**crossposted from RRH**
This is how I imagine California should look if it had 24 districts [so that the House overall would be reduced to 200 districts] and were redistricted commission style. All election data two-way. This is my second diary in this series. I'm already done with redistricting all states that don't become at-large states, but not sure in which order I'll write them up. Any preferences? All states are redistricted the way they're stacked up in 2010-- D gerrymanders where D's have free reign, same for R's, and otherwise court/commission style maps. I have a bunch of election data for all of them. NY is already posted here and on RRH.
Northern Cali
Blue: Coast of Norcal, Marin, Vallejo, Fairfield
Election: 71.5% Obama, 66.1% Brown, 65.2% Kerry, 65% Boxer, 61.1% Harris, 68.7% Lockyer (vs. Parish), 60.1% Bowen (vs. McPherson).
Race: 66% White (VAP), 18% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 43% Woolsey, 34% Thompson, 16% Miller.
Rating: Safe D
Green: Northeast Cali
Election: 45.2% Obama, 41.8% Brown, 38.3% Kerry, 36.4% Boxer, 35.4% Harris, 44.6% Lockyer, 34.8% Bowen.
Race: 76% White (VAP), 14% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 48% McClintock, 45% Herger
Rating: Safe R
Purple: Sacramento, Citrus Heights
Election: 60.9% Obama, 60.7% Brown, 51.6% Kerry, 54.9% Boxer, 50.0% Harris, 58.2% Lockyer, 47.3% Bowen.
Race: 53% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Asian
Prior Representation: 45% Lungren, 43% Matsui, 16% Miller.
Rating: Likely D
Greyish Blue: Modesto, empty counties
Election: 46.6% Obama, 43.4% Brown, 37.7% Kerry, 37.7% Boxer, 36.6% Harris, 46.9% Lockyer, 36.5% Bowen.
Race: 56% White, 33% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 33% Cardoza, 32% Denham
Rating: Safe R
Light Blue: Fresno, Tulare County
Election: 49.3% Obama, 44.7% Brown, 39.9% Kerry, 38.1% Boxer, 37.2% Harris, 48.2% Lockyer, 37.2% Bowen.
Race: 49% Hispanic, 37% White
Prior Representation: 49% Nunes, 33% Costa, 18% Denham
Rating: Safe R
Green: Coastal CA, Salinas, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz Cnty
Election: 63.7% Obama, 57.1% Brown, 57% Kerry, 56.7% Boxer, 51.9% Harris, 59.8% Lockyer, 45% Bowen.
Race: 54% White, 35% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 43% Farr, 20% Capps, 11% McCarthy
Rating: Safe D
Note: Does anyone know why Bowen bombed here so much? It's not an error, I checked-- she won Santa Cruz by just one point, and that's a 79% Obama county.
Pink: Bakersfield, Ventura County
Yeah, I know, not great, but one district always has to suffer in terms of CoI. And it's not terrible-- there's a traffic connection over the I-5, and both places are pretty conservative by Cali standards.
Election: 53.9% Obama, 47.1% Brown, 46% Kerry, 45.3% Boxer, 40.6% Harris, 51.5% Lockyer, 44% Bowen.
Race: 51% White, 38% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 37% Gallegly, 27% McCarthy, 24% Capps, 11% Costa
Rating: Likely R for Gallegly, Lean R for McCarthy
Bay Area
Red: Pelosistan, San Mateo Cnty
Election: Harris broke 70% here. That's enough to know.
Race: 45% White, 30% Asian, 18% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 43% Pelosi, 42% Speier, 15% Eshoo
Rating: Really?
Teal: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Election: Harris broke 75% here. Even more D.
Race: 33% White, 27% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 14% Black
Prior Representation: 43% Stark, 42% Lee, 14% Miller
Rating: Duh.
Yellow: San Jose
Election: Harris broke 60% here. Still D enough.
Race: 36% White, 35% Asian, 24% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 41% Lofgren, 36% Honda, 22% Eshoo
Rating: Safe D.
Grey: Concord-Livermore-Stockton
Yup, also not a perfect CoI, but there is a traffic connection, and it's better than splitting up San Jose.
Election: 62.8% Obama, 56.4% Brown, 55.7% Kerry, 55.9% Boxer, 51.3% Harris, 60.5% Lockyer, 51.6% Bowen.
Race: 52% White, 24% Hispanic, 15% Asian
Prior Representation: 39% McNerney, 36% Garamendi, 12% Miller
Rating: Safe D.
LA-OC-San Bernadino area
Yellowish Green: Santa Clarita, Lancaster, Monrovia, Arcadia, Victorville
Election: 51.7% Obama, 46.1% Brown, 44.4% Kerry, 46.1% Boxer, 38.5% Harris, 48.9% Lockyer, 43.4% Bowen.
