If you've read my diaries before on this, you know the drill. The districts that cross state lines (The “Interstate” Districts) are either black or sky blue. I've done the northeast and midwest and now i will do the west. One final note: Some of the pictures may not fit, so one can just click on them for a better picture.
Montana At Large
Incumbent: Denny Rehberg R-Billings
Racial Statistics: 89.7% White
Comments: None
Interstate Montana-Wyoming
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin R-Casper
Racial Statistics: 90.5% White
Comments: None
Interstate Colorado-Wyoming
Incumbent: Bob Shaffer R-Fort Collins
Racial Statistics: 79.2% White
Comments: No major changes here except that it goes into Wyoming to get to 645K. The narrative would probably be the same here with Musgrave finally getting the boot in 08 and with Markey to have the misfortune for being a freshman in the worst possible year.
District 1
Incumbent: Diana DeGette D-Denver
Racial Statistics: 55% White
Comments: None
District 2
Incumbent: Mark Udall D-Boulder
Racial Statistics: 83.9% White
Comments: It has to expand into NW Colorado but it would probably still be a lean dem seat
District 3
Incumbent: Tom Tancredo R-Littleton
Racial Statistics: 87% White
Comments: None
District 4
Incumbent: Joel Hefley R-Colorado Springs
Racial Statistics: 78.1% White
Comments: Anyone know why Hefley disliked Lamborn? Hefley himself had a lifetime ACU rating of 95 so I don’t see why he threatened to come out of retirement and run as a write-in.
District 5
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 66.2% White
Comments: I have no idea how this district elected a republican. Beauprez wasn’t exactly a Sherwood Boehlert either.
Interstate Colorado-Utah
Racial Statistics: 75.8% White
Incumbent: Scott McInnis R-Grand Junction
Comments: I think I barely included his home in here LOL. Anyways, I think that when McInnis retired in 04 this would have stayed republican as it takes in some of the most conspiracy theory laden areas of southern Utah.
District 1
Incumbent: James Hansen R-Farmington
Racial Statistics: 82.4% White
Comments: Hansen retired in 02 and this would be safe for the next congressman who in this case would be Rod Bishop
District 2
Incumbent: Jim Matheson D-Salt Lake City
Racial Statistics: 85.6% White
Comments: No chance he would have lost under this map
District 3
Incumbent: Chris Cannon R-Mapleton
Racial Statistics: 86.7% White
Comments: None
Utah-Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Simpson R-Blackfoot
Racial Statistics: 87.2% White
Comments: None
Idaho At-Large
Incumbent: Butch Otter R-Star
Racial Statistics: 87.9% White
Comments: See CO 4
Idaho-Washington
Incumbent: George Nethercutt R-Spokane
Racial Statistics: 90.5% White
Comments: None
District 1
Incumbent: Jay Inslee D-Bainbridge Island
Racial Statistics: 81.6% White
Comments: None
District 2
Incumbent: Rick Larsen D-Arlington
Racial Statistics: 85.8% White
Comments: None
District 3
Incumbent: Brian Baird D-Olympia
Racial Statistics: 85.8% White
Comments: Had he run for re-election in 2010, he likely would have lost here as it goes eastward to take in parts of Yakima and loses the dem areas of Clark County
District 4
Incumbent: Doc Hastings R-Pasco
Racial Statistics: 68% White
Comments: Anyone know how a district that is 68% white is republican? Especially in a state where democrats usually win the white vote.
District 5
Incumbent: Adam Smith D-Kent
Racial Statistics: 71.7% White
Comments: None
District 6
Incumbent: Norm Dicks D-Bremerton
Racial Statistics: 77.6% White
Comments: None
District 7
Incumbent: Jim McDermott D-Seattle
Racial Statistics: 67.6% White
Comments: None
District 8
Incumbent: Jennifer Dunn R-Bellevue
Racial Statistics: 82.6% White
Comments: Republicans here were lucky Dunn retired in 04. Dunn had a lifetime ACU rating of 90 and likely would have gotten the boot here in 06 had she stayed put.
Washington-Oregon
Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer D-Portland
Racial Statistics: 76.9% White
Comments: None
Oregon
District 1
Incumbent: David Wu D-Portland
Racial Statistics: 81% White
Comments: None
District 2
Incumbent: Greg Walden R-Hood River
Racial Statistics: 85.7% White
Comments: IMO, Walden is one of the few republican congressmen to the left of their constituents.
