Time to welcome me back to the fold. It's been awhile since I've posted anything. This semester has made me... busy. Not only have my classes been more rigorous than the last few semesters, but I've been consumed with the process with graduate school applications.
So, I'm sure that you noticed (the inimitable) SaoMagnifico's diaries on fantasy states such as Delmarva and a scenario wherein Oregon had won the battle with Washington over the counties between the Snake River and the 46th parallel. In the comments there I also presented a scenario where El Paso County had been given up by Texas along with the rest of the territory ceded by them after statehood, and then later admitted with New Mexico.
Continuing on that interesting trend, I decided that someone should do West Florida - and that that someone should be me. During the colonial era, West Florida and East Florida were established out of territory acquired by the British from the French and Spanish during the French and Indian War. The dividing line between the two was the Apalachicola River. After the American Revolution, Britain ceded sovereignty of both Floridas to the Spanish. Many border disputes followed, with the United States claiming that West Florida was part of the Louisiana Purchase and that much of the land claimed by West Florida belonged to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. These disputes ended with the Adams-Onis Treaty, where the U.S. negotiated the purchase of the land in exchange for relinquishing claims on the portions of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado that lie within the Mississippi basin. The portions of West Florida claimed by the three states were distributed to them, and the rest of West Florida was consolidated (with East Florida) into a single Florida.
So, here is where the fantasy comes in: instead of divvying up West Florida, the United States allowed both West and East Florida to gain statehood in their original form. In this diary I present the effects of that. I'll begin by showing West Florida, then move to Louisiana, to Mississippi, Alabama, and then finally Florida.
P.S. Instead of quoting the actual demographics and partisan scores, I'm going to speak in generalizations and estimates. Under such a situation, we should assume that history would not have happened in the exact same way. Obviously, these were done in Dave's App (God Bless Him) with the aid of photo editing software. All population deviations were kept within 1000 (usually within 500).
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West Florida
4 Republican - 0 Democratic - 0 Swing
The total population of West Florida is 3,048,221, which entitles it to 4 districts (each with a population of 762,055). Louisiana contributes 1,017,297 to this total, Mississippi 466,900, Alabama 585,259, and Florida 978,765. This state, while being subject to the VRA, would not be able to draw a compact minority majority congressional district. This may actually qualify as the most Republican state at the federal level, beating out the stiff competition of Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.
District 1 (Blue): This district would be around 60% white and around 30% African American. Ofcourse, this would be a safely Republican district anchored in Baton Rouge, with McCain getting around 60% of the vote. Democratic performance is actually somewhat better, at around 55%, but we should not assume that we'd do that well again anytime soon.
District 2 (Green): This district would be around 75% white with a small minority of African Americans. Also a safely Republican Gulfport district, McCain would have scored around 70% of the vote here. Democratic performance would not have been any better.
District 3 (Purple): This district, based in Mobile, would be around 70% white and 20% African American. Again, a safely Republican district that McCain would have run up the margins in.
District 4 (Yellow): This district, based in the capital Pensacola (which was the capital of West Florida at the time), would be just as Republican as the others. 75% white and 15% African American is simply a recipe for Republican dominance during this party system.
Louisiana
4 Republican - 1 Democratic - 0 Swing
Total: 8 Republican - 1 Democratic - 0 Swing
Louisiana, losing out on 1,017,297 to West Florida would only currently have 3,516,075 - only good enough for 5 districts (at 703,215 citizens each). Also, New Orleans likely would have been retained as the capital during the move from territory to statehood (instead of moving to Baton Rouge, which was in West Florida).
District 1 (Blue): A Republican dominated district based in Shreveport and Monroe, McCain would have received around 60% of the vote here (which is also the white percentage). Democratic performance would be around 5 points better at 55%, on the back of the 35% of the district which is African American.
District 2 (Green): I love this district. I actually have an aversion to using water contiguity, but for the purposes of VRA compliance, it is practically required. This district is based in Natchitoches, Opelousas, and Alexandria and is 65% white and 30% African American (with partisan breakdowns that mirror that demographic reality).
District 3 (Purple): This is the Acadiana district. At 70% white and 20% African American, a Democrat's ceiling here is around 35%. Lafayette and Lake Charles really are made for each other...
District 4 (Red): New Orleans' white population, along with the the rest of the coastal areas of the state. 70% white and 70% Republican. New Iberia and Houma are also in the district.
District 5 (Yellow): Just over a majority of the population here is African American, and the district is a strongly Democratic one which is based in New Orleans and snakes up the Mississippi river to take in heavily African American rural areas in the bayou.
