Unfortunately for Democrats, the Republican Party has gerry-rigged (a portmanteau of jerry-rig and gerrymander) the State of Pennsylvania from within an inch to death. Seriously. Their map completely destroys the concept of Communities of Interest and somehow crafts 14 seats which are winnable for them, at least 10 of which are completely safe even over the long-term. Furthermore, the Democrats released their own map which sucked almost as bad. So, someone should be drawing a map to maximize Democratic opportunity and I've done that. Ofcourse, the map had alot of wonderful input from andgarden which I was extremely grateful for.
A note on numbering before we begin: I don't care about the official numbers. This map completely revamps the entire damn map anyway, so it isn't like the old district numbers would be viable. I'll reference them and their incumbents, though, so don't fret too much!
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District 1. Blue.
52.5 Obama, 46.2 McCain.
This district, based in Erie, is basically the successor to the also-Erie based 3rd which is held by Mike Kelly. The problems for Republicans? Not only does their incumbent not live in this district anymore (he lives in Butler) because all of the highly Republican precincts have been removed and placed in a Republican vote-sink, but the district also takes in moderately Democratic riverbank cities like Aliquippa and New Brighton. The result? It becomes slightly more Democratic. Given the large overlap between this and the 3rd, Kelly would run here but would only be an even bet to win in any election over this decade (even with the trend towards Republicans in Western Pennsylvania). However, if he decides not to, the district leans Democratic. Tossup.
District 2. Green.
53.8 Obama, 45.3 McCain.
Next we move on to a fair (perhaps not so fair?) fight district between Jason Altmire and Tim Murphy, both of whom are currently in R+6 districts (the 4th and the 18th, respectively). Tim Murphy's base in southwestern Allegheny County is here and so is Altmire's base in McCandless. Guess what? The district is much more Democratic (it takes in the half of Pittsburgh proper) than the districts currently held by either, so the Democratic Altmire is favored. Likely Democratic.
District 3. Purple.
55.4 Obama, 43.7 McCain.
Move slightly to the east and we have the second Pittsburgh seat. This seat also takes in Monroeville, McKeesport, West Mifflin, and some sometimes Democratic areas to the north. Mike Doyle, the current Pittsburgh representative should be completely safe here, but the seat would only be likely Democratic if it were ever to be left open by him. Safe Democratic.
District 4. Yellow.
52.7 Obama, 45.9 McCain.
Here we have the Mark Critz industrial seat, except a hell of alot more Democratic than before. What did I do to shore him up? I took in State College. After that I took in only the most Democratic precincts and cities possible throughout central and southwest Pennsylvania in order to preserve a Democratic seat for as long as possible given the trend away from us in this area. Given Critz's ability to win in 2009 and 2010, I'd expect him to hold this indefinitely. After that, it would lean against the Democrats. Likely Democratic.
District 5. Cyan.
36.8 Obama, 61.1 McCain.
Republican vote sink is the first great part. The second is that it takes in significant portions fro various Republicans so as to ensure cat fud. Most of the population of Bill Shuster's 9th district is here, but he lives and has his base in the Altoona area. The Republican parts of Mark Critz's 12th ended up here. A huge chunk of Tim Murphy's 18th is also here. Why settle for just maximizing Democratic opportunity when you can really have fun screwing over Republicans in their primaries? Safe Republican.
District 6. Red.
39.7 Obama, 58.8 McCain.
This is the northern Pennsylvania district. Also a Republican vote sink that screws with their incumbents. This takes in significant parts of Mike Kelly's 3rd, Glenn Thompson's 5th, and Tom Marino's 10th. Cat fud deluxe. Safe Republican.
District 7. Purple.
38.1 Obama, 60.1 McCain.
This is the central Pennsylvania district. Also a Republican vote sink that screws with their incumbents. This takes in significant parts of Tom Marino's 10th and Bill Shuster's 9th. Cat fud. Safe Republican.
District 8. Green.