District 3
Incumbent: Darlene Hooley D-West Linn
Racial Statistics: 84.1% White
Comments: None
District 4
Incumbent: Peter DeFazio D-Springfield
Racial Statistics: 85% White
Comments: He was already safe in the actual 4th but this would likely be a nuclear blast proof seat since most of the population is in college towns who share DeFazio’s progressive views.
Interstate Oregon-California
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 85.9% White
Comments: This would be a new seat and even with Mendocino County, it would be a marginal seat as it takes GOP areas in SW Oregon. My guess is Frank Riggs would try for a run here and be a freshman for the third time.
District 1
Incumbent: Mike Thompson D-St Helena
Racial Statistics: 62.5% White
Comments: My guess is Thompson would run here as it would probably be safer than the actual 1st
District 2
Incumbent: Wally Herger R-Marysville
Racial Statistics: 82.5% White
Comments: None
District 3
Incumbent: Doug Ose R-Sacramento
Racial Statistics: 69% White
Comments: Anyone know why he retired after three terms, especially since he ran for congress in 08? If he stayed put, he might be a committee chairman by now and since he was a mainstream Republican, he would have an easier time holding it compared to Lungren
District 4
Incumbent: John Doolittle R-Rocklin
Racial Statistics: 83.2% White
Comments: Is is true that Placer County is plurality mormon? I think I heard that somewhere.
District 5
Incumbent: Bob Matsui D-Sacramento
Racial Statistics: 43.9% White, 20.6% Hispanic
Comments: I’m willing to guess that this district hasn’t voted republican for president since 1928. Obviously safe D for both him and his wife.
District 6
Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey D-Petaluma
Racial Statistics: 75.8% White
Comments: None
District 7
Incumbent: George Miller D-Martinez
Racial Statistics: 47% White, 18.2% Hispanic
Comments: None
District 8
Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi D-San Francisco
Racial Statistics: 43% White, 29.4% Asian
Comments: None
District 9
Incumbent: Barbara Lee D-Oakland
Racial Statistics: 35.1% White, 25.7% Black
Comments: Is this the most left wing district in the country?
District 10
Incumbent: Ellen Tauscher D-Alamo
Racial Statistics: 67.7% White
Comments: This district probably only narrowly voted for Gore in 2000. It probably would have become more democrat as the decade progressed so that when she retired in 09, the district would have been safe. I’m guessing McNerney would have ran here when she retired.
District 11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo R-Tracy
Racial Statistics: 46.9% White, 31.4% Hispanic
Comments: Pombo likely would have lost in 2006 under this map although he wouldn’t have lost to McNerney as he would be in CD 10.
District 12
Incumbent: Tom Lantos D-San Mateo
Racial Statistics: 48.4% White, 29.1% Asian
Comments: None
District 13
Incumbent: Pete Stark D-Fremont
Racial Statistics: 38.8% White, 29% Asian
Comments: Does he strike you as an alcy?
District
Incumbent: Anna Eshoo D-Atherton
Racial Statistics: 54.2% White
Comments: None
District 15
Incumbent: Mike Honda D-San Jose
Racial Statistics: 60.3% White
Comments: Tom Campbell held this district for a few terms in the 90s but he was likely the only Republican who could hold this seat. This seat would probably have a D+10 PVI and Honda would likely be safe.
District 16
Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren D-San Jose
Racial Statistics: 36.2% Hispanic, 32.9% Asian
Comments: Did anyone here know that Don Edwards (who previously held this seat) is still alive? He’s like nearly a hundred years old.
District 17
Incumbent: Sam Farr D-Carmel
Racial Statistics: 46% White, 43.1% Hispanic
Comments: None
District 18
Incumbent: Gary Condit D-Ceres vs George Radanovich R-Mariposa
Racial Statistics: 51.1% White
Comments: Anyone here know why there was such dislike of Condit. He obviously didn’t kill the intern so I don’t see what the big deal was. Anyways, I’m guessing the same thing would have happened here with him losing renomination to Denny Cardoza. Radanovich’s residence is in this district but he would probably run elsewhere. This district is more republican than the actual CD 18 and it’s possible Cardoza would have lost here in 02 since he only got 53% that year.
District 19
Incumbent: Cal Dooley D-Visalia
Racial Statistics: 46.7% White, 42.9% Hispanic
Comments: Although Radanovich’s home was put in the 18th, he likely would have ran here since it contained much of the 1990s CD 19 in suburban East Fresno. Dooley’s residence is here but he likely would have ran in CD 20 since it contained the bulk of the 1990s CD 20.
