I haven't seen any discussions on here specifically dealing with how Obama might be coming across in the state, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents. To give some background. While not a Pittsburgh native, I've lived here for three years now. In addition, my extended family is from Eastern PA (Bucks County) so I know that side of the state as well...
First off, let's look at my home...
I don't think most people who aren't from Pittsburgh think much of anything about it. I know, growing up in New England, I knew it by name and little else - just thought of it as some city in the middle of nowhere. To the extent it is covered in the mainstream press, it's referred to as "hardscrabble," which means "someplace economically I'm glad I don't live."
But I've found since moving here it's a far more complex city than my initial, very vague perceptions. The steel-mills have largely closed up shop, and the air quality has improved as a result. Like many regions of the country, medical care and finance are the major job growth machines, along with a venture capital tech industry associated with the strong engineering school of Carnegie Mellon University. It's also become somewhat of an artist haven, as it's ridiculously cheap to live here. I bought my house for only $55,000!
Anyway, my personal feeing is Obama will win the city itself, for the following reasons.
- The city is 27% African-American. In every state with an African-American population this high, Obama has won. African-American neighborhoods include most of the near North Side, East Liberty, the Hill, Garfield, and Homewood.
- Pittsburgh has a number of large Universities. Pitt is by far the most prominent, but they also include CMU, Duquense, Carlow, and Chatham, just to name the big ones.
- Pittsburgh has upscale neighborhoods which would tend to lean to lean towards Obama, such as Shadyside, and increasingly South Side. The big boy out here is Squirrel Hill, which is also mainly Jewish. I don't know where Squirrel Hill will fall here, as Jewish voters have voted differently in different states. It's a neighborhood which has been the locus of a lot of resistance to the party machine in the city however, so many people may be supporting Obama just because the Mayor (who isn't well liked in the East End) is supporting Clinton.
On the whole, I think these three elements counteract Hillary's advantages in the city: machine support, working class whites, and older voters. I live in a neighborhood in transition with a large number of working-class whites - neighbors who tell me things like "the neighborhood was great until the black kids started causing trouble." I have seen a few Obama signs, but no Hillary signs. I have heard people talking about Obama on the bus, but not Clinton. I have seen one Clinton sticker, and dozens of Obama buttons. Maybe there is a silent majority in the city, but my gut instinct is that most of the younger (meaning under 55) working-class white voters around here won't turn out, and Obama will win the city by at least 10 points.
If Obama wins the city, he'll probably win the 14th congressional district as well. PA-14 was gerrymandered by the Republican state government to include the most democratic-leaning parts of Allegheny county. As a result, it includes all of the city and all of the outlying areas of the county with a substantial African-American population, including Braddock, Homestead, Rankin, and Wilkinsburg, and to a lesser extent places like Duquesne, Penn Hills, Swissvale, McKeesport, and Clairton. The African-American percentage for the district at large is slightly smaller overal - around 24%. The overall numbers should be closer, because excepting the Regent Square area most of the majority white areas of the district outside of the City are very downscale - the district was gerrymandered in such a way that the more upscale parts of the county, like Fox Chapel and Mt. Lebanon, were excluded. The bottom line though is the City makes up half the population of the district, and will probably make up more than half of turnout due to better GOTV, so Obama winning the extra delegate here is fairly doable.
Though it's meaningless, Obama could very well win the county if he wins PA-14. Most of the outer parts of the county are wealthier and more professional - groups Obama has done well in. So he'd get another little spangle on the neat CNN maps. Obama stands no chance of winning the surrounding counties though. None whatsoever.
I'm less of an expert on the rest of the state, but I should say I don't expect Obama to win - I expect him to lose by around 5%. He'll do well in Philly, and he'll end up carrying Centre County (Penn State) and Pittsburgh. But the Philly suburbs are a double-edged sword as I see it. He'll certainly do better there than he will do statewide. My gut instinct is he'll carry Bucks and Delaware, but lose Chester and Montgomery. The issue I see is the emerging democratic majority in this region are moderate, pro-choice women, who are one of Hillary's natural bases. I don't think he can overcome this and win the state unless he makes huge inroads with socially conservative men in "the T"