Now that Newt Gingrich has won South Carolina by a larger margin that expected, we can game out some pathways as to how the nomination battle will proceed. The first pathway is one I'll call "Mitt Romney Wins". This pathway is simple and doesn't require an in depth explanation. Mittens rebounds slightly in Florida, enough to narrowly win and take all 50 of those delegates. That alone should give him enough momentum going forward to ensure the nomination.
The second pathway, in the same vein as the first, doesn't require much explanation. This "Newt Wins" scenario envisions a Florida win for Gingrich, which he then leverages into stronger than expected showings in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Colorado (all states which Mitt is expected to win going away). If Newt can do this, he'll practically have the nomination sewn up before Super Tuesday.
The third pathway, however, requires a bit more. This is the protracted battle. This is one where Newt does do well in Florida, but is unable to compete in the Romney states just after. This pathway will constitute the meat of this diary.
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Delegates So Far
After Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina the delegate count minus RNC super-delegates comes out to Gingrich 27, Romney 18, Paul 10, and Santorum 7. From here on out we'll start with that as the base count and work our way upward during each contest.
Jan. 31: Florida
50 delegates. All delegates are AL (At Large) due to penalization under Rules 10 and 16. AL delegates are awarded WTA (Winner Take All).
Gingrich is expected to win this contest. The current polling picture has him ahead by about 10 points. Nate Silver's model projects that he will win 43.2% to Romney's 30.7% at this time with approximately an 81% chance of winning.
Gingrich 40, Romney 30, Santorum 15, Paul 15
Gingrich +50
Gingrich 77 - Romney 18 - Paul 10 - Santorum 7
Feb. 4: Nevada
13 AL delegates. Delegates are allocated proportionally. No threshold.
12 CD (Congressional District) delegates. Delegates are allocated proportionally.
Romney is expected to win this contest even if Gingrich prevails in Florida on the back of his Mormon faith. Santorum will probably not contest any state after Florida, so from here on out he'll be removed from both the contest results and the delegate counts. I do not expect significant differences between congressional district results, so each district will result in the same 2-1 delegate breakdown where Paul's stable percentage screws him out of CD delegates. The format below is AL/CD, by the way, so each candidate gets +x/x.
Romney 50, Gingrich 35, Paul 15
Romney +7/8, Gingrich +5/4, Paul +1
Gingrich 86 - Romney 33 - Paul 11
Feb. 4-11: Maine
15 AL delegates. These delegates are uncommitted.
6 CD delegates. These delegates are also uncommitted.
Let's assume that these delegates break proportionally for the election results. Romney should do better in the 1st district while Gingrich will probably do better in the 2nd. With this in mind we'll assign the CD delegates as if each candidate won the district they did better in.
Romney 50, Gingrich 35, Paul 15
Romney +8/3, Gingrich +5/3, Paul +2/0
Gingrich 94 - Romney 44 - Paul 13
Feb. 7: Colorado
12 AL delegates. These delegates are selected at the state convention and are unbound. No threshold.
21 CD delegates. These delegates are selected at the district conventions and are also unbound. No threshold.
Colorado is a relatively under the radar contest. There is no polling available here, but Romney's Mormon faith and appeal to the urban elite should put him (way) over the top just like it did in 2008. That got him 22 delegates last time, so we'll just carry that forward here and split the rest of the AL delegates between Paul and Gingrich. The rest of the CD delegates will go to Gingrich.
Romney 60, Gingrich 25, Paul 15
Romney +7/15, Gingrich +3/6, Paul +2/0
Gingrich 103 - Romney 66 - Paul 15
Feb. 7: Minnesota
13 AL delegates. These delegates are selected at the state convention and are unbound unless the convention votes to bind them.