District 20
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 49.3% Hispanic, 33.7% White
Comments: Cal Dooley’s home was put in the 19th, but he likely would run here. I’m guessing it might have gone republican when he retired in 2004 as this district isn’t as dem as the actual CD 20 since it lost the dem areas of Kern County.
District 21
Incumbent: Bill Thomas R-Bakersfield
Racial Statistics: 48.7% White, 38.9% Hispanic
Comments: It probably becomes less republican since it takes in the dem areas of Bakersfield but this would still be a safe republican district since much of the Hispanic population is either too young to vote or hasn’t lived here long enough to vote.
District 22
Incumbent: Lois Capps D-Santa Barbara
Racial Statistics: 64.7% White
Comments: My guess is that Capps would either lose or narrowly win here in 2010 as it takes in the republican parts of SLO County and even takes in some of Kern County.
District 23
Incumbent: Elton Gallegly R-Simi Valley
Racial Statistics: 52.5% White
Comments: This district likely would have booted out Gallegly in 06 (actually he probably would have retired since that’s what he originally planned on doing) and probably would have gone republican again in 2010.
District 24
Incumbent: Brad Sherman D-Sherman Oaks
Racial Statistics: 60.3% White
Comments: None
District 25
Incumbent: Howard McKeon R-Santa Clarita
Racial Statistics: 57.6% White
Comments: This is the only district entirely within Los Angeles County that would probably be republican the entire decade
District 26
Incumbent: Howard Berman D-North Hollywood
Racial Statistics: 60.9% Hispanic
Comments: Is it possible a Mexican would have primaried him under this map? I actually thought about writing D-Tel Aviv as his residence but thought it would get me banned
District 27
Incumbent: Adam Schiff D-Burbank
Racial Statistics: 49.8% White, 25.3% Hispanic
Comments: With the inclusion of GOP areas like LCF or San Marino he might have had a close call at one point under this map but he likely would have remained in congress.
District 28
Incumbent: David Dreier R-San Dimas
Racial Statistics: 51.9% White
Comments: This district would shift further into SB County making it safer for him.
District 29
Incumbent: Henry Waxman D-Los Angeles
Racial Statistics: 68.2% White
Comments: This district is colored firebrick red for better color contrast.
District 30
Incumbent: Xavier Becerra D-Los Angeles
Racial Statistics: 68.1% Hispanic
Comments: Anyone think he will be the next dem speaker of the house?
District 31
Incumbent: Hilda Solis D-El Monte
Racial Statistics: 39.1% Hispanic, 31% Asian
Comments: I might have put her home in the 34th, but she likely would have ran here as it contains most of the 90s CD 31.
District 32
Incumbent: Diane Watson D-Los Angeles
Racial Statistics: 38.6% Hispanic, 28.3% Black
Comments: None
District 33
Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard D-Los Angeles
Racial Statistics: 91% Hispanic
Comments: None
District 34
Incumbent: Grace Napolitano D-Norwalk
Racial Statistics: 74.6% Hispanic
Comments: Does anyone here notice that in the San Gabriel Valley, elevation is often a proxy for income?
District 35
Incumbent: Maxine Waters D-Los Angeles
Racial Statistics: 49.8% Hispanic, 37.1% Black
Comments: Anyone here know why there is a large black population in LA compared to other West Coast cities?
District 36
Incumbent: Jane Harman D-Rolling Hills
Racial Statistics: 51.2% White
Comments: With the inclusion of the Palos Verdes Peninsula, this district would become more marginal, but I think Harman would be OK in this district. It’s likely that Huey could have won this in 2011 though.
District 37 (Bronze)
Incumbent: Juanita Millender-McDonald D-Carson
Racial Statistics: 55.5% Hispanic
Comments: This district is colored bronze for better color contrast to the 33rd
District 38
Incumbent: Steve Horn R-Long Beach
Racial Statistics: 40.9% White, 32.1% Hispanic
Comments: My guess is that Steve Horn wouldn’t have retired under this map. He probably could hold this district as he was the least conservative of the CA GOP delegation. It might have gone democrat when he retired (or died in office). Someone like Sanchez couldn’t have won this though as she would be too far to the left.
