If all you read was the state polling today, or in the past week, for that matter, you could argue that Barack Obama is doing quite well in his bid for reelection, and is well on his way to securing a second term with north of 300 electoral votes.
But, yet again, if you look at the national polling, it paints a dramatically different picture of the state of the race. And, this time, we aren't even talking solely about the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls.
That odd divergence between the two polling universes has reared its ugly head, yet again, quite clearly.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
NATIONAL (Zogby Analytics for the Washington Times): Romney d. Obama (43-42)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
WI-SEN (PPP): Eric Hovde (R) 45, Tammy Baldwin (D) 44; Baldwin 45, Tommy Thompson (D) 45; Baldwin 45, Mark Neumann (R) 41; Baldwin 46, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 42
WI-SEN—R (PPP): Eric Hovde 31, Tommy Thompson 29, Mark Neumann 15, Jeff Fitzgerald 9
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
With the exception of the Ipsos/Reuters poll, the national polling to open the week looks reasonably soft for the president. For the first time since mid-May, a pollster gives Mitt Romney a national lead in a non-tracking poll. Of course, it is the same pollster (JZ Analytics, the "JZ" standing for John Zogby) that gave Romney his last lead, just seven short weeks ago.
But the state polls look pretty damned good for Obama, and it ain't just PPP that's showing that. The last round of Quinnipiac swing state polls looked awfully good for the president in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and even a GOP pollster (We Ask America) gave Obama a four-point edge in Colorado.
Once again, we see two very distinct pictures of the campaign being painted by state polling versus national polls. Even Ras's Florida poll shows a dead heat, and has Obama doing better in the Sunshine State than he does nationally (when compared to Rasmussen's national poll, for what it is worth). PPP has North Carolina exactly where it was four years ago, and has the president running ahead of his 2008 margins in Virginia.
Is this a simple matter of Obama's national numbers being skewed by getting absolutely smooshed in the red states, or is there something more complicated afoot? We'll see if additional polling clarifies what is, for now, a pretty muddy picture.
In other polling news ...
- There are actually two "holy crap" headlines in that PPP poll of the Wisconsin Senate race. For one thing, it is now clear (with multiple polls now available to be cited as evidence) that Eric Hovde has caught Tommy Thompson in the GOP primary. That is, in part, a tribute to big money: Hovde has spent a ton of cash, and that has bought him relevance that has been largely denied to two other Thompson primary opponents (conservatives Mark Neumann and Jeff Fitzgerald). It is also owed, in part, to the fact that Thompson is simply not closing the sale with right-of-center Wisconsin voters. His one big salvation was that it looked, for a while at least, as if the conservative anti-Tommy vote would get split three ways, which would allow Thompson to salvage a win in the primary with a plurality.
- The second eye-popper out of the Badger State is a huge reversal from previous polling in the state. According to the crew at PPP, Eric Hovde is now as electable in a general election as Tommy Thompson, with just a single point separating their respective performances when paired with Democrat Tammy Baldwin. This is a dramatic shift from a Marquette Law School poll from late June, where Baldwin trailed Thompson by nine points, but led Hovde by the same nine-point margin. This movement is almost certainly owed to campaign cash—Hovde's favorables are surprisingly high for a relatively unknown candidate. That might point to a soft rise in numbers, however: One would expect that said favorables could crater when Baldwin's campaign starts to take some shots at him.
- Something to keep an eye on for tomorrow: Greg Sargent wrote up a conversation he had with Geoff Garin today, where he promised that a polling memo to be distributed tomorrow will show that the attacks on Bain Capital are exacting a very real political cost for Mitt Romney. It's worth checking out if/when it drops on Wednesday.