24 CD delegates. These delegates are selected at the district conventions and are also unbound.
PPP hinted that Gingrich was crushing here based on early interviews during the poll currently taking place. The at large delegates aren't bound unless the state convention votes to bind them (in which case it would be winner take all in all but name). Let's assume that, given Minnesota's process, they are bound for Gingrich. For the CD delegates, Gingrich would probably win the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 8th while Romney secures the 4th and 5th.
Gingrich 55, Romney 30, Paul 15
Gingrich +13/18, Romney +0/6
Gingrich 134 - Romney 72 - Paul 15
Feb. 25: Northern Mariana Islands
6 AL delegates. Unbound. I'll assume they'll break unanimously for the winner given the political culture of the territory.
Gingrich 70, Romney 25, Paul 5
Gingrich +6
Gingrich 140 - Romney 72 - Paul 15
Feb. 28: Arizona
29 AL delegates. These delegates are WTA.
Romney is going to crush here, and that victory will be largely determined by his Mormon faith. We all like to talk about how Romney's Mormon faith kills him in the south, but we conveniently forget that his Mormon faith helps him in states like Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, and Iowa (those last two states do have sizable Mormon populations).
Romney 60, Gingrich 25, Paul 15
Romney +29
Gingrich 140 - Romney 101 - Paul 15
Feb. 28: Michigan
30 AL delegates. These delegates are proportional with a 15% threshold.
Romney will win here if only because his father was governor. I'm not expecting a large blowout, actually, because the Michigan primary electorate has been known to select the craziest candidate of the bunch sometimes.
Romney 50, Gingrich 35, Paul 15
Romney +15, Gingrich +11, Paul +4
Gingrich 151 - Romney 116 - Paul 19
March 3: Washington
10 AL delegates. These delegates are elected at a caucus, and I'm assuming that they'll break proportionally.
30 CD delegates. Same as statewide.
I honestly have no idea where to start with this one. McCain won here in 2008, but only narrowly above Huckabee and Paul. Romney came in last. With that in mind, let's assume an original caucus vote of Gingrich 45, Romney 30, and Paul 25. The CD results are quirky, and I'm basing this off of regional 2008 performances: 2 Gingrich to 1 Paul in the 4th and 5th, 2 Gingrich to 1 Romney in the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, and 10th, and 2 Romney to 1 Gingrich in the 3rd, 7th, and 9th.
Gingrich 45, Romney 30, Paul 25
Gingrich +5/15, Romney +3/11, Paul +2/2
Gingrich 171 - Romney 130 - Paul 23
Super Tuesday: Alaska
21 AL delegates. These are awarded proportionally.
3 CD delegates. These are awarded proportionally as well.
Romney 45, Gingrich 35, Paul 20
Romney +9/2, Gingrich +7/1, Paul +4
Gingrich 179, Romney 141, Paul 27
Super Tuesday: Georgia
31 AL delegates. Awarded proportionally with 20% threshold.
42 CD delegates. Awarded proportionally with 20% threshold if no majority. WTA if majority.
I honestly don't expect Romney to win a single district in this state, because the state doesn't contain any resort coastal retirement areas like South Carolina and Florida and because Atlanta's social elite are extremely socially conservative a la Dallas and Houston and unlike Boston, Seattle, and D.C.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +20/42, Romney +11/0
Gingrich 241, Romney 152, Paul 27
Super Tuesday: Idaho
23 AL delegates. 80% of delegates are proportional with a 15% threshold. 20% are unbound.
6 CD delegates. 80% of delegates are proportional with a 15% threshold. 20% are unbound.
Idaho's process is very intricate. I'm assuming that the 20% unbound delegates will all break for Romney because of faith and because of his strong showing in the state.
Romney 65, Gingrich 20, Paul 15
Romney +17/4, Gingrich +4/2, Paul +2/0
Gingrich 247 - Romney 173 - Paul 29
Super Tuesday: Massachusetts
11 AL delegates. These are allocated proportionally with a 15% floor.
27 CD delegates. These are allocated proportionally with a 15% floor.
I don't expect there to be much variation from congressional district to congressional district. I'm using the 2008 performance as a benchmark for Romney, but because he isn't competing against another moderate this time (in the form of McCain) and given that he was the "conservative" alternative to McCain last time, I'm increasing his vote share slightly.
