphy would probably make his comeback here, or he could run just as easily choose the new 13th.
9th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 36%-63% R+17
New District, 2008 Performance: 38%-61% R+15
This is Bill Shuster's district and Republican vote sink #3. Shuster is another quiet Pennsylvania Republican in areally right-wing district. The district actually gets more Democratic as it takes in Greene, Washington, Beaver, and Lawrence counties.
10th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 38%-60% R+15
New District, 2008 Performance: 39%-60% R+14
This district turned out very similar to the 10th district that exists in reality. I am a little surprised that Republicans did not try to give some of this right-wing territory to the 17th district (currently held by Matt Cartwright) to make an even more lopsided 14-4 delegation. I suspect that incumbent Tom Marino prevailed upon Republican legislators to keep his district an easy win for him.
11th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 45%-54% R+8
New District, 2008 Performance: 58%-41% D+5
This district changes dramatically to include Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazelton (home of odious incumbent Lou Barletta), and Monroe County with a few more odd and ends to meet population requirements. I imagine Matt Cartwright would run in this district. This district is actually drawn 2 points more Democratic than Cartwright's current district. Notice that this district drops Schuylkill county to keep former Congressman Tim Holden away. Stay away, Tim.
12th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 41%-58% R+12
New District, 2008 Performance: 57%-42% D+4
Freshman incumbent Keith Rothfus only beat Democrat Mark Critz by 4% in an R+12 district. Because of declining Democratic strength in the coal regions of southwestern Pennsylvania, I combined them with a part of Pittsburgh to make a safe district. Relying entirely on southwestern Pennsylvania conservadems to make a district will not create anything better than a tossup district. This district will elect a liberal Democrat.
13th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 66%-33% D+13
New District, 2008 Performance: 60%-39% D+7
Allyson Schwartz's district needs to be unpacked and so Democratic strength drops to take in conservative parts of Bucks County. There are many ambitious labor Democrats in the state legislature from northeast Philadelphia that would love this disrict.
14th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 68%-31% D+15
New District, 2008 Performance: 60%-39% D+7
Mike Doyle's district gets unpacked to help out the 12th district. It adds nearby small towns to make population. There is not too much to complain about with Mike Doyle, but his successor should be a more vocal leader on economic issues in this populist district.
15th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 48%-51% R+5
New District, 2008 Performance: 59%-40% D+6
I believe that D+6 along with new territory in lower Bucks county makes this unwinnable for pesky incumbent Republican Charlie Dent. Easton and Allentown have bad turnout, but the addition of Stroudsburg and lower Bucks provides a more solid Democratic base. This district has a notably high (for Pennsylvania) Hispanic population at 15%.
16th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 46%-52% R+6
New District, 2008 Performance: 58%-41% D+5
This is my favorite district because it finally creates a Democratic district in the middle of "Pennsyltucky"...plus a few liberal Philadelphia suburbs. At first I thought Harrisburg-York-Lancaster could make a Democratic district, but to make population you need to add suburbs that would make the district a perfect tossup. While D+5 is right at the edge of competitiveness for a Republican, every part of this district will move left thanks to non-white growth. In 2012 Democrats finally elected a state senator in Harrisburg and suburbs, demonstrating that the at-times fractious urban-suburban coalition can hold together.
Nominal incumbent Joe Pitts was already on shaky ground in his much more conservative district. He would not have a prayer in this one.
17th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 55%-43% D+3
New District, 2008 Performance: 52%-47% R+1
Here it is, the Holdenmander! Tim Holden took the Republican bait and ran in the Scranton-based 11th (yes, and it also has his home of Schuylkill county) only to lose soundly to Matt Cartwright...from Scranton. The Lackawanna County Democrats are a force, and I'm not sure why Holden thought he could beat them. Holden should have heeded the warning sign in 2010 when his nobody primary challenger took a respectable 32% of the vote. Holden could have been a mensch and challenged Dent in the 15th and had the primary to himself.
I drew this district with Holden in mind, and it's much more Democratic than his old district. But honestly, I could just as easily do without him. You can make this district EVEN or D+1 by dropping western Schuylkill county and taking some Democrats out of the 11th district.
Reading in Berks County is the only reason this district is winnable for a mainstream Democrat. The 17th is the rust-beltiest part of Pennsylvania, including downtrodden Shamokin and Pottsville. Did I mention that Reading is the poorest city in America? That's why it's inappropriate to have a fiscal conservative like Tim Holden as the district's representative.
18th District
Current District, 2008 Performance: 41%-58% R+12
New District, 2008 Performance: 38%-61% R+15
Republican incumbent Tim Murphy inherits Butler county and thus the district moves even further right. The district also includes most of Westmoreland county, which has just been devastating for Democrats recently. Murphy should expect a primary challenger from the Pittsburgh suburbs since he is seen as "pro-labor."
Let me know what you think in the comments.