Cross-posted at Election Inspection
Well, another Democratic contest has passed and the time has come to figure out just how Election Inspection did on the delegate count (and the popular vote). Incidentally, I don't know if I mentioned it before, but in the case of a delegate tie, I put the winner of the popular vote of the district first.
Let's start off with Indiana (totals via The Green Papers)
(CD-01) EI Projection: Obama 4, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 3, Clinton 3)
(CD-02) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 3)
(CD-03) EI Projection: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (Actual: Obama 2, Clinton 2)
(CD-04) EI Projection: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 2, Obama 2)
(CD-05) EI Projection: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (Actual: Obama 2, Clinton 2)
(CD-06) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 2)
(CD-07) EI Projection: Obama 4, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 4, Clinton 2)
(CD-08) EI Projection: Clinton 4, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 4, Obama 2)
(CD-09) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (Actual: Clinton 4, Obama 2)
(At-Large) EI Projection: Clinton 8, Obama 8 (Actual: Clinton 8, Obama 8)
(PLEO) EI Projection: Clinton 5, Obama 4 (Actual: Clinton 5, Obama 4)
(Total) EI Projection: Clinton 36, 51.7%; Obama 36, 48.3% (Actual: Clinton 38, 50.6%; Obama 34, 49.4%)
Analysis: Looks like I got the delegate counts for CD-01 and CD-09 off (in the case of CD-01, I think I overestimated the effect that Gary would have and it would appear that CD-09 was not as competitive as I might have thought), in addition it looks like I underestimated Obama's support in CD-03 and CD-05 as he won the popular votes of both districts, which seems to reflect that I overestimated Obama's delegate count in the state but underestimated his popular vote score for the state (the ironies are abound here :P )
Alright, now that we've seen Indiana, let's look at North Carolina (once again, totals via The Green Papers)
(CD-01) EI Projection: Obama 4, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 4, Clinton 2)
(CD-02) EI Projection: Obama 3, Clinton 3 (Actual: Obama 4, Clinton 2)
(CD-03) EI Projection: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (Actual: Obama 2, Clinton 2)
(CD-04) EI Projection: Obama 6, Clinton 3 (Actual: Obama 6, Clinton 3)
(CD-05) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 2)
(CD-06) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 2)
(CD-07) EI Projection: Obama 3, Clinton 3 (Actual: Obama 3, Clinton 3)
(CD-08) EI Projection: Obama 3, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 3, Clinton 2)
(CD-09) EI Projection: Obama 4, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 3, Clinton 3)
(CD-10) EI Projection: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 2)
(CD-11) EI Projection: Clinton 4, Obama 2 (Actual: Clinton 3, Obama 3)
(CD-12) EI Projection: Obama 5, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 6, Clinton 1)
(CD-13) EI Projection: Obama 5, Clinton 2 (Actual: Obama 4, Clinton 3)
(At Large) EI Projection: Obama 15, Clinton 11 (Actual: Obama 15, Clinton 11)
(PLEO) EI Projection: Obama 7, Clinton 5 (Actual: Obama 7, Clinton 5)
(Total) EI Projection: Obama 65, 58.5%; Clinton 50, 39.7%; Other/Gravel 0, 2.8% (Actual: Obama 66, 56%; Clinton 49, 41.7%; Other/Gravel 0, 2.3%)
Analysis: The ironies here are just getting ridiculous, the complete opposite of what happened in Indiana happened here. I underestimated Obama's delegate count but overestimated his popular vote total. Looks like I got carried away with CD-09 and CD-13 and underestimated Obama in CD-02, CD-11, and CD-12. Still, with all of that, my final delegate projection for North Carolina was only underestimating Obama's final delegate number by 1 delegate (I was projecting that Obama would get 101 delegates on May 6, and it would appear that I simply gave Obama one delegate too many).