Cross-posted at Election Inspection
With the primary season winding down, and only 5 contests remaining, we're finally reaching the end of the primary season and May 20 is the last day where more than 100 delegates are at stake in a single day. Now, most reasonable people (sorry Jerome and Alegre, this doesn't include you) realize that Obama is the presumptive nominee and a lot of this is just a matter of going through the motions, but that doesn't mean that I can't look at the remaining races.
By the way: I'll be posting my Kentucky delegate projection either Sunday or Monday (by the way, since the other authors of this site don't necessarily agree with my own posted projections, these are only my projections)
Now, I understand that the geniuses at ARG are predicting a really close race for Oregon, but one lesson which is universally taught over and over and over again is that ARG is a crappy pollster which, on occasion, gets lucky. If you don't believe me, take a look at South Carolina, Iowa, Connecticut, and Wisconsin (where within two days, the numbers moved by a miraculous 16 points). Oregon is going to go pretty strongly for Obama. Remember, the only polls that can get away with being outliers are the ones from good pollsters, if ARG is going against the grain, it probably means that they're wrong and everyone else is right.
Anyways, let's get to the nitty-gritty:
CD-01
Delegates at Stake: 7 (Obama 4, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District Analysis: This district contains the southwest part of Portland, plus the Northwest corner bordering Washington State. This is a very good district for Obama; well educated, affluent, disproportionately male, and young. The only thing that will stop Obama from hitting more than 60% here is that relatively high Latino vote. Although Obama isn't likely to get 64.3% here for a 5-2 split, it is possible, and if Obama is having a very good day state-wide, it could very well happen.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District Profile
District Analysis: This district seems like one which should be fairly strong for Clinton (older, less educated, less affluent, and with a reasonably high number of Latinos) which is why I'm giving this district to Clinton, but I'm also aware that, on top of the fact this district is surrounded by states and districts which Obama won pretty handily (rural Nevada, Idaho, Washington State, and Northern California), SUSA's polling shows Obama beating Clinton by 18 points in what they call "the rest of Oregon" (which I take to mean the southeastern and eastern part of the state). In addition, PocketNines (who is second only to Poblano as far as numbers are concerned) seems to believe that Obama is likely to win this district. I admit, it's very possible that I'm wrong here, but I'm erring on the side of caution and saying that Clinton will win.
Update: I understand that people think I'm being overly cautious with this district, and I understand why you think that, but I checked out a district which is reasonably similar to this one (WI-01) Obama only won that district by about 5 points, and that district was better educated, more affluent, younger, and had fewer Latinos. It's not that Obama can't win this district, it's that I believe that Clinton is more likely to win here.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 9 (Obama 5, Clinton 4)
District Profile
District Analysis: This is Northwest Portland and also contains a few small towns. Alright, Obama should be expected to win pretty handily here, but, once again, SUSA showed Obama only winning by 9 points in Portland. While I believe that Obama will easily get the 5-4 split, it's going to be a bit of a climb to get the 6-3 split, still it's not outside the realm of possibilities (and I will say that if it happens, it means that Obama will likely be getting a good 18%+ margin statewide.
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 7 -(Clinton 4, Obama 3)- (Obama 4, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District Analysis: Alright, even though this district is represented by Obama supporter Peter DeFazio (who decided not to run against Gordon Smith for Senate which annoys me to no end, but that's for another day) this is still a district which is probably more favorable to Clinton than to Obama. I'm giving the district to Clinton, but I don't discount Obama's ability to win the district himself.
Update: Ok, ok, I get the point, Eugene is here, that does change the equation, so I'll give this district to Obama.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District Analysis: At first I thought that this would be a delegate tie (with Obama winning a majority), but I actually think that Obama can pull off the 58.35% of the vote here to get 4 delegates. This district is pretty well educated, is relatively young (especially compared to CD-02 and CD-05).
Subtotal: Obama 18, Clinton 16 Obama 19, Clinton 15
At-Large: Obama 7, Clinton 5
PLEOs: Obama 3, Clinton 3
Total Delegates: Obama 28, Clinton 24 Obama 29, Clinton 23
Popular Vote: Obama 55.4%, Clinton 44.6%
UPDATE: I changed CD-04 and added some extra commentary on CD-02