Romney 55, Gingrich 35, Paul 10
Romney +7/18, Gingrich +4/9
Gingrich 260 - Romney 198 - Paul 29
Super Tuesday: North Dakota
22 AL delegates. These are not bound.
3 CD delegates. These are not bound.
I'm assuming that the delegates will break according to the original caucus vote share, and am using the 2008 results as a benchmark performance for Romney (McCain %) and Gingrich (Romney + Huckabee %)
Gingrich 45, Romney 35, Paul 20
Gingrich +10/2, Romney +8/1, Paul +4/0
Gingrich 272 - Romney 207 - Paul 33
Super Tuesday: Ohio
15 AL delegates. WTA if majority is secured, 20% threshold if no majority.
48 CD delegates. WTA per district.
Now here is an interesting state. This is probably where the nomination is won or lost and my money is on Gingrich getting an outright majority. Beyond that, Romney will take the urban 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 11th while Gingrich will take every other district. Even if Gingrich does not secure a majority, he will still have won the lion's share of the congressional districts on the back of religious voters. The math is simply against Romney here. In fact, I think Romney would still win less of Ohio's delegates even if he narrowly edged out Gingrich.
Gingrich 55, Romney 40, Paul 5
Gingrich +15/36, Romney +0/12
Gingrich 323 - Romney 219 - Paul 33
Super Tuesday: Oklahoma
25 AL delegates. These are WTA if a candidate takes a majority. If not, there is a 15% threshold.
15 CD delegates. These are WTA if a candidate takes a majority. If not, there is a 15% threshold.
Southern state where Romney will not do well. Period. Gingrich will romp here and take a majority, which will secure him all of the state's delegates.
Gingrich 60, Romney 35, Paul 5
Gingrich +25/15
Gingrich 363 - Romney 219 - Paul 33
Super Tuesday: Tennessee
28 AL delegates. These are WTA if a candidate reaches 66%. It not, there is a 20% threshold.
27 CD delegates. These are WTA if a candidate reaches 66%. If not, there is a 20% threshold.
Okay, so here is another state where the math gets interesting. Gingrich will win the state, but not with 66%. Romney won't win a single congressional district, but should still hold Gingrich below the 66% WTA threshold in 5th and 9th. In the other 6 districts, Gingrich will kill Romney.
Gingrich 60, Romney 35, Paul 5
Gingrich +18/25, Romney 10/2
Gingrich 406 - Romney 231 - Paul 33
Super Tuesday: Vermont
11 AL delegates. WTA if majority. If not, there is a 20% threshold.
3 CD delegates. WTA.
Romney's own backyard. He should secure a majority of the vote here.
Romney 60, Gingrich 30, Paul 10
Romney +14
Gingrich 406 - Romney 245 - Paul 33
Super Tuesday: Virginia
13 AL delegates. WTA if majority. If not, 15% threshold.
33 CD delegates. WTA.
Boo on Gingrich for not qualifying for the ballot here. There are only two candidates - Romney and Paul - on the ballot, which means that someone will get a majority. That candidate will be Romney and he'll get a majority in every district.
Romney 80, Paul 20
Romney +46
Gingrich 406 - Romney 291 - Paul 33
March 6-10: Wyoming
23 AL delegates. These are unbound. I'll assume that the break along the lines of the original caucus vote.
3 CD delegates. These are also unbound. Same assumption.
Romney 60, Gingrich 25, Paul 15
Romney +14/2, Gingrich +6/1, Paul +3/0
Gingrich 413 - Romney 307 - Paul 36
March 10: Kansas
25 AL delegates. 3 are automatically assigned to the winner, while the rest are proportional with a 20% threshold.
12 CD delegates. WTA.
Huckabee won here easily in 2008. In fact, Romney only got 3% of the vote behind even Paul's 11%. I won't put him that low, but I'm assuming that Gingrich will perform very well. Romney will probably win the 3rd district's vote, while Gingrich will cream him elsewhere.
