I swear that sometimes I wonder if Club for Growth isn't a secretly Democratic organization run by James Carville on the down low. As the Hill reports, the Club for Growth is targeting nine Republican congresspeople for not being conservative enough for them. At least four of those districts could be won by Democrats if the Republican incumbant loses a primary. I'll briefly look at the districts that are part of this effort.
AL-02: Martha Roby. This is an R+18 district and Romney won 63% of the vote here(McCain also won 63% here in 2008). This southeastern Alabama district was Bobby Bright's district from 2009-2011 and Bright only narrowly lost in 2010(Robey won it 51.1% to 48.9%). This would be a tough district for the Democrats to win, but Bright could make things interesting.
AR-01: Rick Crawford. This is an R+7 district and Romney won 61% of the vote in this northeastern Arkansas district. This district has been tilting more Republican in recent years as McCain got 58% in 2008. It is a very agricultural district so the GOP refusal to do a real Farm Bill could hurt the GOP here, and it does have some manufacturing there too. Arkansas State Rep. Marshall Wright, a Democrat is considering a run in this district. I imagine the DCCC will be watching this race if Crawford gets a Tea Party challenger.
ID-02: Mike Simpson. This is an R+17 district, and Romney won 64% in this eastern and southern Idaho district. This district includes most of the capitol Boise and is a district that has strong Mormon influence. McCain won 61% of the vote in 2008. Simpson has been in this seat since 1999(the Democrat who had this seat until 1993 ran again Simpson and lost). Obviously this district should be contested but I am not sure a Democrat has much of a chance there.
IL-16: Adam Kinzinger. It's an R+4 district and Romney won 53% of the vote of this district that includes some exurbs of Chicago and it forms a ring that goes from the Indiana border to the Wisconsin border. I am sure the DCCC would love to take a shot at an open seat here, and perhaps Debbie Halvorson might take a look at running in this district since it does include part of Will County. This district should be targeted with the most electable Democrat possible and in Club for Growth manages to make this an open seat with an extreme candidate, then I like our chances.
IL-18: Aaron Schock. This is an R+10 district, and Romney got 61% of the vote in this Peoria and Springfield district. Schock is looking at running for governor in Illinois and I suppose this could make him jump into that. Schock's own ethics issues(like improper use of campaign funds) would make him vulnerable anyway. Obviously this seat should be contested by a fairly strong Democrat.
IN-08: Larry Bucshon. This is an R+8 district, and Romney won 58% of this Southwestern Indiana district often called "The Bloody 8th". For reference, Donnelly won this district with 50%. In 2012, Bucshon only won reelection with 53% of the vote to Dave Crooks winning 43%. The DCCC is likely going to watch this district too, and I have written on Bucshon's anti-choice views as I did a IN-08 diarybefore the 2012 election
MS-04: Steve Palazzo. Apparently you always have to be a dick about hurricane relief for some in this R+20 district that Romney won 68% of the vote in this southeastern Mississippi district that include cities that were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. This also was Gene Taylor's seat. I really hope the GOP does do attack ads on Palazzo for voting for a hurricane relief bill. Please proceed Republicans so we can give something to do show to voters in New Jersey and New York so they can see that the GOP is for dickish on hurricane relief(and maybe rid NJ of a few GOP congresspeople).
NC-02: Renee Ellmers. This is an R+11 district where Romney won 57% of the vote. Ellmers was elected in the Tea Party wave where she very narrowly beat a Democratic incumbant named Bob Etheridge. If Club for Growth gets a primary opponent to Ellmers, perhaps Etheridge can work with the inevitable souring on the Tea Party. If nothing else, this needs to be contested by a Democrat.
OK-03: Frank Lucas. It's blood-red Oklahoma where Romney won every county. This is a R+24 and 74% Romney district that has the Oklahoma panhandle and other counties in Western and Northern Oklahoma. A Democrat hasn't represented this district since 1997, and I doubt any Democrat will in the near future.
From the looks of things, the Illinois 16th is the most winnable district for Democrats and I believe that the Arkansas 1st and the Indiana 8th could be won if the GOP unseats the incumbant in a primary and there is a strong Democratic challenger. The North Carolina 2nd would need a Democratic wave but strong voter registration efforts and strong turnout efforts could really help. The Illinois 18th should be contested but I am not expecting much. The Alabama 2nd could be interesting if Bright wants to try again.