Mississippi
2 Republican - 2 Democratic - 0 Swing
Total: 10 Republican - 3 Democratic - 0 Swing
Mississippi, after losing 466,900 to West Florida, still stands at 4 districts with 2,500,397 citizens (each district gets 625,099 of them, which is among the lowest averages, setting it up for a likely loss in the next census). Interestingly, the excising of the Gulfport area makes it easier to draw two African American majority districts in a very clean way.
District 1 (Blue): This heavily white (75%), heavily Republican (70%) district is based in Tupelo and DeSoto county. Not much to say really.
District 2 (Green): This African American majority district is wonderful, in my opinion, because it does not connect the rural African American communities of the Mississippi delta to the inner city ghettoes of Jackson (which really shouldn't be connected from a communities-of-interest perspective). Democrats aren't exactly safe here, at an Obama performance of 55%, but their floor is probably no lower than 50% except in the worst of years.
District 3 (Purple): This African American majority district is based in the inner city areas of Jackson and Hattiesburg (which also has some inner city problems). The Democratic performance here is also around 55%, but I expect that Democrats will usually perform better here than in the other VRA district.
District 4 (Red): This white district (70%) is based in Columbus (which unfortunately couldn't be connected to one of the two prior districts) and Rankin County (suburban Jackson metropolitan area). Republicans are dominant here, as you would expect.
Alabama
4 Republican - 1 Democratic - 1 Swing
Total: 14 Republican - 4 Democratic - 1 Swing
Alabama lost Mobile, which equals losing 585,259 people, taking it down in the number of seats they're allotted. The 4,194,477 still in Alabama is good for 6, only one of which is an African American VRA seat. I tried drawing two, I really did, but it just wasn't possible with the missing African Americans voters from Mobile.
District 1 (Blue): The Huntsville district! This used to be a solidly white and solidly Democratic district, but I am not holding my breath for it to return to that (I'd die).
District 2 (Green): This is the African American majority district. Based out of Birmingham, this district has a sizable white minority (45%). Alabama doesn't have partisan data embedded yet, but I would assume the partisan breakdown would be around 55% Democratic and 45% Republican.
District 3 (Purple): This district is anchored at opposite ends by Birmingham and by Decatur. No Democrat could dream of winning this heavily white district (around 90%).
District 4 (Red): Finally, a swing district. At 55% white and 40% African American, I'd wager that the partisan breakdown just narrowly tilts towards the Republican candidate, but with a strong southern Democrat we could win.
District 5 (Yellow): This district, just like the other suburban Birmingham district, has a counterweight. Here it is Gadsden. Just like the other white majority districts (at 80% here), the Republican candidate is a shoo-in.
District 6 (Teal): This district is leftovers. Republican leftovers to be more precise.
East Florida: Districts 1-16
5 Republican - 6 Democratic - 5 Swing
Total: 19 Republican - 10 Democratic - 6 Swing
And finally we come to East Florida. Guess what? Al Gore won the 2000 election (and by a margin outside recount territory). Guess what? Democrats, though certainly not a dominant force in the state, would probably be in charge here. Given those circumstances, I've drawn the state accordingly (while keeping in mind the recently passed initiative). The state loses 2 districts and lands at 25, given its 17,822,545 inhabitants.
District 1 (Blue): This district, based in Tallahassee, would be easy for us to hold if we nominate a good southern Blue Dog. However, any other candidate would turn it into a tossup. So, at 52% McCain and 48% Obama, let's call this a swing district. Oh, and the demographics are 70% white and 25% African American.
District 2 (Green): Putting Ocala and Gainesville (in their entirety) in the same district is a masterstroke for Democrats. This district was literally split 50-50 between Obama and McCain. Just as with the first, a strong southern Blue Dog would hold this easily. However, I'm going to call it a tossup for our purposes. 75% white, by the way, with equal portions African American and Hispanic.
District 3 (Purple): This is the Jacksonville district. I feel like a broken record here, but the district was evenly split (50-50) by McCain and Obama. A strong southern Blue Dog would hold this district most of the time (perhaps not as well as the first and second). Let's also call this 60% white and 30% African American district a tossup.
District 4 (Red): This district, also anchored by Jacksonville, also has population bases in Palatka and St. Augustine. At 80% white, this district is strongly Republican (65%+ performances would be routine for their candidate).
District 5 (Yellow): Now we have the Deltona and Daytona Beach district, which was won by Obama 53-47. I'm actually bullish on the chances of a Democrat winning this seat, so I'll call that way (giving us our first seat in the delegation).
