Cross-posted at Election Inspection
Well, I've already done an initial delegate forcast for North Carolina, so I figure that the time is right for a look at Pennsylvania (you know, since it comes up in two days and North Carolina isn't for another two and a half weeks lol). Before getting to the meat though, I should point out that it's pretty difficult to determine how Limbaugh's Operation Chaos will end up working out (in the comments section of The Field, Al Giordano points out that there are a sizeable number of "LImbaugh Democrats" in Pennsylvania, and could easily change the delegate number (regardless of how they vote, Clinton will ultimately win the state and win more delegates). With that little warning in mind, let's look at the breakdown:
CD-01
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 5, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District Analysis: Well, this is Central and South Philadelphia, and is plurality African American (with a pretty high latino population). Obama will win this district handily, but the real question is, can Obama reach 64.3% to make 5-2? I believe he can, especially with that big rally he just held there. Of course, one variable here is whether or not Philly Mayor Nutter will be able to get out enough votes for Clinton to force down Obama's numbers, though I don't believe that Nutter will be able to do much, especially considering that he, unlike other mayors, doesn't have a strong machine.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 9 (Obama 7, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District analysis: This is Northern and Western Philadelphia, and the district make up just screams "OBAMA!!!" It's a majority-minority district, 60% African American; it's pretty well educated, 27.6% of people in the district have Bachelor's degrees or higher; and to top it all off, this is also a college town. Obama will have no problem getting 61.2% for a 6-3 split and should get the 72.3% necessary for a 7-2 split.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3 Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: You know, this is one of those districts which has me a bit torn, on the one hand, it neighbors OH-14, where Clinton only won 60% of the vote (which, for this district, would grant her only a 3-2 split), but on the other hand, this district has a lower rate of education, and that will certainly give her some added help. One other factor is the number of veterans in the district (around 12%), they already have no love for Clinton, plus with sniper-gate, it might lead to a backlash against her. Again I'm torn, but I'm going to call this district 3-2 for Clinton (basically 65% for Clinton, 5% too low for the 70% needed for 4-1).
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: This district falls just south of CD-03 and includes suburbs of Pittsburg, one thing which is of interest is that it borders OH-06, where Clinton completely destroyed Obama (70-26). The thing which makes this district different from OH-06, is that this district is better educated than the state as a whole (31% have a bachelor's degree or better). So while Clinton is likely to get over 60% of the vote, she won't get the 70% needed to get a 4-1 split.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 3, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: I mentioned above that PA-04 borders OH-06, well this district is basically the same as OH-06, slightly better educated, but in the same basic league. Clinton will easily break 62.5% to get a 3-1 split.
CD-06
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 3, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District analysis: CD-06 is one of the few even numbered congressional districts where Clinton and Obama will fight to a delegate tie. On the face of it, I would say that Obama will likely get the majority of votes here (this district contains the college town of Reading, along with Norristown, which has a relatively high African American population). Even with these advantages, it's unlikely that Obama will get 58.35% to get a 4-2 split. This is likely one of the districts which could be a sign of other things to come, if Obama breaks the 4-2 split here, it probably means he's doing quite a bit better statewide, and could be a sign of an upset win by Obama. Conversely, if Clinton wins the popular vote of this district, it probably means that she's on the way to a rout statewide.
CD-07
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 4, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District analysis: This district is, more or less, the western and northwestern suburbs of Philadelphia, and is also a pretty well educated and slightly younger than the state at large. This district also has quite a few colleges, which should give Obama enough of an advantage to win the district for a 4-3 split (even though the Representative here, Joe Sestek, supports Clinton). If Obama fails to win this district, it will be a sign that Obama has gotten routed in the state, and conservely a 5-2 split (Obama reaching 64.3%) will be a sign of him overperforming in the state as a whole.
CD-08
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 4, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District analysis: PsiFighter37 of Daily Kos wrote out an excellent initial rundown (and follow-up) of the Pennsylvania primary (even though there are a few districts where I disagree with him). This is the place where I probably agree with him most, so I'll just let him say it:
The last of the suburban Philadelphia districts, represented by Obama backer and Iraqi war veteran Patrick Murphy, also looks to be good for Obama. Again, Obama's performance will likely depend upon the number of voters that re-registered as Democrats; Bucks County, which makes up the vast majority of the district (it also includes a sliver of Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia), had a registered GOP majority until recently - even though the district has gone to both Al Gore and John Kerry in the past two presidential elections. It also has the highest median income of PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, which likely bodes well for Obama given how primary season has played out. Ultimately, Obama will likely net the extra delegate from this district, particularly when aided by Murphy's excellent field operation in the district.
I'll also add that I don't believe this is the slam-dunk for Obama in the way CD-07 should be, there are still a significant number of blue-collar pockets in the district, even though I believe that Obama should win the district, Clinton could still beat him here.
