It's time for another potential Democratic gerrymander. Arizona is a state that Democrats will never get to gerrymander no matter what, because it redistricts with a bipartisan commission. If Democrats could gerrymander Arizona, though, they could easily draw three safe liberal Democratic seats plus two seats for moderate Dems Gabby Giffords and Ann Kirkpatrick. To see what this would entail, read past the fold.
I tried to keep all Democratic incumbents in their districts. I found two addresses for Raúl Grijalva but both are within his district. Ed Pastor's "home" is apparently the address of his wife's business, but at any rate it's their property so I'll just count it as his home.
Keep in mind when looking at partisan numbers that McCain had a pretty good homestate bounce in Arizona. It's probably fair to say that a 56% Obama district in Arizona would have been about 60% Obama or so had McCain not been from Arizona.
Whole state:
AZ-01
Incumbent: Paul Gosar (R-Flagstaff)
Old Vote: Obama 44 McCain 54
New Vote: Obama 48 McCain 50
Description: This district is designed for a comeback by Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff). Like a zit that you can't get rid of, Yavapai County is big and red, and that's why it's mostly gone from this district. Instead, the district runs around to the southern part of the state, taking in Santa Cruz County and the Tohono O'odham reservation. It's narrowly minority-majority total population (49.9% W, 23.2% H, 22.4% NA) but not by VAP (55.3% W, 20.4% H, 20.1% NA). Kirkpatrick should be able to win this one.
AZ-02
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 38 McCain 61
New Vote: Obama 36 McCain 63
Description: Trent Frankenstein doesn't live here and he could probably get primaried since he gets a lot of new territory. For that reason, he might not like this district. Oh wait, what's that? No one gives a shit what he thinks? Sorry, Trent, that's how the cookie crumbles.
AZ-03
Incumbent: Trent Franks (R-Peoria)
Old Vote: Obama 42 McCain 57
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Description: Trent Franks lives here and another option for him is to run here. After all, Brock Landers (who lives in the 4th both under this and the current map I think) is almost certainly going to get his ass primaried anyway. Also, it's safe GOP.
AZ-04
Incumbent: Ben Quayle (R-Phoenix), Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix)
Old Vote: Obama 66 McCain 33
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Description: The partisan numbers may look alarming, but if Ed Pastor doesn't say anything stupid, he'll be fine--once the McCain numbers leave the equation in 2016, this district's PVI should be around D+8 or 9. This district is 61% Hispanic by total population (it's currently 64% but was only 58% in 2000) and 55% by VAP.
AZ-05
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 47 McCain 52
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
Description: Easy pickup for former Congressman Harry Mitchell (D-Tempe). It's also minority-majority by total population (49.2% white, 34.8% Hispanic) but not by VAP (55.9% white, 28.9% Hispanic).
AZ-06
Incumbent: Jeff Flake (R-Mesa)
Old Vote: Obama 38 McCain 61
New Vote: Obama 40 McCain 59
Description: Jeff Flake is running for Senate so open seat. Safe R yada yada. Maybe competitive at the end of the decade but not by any means a sure thing.
AZ-07
Incumbent: Raúl Grijalva (D-Tucson)
Old Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Description: This is basically the same district but looks more gerrymandered due to the removal of the Tohono O'odham reservation. Grijalva will be fine as long as he excises the word "boycott" from his vocabulary. It's 57% Hispanic total pop (compared to the current district's 51% in 2000 and 56% in 2010).
AZ-08
Incumbent: Gabby Giffords (D-Tucson)
Old Vote: Obama 46 McCain 52
New Vote: Obama 48 McCain 51
Description: Well, it's a bit unclear what's happening here. The big question is, does America's Congresswoman run for re-election? If so, this is Safe D. Gabby has amazing political skills and would have won this one anyway, but especially now that she's become a national symbol. If she doesn't run, Dems are still very competitive here, especially if Republicans run another nutjob like Randy Graf.
AZ-09
Incumbent: David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills)
Old Vote: N/A
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Description: With his old district turning deep blue, Schweikert might as well just run in this new district where he lives. But with lots of new territory, he might get a primary.