District 6 (Blue): This is the first of the Orlando districts. At around D+0-1, Obama would have won this 54-46. This district is only 55% white, with equal portions African American and Hispanic (each at around 18%). Orlando's growth will only make the Democratic margins go higher. I'm calling this is a Democratic seat.
District 7 (Green): Repeat everything said about district 6, as the partisan and demographic data are almost identical. I'm also calling this a Democratic seat.
District 8 (Purple): The last Orlando based district is heavily Hispanic (although not majority by any means) at 40%. Whites comprise around 45%. I'd certainly call this an opportunity district, as their candidate is sure to match Obama's 58% showing. Again, I'm calling this district as a Democratic seat.
District 9 (Red): Finally, another Republican seat. This district is based in Palm Bay, where McCain beat Obama 55-45. 80% of the population here is white, with (as is common in Florida) equal portions of Hispanics and African Americans (8% each).
District 10 (Yellow): This Republican seat was also won by McCain 55-45, and has demographic that match the ninth. This seat is based in the fast-growing Tampa suburbs of Pasco County, and the coastal areas of this district have moderate Democratic performance (I.E. trending in our direction). I'm still going to call this a Republican seat.
District 11 (Blue): This seat is based primarily in Tampa, and is 55% white, 25% Hispanic, and 15% African American. Obama did well here, beating McCain 56-44. This, therefore, is another Democratic seat.
District 12 (Green): This seat is based in Lakeland, and is Republican. McCain won it 56-44, despite having two large minority groups (20% Hispanic and 10% African American).
District 13 (Purple): This heavily white (85%) Clearwater based district is a tossup. Obama won it 51-49.
District 14 (Red): The southern half of Tampa is thrown in with St. Petersburg to create a seat that Obama won 55-45. This district is slightly more white that the eleventh, with only 15% each for African American and Hispanic (65% is white). I'm going to call this one a Democratic seat.
District 15 (Yellow): This Bradenton based district is heavily white (85%) and is probably a lean Republican district (McCain won it 51-49), but I'm going to list it as a tossup.
District 16 (Blue): Cape Coral is the anchor of another Republican district, where McCain won 54-46. Hispanics comprise 12% of this district, with African Americans at half that level.
East Florida: Miami Area, Districts 17-25
1 Republican - 6 Democratic - 2 Swing
East Florida: 6 Republican - 12 Democratic - 7 Swing
Total: 20 Republican - 16 Democratic - 8 Swing
District 17 (Green): Oh look at me! I'm being too cute by half. I made a Cuban + Venezuelan district. That probably won't go over well, but I did it to neutralize the Republican-ness of the Cuban population of Hialeah. Miami Beach is also in this district. Obama barely won this district (its really 50-50), so we'll call this another tossup. Did I mention that this district is almost 80% Hispanic?
District 18 (Purple): I drew another tossup anchored on the western coast by Naples and in the Miami area by Sunrise and Plantation. Obama barely lost this district (also basically 50-50), but there is a sizable Hispanic minority (25%). Another tossup.
District 19 (Red): This is the other Cuban district (80% Hispanic), except this one is strongly Republican. McCain won it with almost 60%.
District 20 (Yellow): This district is African American majority (just over 50%) based in North Miami and Pembroke Pines. Obama got 84% here, which is the higher Obama percentage for a district that I drew for this diary.
District 21 (Blue): This district is also based in Miami, except in the Nicaraguan areas and the white areas to the south. Almost 60% is Hispanic, with 25% white, and 10% African American. Obama won this district 60-40.
District 22 (Green): This district is an African American opportunity district based in Fort Lauderdale. Whites are actually a plurality at 40%, African Americans are next at 35%, and Hispanics just above 15%. Obama scored 75% here.
District 23 (Purple): This district (scroll up to the statewide map) is anchored on opposite ends by Port St. Lucie and Palm Beach. Heavily white, but also with a Democratic edge (Obama won 54-46). I'm going to count this one as a Democratic seat).
District 24 (Red): Another white Obama district (60-40), this one is based in Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale. 15% of this district is Hispanic.
District 25 (Yellow): Another white Obama district (60-40), this one is based in Boynton Beach and Palm Beach. This district actually has large minority groups (25% Hispanic and 15% African American).
20 Republican - 16 Democratic - 8 Swing
Let's allot the swing districts to the parties (half to each), ending with a final breakdown of 24-20. This is compared to the current breakdown in these states of 34-9 (the numbers don't add up because of reapportionment). This gain of 11 seats alone would put us within striking distance of retaking the House. Granted, 2010 would have wiped us out in Florida (probably leaving us with no more than the 6 seats we have there now), but we'd come back strongly in a neutral year.