Gingrich 60, Romney 25, Paul 15
Gingrich +18/9, Romney +7/3
Gingrich 440 - Romney 317 - Paul 36
March 10: U.S. Virgin Islands
6 AL delegates. Delegates are bound if declared support. Delegates voted for at Territorial Committee Meeting with top 6 vote getters being elected.
I'm assuming Romney will do well here as the Party establishment on the Islands is heavily beholden to tourist and resort interests.
Romney +6
Gingrich 440 - Romney 323 - Paul 36
March 10: Guam
6 AL delegates. Elected at Organizational Convention.
Similar to Northern Mariana Islands.
Gingrich +6
Gingrich 446 - Romney 323 - Paul 36
March 13: Alabama
26 AL delegates. WTA if majority. If not, there is a 20% threshold.
21 CD delegates. WTA if majority. If not, there is a 20% threshold.
This is a deep southern state, Gingrich will secure a majority statewide and in every district. If he doesn't then we're in a parallel universe or something.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +26/21
Gingrich 493 - Romney 323 - Paul 36
March 13: Hawaii
11 AL delegates. Allocated proportionally.
6 CD delegates. Allocated proportionally.
Romney will win here. I'm not sure there's much else to say.
Romney 55, Gingrich 40, Paul 5
Romney +6/4, Gingrich +4/2, Paul +1/0
Gingrich 499 - Romney 333 - Paul 37
March 13: Mississippi
25 AL delegates. Proportional with 15% threshold.
12 CD delegates. Proportional with 15% threshold.
This is another deeply southern state. If Gingrich does not win I'll shoot myself in the foot.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +17/8, Romney +8/4
Gingrich 524 - Romney 345 - Paul 37
March 13: American Somoa
6 AL delegates. Unbound.
These, like the other Pacific non-Hawaii delegates, will go for Gingrich.
Gingrich +6
Gingrich 530 - Romney 345 - Paul 37
March 17: Missouri
25 AL delegates. By slate at state convention.
24 CD delegates. By slate at district convention.
Missouri's primary is in February, but that has nothing to do with the delegate selection whatsoever. Gingrich, fortunately, though unable to qualify for the primary, is able to compete for the delegates in the caucuses where he'll be favored. Romney will probably win the two urban districts, while Gingrich will win the others.
Gingrich 55, Romney 40, Paul 5
Gingrich +25/18, Romney +0/6
Gingrich 573 - Romney 351 - Paul 37
March 18: Puerto Rico
20 AL delegates. WTA.
Gingrich should win these as he's considered stronger among Hispanic voters than Romney.
Gingrich 70, Romney 20, Paul 10
Gingrich +20
Gingrich 593 - Romney 351 - Paul 37
March 20: Illinois
12 AL delegates. These are elected at the state convention. I'll assign them as WTA.
54 CD delegates. These are elected by primary preference. I'll assign them proportional per district.
Romney should win statewide, but most of the downstate districts will be taken by Gingrich.
Romney 50, Gingrich 40, Paul 10
Romney +12/36, Gingrich +0/18
Gingrich 611 - Romney 399 - Paul 37
March 24: Louisiana
25 AL delegates. Proportionally allocated with a 25% threshold.
18 CD delegates. Unbound, but likely to be with the candidate that won their district.
Romney is unlikely to win this deep south state, and is even more unlikely to win even a single congressional district.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +17/18, Romney +8
Gingrich 646 - Romney 407 - Paul 37
April 3: Maryland
10 AL delegates. These delegates are WTA.
24 CD delegates. These delegates are WTA.
Maryland is a formerly "southern" state which is now mid-Atlantic. I'd hazard a guess that Gingrich will win only one congressional district here, the eastern shore based 1st, while Romney will smash him statewide and in the other districts.
