Of course everyone is looking at Lugar/Mourdock, which I will cover, but there are other races to watch on election night in Indiana.
U.S. Senate: GOP Primary: Senator Richard Lugar v. Richard Mourdock
Who is ahead? The latest Howey Poll shows it 48-38 Mourdock. Where I live in Southern Indiana, there are many more Mourdock signs than Lugar signs, but that isn't saying much. I can see that most of the Mourdock signs that I see in yards are Tea Party members. While we can look at the macro of this, I will look at the micro with my dirty dozen counties to watch on Election Night. Could this look like a Santorum/Romney type map in other Midwestern states? But here is the most troubling thing for Lugar, if as Chuck Todd says that "demographics are destiny", then the Howey Poll showing 53% of the primary electorate describing themselves evangelicals, then Lugar should be very worried. Plus, another internal devastating to Lugar- he is losing his edge in the Indianapolis area.
Here are 12 important counties to watch:
1. Marion- The largest county in the state. About one in every seven Hoosiers live here. Lugar was mayor here before he went to the Senate. In fact, he merged the city and the county (other than four cities), to make this a GOP stronghold. This began to erode with the Frank O'Bannon win in the 1996 Governor's election, and came full circle with the massive Obama win in 2008. Still, there are more Republicans in this county than any other. Lugar will need a strong margin from Marion County if he is to win.
2. Hamilton County- This is where the Republicans leaving Marion County have went. It has been the fastest growing county in Indiana for several decades running. Lugar has key endorsements here and local elections will help to drive up turnout here. This is another county where Lugar needs to run up there score.
3. Allen County- This could be a swing county in the race. This has traditionally been a bastion of establishment Republicans, but the 2007 Ft. Wayne Mayoral Primary put that notion on its head. It also nominated very conservative Matt Kelty, whose campaign finance problems cost Republicans the office. This is also a strongly Republican county where local races can drive up turnout.
4. Lake County- Yes, this is a strongly Democratic county, voting often 60-70% Democratic, but that does leave 30-40% that do not vote that way. Most of the Republicans here are in the southern half of the county. They are strongly anti-tax in their attitudes, but Evansville native Mourdock may not play well up here, given there is some union sympathies even among the GOP. Also, no one is buying Chicago media time, so direct mail becomes important. Lake is in the Central Time Zone, and often the last votes in the state to be reported are from this county. Advantage Lugar here. If Lugar does well here, he will probably also do well in Porter, LaPorte, and St. Joseph Counties as well.
5. Elkhart County- This is a very conservative county where conservative candidates tend to do well. Mitch Daniels even lost to a conservative opponent in the 2004 primary. It is also a heavily Republican county where there will be a high turnout because of local races. Mourdock will need a strong margin here.
6. Hendricks County- This county sits to the west of Indianapolis. It should be a more Lugar friendly county. It has elected more establishment types to office. Lugar needs to do well here.
7. Johnson County- If there is going to be one of the big three Indy suburban counties that Mourdock should do well, it is here. Johnson County has been split between two Senate districts and it has helped to dump Senate Finance Chair Larry Borst and Senate President Bob Garton. Watch this county- if Lugar wins, it is a good sign for him
8. Tippecanoe County- Imagine a county that voted for Obama in 2008 by a six point margin, yet all county officials are Republican, and nearly all city officials are as well. That is Tippecanoe County, which is home to Purdue University. The Republicans here are the ones Lugar needs.
9. Vanderburgh County- This should be Mourdock Country- he was a County Commissioner here. However, there may be some cross-currents. There is a strong labor presence here even within the GOP. Both Republican State Senators voted against right to work, yet all but one State Rep. voted yes.
10. Noble County- This is a relatively small county in northeastern Indiana, but it is noteworthy because it also has a similar race for the State Senate between an establishment and insurgent choice. St. Rep. David Yarde is challenging St. Sen. Sue Glick. Will the races parallel? Also, this is a conservative area Mourdock needs to win. This county may also be indicative of how the strongly GOP counties in northeastern Indiana will vote as well.
11. Howard County- Kokomo is a large Chrysler city. Mourdock tried to end the auto bailout, which would have destroyed Kokomo. They remembered in 2010? No, they voted for Mourdock for re-election for Treasurer. How will these industrial counties in this area vote? I am thinking places like Marion, Logansport, New Castle, Richmond, and Peru. Answer that and answer the election.
12. Clark County- As recently as twenty years ago, Clark County was so Democratic that state leaders urged the county not to even run any local candidates as to keep down turnout. However, Republicans won some County Council races in 2004 (which they lost in 2008), and performed very well in 2010 and 2011 (part of this is the ineffective and divided county party). There is a strong Tea Party driving Republican politics here, which should help Mourdock.
U.S. House
District 2 Republican/Democrats- There is not much to see here. It will be Brenden Mullen facing former St. Rep. Jackie Walorski, who some refer to as "Wacky Jackie".
