Texas divisionism has long been a part of Texan lore. Not only did my great state enter the union as the result of a treaty (the only such entrance), but that treaty specifically granted Texas the right to divide itself into as many as five states. Ever since then there have been many attempts to divide Texas. Most recently was former Texas Supreme Court Judge Bob Gammage. Anyway, a run down of all the proposed divisions can be found here at the Texas State Historical Association.
I've read through the article thoroughly and have devised what I believe to be a fair median division plan (I couldn't bring myself to pick a single proposal). Doing this was a welcome break after spending time on West Florida, Nickajack, and Sequoyah. So, Texas is divvied into four (sortof) states: between the Brazos River and the Rio Grande River a state of Texas will exist, between the Brazos and the current border of Louisiana will be the state of Caddo, above the 32nd parallel and west of Fort Worth will be Llano, and...
A New Mexican movement existed between the 1970s and 1990s to divide the state into as many as three entities. The southern portion of New Mexico would have been attached to the Trans-Pecos region of Texas and be a new state called Transpecos, the eastern section would be attached to the Texan Panhandle, and the remainder would remain as New Mexico. Well, I've decided to forgo adding parts of New Mexico to the new state of Llano, but I am taking up the idea of creating Transpecos. The lands of this state will be New Mexico south of the 34th parallel (the portion of the state held by the Confederate States of America during the Civil War) and Texas west of the Pecos River.
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Texas
5 Republican - 6 Democratic - 1 Swing
The great state of Texas is still headquartered in the amazing city of Austin. Except now it is something of a swing state, with McCain only having beat Obama here 52-47. Given that reality, I drew a map that would considered a something of a compromise. Republicans would have packed Austin into a single district (as there aren't enough avenues into the city due to the new political geography to split it into four or more) and Democrats would have spread the voting power of The Valley into a third district. I'd also venture to say that this state would be blue by 2016, and Obama would probably be able to contest it in 2012 (representing perhaps his only legitimate pickup opportunity outside of Arizona). Hispanics are actually the plurality here at 48% of the population, while whites are sitting pretty at 42%. The state is 8.2 million strong, which means we get 12 districts.
District 1 (Blue, North): This district is actually heavily Hispanic, but under no circumstances would it ever vote for a Democrat (at least soon). Whites make up 59% of the voting age population, but are almost a just the plurality of the total population at only 55%. I'd give it another five years before they're under 50%. Hispanics are at 33% of the voting age population and they are quickly growing. Eventually we're going to see a massive realignment of the plains as soon as these new Hispanics majorities start voting en masse. McCain got 75% here. This district, which is based in the large prairie communities of Abilene, Big Spring, San Angelo, Midland, and Odessa, is strongly Republican.
District 2 (Green, West): This district is based out of Laredo (it actually takes in the entire municipality, if you can't tell), Eagle Pass, and Del Rio. It also takes in a small portion of Northwest San Antonio. Hispanics make up 66% of the voting age population, and are probably an effective voting majority from this point out despite Obama and Democratic performance having been historically 50-50. I'm rating it as a swing district for now.
District 3 (Purple, North): This safely Republican district is based in San Antonio and ventures north to take in all of the Hill County (except Kerrville) and the rolling hill just north of there. Fun fact: My great grandfather was mayor of Brownwood, Texas for 10 years (just after he had been mayor of Center, Texas) and was the son of Lieutenant Governor Will H. Mayes (who founded the U.T. School of Journalism). My family was instrumental, by the way, in setting up the broadcasting industry in this God forsaken state. Anyway, the seat is safely Republican, although it would have been held by a Democrat fifty years ago.
District 4 (Red, Austin): This seat is safely Democratic and is a Hispanic opportunity district. They comprise 38% of the population, which is just under the white percentage of 43%. African Americans are also a sizable force at 12%. Obama received 64% here.
