Democrats need three seats to gain a tie in the State Senate, and four for control. Democrats have a number of chances in the past but they seem to blow their chances every two years.
If Democrats can get control of the Kentucky State Senate, they can draw district maps. Back in 2002, Democrats wanted to take Democratic-leaning Owensboro from the 2nd district from the 1st district (and putting the heavily GOP counties in South-Central KY in the 2nd district). This could make the 1st District more favorable to Democrats when Ed Whitfield retires.
They could also make changes to the 5th district to make it more favorable to a Democrat, when Hal Rogers retires, especially for a candidate such as House Speaker Greg Stumbo.
KENTUCKY STATE SENATE RACES 2010
Current Senate Makeup
Republicans 21 (22)
Democrats 16
Independent 1 (votes with the GOP)
Due to the Kentucky Constitution, only Fayette, Jefferson and Kenton Counties may be split in the State Senate.
DISTRICT 2: Bob Leeper (I/R)
Ballard, Marshall, McCracken
Tossup
This a swing district in the Purchase, centered on Paducah. Leeper has won each of his last two elections by less than 100 votes. Leeper, who is more or less a Republican, could face a repeat of 2006, where he faced a Democrat and a Republican. If Democrats have any chance of winning back the Senate, they need a victory here.
DISTRICT 4: Dorsey Ridley (D)
Caldwell, Crittenden, Henderson, Livingston, Union, Webster
Solid Democrat
This is a heavily Democratic district where Ridley will face little competition.
DISTRICT 6: Jerry Rhoads (D)
Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Ohio
Solid Democrat
This is a heavily Democratic district where Rhoads will face little competition.
DISTRICT 8: David Boswell (D)
Daviess, McLean
Solid Democrat
Boswell narrowly failed in his bid for Congress last year, but carried his district, and should be re-elected easily.
DISTRICT 10: Elizabeth Tori (R)
Hardin, Extreme Southwestern Jefferson County
Likely Republican
Democrats perennially target Tori, in this Republican-leaning district, but always come up short. There is no reason to see why that will not be the case again, except, Tori will be 74 in 2010, the oldest GOP member (and 2nd oldest Senator after Julian Carroll), so an open seat is a possibility, which would lean Republican, given Hardin County voting patterns.
DISTRICT 12: Alice Forgy Kerr (R)
Southern Fayette County
Leans Republican
This is the Republican part of Lexington. She faced a tough opponent in State Supreme Court Justice Keller in 2006, but held on. She starts off with an advantage in 2010, despite Fayette County voting for Obama in 2008. However, Forgy-Kerr may face problems in her vote against slots at tracks in her horse country district.
DISTRICT 14: Majority Leader Dan Kelly (R)
Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor, Washington
Solid Republican
Despite this being a Democratic-leaning district, Kelly will face little opposition, as is the case since he won here. However, there are rumors that Kelly may run for a judgeship. If he does, Republicans will look to Rep. David Floyd of Democratic-leaning Nelson County.
DISTRICT 16: Senate President David L. Williams (R)
Clinton, Cumberland, McCreary, Monroe, Wayne, Whitley
Solid Republican
David Williams may have the most Republican State Senate District. He will be re-elected easily.
DISTRICT 18: Charlie Borders (R)
Bracken, Carter, Greenup, Lewis, Mason, Robertson
Leans Republican
Borders faced a competitive election in 2006 despite an underfunded opponent, but this is a Democratic-leaning district. Democrats need to win this seat to win the Senate in 2010.
DISTRICT 20: Gary Tapp (R)
Bullitt, Shelby, Spencer
Solid Republican
This district consists of most of the suburbs of Louisville, which lean Republican. Tapp beat a solid candidate in 2002, and will go back into the Senate again.
DISTRICT 22: Tom Buford (R)
Boyle, Garrard, Jessamine, Extreme Southern Fayette County
Solid Republican
This is a Republican district centered on the southern suburbs of Lexington. Republicans should have little problem here. Buford was the only State Senate Republican in the A&R Committee to vote for slots, which is a plus in this horse country district.
DISTRICT 24: Katie Kratz Stine (R)
Campbell, Pendleton
Solid Republican
This is a mostly suburban Cincinnati district (Campbell County), which is heavily Republican.
DISTRICT 26: Ernie Harris (R)
Carroll, Henry, Oldham, Trimble, Northeastern Jefferson County
Solid Republican
This district is dominated by heavily Republican Oldham County and Northeast Louisville, and any Republican should win here easily, despite the Democratic voting nature of Carroll, Trimble, and Henry County. This is a horse country district, and Harris could be hurt by his opposition to slots at race tracks.
DISTRICT 28: R.J. Palmer (D)
Bath, Bourbon, Clark, Harrison, Montgomery, Nicholas
Solid Democrat
Republicans packed Democrats into this district when they drew it and it will stay that way in 2010.
DISTRICT 30: Brandon Smith (R)
Bell, Harlan, Leslie, Perry
Tossup
This a strongly Democratic district that Republicans won because of excessive interfering from Governor Beshear to fill the seat of his Lt. Gov. in a special election in 2008. Democrats have to win this seat if they want to win back the Senate. It may be the top Democratic target.
DISTRICT 32: Mike Reynolds (D)
Butler, Warren
Tossup
Winning this seat held by U.S. Rep. Brett Guthrie was a pleasant surprise to Democrats in 2009. Republicans were silly enough to nominate J. Marshall Hughes, part of the Ernie Fletcher scandal, and he lost. Democrats must hold this seat if they want to win back the Senate. Warren County is Republican at the national level, but Democrats can do well locally. However, Butler County is among the most Republican counties in the state. This will be the top GOP target.
DISTRICT 34 Minority Leader Ed Worley (D)
Lincoln, Madison, Rockcastle
Likely Democrat
Worley has been popular, but two of the three counties (though they have less than half the district’s population) are strongly Republican, so he always has to be on his toes.
DISTRICT 36: Julie Denton (R)
Eastern Jefferson County
Leans Republican
Denton’s seat is one of the few districts in Kentucky where Republicans actually hold a registration edge. She is vulnerable because of herself, being way too far to the right and controversies she has been involved in, including the recent Medicaid contract controversy which graced the front page of the Courier-Journal. This is still a tough seat for Democrats. However, this is a district where Democrats could use slots at horse tracks to gain an edge.
DISTRICT 38: Dan "Malano" Seum (R)
Southern Jefferson County
Leans Republican
When Seum switched parties in 1999, it gave Republicans control of the Senate. In turn, Republicans gave him a more Republican seat. This seat includes Democratic leaning southwest Jefferson County, along with upper class southeast Jefferson County. Democrats always seem to target Seum, but fall short, including a not so great candidate in 2006. For Democrats to get to a majority, they will likely need to win at least one GOP held Jefferson County seat.