Romney 60, Gingrich 35, Paul 5
Romney +10/21, Gingrich +0/3
Gingrich 649 - Romney 438 - Paul 37
April 3: Texas
44 AL delegates. These are proportionally allocated with no threshold.
108 CD delegates. These are proportionally allocated with a 20% threshold.
So this is going to take a few minutes to dissect. Gingrich will win statewide, no doubt, but the real meat is in the district delegates. Romney will likely win Lamar Smith's district, Lloyd Doggett's district, and John Culberson's district regardless of how redistricting plays out. He probably won't win them going away though. New Gingrich will probably shut both Romney and Paul beneath the 20% threshold in the three panhandle districts and the 1st, 4th, and 8th. Paul will probably win whatever district emerges that comprises his home base, with Gingrich coming in second there. Paul will also probably come second in Lloyd Doggett's district and in the 17th.
Gingrich 60, Romney 20, Paul 20
Gingrich +26/73, Romney +9/31, Paul +9/4
Gingrich 748 - Romney 478 - Paul 50
April 3: Washington, D.C.
16 AL delegates. These are WTA.
Romney should win here as he's the establishment candidate.
Romney 50, Gingrich 30, Paul 20
Romney +16
Gingrich 748 - Romney 494 - Paul 50
April 3: Wisconsin
15 AL delegates. WTA.
24 CD delegates. WTA.
Despite Gingrich winning neighboring Minnesota, I have a hard time imagining him doing as well here. I'm going to have it be just slightly a Romney state where he wins all but the 5th district.
Romney 45, Gingrich 45, Paul 10
Romney +15/21, Gingrich +0/3
Gingrich 751 - Romney 530 - Paul 50
April 24: Connecticut
10 AL delegates. WTA if majority. If not, then 20% threshold.
15 CD delegates. WTA.
Romney will do extremely well here, perhaps even better than he did in Massachusetts. In every contest so far, Romney has won the highest income groups and, well, the Connecticut Republican Party thrives within that strata of society because of Wall Street execs and hedge fund managers and what-not and the like.
Romney 60, Gingrich 30, Paul 10
Romney +10/15
Gingrich 751 - Romney 555 - Paul 50
April 24: Delaware
11 AL delegates. WTA.
3 CD delegates. WTA.
I know some of you are thinking that this state should go to Gingrich because O'Donnell beat Castle there in 2010. I'm not so sure. I'm going to put it down, again, narrowly as a Romney state. Remember that Romney is being kept alive at this point because super-delegates are likely heavily aligned behind him (making the actual delegate count much closer than I have it). It takes 1,440 to win the nomination. At the moment it is still a race that either man could win.
Romney 50, Gingrich 45, Paul 5
Romney +11/3
Gingrich 751 - Romney 569 - Paul 50
April 24: New York
Currently, New York's allocation depends on whether or not new district lines have been drawn by the end of January 2012. That doesn't seem likely to happen, so I'll go with the allocation process which assumes that it doesn't.
34 AL delegates. WTA if majority. If not, there is a 20% threshold.
58 CD delegates. There are 2 delegates per district (under the old lines), and the winner gets them both.
Mitt Romney is going to win New York, and he's probably going to win every single congressional district therein. This state is going to be a BIG win for him and will probably affect the national dynamic from there on out.
Romney 55, Gingrich 35, Paul 10
Romney +34/58
Gingrich 751 - Romney 661 - Paul 50
April 24: Pennsylvania
15 AL delegates. Delegate allocation is undefined at the moment.
54 CD delegates. Delegate allocation is undefined at the moment.
In 2008 they all went for John McCain, but they were unpledged. I'll assume that the same happens this time and they all go to Romney (who I have winning this state).
