In my previous diaries, I tackled historic areas such as West Florida and Nickajack. Another failed statehood attempt was the heavily Native American area of Sequoyah. Although the state wasn't even close to having a majority of the population be Native American (it had just above 13% in the 1900 census), it was denied on two criteria: 1) that large Native American population and 2) it would have created an imbalance between the west and east.
In this diary, I will break down Oklahoma into two states: Sequoyah and Oklahoma. Sequoyah will constitute the eastern half in the borders that it was originally proposed in, while Oklahoma will be the western portion minus the panhandle (which will be latched onto Texas in a future diary). Splitting the state in almost perfect population halves means that they each get three districts (which is up from the five total they have together), meaning that Minnesota loses a district. In addition to districting the two plains states, I'll lay out Minnesota for you all with a district less. At the end of the diary, I'll present the running partisan breakdown of seats (remember to look back at previous dairies in this series to see where we've been).
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Sequoyah
1 Republican - 0 Democratic - 2 Swing
This state would have been won massively by McCain (I.E. in the mid 60s). That's okay though as the state is still fairly hospitable to Democrats, being more akin to Arkansas than the new Oklahoma. There's not much to say other than the state has a sizable Native American population, which allows Democrats a demographic base.
District 1 (Blue): This district has a small population base in Muskogee. Although McCain won it with almost 70% of the vote, Democrats actually do fairly well here by receiving just over 50% of the average vote share. The Native American percentage? 16%. I'd venture to say that that would be higher had the state been admitted on its own. I'm going to rate this one as tossup, even though I'd rate it a lean Democratic if a Blue Dog were running here.
District 2 (Green): This Tulsa based district is also a hell of alot more Democratic than its Obama performance would suggest. Obama pulled only 35% of the vote, but the Democratic average is 45%. This district is safely Republican at the moment, but that may change given further growth in Tulsa.
District 3 (Purple): Interestingly, this district represents an improvement for Democrats. McCain did well here (getting 70% of the vote), but Democrats did surprisingly well also by pulling an average 50-50 performance. On the back of that, and the fact that Native Americans make up 10% of the population, I'm going to rate this district as a pure tossup.
Oklahoma
2 Republican - 0 Democratic - 1 Swing
Total: 3 Republican - 0 Democratic - 3 Swing
This state also would have been won by McCain at a similar margin. As opposed to Sequoyah's affinity for Arkansan political demography, this state is more similar to the Texan Panhandle and, as such, also has a strong Republican tendency with roots as Democratic farmers. The trend away from us at all levels is probably particularly acute.
District 1 (Blue): Wow. Just wow. With 6 total districts now and a lower population requirement, you can draw a third tossup district within the borders of the old Oklahoma. Although Obama received only 40% in this 15% Hispanic and 15% African American district, Democrats pulled 50-50 in the average vote share.
District 2 (Green): Well, that excitement didn't last long as this safely Republican district is based in Edmond. Don't you love suburban Republican strength?
District 3 (Purple): I'd love to rate this as another tossup, but that would be against my better judgement. McCain pulled 67% here, but Democrats got 46% of the average vote. I'm going to put this in with the safe Republican seats, but with the caution that a Democrat could win this under good circumstances.
Minnesota: Districts 1-3
0 Republican - 2 Democratic - 1 Tossup
Total: 3 Republican - 2 Democratic - 4 Tossup
District 1 (Blue): This district is based in the Iron Range, and as such has a decent Democratic average performance at 55%. Obama didn't do as well here, but that doesn't mean that Democratic candidates won't as well. I'm going to rate this as a Democratic seat for now.
District 2 (Green): This district is currently held by Collin Peterson. Obama and McCain split this district with 48% each and the average vote share for Democrats and Republicans is 50-50. With Collin, I'd rate this as a Democratic seat, without I'd rate it as a Republican one (its trending away from us). The average of that is a tossup, which is where I'll place it.
District 3 (Purple): This district is in a similar space to the second. It is held by an incumbent (Tim Walz) who is immensely useful at holding down a seat that is not particularly favorable to us. However, this district is trending towards us because I added a speedily Democratically trending Twin Cities suburb, Eagan, and taking out Mankato. I'm actually going to rate this one as Democratic based on that trend alone.
Minnesota: Twin Cities Area, Districts 4-7
0 Republican - 2 Democratic - 2 Swing
Total: 3 Republican - 4 Democratic - 6 Tossup
Look at me! I didn't split any city except for Edina in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, but still participated in unpacking the area by splitting the counties that they are in.
District 4 (Red): Safely Democratic seat based in St. Paul Obama got 60% here and Democratic performance average the same. This district actually resembles Michele Bachmann's current haunt, but we all know she'd be toast against Betty McCollum.
District 5 (Yellow): This tossup district was narrowly won by Obama and has a narrow Democratic lead in the average performance (51% in both cases). McCain did awfully here (he only got 46%), so I'd venture to say that the trend away from Republicans will come home to roost pretty soon in such a district.
District 6 (Teal): This safely Democratic district is based in Minneapolis. Obama received 66% of the vote in this district, while Democratic average performance is 65%.
District 7 (Grey): Although still somewhat Republican (the average vote score for them is 52%), Obama won the district with just under 50%. Given that the district now takes in more inner suburbs that are already heavily Democratic (like St. Louis Park) or ones that are quickly becoming so (like Golden Valley or Crystal), this district will pretty much be Democratic by the end of the decade and should be rated as a tossup.
29 Republican - 23 Democratic - 14 Swing
This summary takes into consideration Louisiana, Mississippi, West Florida, and East Florida from my
first diary in this series, Tennessee, Nickajack, and the version of Alabama which is the smallest and has only 4 districts from my
previous diary, and Sequoyah, Minnesota, and Oklahoma from this diary.
Let's allot the swing districts to the parties (half to each), ending with a final breakdown of 37-31. This is compared to the current breakdown in these states of 49-16 (the numbers don't add up because of reapportionment). This relative gain of seats alone would put us within striking distance of retaking the House. Granted, 2010 would have wiped us out in both Florida (probably leaving us with no more than the 6 seats we have there now), Tennessee (likely giving us only Memphis's first district), and Oklahoma and Minnesota (where none of the tossup districts would be ours, perhaps save for Collin Peterson's district, and even perhaps the Iron Range district as our loss in 2010), but we'd come back strongly in any neutral year.
Update on Senate: 55-51
As of this moment in the series there are 53 states in the country. The three new additions are West Florida, Nickajack, and Sequoyah. This, ofcourse, means that there are some partisan changes. All six senators from the three new states would be quite obviously held by the Republican party, so their total goes up to 53. However, East Florida would send two Democrats two D.C. instead of just one. Which means that Democrats increase their total to 54, as Republican lose one seat bringing their total to 52. Tennessee, similarly, would now likely send one Democrat and one Republican. Now we have 55 Democrats and 51 Republicans, which represents a net gain by Republicans of 2 seats. Although Democrats are the majority in the chamber, they are now 9 seats below the 64 votes (3/5 of 106) required to invoke cloture.