Last week, Gallup showed a big bounce in the potential fortunes of House Democrats, when their advantage over Republicans surged to 6 points. This was the biggest lead for Dems all year in Gallup polling.
Many questioned whether this was statistical noise or an outlier. I myself thought it might be too good to be true.
Well, fear not. This week, Democrats maintain a sizable lead, now at +4 (48D to 44R).
As Gallup notes:
This is the first time either party has held an advantage of [4 or more points] for two consecutive weeks.
More below...
Here's the story intro:
Democrats have a 48% to 44% advantage for the week of July 19-25 in Gallup tracking of registered voters' preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. This marks the second straight week in which Democrats have held an edge of at least four percentage points.
Like last week, Republicans continue to maintain a big edge in enthusiasm, or likelihood to vote, though it's slipped some since last week. This is definitely something that Democratic leadership needs to work on by, you know, passing or genuinely fighting for legislation that appeals to progressives.
Republicans continue to be substantially more enthusiastic about voting, as they have been since March. Their current 18-point lead in voting enthusiasm is down slightly from last week's 23-point lead, but it remains slightly higher than the average 16-point lead they have enjoyed since tracking began in March.
I'm actually surprised by Democratic strength in Gallup over the past couple weeks. As far as I know, these numbers come from the same daily tracking surveys they use to measure presidential approval - and Obama has been at or near his lows in those results. This could suggest that voters are open to the possibility of expressing displeasure with the president without letting it affect their congressional voting intentions.
At any rate, let's savor the good news, keep fighting, and consider contributing (or contributing again) to your favorite House candidate and/or the DCCC.