Romney 55, Gingrich 35, Paul 10
Romney +15/54
Gingrich 751 - Romney 730 - Paul 50
April 24: Rhode Island
10 AL delegates. 15% proportional threshold.
6 CD delegates. Delegates run directly on ballot. Top three win.
At this point Mitt Romney is essentially back to being tied with Gingrich and perhaps even slightly ahead after factoring in super-delegates.
Romney 60, Gingrich 25, Paul 15
Romney +6/4, Gingrich +3/2, Paul +1/0
Gingrich 756 - Romney 740 - Paul 51
May 8: Indiana
16 AL delegates. The delegates are unbound, but will probably align in unison behind the statewide winner.
27 CD delegates. WTA.
If this state had been held a few weeks earlier, I'd have Gingrich winning it. However, the momentum is now on Romney's side so I have them neck and neck. Romney will probably take the 1st, 5th, and 7th, while Gingrich will take the rest despite narrowly losing the state.
Romney 45, Gingrich 45, Paul 10
Romney +16/9, Gingrich +0/18
Gingrich 774 - Romney 765 - Paul 51
May 8: North Carolina
13 AL delegates. Proportionally bound to statewide vote.
39 CD delegates. Each district is proportionally bound to statewide vote.
Another southern state to save the Gingrich campaign from ruin. This should put back a small bit of distance between him and Romney. The rules here also favor Gingrich, because Romney would have been able to squeeze a few extra delegates out of certain CDs had they been proportional to each district's vote instead of the statewide vote (which is odd, frankly).
Gingrich 55, Romney 35, Paul 10
Gingrich +7/26, Romney +5/13, Paul +1/0
Gingrich 807 - Romney 783 - Paul 52
May 8: West Virginia
19 AL delegates. Delegates are selected on ballot by voters. Delegates are declared as for a candidate or uncommitted.
9 CD delegates. Same.
I'm going to allocate these proportionally, given that that is effectually what the rules do.
Gingrich 70, Romney 25, Paul 5
Gingrich +13/6, Romney +5/3, Paul +1/0
Gingrich 826 - Romney 791 - Paul 53
May 15: Nebraska
23 AL delegates. Basically proportionally allocated to the best of their ability.
9 CD delegates. Basically proportionally allocated to the best of their ability.
Gingrich will win here, just as with Kansas, but perhaps not so overwhelmingly.
Gingrich 55, Romney 35, Paul 10
Gingrich +13/6, Romney +8/3, Paul +2/0
Gingrich 845 - Romney 802 - Paul 55
May 15: Oregon
10 AL delegates. These are proportional.
15 CD delegates. These are proportional.
I'm going to take this one as a tossup between Romney and Gingrich. Gingrich performs well inland and south, while Romney in Portland and along the northern coast. This actually screws Paul out of an AL delegate under my math because the rounding always favors the higher candidates.
Romney 45, Gingrich 45, Paul 10
Romney +5/8, Gingrich +5/7
Gingrich 857 - Romney 815 - Paul 55
May 22: Arkansas
21 AL delegates. Any candidate that gets 15% immediately receives 1 delegate. If a single candidate gets a majority, all other delegates go to that candidate. If no candidate gets a majority, allocate the remaining delegates proportionally with no threshold.
12 CD delegates. WTA if majority, proportionally if not.
Arkansas will be won by Gingrich. All four of its districts will be won by Gingrich.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +20/12, Romney +1/0
Gingrich 889 - Romney 816 - Paul 55
May 22: Kentucky
24 AL delegates. Proportionally allocated with 15% threshold.
18 CD delegates. Proportionally allocated with 15% threshold.
Gingrich 60, Romney 30, Paul 10
Gingrich +16/12, Romney +8/6
Gingrich 917 - Romney 830 - Paul 55
June 5: California
10 AL delegates. WTA.
159 CD delegates. WTA.
Wow. Here is where the fun starts. Romney wins statewide. Gingrich wins the following congressional districts: 1st, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th, 16th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 25th, and 36th. Romney wins everything else. For the first time, Romney has overtaken Gingrich in the non super-delegate count.