CD-09
Delegates at stake: 3 (Clinton 2, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: Once again, PsiFighter puts it best:
In a sense, Obama is lucky that this district only has 3 delegates: it's a rural white, working-class district where he will likely perform quite poorly. It does contain Altoona, site of Obama's now-infamous bowling outing, which garnered him good local press. However, the counties in Maryland that border the district went to Clinton by wide margins. It'll be an easy 2-1 split in her favor.
CD-10
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 3, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: See CD-05 above.
CD-11
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: This is your classic blue-collar district, identical to CD-05 and CD-10. On top of that, the Rodham family has strong ties in Scranton, Clinton will easily win this district with over 70% of the vote and get a 4-1 split.
CD-12
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District analysis: Pennsyltucky here we come! One of the reasons why Clinton is widely expected to win Pennsylvania is due to how many of these districts are in Pennsylvania. On top of that, Clinton has the backing of Rep. John Murtha which basically guarantees that Clinton will easily win 70% here and get a 4-1 split. In fact, this district is so favorable to Clinton, that I can say if Obama were to somehow keep it within a 3-2 split, it would mean that Obama has won the state.
CD-13
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 4, Clinton 3)
District Profile
District analysis: This CD is probably the one with the most variables, and as such, it's difficult to decide who will win the majority of delegates here. This district is as educated as CD-08, with a slightly higher number of blue-collar workers. This district is also represented by a Clinton supporter (Allyson Schwartz) making it seem more likely that Clinton would win the extra delegate. The big difference here is that it has twice as many African Americans as CD-08, that's why I'm giving this district to Obama.
CD-14
Delegates at stake: 7 (Clinton 4, Obama 3)
District Profile
District analysis: This district is the city of Pittsburgh and it's suburbs, and I would like to say that this is the definition of a "swing" district. On the one hand, this district has a relatively high African American population (24%) has a reasonably high level of education (25%) (MS-01, which has a slightly higher number of African Americans and a significantly lower rate of education only barely went for Clinton). On the other hand, unlike Mississippi, there are a significant number of Pennsylvania Democrats who are blue-collar whites (let me put this in perspective, according to exit polls, John Kerry only got 14% of whites in Mississippi, while in Pennsylvania, Kerry won 45% of whites), and Pittsburgh signifies this relationship. There are more blue-collar workers here than in Philadelphia, plus unlike Philly, Pittsburgh's mayor has a pretty strong machine (Mayor Luke Ravenstahl has endorsed Hillary Clinton). With all this in mind, Clinton is more likely than not to win this district, getting the 4-3 split, but that doesn't mean that Obama couldn't win the district either.
CD-15
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Bordering New Jersey, this district contains, among others, Allentown and Northampton. The district is about the same as the state at large, except it has a smaller African American population and a fairly large latino population. Clinton will get the 3-2 split (but will fall about 10 points short of the 70% needed for a 4-1 split).
CD-16
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Not all that much to say here, neither candidate has enough of an advantage to win a 3-1 split, though I'd probably say that Clinton will win a majority of votes here.
CD-17
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: Well, here's another of the Pennsyltucky districts which are part of Clinton's base. This is a district which is really hard for me to decide, on the one hand it is incredibly similar to OH-06, where Hillary Clinton won 70% of the vote, which should suggest that she'll easily break 62.5% for a 3-1 split, but there's some mitigating factors at work here. First of all, thanks to the Reading suburbs, this district has a higher education rate than OH-06, on top of that, there are three times as many African Americans here than in OH-06 and there is a higher median income here than in other Pennsyltucky districts. It's hard to say, but I will venture a guess and say that Obama will be able to keep Clinton below 62.5% and maintain a delegate tie.
CD-18
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: This district is basically a better educated CD-03 (which I also project Clinton winning 3-2), which means that while Obama will do better here than there, it won't be enough to win a majority of delegates.
CD-19
Delegates at stake 4 (Clinton 2, Obama 2)
District Profile
District analysis: For the final district, PsiFighter, once again, has the best description:
District 19 is in south-central PA and borders Maryland counties where Obama performed well. While the demographics favor Clinton (middle-class white votes), I don't anticipate either side performing well enough to earn the 3-1 delegate split - at least from what I can tell. There aren't any indications that lead me to believe that Clinton will be able to get over the 62.5% threshold, but it's possible.
District Level Total: Clinton 54, Obama 49 (Clinton+5)
As it stands right now, I'm going to operate under the presumption that state-wide, it's going to be Clinton 56 Obama 44 (+/-1 for each candidate) (although I do think that Obama will ultimately get under 10%, he has yet to get over 45%, so I'm going to operate under the presumption that he doesn't get that far), so the state-wide delegate totals will be:
At-large: Clinton 20, Obama 15
PLEOs: Clinton 11, Obama 9
Grand Total: Clinton 85, Obama 73 (Clinton +12)
(Final Note)
This delegate projection also presumes a margin of error of anything between Clinton netting 4 fewer delegates than projected (83-75) to Clinton netting 12 more delegates (91-67).