This will be a short diary, but I thought it was worth a post.
Objections are apparently bubbling on the Republican side of the aisle about the planned Republican congressional map in Pennsylvania. It seems a large number of Republicans will vote the plan down, with passage hinging on Democrats whipping some of their members (paradoxically) to vote for the map.
The stated objections are Republicans in the Lehigh valley and Lancaster County do not want their areas split. Let's briefly look at how it affects the map.
The direct changes which are demanded move a small amount of people (less than 40,000) out of PA-7 and into PA-16, and a much larger amount of people (130,000 or so) out of PA-17 and back into PA-15. Knock-off change require modification to PA-6, PA-10, and PA-11.
PA-6 - Was 53% Obama - Now 53.7%
The changes are pretty minor. The district loses some territory in Lebanon County, and gives up a few Chester County suburbs to PA-7. In return it takes in more of Berks, particularly a few of the not quite so overwhelmingly Democratic parts of Reading. This is a pretty minor hit, all in all however.
PA-7 - Was 51.2% Obama - Now 51.8%
Losing the Lancaster voting districts, PA-7 stole back a few precincts from PA-16, along with some from PA-6, all in Chester County. Again, the minor boost to Democratic performance isn't terrible.
PA-10 - Was 42.3% Obama - Now 39.1%
This district needed extensive redrawing because Tim Holden needed to grab up new territory to make up for what was returned to PA-15. As such, it loses the highest-performing areas for Democrats (portions of Monroe and Lackawanna), and has to dive deeper into South Central Pennsylvania to make up the difference. It's even more right-wing than before as a result.
PA-11 - Was 47.1% Obama - Now 46.4%
Barletta's district becomes a bit more right wing. It retreats a bit out of Carbon County, but it mostly just gains new and different areas of South-Central PA (none of Cumberland, more of Dauphin, most of Lebanon). I'd say with a slightly more compact community of interest in the southern reaches, it's more likely Barletta gets a primary challenge now.
PA-15 - Was 52.1% Obama - Now 55.5%
This is the big change - a whopping 3.4% added to Dem performance. Nothing can really be done about this, since Lehigh and Northampton alone are only 58,000 or so short from a full congressional district, and there's nowhere in Berks conservative enough to make up the difference.
PA-16 - Was 50.2% Obama - Now 48.8%
Joe Pitts is probably a bit happier now, and his district is probably totally out of Democratic reaches. It retreats just a bit out of Chester and Berks.
PA-17 - Was 56.9% Obama - Now 56.8%
Lacking any of the Lehigh, this district has to look far and wide for Democrats. It mainly poaches them from PA-10 (the areas of Monroe and Lackawanna). Still, it has to take in other right-leaning areas like the remainder of Carbon County, so it moves a teeny bit to the right.
Bottom line:
It seems pretty easy for the Republicans to deal with the concerns of their state reps in Lancaster County, as any changes there would be cosmetic and probably not affect PA-6 and PA-7 by more than 1%.
On the other hand, unless you believe in the story of the unbeatable Charlie Dent, it's pretty much impossible to make PA-15 safe without breaking up the Lehigh Valley. I have to think that Republicans are sweating this seat, perhaps because they believe Don Cunningham wants to jump in.