The sad reality of Georgia redistricting is that Republicans will be in control. Republicans control the state legislature, and in 2010, Georgia voters ignored Nathan Deal's sketchy ethics issues and voted for him over Roy Barnes by nearly double digits. That's why Democrats in Georgia probably can't expect many good things from redistricting. Judging from the brazen Republican gerrymander in the middle of the decade targeting John Barrow and Jim Marshall, it's clear that Republicans won't play nice this time around. Democrats need to prepare themselves for the worst.
For my best guess at what the congressional map might look like, read on.
In drawing this map, I had four goals that I believe Republican mapmakers might aim for.
1. Protect/please all Republican incumbents.
2. Maintain four majority-black districts.
3. Eliminate non-black Democratic incumbents (ie John Barrow).
4. Create a new district that is likely to go Republican.
I believe I accomplished these goals, but feedback would be appreciated, especially from those with knowledge of Peach State politics.
With that out of the way, here we go!
The whole state
Atlanta
Augusta
Middle Georgia
GA-01 Incumbent: Jack Kingston (R-Savannah)
Old Vote: Obama 36 McCain 63
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Average Vote: Democrat 43 Republican 57
Description: And we're off! This district drops some territory, such as part of Valdosta (including Valdosta State University). It drops more red territory than blue and becomes slightly less Republican, but it's currently R+16 and can still shed a few Republicans without losing Safe R status.
GA-02 Incumbent: Sanford Bishop (D-Albany)
Old Vote: Obama 54 McCain 46
New Vote: Obama 60 McCain 39
Average Vote: Democrat 61 Republican 39
Description: This district starts looking a lot messier, because it shoots up a tentacle to take in most of Macon. Chances are former Rep. Jim Marshall (D) lives here now, since he's from Macon. Sanford Bishop had a close call in 2010, to the point where the race was called for his opponent and then the call was withdrawn. But in this black majority district (53.0% black/39.9% white total, 50.5/43.3 among 18+) which should go from D+1 to D+7 or so, Bishop will face no future problems.
GA-03 Incumbent: Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville)
Old Vote: Obama 35 McCain 64
New Vote: Obama 35 McCain 64
Average Vote: Democrat 37 Republican 63
Description: Because of the shifting of the 2nd as well as fast population growth, the 3rd must change considerably. However, it remains a West GA-based district which reaches up into the Atlanta exurbs, and doesn't budge from Safe Republican status. Lynn "I love the Ten Commandments but can't name them" Westmoreland (sometimes referred to as Lynn "Uppity" Westmoreland) is safe.
GA-04 Incumbent: Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia)
Old Vote: Obama 79 McCain 21
New Vote: Obama 79 McCain 20
Average Vote: Democrat 75 Republican 25
Description: Guam may be capsizing, but Hank Johnson's career isn't. His district is comfortably majority black. It's 54.0% black, 21.6% white, and 16.9% Hispanic total, and 52.7/24.9/15.1 among 18+. If anything, it gets a tad bit more Democratic.
GA-05 Incumbent: John Lewis (D-Atlanta)
Old Vote: Obama 79 McCain 20
New Vote: Obama 79 McCain 20
Average Vote: Democrat 77 Republican 23
Description: Due to slow population growth, this district has to expand a bit into DeKalb and Clayton counties, but it barely changes. It stays majority-black: 52.5% black and 33.6% white total, 50.2/36.8 among 18+. It also remains the most Democratic district in the state, so civil rights hero John Lewis can rest easy.
GA-06 Incumbent: Tom Price (R-Roswell)
Old Vote: Obama 37 McCain 62
New Vote: Obama 34 McCain 64
Average Vote: Democrat 33 Republican 67
Description: RSC douchebag Tom Price's current district should alarm him: it swung from 70-29 Bush to only 62-37 McCain, the third-largest swing in the state. Unfortunately for Republicans, it's hard to protect him while still including the D-trending northern Atlanta suburbs which he calls home. Population growth allows him to pull partially out of blue-trending Cobb County, and he hangs onto straight-R-voting Cherokee County. He should be safe, although around 2018 or so things could start getting iffy.