District 5 Republican- This is probably a three way race. Former Rep. David McIntosh had the edge early on but residency questions have dogged him. The beneficiary seems to be former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks. There is also Marion Mayor Wayne Seybold, who is backed by Rep. Dan Burton and other members of the legislature. Also in the mix is former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, who has ran here twice before. Whoever wins will face St. Rep. Scott Reske, who was gerrymandered out of his current seat. This district only backed McCain 53-46, so a weakened McIntosh may be our best option. TOSSUP
District 6 Republican- Everyone seems to give former St. Rep. Luke Messer a strong edge. There are many reasons to do so, given his 2010 run in the 5th district, endorsements and money, but I remember Travis Hankins' surprise showing in the 2010 9th district primary. Hankins focused on several rural counties and dominated them. Many of those counties are now in the 6th district. I would not be surprised if Hankins pulls it off, but Messer is a favorite. LEANS MESSER
District 8 Republican- I mentioned this race about a month ago, and now it seems that my speculation is now coming to pass. Kristi Risk, a Tea Party activitist, who narrowly lost in 2010 is back with a one-on-one with Rep. Larry Buschon, who is one of the less impressive freshmen members. The 8th district should be one of the strongest districts for Richard Mourdock, so logic could hold that the GOP voters could vote for the next Tea Party backed candidate on the ballot. Republicans are worried. This is a winnable seat in November with former Rep. Dave Crooks. TOSSUP
District 9 Democrats- This is a three way race between Retired Gen. Jonathan George, former Lee Hamilton aide Robert Winningham, and former Miss Indiana Shelli Yoder. There are some surprises here. With his strong background, George should have been the clear frontrunner, but he has ran an awful campaign. Winningham is counting on several endorsements and his strong campaign. Yoder, who entered the race late, has benefitted from her strong personal skills and several key endorsements like former 9th district chair Mike Jones. Turnout is going to be important, as none of them have went on television. Four counties- Clark, Floyd, Harrison, and Monroe will decide this race. TOSSUP
State Senate- Democrats are a pathetic minority here. The real race is for control of the GOP caucus between the establishment and the far right.
District 13 Republican- Here is something you don't see every day: a St. Rep. challenging a St. Sen. of his own party. Rep. David Yarde is challenging Sen. Sue Glick in this seat taking in Noble, LaGrange, Steuben and part of DeKalb counties. This is part of a larger struggle by some within the GOP Senate caucus to have the far right seize control of the body. Mourdock should run very well here. TOSSUP
District 28 Republican- Sen. Beverly Gard retired after the far right targeted her with former UFC Fighter Chris Lytle. Also in the race are attorney John Merlau and former DNR officer Mike Crider. The core of this district is Hancock County. Though all are conservative, Lytle would be most likely to join the far right in the Senate. This is a gerrymandered seat that takes in parts of Indianapolis, Hancock County, and northern Shelby County. Lytle has been running the longest and also has ties to Indianapolis, where he is also a firefighter. LEANS LYTLE
District 37 Republican- Sen. Richard Bray is retiring after a long time in the Senate and Morgan County politics, and his son Rodric is trying to succeed him. However, he must first get past Morgan County Councilman Ryan Goodwin. Both are conservative, but Bray may be more establishment than Goodwin. The Bray name here should count for a lot. Bray's father did vote no on right to work. This race is the election in this seat that takes in all of Morgan County, Western Johnson County, Southern Putnam County and Northern Owen County. LEANS BRAY
State House- Democrats may look a lot worse in 2012. Redistricting and retirements will take their toll. Democrats could have as few as 27 seats. The real goal is simply to hold losses at a minimum and keep the GOP from getting 67 seats.
District 34 Democrats- Dennis Tyler won election to the Mayor's office in Muncie and a placeholder was given the remainder of his term. The main candidates here are former St. Sen. Sue Errington, who lost in 2010 and labor activist David Walker. TOSSUP
District 64 Republicans- This is a new seat centered on Gibson County. Since this new seat leans to the GOP, this may be the election. The interesting thing here is that labor has endorsed in the GOP primary for James Amick over Thomas Washburne, who worked for former Rep. John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel. Washburne appears closer to the Tea Party that Amick, though both are very conservative. TOSSUP
District 69 Democrats- St. Rep. Dave Cheatham decided to retire. This seat is mostly a Jackson/Jennings seat. And the candidates reflect that. The Seymour candidate is former Seymour High School Principal Jim McCormick who is facing union electrician Trent Wisner from Jennings County. McCormick is the favorite of Democratic leaders, while Wisner has union support. Either one faces a tough race in the fall against Seymour Councilman Jim Lucas. TOSSUP
District 70 Democrats- St. Rep. Rhonda Rhoads ousted longtime Democratic member Paul Robertson in 2010. Two Democrats want to take her on- former Harrison County Commissioner Terry Miller and Teamsters Business Agent Jim Kincaid. Miller definitely has the name advantage from his long time in Harrison County, but Kincaid has worked very hard. Turnout appears low in this Harrison-Floyd-Clark seat, but who does that benefit? LEANS MILLER
District 85 Republicans- St. Rep. Phyllis Pond is again challenged on the far right by Denny Worman. With the Mourdock race going on, this may help Worman, but Pond is the favorite. LEANS POND