District 39
Incumbent: Ed Royce R-Fullerton
Racial Statistics: 49% White, 29.4% Hispanic
Comments: None
District 40
Incumbent: Jerry Lewis R-Redlands
Racial Statistics: 61.4% White
Comments: None
District 41
Incumbent: Gary Miller R-Diamond Bar
Racial Statistics: 37.3% Hispanic, 36.4% White
Comments: Although it includes super republican Yorba Linda, it includes some marginal turf in LA County. He might have lost this in 06 or 08, but if so someone like Bob Huff could have won this back in 2010.
District 42
Incumbent: Joe Baca D-Rialto
Racial Statistics: 58.3% Hispanic
Comments: Does anyone know here why George Brown was never primaried? It seems he made the DCCC spend money in this district when it should have been safe.
District 43
Incumbent: Ken Calvert R-Corona
Racial Statistics: 44.9% White, 38.7% Hispanic
Comments: With the loss of Orange County and addition of Moreno Valley; Calvert may very well have lost here in 2008. It may have flipped back to a non-corrupt Republican in 2010 however.
District 44
Incumbent: Mary Bono R-Palm Springs
Racial Statistics: 52.2% White
Comments: None
District 45
Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher R-Huntington Beach
Racial Statistics: 62.5% White
Comments: None
District 46
Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez D-Santa Ana
Racial Statistics: 64.6% Hispanic
Comments: None
District 47
Incumbent: Chris Cox R-Newport Beach
Racial Statistics: 70.3% White
Comments: Cox’s home would be in the 45th district but this is much of the 1990s CD 47 so he would run here. With the addition of more of the Saddleback Valley, this becomes more safely republican.
District 48
Incumbent: Darrell Issa R-Vista
Racial Statistics: 59.5% White
Comments: None
District 49
Incumbent: Susan Davis D-San Diego
Racial Statistics: 63.4% White
Comments: This loses some of inner city San Diego and expands north to take in some area in Duke’s district (although that area is the least republican part of the district). I’m guessing this would be similar to IL 10 being a fiscally moderate socially liberal district. Davis isn’t obnoxious like Filner so she would be fine here.
District 50
Incumbent: Bob Filner D-San Diego
Racial Statistics: 51% Hispanic
Comments: This looks more like the 1990s CA 50
District 51
Incumbent: Duke Cunningham R-San Diego
Racial Statistics: 67.3% White
Comments: This probably becomes more republican with the loss of the southern areas of the district and addition of Poway.
District 52
Incumbent: Duncan Hunter R-Alpine
Racial Statistics: 60.2% White
Comments: Hunter’s militant stands against amnesty might have hurt him in Imperial County, but it only is a fraction of the voters in this district. This would be a safe district for him (and later his son).
CA-NV
Incumbent: Jim Gibbons R-Reno
Racial Statistics: 75.7% White
Comments: None
Nevada
District 1
Incumbent: Shelley Berkley D-Las Vegas
Racial Statistics: 50.5% White
Comments: Berkley had trouble winning re-election in 1998 and 2000 but like the actual NV 1, this district would be more urban and more safely democrat. Still, I think the 98 and 00 results make me cautious of a statewide bid.
District 2
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 68.7% White
Comments: This district would be similar to the actual CD 3 and, like the actual CD 3, would be a marginal district. Suburban sprawl in metro Las Vegas is no different than in the IE or metro Phoenix but this area seems to be much more hospitable to democrats compared to those areas. I would guess the narrative would be the same here with Porter winning the open seat and then losing in 2008 before flipping back in 2010.
Nevada-Arizona
Incumbent: Bob Stump R-Tolleson
Racial Statistics: 77.8% White
Comments: Technically, his residence was put in the 7th but this would contain ninety odd percent of his old district. IIRC, Stump decided to retire because he had the same disease Bob Matsui had. Just when you think you couldn’t find a more reactionary congressman than him, you get someone who is even more reactionary. This district is similar to AZ 2 except is takes in all of La Paz, shifts into Nevada, and loses some of those Indian areas. This area from what I know has a socon edge to it so Franks probably wouldn’t have much trouble winning election here.
Arizona
District 1
Incumbent: Jim Kolbe R-Tucson
Racial Statistics: 73.5% White
Comments: Tucson has always been the more democrat area of the state. This district would have somewhat of a republican lean (perhaps exaggerated due to McCain’s home state), but it isn’t as republican as some of the Phoenix suburbs. As a result this district would probably be similar to the 8th where it would go democrat upon Kolbe’s retirement.