Romney 55, Gingrich 35, Paul 10
Romney +10/126, Gingrich +0/33
Romney 966 - Gingrich 950 - Paul 55
June 5: Montana
20 AL delegates. Nonbinding primary.
3 CD delegates. Nonbinding primary.
I'm going to allocate the delegates proportionally.
Gingrich 40, Romney 40, Paul 20
Gingrich +8/2, Romney +8/1, Paul +4
Romney 975 - Gingrich 960 - Paul 59
June 5: New Jersey
11 AL delegates. WTA.
36 CD delegates. WTA per statewide, not district, vote.
This is where Romney puts some distance in between him and Gingrich.
Romney 55, Gingrich 35, Paul 10.
Romney +11/36
Romney 1,022 - Gingrich 960 - Paul 59
June 5: New Mexico
11 AL delegates. Proportionally allocated with 15% threshold.
9 CD delegates. Proportionally allocated with 15% threshold.
Gingrich should narrowly prevail here against Romney. Romney's religious base will turn out in Farmington, but Gingrich's southern-esque voters in and around Alamogordo, Las Cruces, etc will help him win. Romney will take the Santa Fe district.
Gingrich 45, Romney 40, Paul 15
Gingrich +5/5, Romney +4/4, Paul +2/0
Romney 1,030 - Gingrich 970 - Paul 61
June 5: South Dakota
22 AL delegates. Proportional with 20% threshold.
2 CD delegates. Effectively WTA.
Gingrich 45, Romney 35, Paul 20
Gingrich +10/3, Romney +8/0, Paul +4/0
Romney 1,038 - Gingrich 983 - Paul 65
June 26: Utah
25 AL delegates. WTA.
12 CD delegates. WTA per statewide vote.
This is just a feather in Romney's cap as we head into the National Convention. It will create a media narrative that Romney has a final bit of momentum to secure the nomination despite the fact that nobody hit the 1,144 delegates required to secure the nomination.
Romney 70, Gingrich 25, Paul 5
Romney +25/12
Romney 1,075 - Gingrich 983 - Paul 65
Super Delegates
Lets assume for a minute that the super delegates align heavily behind Romney, perhaps 65-25-10 (Romney, Gingrich, Paul). This brings the delegate counts for each candidate up to Romney at 1,174, Gingrich at 1,021, Paul at 84, and Santorum at 7. In other words, Romney will have won the nomination because the super delegates gave it to him. If the delegates are allotted more evenly at 50-40-10, then the numbers are Romney at 1,153, Gingrich at 1,042, Paul at 84, and Santorum at 7. Romney still wins. Let's take it down just a bit more. 45-45-10. The numbers then become Romney at 1,145, Gingrich at 1,053, Paul at 84 and Santorum at 7. In other words, in order for Gingrich to hold Romney to a flat out loss at the convention, he must win an actual majority of the super delegates... and even then he cannot secure the necessary 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination. In fact, there aren't enough super-delegates this year (there are 156) to make up the distance between his 983 and the 1,144 needed (he comes up 5 short). He'd have to do three things in order to win: 1) have unanimous support among the super delegates, 2) have to have Santorum's (and his delegates') backing, and 3) offer the VP slot to Paul. Can you imagine the establishment, who loathes Gingrich, backing him? Moreover, can you imagine a Gingrich-Paul ticket? I can't. But I can imagine a Romney-Paul ticket.
Now, one thing to keep in mind in such a close election is the specific rules tying delegations to the vote choice. Are they bound? Are they unbound? How many rounds of voting? Are there specific voting requirements? If those requirement aren't met are the delegations released? All of these things could make any floor fight for the nomination extremely interesting.