UPDATE: I have updated the district descriptions to include a breakdown of how many people they include from each of the former districts, as well as percentages. This should give a good idea of which incumbents might run in each of these districts.
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Some time ago I posted a Massachusetts map on Swing State Project which was an attempt to eliminate John Tierney while protecting all other incumbents. This time I'm back with another map, but this one isn't a realistic guess of what might happen, rather a theoretical look at what districts would look like if drawn to keep similar areas together. The bad news about this map is that it screws over several incumbents and gives Republicans serious chances at several seats, but the good news is that it's more attractive than the current map and gives some communities such as SE Massachusetts (the areas around Routes 6 and 44) a better voice.
More below the flip.
Once again, this map is a theoretical exercise. No attempt is made to keep districts Democratic or to give incumbents favorable districts. Compared to the current map which splits four municipalities (Boston, Wayland, Fall River, and Hanson) this map only splits Boston, and it also barely splits Brockton (all of it is in the 8th except for a single precinct in the 9th). However the population deviation is not too much worse than the current map anyway.
Here is a map of the whole state.
Now for a district-by-district breakdown.
MA-01
Incumbent: John Olver (D-Amherst), Richard Neal (D-Springfield)
Title: Western MA/Berkshires
Old District Breakdown: MA-01: 403,099 (55%), MA-02: 324,752 (45%)
Description: This district is basically a mashup of the currently MA-01 and MA-02. It takes in liberal Berkshire towns in western MA as well as Springfield. It's essentially a combination of the most Democratic parts of the current MA-01 and MA-02. Its PVI could very well be as high as D+20 or so. Olver might have the advantage if there is a primary battle since more of the territory is his (although former State Sen. Andrea Nuciforo is a wild card).
Rating: Safe D
MA-02
Incumbent: Jim McGovern (D-Worcester)
Title: Central MA/Worcester
Old District Breakdown: MA-01: 127,197 (18%), MA-02: 319,961 (44%), MA-03: 278,403 (38%)
Description: Jim McGovern loses his tail into heavily Democratic Fall River and instead gains a lot of conservative-ish areas that were previously in MA-01 and MA-02. Now Worcester is the only Democratic anchor here, but if the other towns go Republican, Worcester can easily be drowned out. I'd imagine Scott Brown won something like 60% of the vote here. McGovern might hang onto Democratic coattails in 2012 but afterwards he is in big danger.
Rating: Lean D
MA-03
Incumbent: OPEN
Title: MetroWest
Old District Breakdown: MA-01: 114,660 (16%), MA-02: 16,332 (2%), MA-03: 194,706 (27%), MA-04: 28,826 (4%), MA-05: 205,575 (28%), MA-06: 13,320 (2%), MA-07: 153,586 (21%)
Description: This open seat is a mishmash of territory from a bunch of current seats. It contains some swingy areas in the west and some R-leaning areas in the south, but the core of the district is heavily liberal MetroWest suburbs like Lexington, Acton, and Concord. Dems are heavily favored to hold this one and if Coakley didn't win it, she definitely came close.
Rating: Likely D
MA-04
Incumbent: Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell)
Title: Lowell/Boston Northern Suburbs
Old District Breakdown: MA-05: 456,694 (63%), MA-06: 164,139 (22%), MA-07: 107,914 (15%)
Description: This district very closely resembles the current MA-05, except pushed a bit further east and south. It's a bit of a leftovers district. It still has Lowell and Lawrence so it should be okay for Niki.
Rating: Likely D
MA-05
Incumbent: John Tierney (D-Salem), Ed Markey (D-Malden)
Title: North Shore
Old District Breakdown: MA-06: 472,702 (65%), MA-07: 170,369 (23%), MA-08: 84,305 (12%)
Description: This district very strongly hews to the current MA-06 and is probably about the same in terms of partisan lean. Tierney is probably favored in a primary since he has way more territory here than Markey does, but we should root for Markey because he's more electable due to not having the same ethics issues as Tierney. Even if Tierney does win, though, he'll probably pull it out in the general...at least for 2012. He's helped by the addition of Markey's hometown of Malden (ironically) and some precincts in Boston added to meet population requirements.
Rating: Likely D
MA-06
Incumbent: Barney Frank (D-Newton), Mike Capuano (D-Somerville)
Title: College District
Old District Breakdown: MA-04: 171,860 (23%), MA-07: 216,293 (30%), MA-08: 339,619 (47%)
Description: This district, home to my workplace, basically jumps all over the Boston area grabbing every single college possible without splitting towns. Off the top of my head, it includes Harvard, MIT, BU, BC, Brandeis, Northeastern, Wellesley, and Tufts (and some smaller universities like Lesley University in Cambridge and Babson in Wellesley). It also includes Allston-Brighton and Brookline which don't have colleges but are home to a lot of college students and other young people. Needless to say, this is the most liberal district in the entire state. Barney Frank only represents about 170,000 people in this district while Capuano represents closer to 340,000, so if they were to face off I think Capuano would have the advantage.
Rating: Do you even need to ask? Safe D
MA-07
Incumbent: Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston), William Keating (D-Quincy)
Title: Quincy/Boston South
Old District Breakdown: MA-08: 236,490 (32%), MA-09: 397,319 (55%), MA-10: 92,271 (13%)
Description: This district comes the closest to being minority-majority but is still almost 60% white VAP. Sadly, douchebag Stephen Lynch probably has the advantage here because more of the territory is his. Either way, most of Boston + Quincy + Randolph=Safe D.
Rating: Safe D
MA-08
Incumbent: OPEN
Title: Southeast Massachusetts
Old District Breakdown: MA-03: 191,904 (26%), MA-04: 349,834 (48%), MA-09: 188,294 (26%)
Description: Finally, instead of being carved up among several Boston-area districts, Southeast Massachusetts (arguably more closely aligned with Providence than Boston) finally gets a voice in Congress. The best part is that it will be a Democratic voice, since this district contains Sharon, Fall River, New Bedford, and most of Brockton. Since William Keating used to live in Sharon, he might run here instead of face Stephen Lynch.
Rating: Safe D
MA-09
Incumbent: OPEN
Title: South Shore, Cape, and Islands
Old District Breakdown: MA-04: 97,900 (13%), MA-09: 64,819 (9%), MA-10: 564,486 (78%)
Description: This district strongly resembles the current 10th, as it contains the South Shore, Cape Cod, and Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard. However, this district doesn't contain Democratic Quincy and does add heavily conservative Middleboro-Lakeville (previously in the 4th). This is definitely the toughest district besides MA-02, but at least there we have the advantage of incumbency with McGovern. Here, excluding the small chance that Keating runs here, we don't even have that. Tossup for 2012, but in a 2010 repeat the Republicans have no excuse not to win here.
Rating: Tossup
Conclusion: This map looks fairly attractive and would give SE Massachusetts a voice. Even though Cape Cod, Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard, and Plymouth/Bristol counties have enough population for about two congressional districts, none of the ten incumbents actually live there. This map would change that. However, it would also give the Republicans serious shots at picking up two districts (MA-02 and MA-09). Perhaps it's a good thing for Democrats that this map is the fantasy of a bored college student on summer vacation rather than actual legislators on Beacon Hill.