Unfortunately, the loss of a heavily Democratic state senate seat in Buffalo means that Democrats will not have full control over redistricting. They control the governorship and the Assembly by a wide margin, but the State Senate is controlled by Republicans. However, Democrats should still have leverage over the congressional map. The reason for that is that Republicans will want to gerrymander the State Senate districts in order to have a shot at keeping their majority, and because of that they'll have to play nice with the Democrats. If they don't, a court-drawn map would almost certainly cause Democrats to retake the State Senate. Unfortunately, a court map could have unfortunate consequences for Democrats at the congressional level...but the same could be said for Republicans.
For a possible map of Upstate New York congressional districts that a court might draw, read on.
For the purposes of this map, I am assuming that a court would draw a map of New York that tries to keep together cities, counties, and communities of interest while not taking into account partisan leans or incumbent residences. Hence, the map I drew might make quite a few current congresscritters, both Democratic and Republican, unhappy. Others, however, might be quite pleased with the map.
Before we start, I'd like to note that while my partisan numbers are basically 99% accurate, they aren't 100% accurate because 2010 voting districts don't match up perfectly with the special voting districts in Dave's App that include partisan data. With that out of the way, here we go!
NY-27 Incumbent: Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Vote: Obama 48 McCain 51
Description: This is the Southern Tier district. It's barely different from the current NY-29, which is also represented by Reed and also voted for McCain 51-48. So little change here, Tom Reed might be bothered by the new territory and addition of Binghamton but in the end his district is basically the same and he should be fine.
NY-26 Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport)
Vote: Obama 59 McCain 40
Description: Slaughter will no longer represent "earmuffs," but rather a compact district confined to Monroe County. Because this district withdraws from Buffalo, it becomes considerably less Democratic, going from 69-30 Obama to 59-40. But Slaughter has represented a district like this before, and this district is still strongly Democratic. So she'll be fine, too.
NY-25 Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo), Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg)
Vote: Obama 60 McCain 38
Description: Another district that has compacted to fit inside one county. However, the loss of Chautauqua County makes this district much more Democratic than the current NY-27 (which is 54-44 Obama). Though Hochul lives here, she's already said she'll move to her district, which under this map would basically be NY-24. So Higgins will probably have this Democratic-leaning district to himself. With a district this blue, he'll be gettin' Higgy with it for as long as he pleases.
NY-24 OPEN
Vote: Obama 47 McCain 51
Description: This district is basically the current NY-26, but despite losing some of Erie County, it actually becomes more Democratic (probably due to the addition of Niagara Falls). It was 52-46 McCain, now it's 51-47 McCain. Hochul will probably move here to run. She'll have a fight on her hands, but she can win for sure.
NY-23 Incumbent: Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Vote: Obama 56 McCain 42
Description: Now here's an incumbent who might be annoyed. Not because her district is changing, but rather because it's not changing. This district's 56-42 Obama margin isn't much different from the current NY-25's 56-43 Obama margin, and while it does gain some new territory, it retains the vast majority of its current territory (Onondaga County, Wayne County, northern Cayuga County). But Buerkle was a fluke candidate who won due to a number of factors. 2010 was awful for Upstate Democrats, American Crossroads moneybombed the district, and Syracuse had mediocre turnout. With all of those (except possibly the second) likely to change in 2012, Buerkle will have a tough time hanging on here.
NY-22 Incumbent: Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Vote: Obama 51 McCain 47
Description: Here's another incumbent who might sweat under this map. Hanna's district (currently NY-24) becomes only an inch more Democratic, from 51-48 Obama to 51-47 Obama. He retains his district's population anchors of Cortland County and Oneida County. But he gains all of Tompkins County, and you better believe those Cornell students will turn out in 2012. Hanna will need to hope that the conservative counties of Lewis, Herkimer, and Madison come through for him. I believe he is pro-choice, which might help him.
NY-21 Incumbent: Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Vote: Obama 53 McCain 45
Description: This is the North Country/Adirondacks district, which is currently NY-23. Dropping Lewis, Madison, and Oneida counties improves this district's Democratic performance slightly, from 52-47 Obama to 53-45. Owens will still have to fight for re-election, though. Former Congressman Scott Murphy (D) also lives here.
NY-20 Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Vote: Obama 56 McCain 42
Description: This is the Capital District CD, the successor to the current NY-21. Replacing Troy and Rensselaer with conservative territory drops it from 58-40 Obama to 56-42 Obama, but Tonko is a low-key guy and should be fine.
NY-19 Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties), Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Vote: Obama 56 McCain 43
Description: I'm not sure whether Hinchey lives in Saugerties or Hurley, but both are in this district. Anyway, this is the Upper Hudson/Catskills district, which contains parts of both the current NY-22 and NY-20. NY-20 is 51-48 Obama and NY-22 is 59-39 Obama, so this district is actually slightly closer to NY-22. Hinchey almost lost in 2010, but the fallout from him roughing up a reporter should be yesterday's news by 2012, and he'll have Obama at the top of the ticket to gin up turnout in Ulster County. I would guess that he could beat Gibson here.
NY-18 OPEN
Vote: Obama 50 McCain 49
Description: This is the Lower Hudson district, essentially the same as the current NY-19. It's also slightly more Republican than NY-19, which is 51-48 Obama right now. So Nan Hayworth will probably want to move here.
NY-17 Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D-Harrison), Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Vote: Obama 59 McCain 41
Description: Lowey's district gets shifted north. It drops areas of Westchester closer to the city like New Rochelle and Scarsdale, and gains areas from NY-19 including northern Westchester and the rest of Rockland County. It's a bit weaker than her current 62-38 Obama district, but with many McCain-voting Orthodox Jews in Rockland County willing to vote for Lowey, she should be fine.