District 5 (Yellow, Austin): This seat is also safely Democratic, but is completely white at 71%. Obama received 57% here.
District 6 (Black, North): This seat, based in Waco and the Centroplex is largely Republican as Obama got 38% here.
District 7 (Blue, South): This seat, based in Corpus Christi, is almost Hispanic majority (49.9%). Despite that, it still is a likely Republican seat with average Republican performance at 55% and McCain slightly higher at 57%. The district is probably actually trending away from us, as Corpus's growth rate isn't fast enough to offset the exodus from our party of rural whites in places like Victoria and Karnes.
District 8 (Green, East): This district doesn't really have any single population base, but instead takes in all the rural and small town communities. San Marcos is on he edge of being considered a "base", but as a college town which leans Democratic I'd be hesitant to say that it exerts any kind of control over which way this safely Republican district goes.
District 9 (Purple, South): The first of two Rio Grande Valley districts takes in Brownsville, Harlingen, and Weslaco. Heavily Hispanic (88%) and heavily Democratic (Obama 67%).
District 10-11 (Red and Yellow, San Antonio): Both of these are exactly 60% Hispanic, each have Obama performance at 58%, and each have an average Democratic performance of 56%. Both are Democratic.
District 12 (Black, South): The second of two Rio Grande Valley districts takes in McAllen, Edinburg, and Mission. Also 88% Hispanic and has a little bit stronger Democratic performance (69% Obama).
Transpecos
0 Republican - 1 Democratic - 1 Swing
Total: 5 Republican - 7 Democratic - 2 Swing
Transpecos is a Democratic state. I can't imagine a Republican winning it with the voting strength of El Paso so clearly outweighing Republican bastions such as Hobbs, Roswell, Alamogordo, and Ruidoso. Obama won this state with 56%, but that has nowhere to go but up given Hispanic growth. Oh, and did I mention that this state is Hispanic majority?
District 1 (Blue): Based in El Paso. 59% Obama, 56% Democratic, 65% Hispanic.
District 2 (Green): Based in El Paso. 51% Obama, 51% Democratic, 65% Hispanic.
34 Republican - 30 Democratic - 16 Swing
This summary takes into consideration Louisiana, Mississippi, West Florida, and East Florida from my
first diary in this series, Tennessee, Nickajack, and the version of Alabama which is the smallest and has only 4 districts from the
next diary, Sequoyah, Minnesota, and Oklahoma from the
previous diary, and the two states from this diary.
Let's allot the swing districts to the parties (half to each), ending with a final breakdown of 42-38. (I've omitted the phrase about the current breakdown in these state because, well, we haven't gotten all the way though New Mexico and Texas yet). This relative gain of seats alone would put us within striking distance of retaking the House. Granted, 2010 would have wiped us out in both Florida (probably leaving us with no more than the 6 seats we have there now), Tennessee (likely giving us only Memphis's first district), and Oklahoma and Minnesota (where none of the tossup districts would be ours, perhaps save for Collin Peterson's district, and even perhaps the Iron Range district as our loss in 2010), but we'd come back strongly in any neutral year.
Update on Senate: 58-50
As of this moment in the series there are 53 states in the country. The three new additions are West Florida, Nickajack, and Sequoyah. This, ofcourse, means that there are some partisan changes. All six senators from the three new states would be quite obviously held by the Republican party, so their total goes up to 53. However, East Florida would send two Democrats two D.C. instead of just one. Which means that Democrats increase their total to 54, as Republican lose one seat bringing their total to 52. Tennessee and Texas would now likely send one Democrat and one Republican, so now we're at 56-50. Transpecos, being a new state, would send two Democrats to the Senate, taking the total to 58-50. This, despite the addition of so many new states which favor the Republicans, actually represents a net
gain of two seats for Democrats (a gain of .7% against the Republicans). Although Democrats are the majority in the chamber, they are now 7 seats below the 65 votes (3/5 of 108) required to invoke cloture.