It's official. Michigan is now essentially off the table for McCain.
Three new polls out today show Obama up solidly--one just out this evening from Selzer & Co., the #1-rated pollster over at 538.com.
Numbers (and a little amateur analysis) below the fold...
MI/Selzer
Obama 51 / McCain 38
Spread: 13 points
Dates: 9/22-24 (Monday-Wednesday)
Movement from last poll: +6 toward Obama
The Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll shows the Democratic senator from Illinois with a commanding lead of 13 points over Republican John McCain in the presidential race. Obama’s lead of 51% to 38% in the poll is nearly double the edge he had a month ago in a Michigan Poll taken just before the Democratic convention in Denver.
The poll showed momentum swinging clearly to Obama in almost every demographic. Among women, his lead is now 54%-35% -- eight points better than it was a month ago, before the Democratic and Republican national conventions and McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Among independents, Obama enjoys a 14-point lead.
As for what’s driving it – it’s the economy.
With the markets in distress, Washington policymakers scrambling to find a compromise bailout plan and taxpayers howling that they don’t want to be stuck with a $700 billion bill to help Wall Street financiers, Obama is reaping the benefit – so much so that Michigan could possibly be removed from the list of battleground states, even as the candidates have spent so much time in the state.
Link:
http://www.freep.com/...
For what it's worth, Ann Selzer is apparently the goddess of polling in the Midwest.
MI/National Journal
Obama 47 / McCain 39
Spread: 8 points
Dates: 9/18-22 (Thursday-Monday)
Movement from last poll: n/a (first poll?)
Source:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.c...
MI/EPIC-MRA
Obama 48 / McCain 38
Spread: 10 points
Dates: 9/20-22 (Saturday-Monday)
Movement from last poll: +9 toward Obama
The poll found that if the election were held today 48% of people in Michigan would vote for Barack Obama. That’s compared with 38% of people who say they would vote for John McCain.
The poll also asked if voters had favorable opinions of the candidates on both tickets. 56% of people say they have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, compared with a 48% favorable rating for John McCain. On the Vice Presidential side of the tickets, 46% of people say they have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, compared with 52% of people who say they have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden.
Quick analysis from a polling junkie (that's me):
It looks like Michigan has firmed up significantly for Obama in a relatively short period. Averaging the spreads from the three polls, we're in double digit territory: 10+ points.
In my view, the state would have "come home" to the Democrats anyway as we move closer to the election, but it seems that the financial crisis has precipitated even faster movement. This is a state that has been hammered harder than most. Issues of national financial instability surely resonate, and Obama has shown enormous poise and insight over the past week or so on these issues.
Who knows, maybe the "McCain doesn't buy American" ads also had an effect.
http://www.youtube.com/...
Nothing's in the bag, of course, but it looks like we can turn some of our attention to the turn remaining defense plays (PA and NH) and expand our offense.