District 2
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 64.8% White
Comments: This district is a mix between lots of highly conservative rural areas balanced out with areas with a high Native American or hippie population that leans to the democrats. I’m guessing the same thing would happen here with Renzi winning it initially and then the district flipped when he retired (and also the fact that he was corrupt). I’m guessing Kirkpatrick would have lost in 2010 here although not by too much since she was an otherwise strong incumbent. I might add that the district takes in some of Queen Creek that the actual 1st didn’t, but it probably wouldn’t have swung the political complexion of the district too much.
District 3
Incumbent: John Shadegg R-Phoenix
Racial Statistics: 79.1% White
Comments: This district is mostly old WASP republicans and where much of the fundraisers are held for the AZ GOP. This district is similar to the actual CD 3 except it takes in the eastern edge of Franks district and loses the southern precincts to CD 5. This would be a likely to safe republican district.
District 4
Incumbent: Ed Pastor D-Phoenix
Racial Statistics: 56.5% Hispanic
Comments: Pastor originally represented a district linking the most dem areas of Phoenix and Tucson. When the dem areas of those areas began to spill into adjoining districts (most notably the Shadegg, Salmon, and Kolbe districts), a new vote sink was created in Maricopa County. Pastor is essentially a less controversial version of Raul Grijalva. Therefore this district would be absolutely safe, just as the actual AZ 4 is/was.
District 5
Incumbent: J.D. Hayworth R-Scottsdale
Racial Statistics: 78.3% White
Comments: Scottsdale is more of a WASP republican town and probably belonged with CD 3 (Scottsdale and Paradise Valley haven’t been in the same district since the 80s) but because of Hayworth’s residence in Scottsdale it had to go somewhere. As a result they glued it to the college town of Tempe and some of the less republican areas of Chandler and Mesa. As a result this district was often a contest as to who could outvote whom. I’m guessing the same would happen here with Hayworth, his abrasiveness and all, losing re-election. Of course in a bad political year for democrats, Mitchell, was DOA.
District 6
Incumbent: Jeff Flake R-Mesa
Racial Statistics: 74.3% White
Comments: Flake’s district lost some of the more marginal turf he represented in his first term to Pastor and Hayworth and would gain the Gilbert area from Hayworth. As a result this district functioned as a Republican vote sink taking in some ultraconservative Mormon areas in the East Valley. Flake isn’t an overly aggressive person and is personally likeable, so this would be a safe district, just as the actual 6th was.
District 7
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 51.7% Hispanic
Comments: This district is basically the southern and western part of the 1990s AZ 2 glued on to the dem areas from Kolbe’s district. Some of this area has never been represented by a republican and would normally be a safe democrat district (though I’d assume Grijalva might have had a close call here in 2010 just as he did in the actual AZ 7).
Arizona-New Mexico
Incumbent: Tom Udall D-Santa Fe
Racial Statistics: 35.5% White 33.3% Hispanic
Comments: This is the most liberal part of the state with a heavily native American population and the whites in these areas tend to vote more democrat then the rest of the state. Therefore a safe dem district.
At-Large District
Incumbent: Heather Wilson R-Albuquerque
Racial Statistics: 47.4% White, 43.4% Hispanic
Comments: This district is a microcosm for the state of NM as a whole in the sense that it is marginally democrat. Wilson wasn’t overly conservative and was noncontroversial. I would assume the narrative would be the same here with Wilson, after a close re-election win in 2006, runs for the senate in 08 with the district then being captured by a democrat.
New Mexico-Texas
Incumbent: Joe Skeen R-Pichacho
Racial Statistics: 47.8% Hispanic 46.9% White
Comments: Skeen, If I Recall had Parkinson’s disease and decided to call it quits in 2002. Steve Pearce then ran in this seat and won. This district contains a small part of El Paso County, TX but is less than 10% of the district. This district has a large Hispanic % but it also has a large white percentage and judging from what I see on DRA, much of this area is racially polarized with whites usually giving republican candidates in the 60s. Part of it has to do with the culture of this area which is more like Oklahoma. This was a safe district with Pearce but I would assume the same to happen here with Pearce giving his seat up in 08 to run for the senate and the district going to a democrat, but with him winning the seat back in 2010. Does anyone here know why he ran for the senate in 08? Not that I’m complaining, but didn’t he know that with Wilson as the nominee, the race would at least be a semi-competitive race as opposed to a slam-dunk with himself?