I recently drew maps of Indiana and Virginia which attempted to show what a possible Democratic gerrymander of those states could look like, even though Democrats won't get to draw the map in either state. Now I'm back with another state where Democrats won't draw the lines: Pennsylvania. Republicans picked up the governorship and State House in Pennsylvania and maintained their hold on the State Senate, so now they get to draw a hideous gerrymander minimizing the number of Democratic-held seats. Currently, Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the Pennsylvania delegation, and their map will likely attempt to reduce that even further to 12-6. However, in a perfect world where Democrats controlled Pennsylvania redistricting, it would be possible to draw a 12-6 map...the other way.
More over the fold.
Pennsylvania is a Democratic-leaning state, so one might ask the question, if it can support a 12-6 Republican delegation, shouldn't it be able to support more than a 12-6 Democratic delegation? Unfortunately, however, Pennsylvania is no Illinois. For one thing, the protection of minority voting rights necessitates drawing two seats in Philadelphia packing Democrats. Also, Pennsylvania is a state with a weird political dynamic where the west is trending Republican but local Dems overperform Obama numbers, while the east is trending Democratic but local Dems underperform Obama numbers. Lastly, even with a Republican gerrymander, some of their seats will be shaky, so perhaps it's not totally accurate to say that Pennsylvania can really support a 12-6 GOP delegation.
Anyway, onto the maps. Whole state:
PA-01
Incumbent: Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia), Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill)
Old Vote: Obama 88 McCain 12
New Vote: Obama 74 McCain 25
Description: This district stays plurality black by total population (46-44) but is plurality white by VAP (47-44). Either way, it shouldn't run afoul of the VRA, and the current representative is white anyway. This district starts off in South Philadelphia, runs up to Overbrook to take in Brady's home, and then runs amok in the suburbs grabbing Republican areas left and right. Lots of new territory means Brady might get a primary, but this is a fantasy map and IMO he deserves it (apparently he is collaborating with the Republicans in redistricting) so boo for him. Also, I'm not sure if Pat Meehan lives here or not, but his polling place is in this district so I just put him here, even though he definitely won't run here. Safe D.
PA-02
Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia)
Old Vote: Obama 90 McCain 10
New Vote: Obama 85 McCain 15
Description: This district barely manages to stay majority black (50.2% among 18+, to 32.6% white). It shoots up into Montgomery County both to absorb Republicans and grab more black voters, while grabbing many parts of Philly including Temple University and Fattah's home in East Falls. Safe D.
PA-03
Incumbent: Mike Kelly (R-Butler)
Old Vote: Obama 49 McCain 49 (McCain victory)
New Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
Description: I tried to be like Mike Kelly, but all of his looks were too sad...so I drew him an unwinnable district. Rather than desperately grabbing Republicans to cancel out Erie County like the current 3rd does, this district is gerrymandered to grab some Democrats in Western PA as well as Obama-supporting Elk County. Former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Erie) would be strongly favored if she were to seek a rematch. Democratic pickup #1.
PA-04
Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D-McCandless)
Old Vote: Obama 44 McCain 55
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Description: Conservadem Jason Altmire's home is thrown into this Western PA GOP vote sink. It's very likely that he and Kelly would trade districts, although Altmire is probably at a disadvantage against Dahlkemper in the primary. This is the only Republican "pickup" on the entire map.
PA-05
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (PA-16): Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 55
Description: I'm counting this as the successor to Joe Pitts' PA-16, even though it's a new district created as a GOP vote sink. Jim Gerlach and Joe Pitts probably want to run here, although Charlie Dent, Pat Meehan, and Mike Fitzpatrick could also think about it. Despite McCain "only" getting 55% here it's actually a pretty red district, so the GOP primary winner is likely the general winner, too.
PA-06
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (PA-07): Obama 56 McCain 43
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 38
Description: Running here is a possibility for both Jim Gerlach and Pat Meehan, but it's more Democratic than their old districts and they'd have to deal with some new territory. While a mostly suburban Dem vote sink, this also contains the Philly neighborhood of Roxborough. Dems should be all set here. Democrat pickup #2.