Race: 46% White, 30% Hispanic, 14% Asian
Prior Representation: 48% McKeon, 16% Lewis, 15% Dreier, 14% Schiff
Rating: Likely R.
Brown: Malibu, Santa Monica, white parts of the San Fernando Valley
Election: 59.5% Harris in Cooley's home county.
Race: 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 12% Asian
Prior Representation: 40% Waxman, 32% Sherman, 18% Berman
--this time Waxman joins in the -man fun.
Rating: Safe D.
Orange: San Fernando, Burbank, Glendale
Election: 60+ for any Dem
Race: 56% Hispanic, 28% White, 11% Asian
Prior Representation: 24% Berman, 23% Schiff, 13% Becerra, 12% Sherman
--Really? Just 13% of this territory is being represented by a Hispanic already?
Safe D
Green: LA itself
Election: 75+ for any Dem
Race: 61% Hispanic, 14% White, 12% Asian, 12% Black
Prior Representation: 26% Becerra, 24% Bass, 19% Roybal-Allard, 14% Waters, 13% Sanchez
Safe D
Yellow: Inglewood, Torrance
Election: 60+ for any Dem
Race: 36% Hispanic, 26% White, 22% Black, 13% Asian
Prior Representation: 34% Hahn, 29% Waters, 17% Richardson, 15% Bass, 13% Sanchez
Safe D
Blue: El Monte, Whittier, Norwalk
Election: Okay, Harris got just 55% here, but that's still a D+15.
Race: 57% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 16% White
Prior Representation: 32% Chu, 21% Napolitano, 18% Linda Sanchez, 15% Roybal-Allard
Safe D
Pinkish: Pomona to San Bernadino
Election: 61.9% Obama, 58.3% Brown, 53.2% Kerry, 55.1% Boxer, 49.7% Harris, 59.7% Lockyer, 52.7% Bowen
Race: 56% Hispanic, 27% White
Prior Representation: 47% Baca, 22% Dreier, 12% Calvert
Safe D [D+7...]
Light Blue: West Covina, Corona, Riverside, La Mirada, Tustin, Irvine
Election: 49.7% Obama, 41.6% Brown, 40.8% Kerry, 41.4% Boxer, 35.9% Harris, 45.1% Lockyer, 38.9% Bowen
Race: 43% White, 28% Hispanic, 23% Asian
Prior Representation: 27% Miller, 25% Calvert, 19% Campbell, 15% Royce
Rating: Safe R
Red: Long Beach, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove
Election: 59% Obama, 54.2% Brown, 50.8% Kerry, 51% Boxer, 44.4% Harris, 54.2% Lockyer, 48.4% Bowen
Race: 45% Hispanic (non-VAP majority), 29% White, 20% Asian
Prior Representation: 39% Loretta Sanchez, 26% Royce, 16% Richardson, 10% Rohrabacher
Likely D
Light Brown: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Oceanside
Election: Obama under 47%, Lockyer under 42%, every other Democrat under 40%
Race: 65% White, 20% Hispanic, 11% Asian
Prior Representation: 27% Rohrabacher, 25% Campbell, 19% Campbell, 22% Issa
Safe R
Dark Brown: Moreno Valley
Election: 48.8% Obama, 43.1% Brown, 40.8% Boxer, 45.6% Lockyer, 38.5% Bowen, 37.1% Harris, 39% Kerry
Race: 53% White, 31% Hispanic
Prior Representation: 42% Bono Mack, 25% Issa, 23% Lewis, 10% Calvert
Safe R
San Diego
Blue: Imperial, Hispanic San Diego, Escondido, Indio, Coachella
Election: 59.5% Obama, 54.6% Brown, 50.9% Kerry, 51.2% Boxer, 47% Harris, 56.3% Lockyer, 48.7% Bowen
Race: 54% Hispanic, 28% White, 10% Asian
Prior Representation: 49% Filner [the highest retention score anywhere], 15% Bono Mack, 15% Davis
Likely D bordering on Safe (D+4-5)
Pinkish: San Diego
Election: 55% Obama, 45.8% Brown, 46.7% Kerry, 46% Boxer, 42.2% Harris, 51.6% Lockyer, 43.7% Bowen
Race: 67% White, 14% Hispanic, 12% Asian
Prior Representation: 38% Hunter, 34% Bilbray, 27% Davis
Lean R (around EVEN, but more Republican locally).
The current NY+CA delegations are 55-27 D, my proposal would shrink that to around 20 D, 9 R with 8 Swing seats