50.2 Obama, 48.5 McCain.
This district is the Schuykill Tim Holden district. Safe for him, but likely Republican if open. Obama won here, despite having lost the Holden district as currently configured. It takes in Harrisburg, Lebanon, Hazelton, and Bloomsburg. Safe Democratic.
District 9. Blue.
59.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain.
Poor Lou Barletta. His district takes in many more Democratic voters than before because the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre areas are not split like they are now. Oh, and he also has to introduce himself to new Democratic areas like Easton. I don't think that'll go over well. Likely Democratic.
District 10. Blue.
39.7 Obama, 59.2 McCain.
This is the final super Republican vote sink. It also lends us some good cat fud because it takes in significant portions of both Joe Pitt's 16th and Todd Platt's 19th. Safe Republican.
District 11. Cyan.
54.0 Obama, 45.0 McCain.
This is basically a new district. It combines the blue urban portions of Joe Pitt's 16th (Lancaster and half of Reading), Todd Platt's 19th (York), and Jim Gerlach's 6th (the other half of Reading). If any of them chose to run here the cat fud primary would probably ensure that the Democratic candidate would win despite the deceiving Obama performance. This district is also trending toward the Democratic party on the strength of Latino growth in the urban areas. Tossup.
District 12. Yellow.
43.0 Obama, 55.8 McCain.
Not exactly a super Republican vote sink, but pretty damn close to it. This district is basically the left overs that resulted from making all of the Philadelphia area districts bluer and from making a tossup district out of Lancaster, Reading, and York. Cat fud abounds here, too, as there are significant portions of Gerlach's 6th, Pitt's 16th, and Charlie Dent's 15th. Safe Republican.
District 13. Blue.
59.7 Obama, 39.2 McCain.
Poor poor Mike Fitzpatrick. Not only does his district enjoy (?) a big bump in Obama performance, but that performance is much more solid. This because it isn't from the fickle suburbs and is instead in Philadelphia proper. Likely Democratic.
District 14. Green.
61.5 Obama, 37.7 McCain.
Allyson Schwartz keeps a very similar to her current lines (some people simply deserve to be rewarded given their 2010 performance). The only major difference is one that makes her much safer: it snakes up to take in Bethlehem. Safe Democratic.
District 15. Purple.
61.0 Obama, 38.0 McCain.
This is basically a combination of Jim Gerlach's 6th held Norristown and Charlie Dent's 15th held Allentown. Except neither of them would run here. It's simply way, way, way too Democratic. Likely Democratic.
District 16. Red.
65.0 Obama, 34.2 McCain.
This it the successor to Bob Brady's 1st. It has significant overlap with the current lines, except gives some of its extra Democratic voters to neighboring districts and absorbs some Republican suburban voters in Chester County. Safe Democratic.
District 17. Yellow.
82.6 Obama, 16.9 McCain.
This is the VRA district for Chaka Fattah. It takes a hit in AA percentage down to only 50.7, but that was needed in order to secure the neighboring districts. It also travels outward to drown out some Republican-er areas. Safe Democratic.
District 18. Cyan.
68.6 Obama, 30.6 McCain.
This is basically Pat Meehan's district, except with a huge African American population. Okay, perhaps not so huge: only 23.9 VAP. That, however, is enough to give them significant say in the Democratic nomination and ensure that suburban Republican voters are drowned out in the general (not that there are many of those left anyway really). Safe Democratic.
One interesting thing about the map is that the two large yellow districts look like animals. The more westerly one looks like a large Cobra rearing its head while the more easterly one looks like a cat running towards the west. It has a head, front legs, back legs, and a tail into Bucks County.
So guess what? Only 5 of these districts are unwinnable for Democrats. Every single one of the other 13 could be won now and can be won at the end of the decade (even the Critz seat, although it will certainly be harder). I think even one of the Safe Republican seats (the 12th) can maybe be won at the end of the decade under favorable circumstances with an incredible candidate given the trend, but that's probably not going to happen. And guess what else? The lines are sure as hell cleaner than the 2001-2011 map and damn well cleaner than both party's proposed maps for the 2011-2021 period.