GA-07 Incumbent: Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville)
Old Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
New Vote: Obama 32 McCain 67
Average Vote: Democrat 31 Republican 69
Description: Another fast-D-trending district, but this one should be safe for the whole decade. As this district swung from 70-30 Bush to only 60-39 McCain, the second-largest swing in the state, there's no way Republicans won't try to fix this one. This district's southern half gets chopped off and it instead heads north from Woodall's home of Lawrenceville, taking in all of uber-red Forsyth County and most of super-duper-red Hall County. Safe R.
GA-08 Incumbent: Austin Scott (R-Ashburn)
Old Vote: Obama 43 McCain 56
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 61
Average Vote: Obama 42 McCain 58
Description: With Macon (and hence presumably Jim Marshall) gone, Austin Scott's got nothing to fear. His district's already R+10, and under this configuration, it likely goes up to R+15 or so.
GA-09 Incumbent: Tom Graves (R-Ranger)
Old Vote: Obama 24 McCain 75
New Vote: Obama 30 McCain 69
Average Vote: Democrat 36 Republican 64
Description: At R+28, this district is currently the 4th-reddest in the whole country. So I figured Tom Graves could take one for the team, since the surrounding Republicans could really use the help. This district probably falls to a mere R+22 or so, but somehow Graves' heart (or lack thereof) will go on.
GA-10 Incumbent: Paul Broun (R-Athens)
Old Vote: Obama 38 McCain 61
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Average Vote: Democrat 43 Republican 57
Description: Paul "Gestapo" Broun's district takes in slightly more of Augusta than currently in order to crack the city and defeat John Barrow. However, he also gains deep-red counties from the 9th, which allows his district to mostly stay the same partisan-wise. It might drop slightly from R+15, but it's still Safe R.
GA-11 Incumbent: Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta)
Old Vote: Obama 33 McCain 66
New Vote: Obama 37 McCain 61
Average Vote: Democrat 37 Republican 63
Description: Another ticking time bomb suburban Atlanta district. Once again, Republicans are screwed by the fact that the Republican incumbent lives in a Democratic area. This district should be fine for most of the decade, but come 2020 Republicans will almost certainly have to draw another Democratic suburban Atlanta vote sink.
GA-12 Incumbent: John Barrow (D-Savannah)
Old Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
New Vote: Obama 43 McCain 56
Average Vote: Democrat 45 Republican 55
Description: In 2006, John Barrow narrowly escaped being devoured by the Republican map. Now, he'll have to see if he can do so again. This new map cracks Augusta, which provided most of Barrow's victory margin in 2010. It also gives the 12th a tentacle into rural counties that Barrow hasn't represented before. Even if he races to the right, this district spells trouble for him.
GA-13 Incumbent: David Scott (D-Atlanta)
Old Vote: Obama 71 McCain 28
New Vote: Obama 66 McCain 33
Average Vote: Democrat 64 Republican 36
Description: Unfortunately, this district grew pretty quickly and had to drop some of its Democratic areas in Cobb County, weakening its function as a Democratic vote sink. However, it's still majority black: 54.7% black and 30.7% white total, 52.5/34.9 among 18+. This district contains none of Atlanta so I doubt Scott lives here. However, his current district doesn't contain any of Atlanta either. As far as I know, his district had some of Atlanta before the mid-decade redistricting and he continued to represent it even after it changed, so presumably he'll keep representing it the way it is under this map.
GA-14 OPEN
Old Vote: N/A
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Average Vote: Democrat 39 Republican 61
Description: This new, ugly district contains some of super-fast-growing Gwinnett County as well as a piece of Augusta. It also reaches to heavily Republican counties in the northeast. This is another district that could be trouble later in the decade but starts off as Safe R.