Cross posted at Election Inspection
(Original List posted here)
Well, with the Democratic convention less than two weeks away (and the Republican's convention less than three weeks away) it's becoming clear that we're going to know the identity of Obama's running mate very soon. Over at The Field, Al Giordano thinks that we'll be learning the identity of Obama's running mate by next Monday or Tuesday (or even as early as Sunday night). Al also seems to be of the opinion that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is most likely to be Obama's running mate:
The number one rule in choosing a vice presidential nominee is "first, do no harm." If you're a presidential nominee, you don't want a running mate that will distract from you, commit gaffes, speak off-message, or that secretly thinks he or she is too good to be number two.
And the second rule is, "then, do some good." You want a VP that will reinforce your messages and make voters more comfortable with you.
Kaine is so far passing both tests with flying colors.
Faced with the typical trick questions of television anchors, Kaine had a magic word to dispel each attempted curve ball: "Virginia!"
Al also writes that:
Kaine - in this TV interview and elsewhere - emanates a fundamental decency (and in a mild and unforced southern accent) that Bayh simply does not. After the 1990s, there's a "slick factor" that must be avoided at all costs in choosing the vice presidential nominee.
A couple more points:
Indiana has 11 electoral votes. Virginia has 13.
(That's, literally, a couple more points!)
And the comfort factor is always easier with the ally that's been with you all along.
Kaine would make for a very solid - comfort building - Wednesday night at the convention.
I'm thinking, at least right now, that this guy is looking like the wingman of 2008.
Even so, Al does caution that he's not making a prediction, rather he's giving us his "instinct", nevertheless, my own opinion has been for some time that Kaine was always one of the most likely choices to be Obama's running mate.
Over at fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver seems to think that Obama's selection of Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner as the keynote speaker makes it less likely that Kaine will be selected as Obama's running mate (who was the Lt. Governor under Warner):
Biggest loser in all of this? Tim Kaine, who if given the VP slot, might seem like sloppy seconds next to Warner.
Nate also looks at a few tea-leaves involving Sebelius:
As a couple of commenters have pointed out, there are some interesting tea leaves to read here regarding Kathleen Sebelius.
According to the Kansas City Star:
Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will speak at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
The Democratic National Convention Committee said Tuesday that McCaskill will speak on the convention’s opening day, Aug. 25, along with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Michelle Obama. They will talk about national unity.
Sebelius — a co-chairwoman of the convention — also will address the delegates, a party spokeswoman said, although the exact day and time has not been decided.
And here's what Sebelius told CQ Politics on Monday:
On Monday, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Obama adviser Anita Dunn announced the themes for the various nights of the convention, including "Securing America's Future" for the third night, when the vice presidential candidate will speak.
When asked whether the thematic choices could be read as an indication that the VP pick would be someone with a strong background on veterans issues, according to CQ reporter Marie Horrigan, Sebelius said that nothing should be read into that.
"Every potential vice presidential choice also has a speaking slot and so nothing should be read into themes or issues or ideas," Sebelius said.
So every potential vice presidential choice has a speaking slot. Kathleen Sebelius has a speaking slot. Except, unlike Claire McCaskill, or Mark Warner, or Ted Strickland, or Hillary Clinton, the Democrats are not yet ready to assign her a specific slot. She is, to my knowledge, the only Democrat thus far guaranteed a speaking slot without having a particular night assigned to her.
To be fair, a lot of people speak at the convention, so the mere fact that Sebelius has a slot shouldn't mean all that much. But it certainly seems that she's (still) on the short list. I would also note that there would be a certain symmetry to the following pattern of speakers:
Monday -- Michelle Obama
Tuesday -- Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner
Wednesday -- Bill Clinton, Kathleen Sebelius
Thursday -- Barack Obama
You would have, essentially, three "couples" speaking: Michelle and Barack to bookend the convention (the present), Hillary and Bill in the middle (the past), and then Warner and Sebelius (the future), who aren't a couple, but who hit many of the same themes.