PA-07
Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R-Howard Township), Tom Marino (R-Lycoming Township)
Old Vote: Obama 44 McCain 55 (PA-05), Obama 45 McCain 54 (PA-10)
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 55
Description: Thompson and Marino are pitted in a battle to the death in this GOP vote sink. Have fun, suckers! Shame State College has to be in this district, but them's the breaks when you're an island of blue in a sea of red.
PA-08
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
New Vote: Obama 65 McCain 34
Description: This district doesn't contain Mike Fitzpatrick's home nor will he want to run here. It not only takes in blue parts of Bucks County, but a huge chunk of Philly including most of Drexel University and the University of Pennsylvania. Have fun with this one, Republicans! Democratic pickup #3.
PA-09
Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg)
Old Vote: Obama 35 McCain 63
New Vote: Obama 38 McCain 61
Description: Shuster will be one of the few Republicans to actually be happy with this map. He retains a heavily Republican district and shouldn't have to worry about a primary challenge.
PA-10
Incumbent: Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton)
Old Vote (PA-11): Obama 57 McCain 42
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
Description: This district is predicated on the idea that Barletta's 2010 victory owes not to Barletta's strengths but Paul Kanjorski's weaknesses. Hence this district is actually weakened slightly because a more energetic campaigner like Corey O'Brien should still be favored to win. Democratic pickup #4.
PA-11
Incumbent: Mark Critz (D-Johnstown)
Old Vote (PA-12): Obama 49 McCain 50
New Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
Description: Critz survived two tough elections in 2010. He gets even safer by pushing further into Allegheny County.
PA-12
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown)
Old Vote (PA-13): Obama 59 McCain 41
New Vote: Obama 59 McCain 40
Description: Instead of going straight from Montgomery County to Philly, this district now curves around through Bucks County. It's basically the same as Schwartz' current district and Fitzpatrick is likely to get crushed if he decides to run here.
PA-13
Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D-Forest Hills)
Old Vote (PA-14): Obama 70 McCain 29
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 38
Description: Doyle's district is significantly unpacked to help Critz. While Pittsburgh proper is not really growing, it's not trending R nearly as fast as the rest of the region (Obama actually did better than Kerry in the current PA-14, whereas Kerry did better in PA-04, PA-12, and PA-18) so Doyle should be okay for the rest of the decade.
PA-14
Incumbent: Charlie Dent (R-Allentown)
Old Vote (PA-15): Obama 56 McCain 43
New Vote: Obama 59 Obama 40
Description: New territory, a bluer district, and Obama coattails in 2012 should be enough to favor 2010 challenger John Callahan (D-Bethlehem) in a rematch. Democratic pickup #5.
PA-15
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township), Joe Pitts (R-Kennett Square)
Old Vote (PA-06): Obama 58 McCain 41
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
Description: Gerlach and Pitts are put together here, but only Gerlach would realistically consider running here. It's less bluer than his current district, but contains a lot of new territory as well as Democratic voters in Lancaster who are both unfamiliar to him and less likely to ticket split. About half of this district is new to either Pitts or Gerlach, so a Dem should be favored here. 2010 PA-06 challenger Manan Trivedi (D-Reading) is a possibility. Democratic pickup #6.
PA-16
Incumbent: Tim Holden (D-St. Clair), Todd Platts (R-York)
Old Vote (PA-17): Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 49 McCain 50
Description: Holden largely maintains his current district, including Dauphin County (home to the state's capital, Harrisburg) and his home of Schuylkill County, both places where he crushed David Argall in 2010. This district actually gets a tick bluer by adding the city of York. Holden's safe.
PA-17
Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair)
Old Vote (PA-18): Obama 44 McCain 55
New Vote: Obama 43 McCain 56
Description: Right after the man from St. Clair in the east comes the man from Upper St. Clair in the west. This district is red and only getting redder, so Murphy's safe.
PA-18
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (PA-19): Obama 43 McCain 56
New Vote: Obama 37 McCain 62
Description: Here we are, the reddest district in Pennsylvania. Todd Platts lives in the 16th but would run here. He's actually a sane conservative, not just in temperament but very occasionally he'll vote with the Democrats (stem cell research for example). This blood red district isn't electing a progressive anytime soon, so hopefully Platts keeps on keeping on.