Sebelius is also a candidate who I've felt is high on Obama's VP list (I'd probably say that Sebelius is the only woman who was actually on Obama's short list, unlike Arizona Gov. Janet Napalitano, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, or Sen. Hillary Clinton), but I've always felt that Kaine was the one most likely to be Obama's running mate.
Now that we have that out of the way, I'm going to post a short-list of three people in order of who is most likely to be picked as well as a description of my thinking; then I'm going to post a dark-horse list (in no particular order) of candidates who aren't likely, but still can't be ruled out:
The Short List
Choice One: Gov. Tim Kaine (VA)
Reasoning: To start out with the obvious, Tim Kaine is a reasonably popular governor from a state which Obama is making a big play in. In addition, Kaine was the first person to endorse Obama who was not from Illinois; this may seem a bit trivial, but this was at a time when, not only was Obama not considered the frontrunner, it was when Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite for the nomination, unlike politicians from Illinois who were backing their "favorite son", Kaine was risking his political future by doing this; at the very least Obama's not going to forget about that. In addition, Kaine is Catholic and speaks fluent Spanish (with the swing states of New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada having substantial Hispanic populations, it doesn't hurt to have a running mate who speaks fluent Spanish). While Kaine probably isn't as good a choice as former Gov. Warner (whose decision to run for the Senate probably ended any real chance of him being the VP nominee), Kaine is not in any way a bad choice and despite some doubts concerning Warner's keynote, there is still enough evidence to suggest that Kaine is most likely to be chosen.
Choice Two: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS)
Reasoning: Unlike Kaine, Sebelius isn't the governor of a battleground state (in fact, Kansas is probably as red as you can get) but this actually seems to work in Sebelius's favor. She's a popular governor of a red state who, unlike many other Democrats from red states, is actually quite liberal. She was also one of Obama's early endorsers (having endorsed Obama the day after giving the response to Bush's State of the Union a few days before Super Tuesday). From Obama's standpoint, picking Sebelius probably does two things, first of all, it excites the Democratic liberal base while making Obama look like he's serious about being "post-partisan". On top of that, despite what the Clintonists (the sub-group of "feminists" who think that Clinton is the only woman qualified to be VP) want to say, women don't seem to have a problem with Obama picking a woman who is not Hillary Clinton.
Choice Three: Sen. Evan Bayh
Reasoning: Before getting too much into this, I would like to say that I don't think Obama should pick Bayh as his running mate, so don't take this to mean that I was secretly hoping for Evan Bayh to enter the Presidential race at the last minute and "save the party" (side note: I don't think ANYONE out there ever had a thought even remotely close that, lol) but there does seem to be some reason to believe that Obama is considering Evan Bayh. For one thing, Obama seems to be making a big organizing push in Indiana while McCain simply chooses to ignore it. Picking Bayh as his running mate would certainly make sense in the context of making a contest out of Indiana. Bayh could also be a way to placate PUMAs (though I have a sneaking suspicion that this isn't one of Obama's top priorities for his VP pick).
The Dark Horse Choices (not in any particular order)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ)
Gov. Ted Strickland (OH)
Sen. Jim Webb (VA)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA)
You'll notice that I've removed quite a lot of people, obviously John Edwards is off the list for reasons we don't have to discuss. I also took Hillary Clinton off the list (my main reason is that I suspect that the whole Wolfson thing feels too much like it's a power play, which tells me that Obama has decided to not pick Clinton and this was a last-ditch effort to kep Clinton in the VP game). I also think that Obama's being very specific and while Webb is still in the game, he doesn't seem to be making national security and foreign policy the major part of the convention (at least from what I'm seeing).
UPDATE: I've fixed the formatting, oh and I'd like to point out that I'm not looking at who Obama should pick as his running mate, but rather who he will pick, it's an important distinction which I think is being missed.
UPDATE II: People in the comments section are letting me know that Sebelius is slated to speak on Tuesday, that may hurt her chances for being the VP pick, but I still think she's on the short list (you can read the full list at the link to The Field.